Mortgage Refinance Rates Today (December 4, 2025): What Redfin’s ‘Great Housing Reset’ Means for Homeowners

Published December 4, 2025

Mortgage and refinance rates are starting December parked in the low‑to‑mid 6% range, but the story doesn’t stop there. A fresh forecast from Redfin, new daily rate reports from Fortune, Bankrate, NerdWallet and others, and growing expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut are all reshaping what refinancing could look like in 2026. ^[1]

Here’s what’s happening with refinance rates today, what Redfin’s 2026 prediction actually says, and how all of this fits into the broader housing and economic outlook.

Key takeaways

30‑year fixed refinance rates today are sitting roughly in the mid‑6% range, with Fortune putting the average around 6.24%, while Bankrate’s national 30‑year refi APR is higher at 6.75% because it includes fees and points. ^[2]
Purchase mortgage rates are slightly lower than refinance rates. NerdWallet, using Zillow data, shows an average 30‑year fixed purchase APR of about 6.02% and a 15‑year fixed around 5.48% today. ^[3]
Redfin’s new 2026 forecast calls for a “Great Housing Reset,” with the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.3% next year, down from about 6.6% in 2025, and a more than 30% jump in refinance volume as millions of homeowners finally move off rates above 6%. ^[4]
Market watchers expect more Fed easing. Mortgage rates are near their 2025 lows after two Fed cuts this year, and traders are assigning high odds to another reduction at the December 10 meeting. ^[5]
Refinancing decisions are getting more nuanced. With average 30‑year refi rates around 6.2–6.7%, the math may work for borrowers who still carry mortgages in the high‑6s, 7s or 8s—but likely not for homeowners who locked in pandemic‑era rates below 4%. ^[6]

Where refinance and mortgage rates stand on December 4, 2025

Several major rate trackers released fresh numbers for today, and they all point to the same basic picture: refinance rates are still higher than purchase rates, but both are well below their 2025 peaks and only drifting modestly from day to day.

Today’s average refinance rates

Fortune’s national refi snapshot
Fortune’s “Current refi mortgage rates report for Dec. 4, 2025” pegs the average 30‑year fixed refinance rate at about 6.24%, based on data from a large real‑estate marketplace. ^[7]
Bankrate’s APR‑based view
Bankrate’s dedicated refinance page shows that the national average 30‑year fixed refinance APR is 6.75% and the 15‑year refi APR is 6.18% as of Thursday, December 4. ^[8] The gap between Fortune’s 6.24% and Bankrate’s 6.75% reflects methodology: one is quoting a plain interest rate, while the other is quoting APR, which folds lender fees and discount points into the cost.
Lender examples: sub‑6% is possible for some borrowers
Rate sheets from major lenders underline just how wide real‑world pricing can be. Rocket Mortgage, for example, is advertising a 30‑year VA loan around 5.99% and a 30‑year jumbo fixed around 5.75% for well‑qualified borrowers as of today—though those quotes come with points and specific borrower assumptions attached. ^[9] The takeaway: today’s “headline” refi average in the mid‑6s masks a wide distribution. Strong credit, plenty of home equity, and specialized products (VA, jumbo, etc.) can still unlock rates starting with a “5,” even as the national average sits higher.

Today’s purchase mortgage rates

Refinance borrowers usually pay a small premium over purchase borrowers, and today is no exception.

National averages (NerdWallet/Zillow)
NerdWallet’s national index, powered by Zillow data, shows: ^[10]
- 30‑year fixed: ~6.00% rate / 6.02% APR
- 15‑year fixed: ~5.45% rate / 5.48% APR
- 5‑year ARM: ~6.12% rate / 6.67% APR
These figures confirm that buying with a 30‑year fixed today is typically slightly cheaper than refinancing into one, and that shorter‑term fixed loans still offer meaningful interest savings if you can handle the higher payment.
State‑level snapshots
State‑specific NerdWallet pages tell a similar story. In Washington, for example, 30‑year fixed purchase APRs average about 5.97%, while 15‑year loans run around 5.51%. In Rhode Island, the 30‑year sits closer to 6.15% APR, with a 15‑year in the mid‑5s. ^[11]

How today compares with recent weeks

Today’s numbers don’t exist in a vacuum. The early‑December level is part of a broader down‑then‑flat pattern that’s been building for months.

From late‑2024 highs to late‑2025 plateau

Weekly averages point to a gentle drift downward.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30‑year fixed at about 6.23% and the 15‑year at 5.51% for the week ending November 26, 2025—slightly lower than the prior week and well below the 7%+ levels seen earlier in the year. ^[12]
Fortune’s refi series shows similar slippage.
Fortune’s November 17 refi report had the 30‑year fixed refinance around 6.30%, meaning today’s 6.24% is a modest but real improvement over the past couple of weeks. ^[13]
Day‑by‑day, movement has been small.
Forbes’ Current Mortgage Refinance Rates: December 3, 2025 put the 30‑year fixed refinance at about 6.35% yesterday, only slightly above today’s Fortune figure. ^[14] CBS News, drawing on Zillow data, reported that as of December 3 the average 30‑year purchase rate was 5.99%, while the 30‑year refinance rate was about 6.70%, with 15‑year options in the mid‑5s. ^[15]

“Lower than last year, but stalled recently”

Yahoo Finance’s explainer, “When will mortgage rates go down significantly? This week’s decreases are relatively small,” argues that although rates are notably lower than a year ago, recent declines have been modest and uneven—more of a gentle glide than a cliff‑like drop. ^[16]

And Bankrate’s latest weekly analysis notes that mortgage rates are now near some of their lowest levels of the year, after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate twice in 2025 (in September and October), but adds that day‑to‑day moves are being driven more by bond‑market sentiment than by Fed meetings alone. ^[17]

Redfin’s 2026 forecast: the “Great Housing Reset” and refi boom

The other big storyline shaping refinance decisions this week comes from Redfin’s newly released 2026 housing outlook, dramatically titled “Welcome to the Great Housing Reset.” ^[18]

Key points from Redfin’s new forecast

In its December 2 forecast, Redfin says 2026 will mark the start of a long, slow recovery in the housing market, rather than a sudden crash or overnight affordability fix. Highlights include: ^[19]

Mortgage rates: low‑6s, not the 3% era
- Redfin expects the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate to average about 6.3% for all of 2026, down from an estimated 6.6% average in 2025.
- The company sees mortgage rates staying in the low‑6% range as a weaker labor market pushes the Fed to cut rates, but lingering inflation risk keeps policymakers from slashing aggressively.
Home prices and sales
- Home prices are forecast to rise about 1% year‑over‑year in 2026—essentially flat after adjusting for inflation.
- Existing‑home sales are expected to rise roughly 3%, to an annual pace of around 4.2 million. That’s an improvement, but still far below the ultra‑hot pandemic era.
Refinancing and home‑equity tapping
- Redfin projects refinance volume will jump more than 30% in 2026, to around $670 billion in loans.
- About 20% of mortgaged homeowners now have rates above 6%, making them prime candidates to refinance if 30‑year rates drift down into the low‑6s or high‑5s.
- The typical homeowner had roughly $181,000 in untapped home equity by mid‑2025, leaving plenty of room for cash‑out refis and HELOCs.

Independent commentators have noted that Redfin’s rate call is intentionally conservative. The Truth About Mortgage points out that Freddie Mac currently puts 30‑year fixed rates around 6.23% and Mortgage News Daily around 6.30%, effectively implying that Redfin expects rates over the next year to stay very close to where they are right now. ^[20]

Fed policy, bond markets and even 50‑year mortgages

Rate forecasts only matter if we understand what might push them higher or lower. Right now, everything from Fed policy to unemployment to political proposals is in the mix.

Fed cuts already in the pipeline—and maybe more

Bankrate notes that the Fed has already cut rates twice this year, and that mortgage rates are responding more to bond‑market expectations of future cuts than to the Fed’s formal announcements. ^[21]
Inman, citing the Mortgage Bankers Association and macroeconomic research group Pantheon Macroeconomics, reports that:
- Purchase loan applications hit a 2025 high in the week ending November 28, up 3% week‑over‑week and 17% year‑over‑year.
- 30‑year mortgage rates hit a 2025 low of about 6.12% on October 28 before bouncing on Fed comments.
- The CME FedWatch tool recently put the odds of a December 10 rate cut near 90%, and Pantheon expects the Fed to reduce short‑term rates by about one full percentage point between late 2025 and 2026 in a series of quarter‑point moves. ^[22]

That outlook lines up with Redfin’s assumption that mortgage rates ease slowly, not dramatically, over the next year.

Why a Treasury adviser says we may not need 50‑year mortgages

One of the more eye‑catching headlines this week came from Reuters: “Lower interest rates would likely eliminate the need for 50‑year mortgage, US Treasury adviser says.” ^[23]

At the Reuters NEXT conference in New York, Joseph Lavorgna, counselor to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, argued that:

Proposals for 50‑year mortgages are mainly a response to high rates forcing up monthly payments.
If the Fed were more aggressive in cutting rates, overall borrowing costs—including mortgage rates—could fall enough that such ultra‑long loans become unnecessary.
He criticized the Fed’s approach as too slow and uneven, saying lower policy rates would help housing and other rate‑sensitive sectors.

In plain English: if the Fed really leans into rate cuts and inflation keeps cooling, the market may be able to deliver more affordable 30‑year and 15‑year loans without stretching terms out to half a century.

What today’s rate environment means if you’re thinking about refinancing

With all this data and forecasting, the real question for homeowners is simple: refinance now, or wait and see?

While the right answer depends on your personal situation, today’s news flow suggests a few practical guideposts.

1. Check how far your current rate is from today’s offers

CBS News, using Zillow data, reports that as of December 3: ^[24]

Average 30‑year purchase rate: 5.99%
Average 30‑year refinance rate: 6.70%
Average 15‑year refinance rate: 5.56%

If your existing mortgage is still in the 7–8% range, today’s mid‑6s refi offers could lower your monthly payment and overall interest significantly, especially if you’re not planning to move soon.

On the other hand, if you locked in a loan at 3–4% during the pandemic, even Redfin’s “Great Housing Reset” scenario doesn’t bring rates anywhere near those levels. In that case, a traditional rate‑and‑term refinance probably won’t make sense unless you have a special goal (like removing a co‑borrower or changing loan type).

2. Consider shorter terms and cash‑out carefully

Shorter terms (like 15‑year fixed loans) are still priced much lower than 30‑year loans—often around a half‑percentage point to a full percentage point cheaper—but the monthly payment jump is substantial. Today’s averages near the mid‑5s for 15‑year loans illustrate the trade‑off: less interest over time in exchange for a steeper monthly bill. ^[25]
Cash‑out refis look tempting when you have six figures of equity, as Redfin estimates many homeowners do, but borrowing at 6‑plus percent to fund renovations or debt consolidation is still expensive money by historical standards. ^[26]

In many cases, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or a smaller home‑equity loan might be a more flexible way to tap equity while leaving an ultra‑cheap first mortgage intact.

3. Balance “wait for lower rates” vs. “take what you can get”

Redfin, Bankrate and Pantheon Macroeconomics are all essentially saying the same thing in different ways:

Rates are likely to drift lower over the next year or two, but not crash. ^[27]
No major forecaster is predicting a quick return to 3% 30‑year mortgages.

That means:

If a refinance today barely saves you money, waiting to see how 2026 plays out could be sensible.
If you can meaningfully cut your rate now—say, from something in the high‑6s or 7s down into the low‑6s or high‑5s—and expect to stay in the home long enough to break even on closing costs, locking in may be worth exploring rather than trying to time the absolute bottom.

The bottom line: steady today, slow reset tomorrow

On December 4, 2025, mortgage and refinance rates are neither sky‑high nor truly cheap:

Refis are averaging somewhere between the low‑ and upper‑6s, depending on how you measure and which lenders you check. ^[28]
Purchase rates are often just under 6% for 30‑year loans and in the mid‑5s for 15‑year terms, based on national and state‑level data. ^[29]

The new Redfin forecast and surrounding analysis don’t promise a dramatic plunge in borrowing costs. Instead, they point to a gradual “reset” in which rates edge down, wages outpace prices, and refinance volume climbs as homeowners with 6%‑plus mortgages slowly get a chance to trade into slightly more affordable loans. ^[30]

For borrowers, that means today’s decision is less about chasing a once‑in‑a‑lifetime low and more about running the numbers:

How big is the gap between your current rate and today’s offers?
How long will you keep the home?
Are you trying to lower the payment, pay the loan off faster, or tap equity?

Given the complexity—and the fact that rates can move quickly as new economic data and Fed decisions hit—it’s wise to compare quotes from multiple lenders and talk with a trusted mortgage or financial professional before pulling the trigger. Nothing in this article is personalized financial advice, but it should give you a clearer picture of where things stand as of December 4, 2025—and why 2026 might finally feel like a turning point for refinancing.