Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) Share Price Update: Data Breach Explained, New US Contracts and 2026 Stock Forecast

Published: 4 December 2025

Pro Medicus share price today

Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME), the $27‑billion Australian healthcare imaging software group, is trading around A$253–255 per share in Thursday trade, slightly lower on the session after the company confirmed details of an isolated cybersecurity incident. ^[1]

Over the past 12 months, PME has traded between roughly A$162 and A$336, with the July 2025 peak marking an all‑time high and the April low coming after a broader tech sell‑off. ^[2] Despite the pull‑back from those highs, the stock remains well above its early‑2024 levels and still prices in substantial growth.

Today’s news flow is dominated by three themes:

Cybersecurity update – confirmation of a July data breach limited to a single email inbox.
New US contracts – a fresh A$25m BayCare deal and a A$44m Advanced Radiology Management contract.
Valuation and forecasts – analysts still expect double‑digit growth, but from a very expensive base.

1. What happened today: Pro Medicus data breach clarified

Pro Medicus this morning released an ASX announcement titled “PME Response to speculation” after media and legal websites highlighted a data breach affecting its US subsidiary, Visage Imaging. ^[3]

According to the company:

An unauthorised third party accessed a single Pro Medicus email inbox in July 2025. ^[4]
External cybersecurity experts were engaged immediately; the mailbox was secured and the incident contained. ^[5]
A detailed investigation concluded the activity was isolated to that one mailbox, with no access to client systems, patient data or other Pro Medicus products and databases. ^[6]
The analysis suggests personal data for about 100 current and former employees may have been accessed; all of those individuals have been informed. ^[7]
The company reports no financial loss, no operational impact and no evidence that material or commercially sensitive information was accessed. ^[8]

Media coverage and legal‑industry sites have framed the incident as part of a broader wave of healthcare data breaches, with at least one US law firm advertising investigations into the Visage Imaging incident. ^[9]

Market reaction

According to Reuters, PME shares fell as much as 1.7% intraday to about A$249.95 after the announcement, before recovering some ground. ^[10]

Local investor commentary from outlets such as Kalkine Media and The Motley Fool has emphasised that the breach appears operationally contained and does not involve client or patient data, but it nonetheless adds a new risk factor investors must monitor: cyber resilience in a company that hosts sensitive clinical imaging in the cloud. ^[11]

2. New US deal: A$25m BayCare Open Archive contract

Today’s cybersecurity update comes just three days after Pro Medicus announced another sizeable US win: a A$25 million, seven‑year Visage 7 Open Archive deal with BayCare, a major health system in Florida. ^[12]

Key details of the BayCare contract include: ^[13]

Value and term: A minimum of A$25m over seven years.
Scope: Adds the Visage 7 Open Archive product to BayCare’s existing Visage 7 Viewer and Workflow deployment signed in February 2025, effectively turning BayCare into a full‑stack Visage customer.
Cloud rollout: BayCare’s existing imaging archive will be migrated into a cloud‑based Visage environment, with a targeted go‑live in Q1 2026.
Model: A transaction‑based licensing structure, giving Pro Medicus upside if imaging volumes grow.
Strategic angle: BayCare is one of Florida’s largest integrated delivery networks (IDNs), and winning full‑stack IDN deals is central to Pro Medicus’ US strategy.

Commentary from Proactive Investors highlights that archive systems are often the last piece US hospitals are willing to move to the cloud, so the BayCare decision is an important signal of customer trust in both performance and uptime. ^[14]

3. More momentum in private radiology: A$44m Advanced Radiology Management contract

On 17 November 2025, Pro Medicus announced a five‑year, A$44m contract with US‑based Advanced Radiology Management (ARM), a remote‑reading radiology group. ^[15]

From the ASX release and subsequent coverage: ^[16]

The deal is for Pro Medicus’ Visage 7 Enterprise Imaging Platform, including the core Viewer, delivered entirely in the cloud.
Revenue is again on a transaction‑based model with potential upside as ARM’s reading volumes grow.
Implementation planning has begun, with go‑live targeted for late Q2 2026.
CEO Dr Sam Hupert pointed to the global radiologist shortage and argued that Visage improves radiologist efficiency “within hours” of go‑live, positioning the platform as a tool to combat burnout and workload pressure.

The ARM agreement is part of a deliberate push into the private US radiology market, alongside earlier deals with Duly Health (A$30m, seven years) and Lucid Health (A$40m, seven years), as highlighted in Pro Medicus’ 2025 AGM presentation. ^[17]

4. FY25 scorecard: record revenue, margins and contracts

Underpinning all of this is a very strong FY25 result for the year to 30 June 2025, released in August. ^[18]

Headline numbers:

Revenue: A$213.0m, up 31.9% year‑on‑year. ^[19]
Net profit after tax: A$115.2m, up 39.2%. ^[20]
Underlying EBIT: A$157.7m, up about 40%, with EBIT margins around 74%, reflecting very high software economics. ^[21]
Cash and financial assets: A$210.7m at year‑end, up 35.5%, and the company remains debt‑free. ^[22]
Dividend: Final dividend of 30 cents per share, fully franked, roughly a 36–38% increase on the prior year’s final payment. ^[23]

Contract wins were equally striking. Across FY25, Pro Medicus signed seven major contracts worth approximately A$520m, alongside two large renewals totaling around A$130m and various smaller upgrades. ^[24]

These included:

The landmark A$330m, 10‑year Trinity Health full‑stack contract announced in late 2024. ^[25]
A roughly A$170m, 10‑year UCHealth deal combining a unified imaging platform and cardiology. ^[26]
Additional wins with Duly Health, Lucid Health and University of Iowa Health Care, plus renewals like FMOLHS (Franciscan Missionaries of Our Lady Health System). ^[27]

The picture is clear: Pro Medicus is growing off a base of long‑dated, sticky SaaS‑style contracts, largely in North American hospital and IDN markets.

5. How expensive is PME? Valuation and broker forecasts

Strong numbers have not come cheap. By late November, multiple data providers were flagging Pro Medicus as one of the most richly valued stocks on the ASX. Ts2 Tech+1

Based on prices around A$262–263 in late November 2025, TS2 and other market data sources estimate roughly: Ts2 Tech+2Bell Potter+2

Market capitalisation: ~A$27.2bn.
Trailing P/E: about 230–236x.
Forward P/E: roughly 170x, using FY26 earnings estimates.
EV/EBITDA: around 155–160x.

Those multiples are high even compared with fast‑growing global software names, and far above the broader ASX tech and healthcare sectors. Ts2 Tech+1

Broker research: Bell Potter

In a detailed 11 November 2025 note, Bell Potter upgraded PME from Hold to Buy, retaining a 12‑month price target of A$320. ^[28]

Its published forecasts (June year‑end) include: ^[29]

Revenue: A$212.9m in FY25 rising to A$283m in FY26, A$359m in FY27 and A$447.6m in FY28.
Underlying NPAT: A$115.2m in FY25, then A$157m (FY26), A$202.7m (FY27), A$257m (FY28).
EPS growth: around 36–29% per year from FY26–FY28.
EBITDA margins: projected to climb towards 80%.

Bell Potter acknowledges the valuation is demanding but argues that the revenue targets are realistic given contract momentum and the ramp‑up of recent wins such as Trinity, UCHealth and now BayCare and ARM. ^[30]

Consensus price targets

Other data providers paint a similar picture of optimistic but divided analyst opinion:

The Financial Times/Markit Digital tally shows 13 analysts with a median 12‑month target of about A$325.82, a high of A$350 and a low of A$290 – implying roughly 28% upside from a last price near A$254.33. ^[31]
Fintel’s compilation puts the average one‑year target around A$333, with estimates ranging from roughly A$293 to A$368. ^[32]
TS2’s November summary, drawing on Investing.com and other platforms, also cites an average target in the A$325–326 range, with a consensus rating leaning towards Buy. Ts2 Tech+1

In short, most professional analysts still see upside over the next year, but often pair bullish ratings with explicit warnings about valuation risk.

6. Bull vs bear case for Pro Medicus in late 2025

Bull case: why growth investors still like PME

Supporters of PME tend to focus on a consistent set of points: ^[33]

Contract momentum: Seven large FY25 wins worth about A$520m, two major renewals worth A$130m, and now another A$69m‑plus of minimum‑value US contracts (BayCare + ARM) early in FY26.
US focus and runway: Around 90% of revenue already comes from North America, yet PME has penetrated only a fraction of the US hospital and IDN market. Long‑tenor contracts provide high visibility over future revenue.
“Full‑stack” positioning: Hospitals increasingly adopt the full suite – viewer, archive, workflow and sometimes cardiology – raising switching costs and deepening customer lock‑in.
Cloud and AI leverage: Visage 7 is built as a cloud‑native platform with very high performance, which positions Pro Medicus to integrate third‑party or in‑house AI tools and charge per‑study fees as radiology AI matures.
Balance sheet strength and discipline: With more than A$200m in cash, no debt, modest capex and a history of organic growth rather than large M&A, the company has substantial financial flexibility. Buy‑back activity in November reinforced signals of board confidence. ^[34]

Bear case: what worries sceptics

Sceptics don’t usually challenge the quality of the business; they worry about what is already priced in. Common bear arguments include: Class Action U+4Ts2 Tech+4Market Index+4

Extreme valuation: At 150–200x earnings and well over 100x EV/EBITDA on some metrics, even a small slowdown in contract wins, margins or implementation could trigger a sharp de‑rating.
Customer concentration: A relatively small set of very large US health systems (Trinity, UCHealth, BayCare and others) accounts for a large share of current and future revenue. Any disruption to a flagship contract or renewal could be material.
Competitive intensity: Global imaging and healthcare IT giants continue to invest heavily in AI‑enabled platforms. Pro Medicus must keep a clear performance edge to justify premium pricing and avoid price competition.
Macro risk: High‑multiple growth stocks are sensitive to interest‑rate and sentiment shifts. If bond yields or risk aversion rise again, PME’s multiple could compress even if operational metrics stay strong.
Cybersecurity and regulatory overhang: The July email breach appears contained, but it highlights how quickly security issues can become legal and reputational risks, especially when US class‑action firms are actively marketing investigations.

7. What today’s news means for the Pro Medicus share price

From a fundamental perspective, today’s data‑breach clarification doesn’t change the core financial story:

No evidence of patient or client system compromise.
No reported operational disruption or financial loss.
Contracts, pipeline and rollout timelines for BayCare, ARM and other customers remain unchanged. ^[35]

However, for a stock that trades on extraordinary expectations, the incident matters in three ways:

Risk perception: Investors will now factor in a (small) premium for cybersecurity and legal‑exposure risk, particularly as Pro Medicus builds out more cloud‑hosted archives and touches more sensitive data. ^[36]
Governance scrutiny: Regulators and hospital clients will look closely at how the company hardens its controls, audits third‑party vendors and manages disclosures. The quick engagement of external experts and formal notifications to authorities will be seen as positives. ^[37]
Volatility at the margin: With the share price already down from its July peak and broader tech sentiment fragile, even limited‑impact incidents can amplify short‑term swings – which is what today’s 1–2% dip reflects. ^[38]

Looking forward, key catalysts for PME over the next 6–12 months include: ^[39]

The FY26 interim results, expected around February 2026, which will show early contributions from newly signed US contracts.
Progress updates on the BayCare archive migration and ARM rollout.
Any additional “full‑stack” wins out of the RSNA 2025 sales pipeline and broader US IDN market.
Ongoing newsflow around cybersecurity and any follow‑up from legal investigations.

8. Bottom line

As of 4 December 2025, Pro Medicus remains one of the highest‑quality – and highest‑priced – growth stocks on the ASX:

Operationally, the company is delivering: record FY25 numbers, expanding US market share, and new multi‑year contracts with major health systems like BayCare and Advanced Radiology Management. ^[40]
Financially, margins and cash generation are exceptional, and the balance sheet is clean. ^[41]
On valuation, however, PME is still priced as a category‑defining compounder, with consensus targets implying more upside but leaving little room for error. ^[42]
Today’s data‑breach update looks manageable in scope but serves as a reminder that cybersecurity – not just contracts and AI – is now central to the investment thesis.

References

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