The US stock market is entering Thursday, December 4, 2025, within touching distance of all‑time highs. After a broad advance on Wednesday led by small caps, energy and financials, equity futures are trading only slightly changed as investors wait for crucial labor-market data and next week’s Federal Reserve decision, where markets are heavily pricing in another interest-rate cut. [1]
Below is a detailed look at how Wall Street is positioned today, what’s driving sentiment, and how strategists see the rest of December and 2026 shaping up.
1. Snapshot: Where the Major US Stock Indexes Stand
Wednesday’s cash close (December 3, 2025)
Major benchmarks extended their latest rebound and moved closer to record territory: [2]
- S&P 500: 6,849.72, up 0.3% (+20.35 points)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,882.90, up 0.9% (+408.44 points)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,454.09, up 0.2% (+40.42 points)
- Russell 2000 (small caps): 2,512.14, up 1.9% (+47.15 points)
Breadth was strong: roughly two‑thirds of S&P 500 constituents advanced, even as some mega‑cap tech names lagged. [3]
Position in the 2025 rally
According to a recent weekly wrap from Edward Jones, the S&P 500 is up roughly the mid‑teens in percentage terms year‑to‑date, with the Dow and Nasdaq also logging double‑digit gains as 2025 heads into its final month. [4] The same report highlights continued economic resilience, fading recession odds, and robust earnings growth as key supports for equities this year.
2. Futures Today: Cautious but Constructive Tone
US equity futures on Thursday, December 4, 2025 are showing only modest moves, reflecting a “wait‑and‑see” stance:
- S&P 500 futures: little changed to slightly lower
- Dow futures: fractionally higher
- Nasdaq futures: flat to slightly positive [5]
Live blogs from Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch and Benzinga all describe futures as broadly steady, with traders digesting Wednesday’s gains and looking ahead to this morning’s US jobless‑claims report and next week’s Fed meeting as the next catalysts. [6]
In other words, Wall Street is not rushing to chase the rally higher, but it’s also not taking profits aggressively—a classic “pause near the top” setup.
3. What Drove Yesterday’s Rally: Softer Jobs, Steady Growth
Weak ADP jobs data fuels rate‑cut optimism
The big macro story behind Wednesday’s move was a surprisingly soft private‑sector jobs report from ADP. The data showed US companies cutting a net 32,000 jobs in November—the largest drop since early 2023—driven by notable layoffs at smaller firms. [7]
While that’s unwelcome news for job seekers, markets interpreted it as evidence that the labor market is cooling just enough to give the Fed cover to cut rates again at its meeting on December 9–10. [8]
Services sector still expanding
At the same time, the ISM services index rose to 52.6 in November, marking the strongest pace of growth in nine months, with solid demand and easing price pressures. [9]
Taken together:
- Growth is slowing but still positive, especially in services.
- Labor is softening at the margins, easing wage and inflation pressures.
- Inflation metrics within the services report cooled, reinforcing the idea that the Fed can continue its gradual easing cycle. [10]
That mix—soft but not collapsing—has revived the familiar “bad news is good news” dynamic for stocks: weaker jobs data boosts rate‑cut odds, which in turn supports equity valuations.
Bond yields fall, volatility stays contained
Treasury yields slipped after the data, with the 10‑year yield dipping just below the 4.05–4.10% area before retracing slightly. [11] The VIX volatility index hovered around 16, signaling a relatively calm options market despite elevated macro uncertainty. [12]
Lower yields helped rate‑sensitive sectors and underpinned the broader rally.
4. Under the Hood: AI Chips, Retailers and Small Caps Lead
Wednesday’s advance was notable not just for how much the indexes rose, but what led the move.
AI and semiconductor “plumbing”
According to Saxo’s daily “Market Quick Take,” US stocks “extended their rebound” with leadership from AI infrastructure stocks and select retailers, even as some mega‑cap tech names lagged. [13]
Key movers included:
- Microchip Technology: surged double digits after upbeat guidance tied to data‑center and industrial demand. [14]
- Marvell Technology: jumped around 8% on a bullish outlook for AI‑related data‑center revenue. [15]
- American Eagle Outfitters: soared more than 15% on a “beat‑and‑raise” quarter. [16]
- iRobot: rocketed over 70% amid speculation about US support for robotics and automation. [17]
On the flip side, Microsoft slid about 2.5% following cautious commentary on AI monetization, underscoring that even market darlings are not immune to “prove‑it” pressures as investors scrutinize how quickly AI spending translates into profits. [18]
Small caps and cyclicals catch up
The Russell 2000’s 1.9% jump outpaced large caps by a wide margin, signaling renewed interest in domestically focused and more economically sensitive companies. [19]
A Reuters “Trading Day” recap noted that energy and financials were among the strongest sectors, each gaining more than 1%, while only utilities and tech finished lower on the day. [20]
This sector pattern—cyclicals and financials up, defensives mixed, mega‑cap tech softer—is consistent with a market that:
- Believes the Fed will ease monetary policy further;
- Sees growth slowing, but not collapsing;
- Is beginning to rotate toward broader, more value‑tilted leadership rather than relying solely on a handful of AI giants. [21]
5. Today’s Macro Focus: Jobless Claims and Factory Orders
For Thursday, December 4, 2025, the economic calendar is dominated by US labor and manufacturing data:
- Initial jobless claims (8:30 a.m. ET)
- Consensus: 220,000, up from 216,000 the prior week.
- This weekly figure offers the earliest look at how layoffs are trending. [22]
- Continuing claims
- Prior reading: 1.96 million Americans receiving ongoing unemployment benefits. [23]
- Factory orders (10:00 a.m. ET)
- Prior: +1.4%, reflecting robust demand for manufactured goods. [24]
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow update (10:30 a.m. ET)
- Current tracking estimate: 3.9% annualized real GDP growth. [25]
Markets will use these releases to gauge whether Wednesday’s weak ADP print is an outlier or part of a broader cooling trend. A modest uptick in claims, combined with still‑solid factory orders, would likely reinforce the “soft landing” narrative. A sharper deterioration, by contrast, could revive recession worries.
6. Earnings on Deck: Kroger, Dollar General, HPE, Ulta and More
Beyond macro data, corporate earnings are another key driver for US stocks today.
TipRanks’ earnings calendar highlights a busy slate of US and Canadian names reporting on December 4, 2025: [26]
- Pre‑market US highlights
- Kroger (KR) – Seen as a bellwether for grocery inflation and consumer trade‑down behavior.
- Dollar General (DG) – Discount retail trends can reveal whether lower‑income consumers are under more pressure.
- Hormel Foods (HRL) – Insight into food costs, margins and shifting consumer demand.
- Science Applications International (SAIC) – Government IT and defense spending read‑throughs.
- After‑the‑bell US highlights
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – Enterprise IT, servers and AI infrastructure demand.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – High‑margin consumer discretionary, important for gauging spending power.
- DocuSign (DOCU) – SaaS demand and corporate IT budgets.
- SentinelOne (S) – Cybersecurity spending trends.
- Stitch Fix (SFIX) and ChargePoint (CHPT) – Smaller, more volatile names that can move sharply on guidance.
Any big surprises—positive or negative—from these reports could ripple across sectors and influence how investors feel about US consumer strength, corporate IT spending and AI‑related capex as 2025 ends.
7. Fed Watch: Markets See a High Chance of a December Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 policy meeting remains the dominant macro story for the US stock market today.
Recent analysis of CME FedWatch data shows:
- Market‑implied odds of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut in December are sitting in the mid‑80s to high‑80s percent range, depending on the source and timing. [27]
Several key points have emerged from recent coverage:
- Third cut of 2025
If the Fed cuts next week, it would be the third reduction this year, continuing a gradual pivot away from the restrictive stance that dominated 2023–2024. [28] - Data‑dependent, but leaning dovish
Commentaries from banks and macro strategists emphasize that weaker job growth and easing inflation have created room for the Fed to ease without immediately stoking a renewed inflation surge. [29] - “Dots” and 2026 guidance matter as much as the cut
As TS2’s December outlook pieces and other analyses note, the real market impact may come from the Fed’s updated “dot plot” of future rate expectations and Chair Powell’s tone on how many cuts could be delivered in 2026. TechStock²+1
Put simply, equity markets are already heavily priced for a cut; the risk is that the Fed either fails to deliver or signals a slower pace of easing than investors currently expect.
8. Global Context: Europe and Asia Take Their Cues from Wall Street
Overnight, global markets largely followed Wall Street’s optimistic lead:
- Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose about 0.3%, with autos and industrials leading, as traders there also bet on a Fed rate cut and took comfort from signs of a controlled slowdown in US labor markets. [30]
- Asia: Japanese stocks advanced, while Chinese and Hong Kong shares lagged on renewed concerns about property developers and softer services data. [31]
This backdrop supports risk assets globally: a Fed that is easing, but not panicking, is typically positive for international equities, especially when the US economy is still growing above trend.
9. Strategy and Forecasts: Late-Cycle Bull or 2026 Crash Setup?
Analysts and strategists are increasingly framing today’s US stock market as a late‑cycle bull run: powerful, but more fragile.
Constructive medium‑term views
- Edward Jones argues that 2025 has showcased the resilience of both the US economy and corporate earnings, with S&P 500 profits on track to grow around double digits and margins holding near record levels. The firm sees a “constructive backdrop” for 2026, supported by lower rates, solid earnings growth and ongoing AI‑driven innovation, while warning that rich valuations demand selectivity. [32]
- A widely cited December 2025 outlook summarized by TS2.tech notes that Wall Street houses such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo see the S&P 500 reaching around 7,800 by year‑end 2026, implying roughly low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. Bank of America is more cautious, projecting around 7,100—only a few percent above today—as three straight years of strong gains leave less room for further multiple expansion. TechStock²
- A recent Morningstar valuation snapshot (via secondary reporting) suggests that the US equity market is trading only a few percent below its aggregate fair‑value estimate, with value and small‑cap segments looking more attractive than stretched mega‑cap growth names. [33]
Taken together, these views paint a picture of modest but still positive expected returns, with leadership likely rotating away from the narrow AI mega‑cap cohort toward broader, reasonably valued sectors.
Bearish warnings and crash talk
Not everyone is relaxed. A series of recent pieces from Finbold and others highlight historical valuation and technical indicators that have preceded past market downturns:
- One widely shared article warns that a particular long‑term valuation metric (drawing on past episodes such as 2000 and 2008) points to elevated risk of an S&P 500 downturn in 2026, especially after the index’s powerful run back above 6,800. [34]
- Other commentary notes that high Shiller CAPE readings, frothy investor positioning and heavy use of leverage in some hedge‑fund strategies could amplify any negative shock, even if the core economic backdrop remains decent. [35]
In short, there is a growing gap between bullish “soft‑landing” narratives and valuation‑driven caution. For now, price action still aligns with the bull story—but volatility could rise quickly if data or Fed communication surprise in the wrong direction.
10. Cross-Asset Signals: Bitcoin, Commodities and Bonds
The cross‑asset backdrop is broadly consistent with the “rate‑cuts‑are-coming” narrative:
- Bitcoin: Crypto markets have stabilized after early‑week swings, with bitcoin hovering near $93,000 according to Saxo’s macro note, as traders increasingly price in easier Fed policy and the continued growth of crypto ETFs. [36]
- Gold and silver: Both metals are consolidating after explosive moves. Gold is holding just under $4,200 per ounce, while silver recently pulled back from record highs near $59, according to commodity strategists. [37]
- US natural gas: Prices have spiked to their highest levels since 2022 amid forecasts of very cold US weather, adding another layer to the inflation and growth debate. [38]
- Treasuries: As noted earlier, the 10‑year yield is oscillating just above 4%, a level that many strategists see as compatible with continued equity strength, provided inflation expectations remain anchored. [39]
These signals, taken together, suggest loosening financial conditions with pockets of late‑cycle froth—not yet a full‑blown risk‑off pivot.
11. What Investors Are Watching Next
For anyone following “US stock market today” on December 4, 2025, several near‑term catalysts stand out:
- Today’s data: jobless claims and factory orders
- A modest rise in claims and steady orders would likely support the current soft‑landing/rate‑cut narrative.
- A sharp deterioration could undermine the earnings outlook that bullish 2026 targets rely on. [40]
- This week’s PCE inflation report
- As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE will heavily influence how aggressive policymakers feel they can be in 2026. TechStock²+1
- Fed decision and press conference (Dec. 9–10)
- Markets are focused not only on whether the Fed cuts, but also on forward guidance for 2026 and any signals around the labor market and tariffs. [41]
- S&P 500 December index reshuffle
- Scheduled announcement after the close on December 5, with implementation later in the month. Index changes can trigger short‑term volatility in names added or removed. TechStock²
- Earnings and guidance from consumer and AI‑linked names
- Reports from retailers such as Kroger and Dollar General, as well as AI‑related and enterprise IT players like HPE, DocuSign and SentinelOne, will offer fresh evidence on consumer health and tech spending heading into 2026. [42]
12. Bottom Line: A Bull Market Near the Top, With Less Room for Error
As of December 4, 2025, the US stock market sits near record highs, powered by:
- Cooling but still positive economic growth,
- Growing conviction in a December Fed rate cut, and
- A welcome broadening of leadership into small caps, cyclicals and AI “plumbing” stocks. [43]
At the same time, valuations are elevated, labor data is turning softer at the edges and 2026 forecasts are increasingly polarized, ranging from double‑digit upside scenarios to warnings about a possible correction or crash if history rhymes. Finbold+3TechStock²+3Investing.com+3
For investors and traders alike, today’s setup looks like a late‑cycle rally that is still intact but increasingly sensitive to surprises—especially around the Fed, inflation and the labor market.
Nothing in this article is personalized investment advice. All market data and forecasts cited are based on publicly available reporting as of December 4, 2025 and may change as new information emerges.
References
1. www.timesleaderonline.com, 2. abcnews.go.com, 3. www.home.saxo, 4. www.edwardjones.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.home.saxo, 8. www.timesleaderonline.com, 9. www.home.saxo, 10. www.home.saxo, 11. www.home.saxo, 12. www.home.saxo, 13. www.home.saxo, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.home.saxo, 16. www.home.saxo, 17. www.home.saxo, 18. www.home.saxo, 19. abcnews.go.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.home.saxo, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.timesleaderonline.com, 29. us.plus500.com, 30. www.bloomberg.com, 31. www.home.saxo, 32. www.edwardjones.com, 33. www.morningstar.com, 34. finbold.com, 35. finance.yahoo.com, 36. www.home.saxo, 37. www.home.saxo, 38. www.home.saxo, 39. www.home.saxo, 40. www.investing.com, 41. us.plus500.com, 42. www.tipranks.com, 43. www.home.saxo
