Snowflake (SNOW) Stock After Q3 Earnings: AI Megadeals, Guidance Jitters and What December 4, 2025 Means for Investors

As of December 4, 2025, Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) finds itself in a very 2025 situation: revenue is surging, AI announcements are everywhere, Wall Street is mostly bullish—yet the stock is wobbling after earnings.

Shares are trading around $265 midday, close to their recent 52‑week high near $281 and up more than 70% year‑to‑date, even after an overnight slump following the company’s latest quarterly report. ^[1]

In the last 24 hours Snowflake has:

Reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results that beat expectations
Issued Q4 and full‑year guidance that disappointed some growth‑hungry investors
Announced a $200 million multi‑year partnership with Anthropic
Highlighted a major AWS Marketplace milestone and deeper ties with NVIDIA and Accenture

Here’s how all of that fits together for Snowflake’s stock story today.

Q3 Fiscal 2026: Strong Growth and a Narrowing Loss

Snowflake’s third quarter of fiscal 2026 (three months ended October 31, 2025) was objectively strong by almost any normal SaaS standard. ^[2]

Headline numbers

Total revenue: $1.21 billion, up 29% year‑over‑year
Product revenue: $1.16 billion, also up 29% year‑over‑year
Net loss (GAAP): $293.9 million, or –$0.87 per share, an improvement from a loss of $324.2 million (–$0.98) a year ago ^[3]
Non‑GAAP EPS: about $0.35, roughly 12% above consensus estimates around $0.31 ^[4]
Non‑GAAP operating margin:11%, up from a negative margin last year ^[5]

Key operating metrics

Snowflake’s “land and expand” model is still doing its thing:

Net revenue retention:125% – existing customers spent 25% more than a year ago
Customers with >$1M in trailing 12‑month product revenue:688, up 29% year‑over‑year
Forbes Global 2000 customers:766, up 4% year‑over‑year
Remaining performance obligations (RPO):$7.88 billion, up 37% year‑over‑year ^[6]

Non‑GAAP product gross margin came in around 76%, while adjusted free cash flow margin was in the high single digits, showing the company can generate cash even as it spends heavily on AI and go‑to‑market. ^[7]

In plain terms: Snowflake is still growing quickly, still losing money on a GAAP basis, but steadily marching toward durable profitability.

Guidance: The 27% Problem and Why the Stock Slid

The selloff is not about what Snowflake just did. It’s about what investors wanted Snowflake to promise next.

For Q4 fiscal 2026, Snowflake guided to: ^[8]

Product revenue:$1.195–$1.20 billion, implying 27% year‑over‑year growth
This is above analyst estimates around $1.18 billion
But below the “AI rocket ship” narrative many shareholders had in mind (they wanted >30% growth)

Reuters captured the mood neatly: despite beating revenue expectations and raising guidance, the forecast “fell short of lofty investor expectations,” sending the stock down about 8% in extended trading to the mid‑$240s. ^[9]

Finviz and other outlets reported a similar story:

Revenue and non‑GAAP earnings beat
Operating leverage improved
Yet the stock dropped 8–9% as investors digested the reality that growth is high, but not re‑accelerating into the mid‑30s that some AI‑hype models implied. ^[10]

For the full fiscal year 2026, Snowflake now expects: ^[11]

Product revenue: about $4.446 billion, up 28% year‑over‑year
Non‑GAAP product gross margin: around 75%
Non‑GAAP operating margin: roughly 9%
Adjusted free cash flow margin: around 25%

This is still elite‑tier SaaS growth, but after a 70%+ run in the stock this year, expectations have migrated from “strong company” to “must be an AI super‑compounder.”

AI Strategy: Anthropic, AWS, NVIDIA and Snowflake Intelligence

If you just read the headline numbers, you might miss why analysts are still excited. Snowflake is aggressively trying to make itself the AI operating layer for enterprise data.

$200M Anthropic partnership and Snowflake Intelligence

On December 3, Snowflake and Anthropic announced a multi‑year, $200 million expansion of their partnership. ^[12]

Key points from Anthropic and Snowflake:

Anthropic’s Claude models (including Claude Sonnet 4.5 and Claude Opus 4.5) are being deeply integrated into Snowflake Cortex AI.
Snowflake Intelligence, an “enterprise intelligence agent,” is powered by Claude and designed to let business users query both structured and unstructured data in natural language. ^[13]
Snowflake says customers are already processing trillions of Claude tokens per month through Snowflake Cortex, and that AI‑influenced bookings are becoming a significant share of deals. ^[14]

The idea: instead of shipping data out to an external AI service, enterprises can keep sensitive information inside Snowflake’s governed data environment and run AI “agents” directly against it.

Doubling AWS Marketplace sales and deepening the cloud moat

Snowflake also highlighted a major milestone with Amazon Web Services (AWS):

Sales via AWS Marketplace exceeded $2 billion in 2025, with transaction growth doubling year‑over‑year. ^[15]

TipRanks coverage of TheFly’s note emphasized that this helps Snowflake: ^[16]

Accelerate customer adoption
Simplify procurement (one AWS bill, Snowflake included)
Scale globally with AWS as a distribution and infrastructure partner

At the same time, Snowflake announced an expanded alliance with Accenture to help large enterprises build and deploy AI workloads on Snowflake, a classic “we’ll provide the platform, you bring the consultants and delivery muscle” setup. ^[17]

NVIDIA CUDA‑X integration and GPU acceleration

On November 18, Snowflake announced a native integration with NVIDIA CUDA‑X libraries to accelerate machine learning workloads directly in Snowflake. ^[18]

In practice, that means:

Data scientists can run popular Python and ML libraries (like pandas and scikit‑learn) on GPU‑accelerated infrastructure inside Snowflake
Heavy workloads—like model training and feature engineering—can be done where the data lives, instead of exporting large datasets to separate GPU clusters

Strategically, the combination of Anthropic (frontier models), AWS (distribution and cloud), and NVIDIA (acceleration) is Snowflake’s attempt to say: “Your AI stack can live entirely inside Snowflake.”

How Wall Street Sees Snowflake Now

Despite the wobbly price action, analyst sentiment is still decisively positive.

Ratings and price targets

Data compiled by StockAnalysis shows: ^[19]

Around 41–42 analysts cover Snowflake
Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
Average 12‑month price target: ~$264–$265, effectively right around the current price
Target range: $185 (low) to $325 (high)

TipRanks, which tracks 25 Wall Street analysts over the last three months, lists: ^[20]

Average price target:$286, implying roughly low‑teens percent upside from recent prices
High target:$325
Low target:$221

Recent moves include:

Citizens reiterating a Market Outperform rating with a $325 target; they note SNOW is up about 71.6% year‑to‑date and trading near its 52‑week high around $280.67. ^[21]
Stifel raising its target from $260 to $280 on the strength of Snowflake’s AI growth story, while maintaining a Buy rating. ^[22]
Rosenblatt, Citigroup, BofA Securities, and Needham all lifting targets into the $275–$310 zone while keeping bullish stances in recent weeks. ^[23]

In other words: the Street is still mostly in the “AI winner” camp, but average targets are no longer wildly above the current price.

Forward estimates

StockAnalysis’ consensus forecasts paint a picture of slowing but still strong growth: ^[24]

Revenue FY 2026:$4.69 billion, up about 29% from $3.63 billion
Revenue FY 2027:$5.81 billion, up roughly 24%
EPS FY 2026:$1.22, flipping from a GAAP loss in prior years
EPS FY 2027:$1.67, implying around 37% EPS growth

Valuation remains rich, with forward P/E ratios well into triple digits, which is exactly why every percentage point of growth guidance matters so much.

Technicals and Sentiment: Momentum, But Expectations Are High

On the technical side, Investor’s Business Daily recently upgraded Snowflake’s Composite Rating to 96 (out of 99), placing it ahead of 96% of stocks on a blend of earnings strength, price performance, and institutional sponsorship. ^[25]

IBD notes:

SNOW sits within a buy range from an ascending‑base entry around $255.39
Institutional demand looks solid (Accumulation/Distribution rating “B”)
The EPS Rating is lower, at 79, reflecting that profits are still in the earlier innings compared with revenue growth

Finviz and StockStory point out that Snowflake’s revenue has compounded at roughly 55% annually over the last five years, though recent growth has naturally slowed into the high‑20s. Net revenue retention at 125% remains very strong by enterprise‑software standards, but is lower than the 150%+ peaks from earlier years. ^[26]

Put together: technically, Snowflake still behaves like a high‑quality momentum growth stock—which is great when numbers impress, and painful when guidance lands even slightly below the AI fairy‑tale.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case After This Week’s News

The bullish narrative

Supporters of Snowflake’s stock can point to several pillars:

AI flywheel: Anthropic, NVIDIA and AWS integrations give Snowflake a credible story as the AI Data Cloud where data, models and compute converge. ^[27]
Sticky, expanding customers: A 125% net revenue retention rate and nearly 700 seven‑figure customers suggest deep embedding in large enterprises. ^[28]
Massive backlog: RPO of nearly $7.9 billion, up 37%, indicates multi‑year contracted demand. ^[29]
Path to profitability: Non‑GAAP operating margin is already 11%, and full‑year guidance targets mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit margins with strong free‑cash‑flow. ^[30]

If AI‑driven consumption and migrations from legacy data warehouses stay on track, revenue in the 20–30% growth band could be sustainable for longer than skeptics expect.

The bearish narrative

Skeptics aren’t short on arguments either:

Valuation risk: With the stock up over 70% in 2025 and trading at a premium multiple, Snowflake has almost no room for execution missteps. ^[31]
Decelerating growth: Guidance for 27% product‑revenue growth in Q4 is strong, but below what “AI mania” pricing implies. ^[32]
Consumption‑based volatility: Because Snowflake’s model is usage‑based, macro slowdowns or optimization efforts can hit growth quickly, even if the long‑term story is intact.
Heavy competition: Hyperscalers are pushing their own analytics stacks, while other data‑platform and AI players—from Databricks to Palantir—are also fighting to be the enterprise AI substrate.

MarketWatch and others framed this quarter as a classic “beat, but not enough to justify the run” scenario: fundamentals fired, but the narrative bar was even higher. ^[33]

What December 4, 2025 Means for Snowflake (SNOW) Stock

Zooming out, here’s the practical takeaway from today’s news flow:

The business is healthy and maturing.
~30% revenue growth at Snowflake’s scale, with improving margins and strong backlog, is the profile of a high‑quality platform company, not a speculative science project. ^[34]
AI is real here, not just marketing.
The Anthropic deal, AWS milestone, and NVIDIA integration all move Snowflake closer to being a full‑stack AI data platform rather than “just” a data warehouse. Early adoption metrics for Snowflake Intelligence suggest customers are trying to operationalize this. ^[35]
Expectations are the real enemy.
The share price already embeds a belief that Snowflake will be one of the long‑term winners of the AI and data‑modernization wave. That makes every piece of guidance—27% vs 30%—hugely consequential for short‑term price moves. ^[36]
Analysts remain mostly constructive, but upside is more measured.
With average targets only modestly above the current price, the Street isn’t screaming “undervalued” so much as “great company, appropriately expensive, with upside if AI execution surprises positively.” ^[37]

For investors, the open questions over the next few quarters are straightforward and worth watching:

Does product‑revenue growth stabilize, re‑accelerate, or drift lower from the high‑20s?
How quickly do Anthropic‑powered agents and Snowflake Intelligence turn from cool demos into measurable, incremental consumption?
Can Snowflake keep expanding margins while ramping AI investments and partner programs?
And critically: does the market remain willing to pay a premium multiple for “AI infrastructure,” or does it start demanding more traditional software valuations?