Ashtead Group plc Share Price Today: Buybacks, US Listing Plan and 2026 Stock Forecast

Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT), the FTSE 100 equipment rental heavyweight behind the Sunbelt Rentals brand, is trading well below its 2023 peak but remains firmly on analysts’ watchlists as investors weigh a powerful buyback programme, a pending move of its primary listing to the United States and an upcoming earnings release on 9 December 2025.

As of late morning on 4 December 2025, Ashtead Group shares were changing hands at around 4,821p, up about 2.9% on the day, yet still roughly 24% lower than a year ago. ^[1] Earlier this week, the stock closed at 4,684p on 2 December, leaving it more than 27% below its 52‑week high of 6,448p (£64.48) reached last December. ^[2]

Overlay that with flat-to-low single‑digit growth guidance, a $1.5 billion share buyback, and plans to shift the primary listing to the US in early 2026, and Ashtead has become one of the more complex – and closely followed – UK industrial stories. ^[3]

Ashtead Group share price on 4 December 2025

On the London Stock Exchange, Ashtead’s 4,821p quote at around 11:46 GMT on 4 December came with a one‑day rise of 136p (+2.9%) and a one‑year total price decline of about 24.5%. ^[4]

That rebound follows a weak start to the week:

1 December 2025: shares fell 1.28% to £47.66, underperforming a soft FTSE 100 session and sitting 26% below the 52‑week high. ^[5]
2 December 2025: the stock slid another 1.72% to £46.84, taking the gap to the high to 27.4%. ^[6]

Earlier in the year, Ashtead had traded in the low‑50s – £51.34 on 25 July and £53.62 on 16 October – but even then remained 16–20% below its peak. ^[7]

In US trading, the over‑the‑counter Ashtead ADR (ASHTY) recently changed hands around $251–258, modestly below a $265 one‑year price target cited by Zacks, implying only low single‑digit upside on that line. ^[8]

What Ashtead Group does – and why the cycle matters

Ashtead Group is a multinational equipment rental company providing everything from aerial work platforms and earth‑moving machinery to power, climate control and tools, primarily under the Sunbelt Rentals brand in North America. ^[9]

Key structural features of the business:

North America drives the story: around 92% of revenue comes from North America, where Ashtead has built roughly 11% share of a fragmented US rental market, making it the second‑largest US equipment rental company. ^[10]
Over the last decade, Ashtead has compounded revenue at about 13% per year, fuelled by bolt‑on acquisitions and a steady rollout of new “greenfield” locations. ^[11]

That business model is capital intensive but cash generative: Ashtead buys and maintains a huge rental fleet, then earns multi‑year streams of rental income and disposal proceeds. This makes interest rates and non‑residential construction in the US particularly important for its cycle.

Latest results: strong cash generation, slower growth

FY25 (year to 30 April 2025)

Ashtead’s most recent full‑year numbers show a company still highly profitable, but facing a slower top line:

Total revenue: about $10.8–10.79 billion, down roughly 0.6–1% year on year, with the decline driven mainly by weaker used equipment sales. ^[12]
Rental revenue: approximately $9.98 billion, up 3.6–4% on the prior year. ^[13]
EBITDA margin: improved to roughly 46.4%, from 45.1% a year earlier, as the mix shifted further toward recurring rental income. ^[14]
Adjusted pre‑tax profit: around $2.13 billion, slightly ahead of a ~$2.10 billion consensus. ^[15]

Cash generation remains a major support:

Near‑record free cash flow of about $1.8 billion,
$2.4 billion reinvested into the fleet and network,
Around $886 million returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in the year. ^[16]

Q1 FY26: tentative re‑acceleration

For Q1 FY26 (three months to 31 July 2025), Ashtead showed hints that growth might be stabilising:

Group rental revenue grew by about 2.4% year on year, up from 0.9% growth in the prior quarter.
Total revenue increased roughly 1.7%, versus a 3.8% decline in Q4 FY25. ^[17]
Q1 EBITDA margin slipped to 45.6% (from 46.8%), reflecting higher repairs and a larger proportion of lower‑margin ancillary revenue as a big fleet cohort comes off warranty. ^[18]

Management has described internal leading indicators – quotes, reservations, daily contract activity – as improving versus a year ago, signalling cautious optimism that local non‑residential markets may be bottoming. ^[19]

Guidance and macro backdrop: flat to 4% growth

On 17 June 2025, Ashtead guided investors to expect rental revenue growth of between flat and 4% for the fiscal year ending April 2026 – notably subdued compared with the double‑digit rates in prior years. ^[20]

The company highlighted a split in its end markets:

Pressure in US non‑residential construction as high interest rates and supply‑chain issues weigh on local project starts. ^[21]
Robust demand in “mega projects” – data centres, semiconductor plants and LNG projects – which are helping to offset that weakness. ^[22]

Despite the slower growth outlook, Ashtead’s longer‑term strategic plan, “Sunbelt 4.0”, still targets:

Revenue rising to about $15.5 billion by FY29,
Around $20 billion of capital expenditure over five years,
A higher EBITDA margin of 47–50% (vs 46.4% in FY25), driven by operating leverage and a growing Specialty segment. ^[23]

That mix of short‑term macro headwinds and long‑term structural growth is central to the current debate around Ashtead’s valuation.

US primary listing on track for early 2026

A major strategic milestone is Ashtead’s planned move of its primary listing from London to the United States.

In June 2025, shareholders approved the shift, and management has said it is on track to complete the move in the first quarter of 2026. The rationale is straightforward:

Most of Ashtead’s profit is generated in North America.
Management believes US markets offer stronger investor demand and higher valuation multiples for its peer group. ^[24]

The move continues a broader trend of UK‑listed multinationals looking to the US for deeper pools of capital. For investors, the implications include:

Potential changes to FTSE 100 index membership once the primary listing moves,
Greater liquidity and coverage in US markets, which could help narrow any valuation discount if the listing transition is well received.

Ashtead’s own financial calendar shows Q2 results scheduled for 9 December 2025, with the market expecting further detail on the timeline and mechanics of the listing switch. ^[25]

$1.5 billion share buyback: fresh purchases in early December

Alongside dividends, Ashtead is leaning heavily on share buybacks to return capital.

The company is in the middle of a $1.5 billion share repurchase programme. In the last few days alone:

On 2 December 2025, Ashtead repurchased 94,839 shares, executed via J.P. Morgan Securities. ^[26]
On 3 December 2025, it bought back a further 96,625 shares, taking additional stock into treasury. ^[27]

Both transactions were explicitly presented as actions to enhance shareholder value and optimise the capital structure, signalling continued management confidence in the long‑term story despite near‑term volatility. ^[28]

These recent purchases sit on top of the $886 million returned to investors via buybacks and dividends in the prior financial year, funded by that near‑record $1.8 billion free cash flow. ^[29]

Ashtead stock forecasts and analyst ratings for 2026

UK‑listed AHT (LSE)

Various analyst platforms show slightly different snapshots of sentiment, but they broadly cluster around mid‑teens to low‑20s percentage upside from current levels:

Financial Times consensus (14 analysts):
- Median 12‑month price target:5,501.57p,
- Range: 4,560.17p – 6,690.85p,
- Median implies about 17.4% upside from a reference price of 4,685p. ^[30]
TipRanks consensus (8 analysts, past 3 months):
- Overall rating: “Hold”,
- Average target:5,748.57p,
- Range: 4,600p – 6,600p,
- Around 20.6% upside from a last price of 4,766p. ^[31]
MarketBeat (4 analysts):
- Average price target about 5,920p,
- High 7,300p, low 4,600p,
- Implied upside of roughly 23% from a reference price of 4,820p. ^[32]

US‑traded lines (ASHTF, ASHTY)

US‑focused coverage is slightly more cautious:

RBC Capital Markets recently reiterated an “Underperform” rating on the US‑traded ASHTF depositary receipt, with an average one‑year target of $77.08, only about 7% above a recent close of $72. ^[33]
Zacks reports a single analyst target of $265 for ASHTY, implying just 2.6% upside from a $258 last close. ^[34]

Valuation models and “fair value” estimates

Beyond broker targets, several data providers publish intrinsic‑value estimates:

A recent Yahoo Finance‑linked note highlighted that one fair value model had trimmed its estimate only slightly – from roughly £58.06 to £57.25 per share – signalling a modest downgrade in sentiment rather than a wholesale reassessment. ^[35]
Simply Wall St estimates that Ashtead’s revenue could grow at about 5.3% per year and earnings at around 11.6% per year through 2028, with return on equity potentially exceeding 21% in three years. ^[36]

Those growth assumptions underpin models that, in several cases, still classify the shares as undervalued relative to long‑term discounted cash flow projections, even after the recent downgrades.

Fundamental outlook: quality compounder or late‑cycle risk?

Bullish arguments

Supporters of Ashtead Group stock tend to point to:

Structural growth in equipment rental as customers increasingly rent rather than own heavy equipment – a long‑running trend in North America. ^[37]
Exposure to mega‑project pipelines in areas like data centres, semiconductors and LNG, where multi‑year construction cycles support sustained rental demand. ^[38]
A long record of double‑digit revenue compounding, high margins and disciplined capital allocation, including attractive free cash flow and a 20‑year history of dividend payments. ^[39]
The potential for a US primary listing re‑rating, if US investors are willing to pay higher earnings multiples for a predominantly North American business. ^[40]

Bearish arguments

Sceptics counter with several concerns:

Guidance for flat to 4% rental revenue growth in FY26 underscores how sensitive Ashtead is to the US non‑residential cycle, which remains under pressure from high interest rates. ^[41]
Margins are near historical highs, leaving limited room for further expansion just as repair costs rise and ancillary revenues dilute profitability. ^[42]
Some analysts, such as RBC, see only single‑digit upside on the US lines and explicitly rate the stock “Underperform”, arguing that cyclical risk is under‑appreciated. ^[43]
The planned US listing may not automatically guarantee a higher valuation if investors remain worried about a late‑cycle construction slowdown.

Dividends, cash returns and balance sheet

Ashtead continues to return substantial cash:

The company paid a 2025 dividend of about $1.10 per share, up 9.55% on the prior year, and analysts expect a slightly lower $1.08 payout in the next fiscal year – essentially flat in real terms. ^[44]
Over the long term, Ashtead has increased or maintained its dividend for two decades, while still funding growth and acquisitions. ^[45]

Combined with the ongoing $1.5 billion share buyback, these distributions mean a high proportion of annual free cash flow is being returned to shareholders, albeit from a position of still‑manageable leverage according to most coverage.

Key dates and catalysts for investors

For anyone tracking Ashtead Group plc stock as of 4 December 2025, several upcoming events stand out:

Q2 FY26 earnings – 9 December 2025 (before market open):
Consensus will focus on whether rental revenue growth is tracking nearer the top or bottom of the 0–4% guidance range, and on any changes to capex or free‑cash‑flow expectations. ^[46]
Further details on the US primary listing:
Investors will watch for clarity on index implications, listing venue, and whether management sees any additional capital‑structure changes (for example, buybacks or debt issuance) linked to the move. ^[47]
Ongoing share repurchases:
The recent December buybacks highlight that the company is actively deploying its authorisation; further daily RNS updates on buyback volumes and prices will continue to influence per‑share metrics. ^[48]

Macro‑wise, markets will also be watching US interest‑rate expectations and data on non‑residential construction, mega‑project approvals and infrastructure spending, all of which feed directly into Ashtead’s pipeline. ^[49]

Bottom line: how Ashtead Group plc looks on 4 December 2025

Taken together, Ashtead Group on 4 December 2025 is a high‑quality, cash‑rich cyclical trading roughly one‑quarter below its recent peak, with:

Moderate near‑term growth guidance,
A significant capital‑return story through dividends and a $1.5 billion buyback,
A potentially transformational US primary listing on the horizon, and
Analyst price targets that, on average, imply mid‑teens to low‑20s percentage upside from current levels – but with meaningful disagreement between bullish and cautious houses. ^[50]