US Stock Market Today: Futures Stall Near Record Highs as Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Build – What to Know Before the Bell (Dec. 4, 2025)

U.S. stock futures are catching their breath this Thursday morning after a powerful run that’s pushed the major indexes back toward record territory. Traders are digesting surprisingly strong labor data, fresh earnings from key consumer names, and near‑certain expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week – all before the opening bell on December 4, 2025. ^[1]

Here’s a concise, investor‑friendly rundown of what matters most for the U.S. market before trading starts today.

Futures Hint at a Quiet Open After a Big Run

As of early Thursday, U.S. equity futures were essentially flat to slightly higher:

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up around 0.1%.
S&P 500 futures hovered near unchanged.
Nasdaq 100 futures were modestly in the red, down about 0.1%. ^[2]

This comes after seven gains in the past eight sessions, with Wednesday’s trading leaving the Dow and S&P 500 at more‑than‑three‑week highs and less than 1% below new record closes. ^[3]

Overseas markets are broadly supportive:

European stocks are modestly higher, with the regional Stoxx 600 index up around 0.1–0.4%, led by autos and retailers. ^[4]
Asian equities climbed to their highest levels in more than two weeks, helped by strength in Japanese shares after a strong government bond auction. ^[5]

Taken together, the tone is constructive but calm: after a strong rally, futures point to a “pause and reassess” kind of open rather than another surge.

Jobless Claims Hit a Three‑Year Low – and the Market Loves It

The biggest macro surprise of the morning is weekly jobless claims.

New filings for unemployment benefits fell to 191,000 in the week ended November 29, from a revised 218,000 the prior week.
Economists had expected an increase to about 220,000, not a sharp drop.
Claims are now at their lowest level since September 24, 2022. ^[6]

On the surface, this is “too hot” labor data – fewer layoffs imply a still‑tight job market. But in the current market narrative, it’s being interpreted as part of a “soft landing” story:

The ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a surprise decline in jobs, signaling some cooling in hiring. ^[7]
The latest ISM survey suggests inflation pressures are easing even as services activity holds up. ^[8]

Put together, investors see just enough labor‑market resilience to avoid a hard landing, but enough softening to justify Fed rate cuts. Chicago Fed research also estimates the November unemployment rate around 4.4%, with alternative data hinting at slowly rising job losses – consistent with a gradual cooling rather than an abrupt downturn. ^[9]

For traders today, the key question is how stocks react to this “good news.”

If investors continue to cheer weaker price and modestly softer jobs data, risk assets may keep climbing.
If the market starts worrying about an overheating labor market again, higher yields could reappear quickly – but so far, that’s not the story.

Fed Watch: Markets Are Almost Fully Priced for a December Cut

The Fed meeting on December 10 is now firmly in focus. Futures markets are signaling that, barring a shock, the central bank is about to kick off an easing cycle:

Fed funds futures put the odds of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut next week at around 87–90%, up from roughly 60–83% just a week ago. ^[10]
Traders are also leaning toward additional cuts in early 2026, according to global rate strategists quoted in recent coverage. ^[11]

The cross‑asset moves reflect that confidence:

The U.S. dollar index is on track for its 10th straight daily decline, its longest losing streak in more than 50 years. ^[12]
The 10‑year Treasury yield is hovering just above 4.0% after a sharp fall in recent weeks, while shorter‑dated yields have come down even more. ^[13]
Gold and silver have eased from record highs but remain elevated; Brent crude oil trades in the low $60s per barrel, and WTI around the mid‑$50s to high‑$50s. ^[14]

Later today, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is due to speak, and markets will parse her tone for any pushback on aggressive easing bets. ^[15]

Bottom line for equities: the market is positioned for a dovish Fed. Any hint that policymakers might cut less, or later, than expected could matter more for stocks now than the data itself.

Technical Picture: S&P 500 Near a Breakout, Small Caps Join the Party

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 is approaching a closely watched breakout zone around 6,800–6,800+ (index levels reflect recent re‑basings) after its recent surge. Technical strategists note: ^[16]

Key support has formed in the mid‑6,700s, with buyers stepping in on dips.
A sustained move above the current range would reinforce the idea of a “Santa rally” into year‑end.
At the same time, Big Tech valuations look stretched, especially in AI‑linked names that have already posted outsized gains this year. ^[17]

Importantly, the rally is starting to broaden beyond the mega‑caps:

The Russell 2000 small‑cap index is outperforming the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis, reflecting optimism that rate cuts will relieve pressure on smaller, more rate‑sensitive companies. ^[18]
Volatility remains subdued, with the VIX around the mid‑teens – historically low, but not at extreme complacency levels. ^[19]

For traders, that combination – rich valuations in Big Tech plus improving breadth in small caps – sets the stage for possible rotation rather than a simple continuation of this year’s narrow leadership.

Corporate Movers to Watch: Salesforce, Snowflake, PayPal

Several high‑profile names are making waves before the bell:

Salesforce (CRM)

Salesforce delivered stronger‑than‑expected earnings and raised its fiscal 2026 revenue and profit outlook, fueled by growing demand for its AI‑driven Agentforce platform and data products. ^[20]
The stock is up about 2% in premarket trading, extending gains after an initial post‑earnings pop on Wednesday night. ^[21]

Takeaway: Wall Street is warming to the idea that Salesforce’s heavy AI investment is starting to translate into tangible revenue and margin upside.

Snowflake (SNOW)

Snowflake shares are down around 8–9% premarket, even though Q3 revenue topped expectations. ^[22]
The issue is guidance: the company now expects fourth‑quarter product revenue growth of about 27%, down from 29% in the prior quarter and shy of investors’ “high bar” for AI‑driven acceleration. ^[23]
Management flagged discounts on large, long‑term deals, which dilute near‑term revenue growth but help lock in customers.
At least 13 brokerages raised their price targets, encouraged by strong uptake of Snowflake’s AI features and a new $200 million multi‑year deal with Anthropic to bring Claude models to its platform. ^[24]

Takeaway: Snowflake is a classic valuation story – still trading at well over 100x forward earnings – where even good results can trigger a selloff if growth doesn’t keep accelerating.

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal is down about 1% premarket after JPMorgan downgraded the stock from “overweight” to “neutral,” citing a more cautious view on its growth trajectory. ^[25]

Takeaway: Fintech remains under scrutiny as investors look for clear evidence that cost cuts and product refreshes can reignite growth in a more competitive payments landscape.

Consumer Pulse: Dollar General, Hormel and Kroger Tell a Mixed Story

Today’s earnings slate is heavy on consumer‑facing names, offering a real‑time read on how households are coping with inflation and higher borrowing costs.

Dollar General (DG)

Dollar General beat Q3 earnings expectations, posting EPS of $1.28 vs. about $0.95 expected, and slightly topping revenue forecasts with around $10.65 billion in sales. ^[26]
The company raised its full‑year profit guidance and nudged same‑store sales growth expectations higher, citing strong demand for low‑priced essentials and successful efforts to cut costs and reduce inventory losses. ^[27]
Shares are up roughly 3–5% in premarket trade and have already gained around 45% year‑to‑date as shoppers “trade down” amid economic uncertainty. ^[28]

Read‑through: Discount retailers continue to benefit from budget‑conscious consumers, especially lower‑income households, as they prioritize value over brands.

Hormel Foods (HRL)

Hormel – owner of brands like Skippy and Jennie‑O – forecast annual profit above Wall Street estimates, even as it grapples with elevated costs for beef, pork, and poultry. ^[29]
Q4 sales of about $3.19 billion came in a bit light versus expectations, but adjusted EPS of $0.32 beat estimates of $0.30. ^[30]
Shares are up about 4–5% premarket, helped by price increases, cost‑cutting, and robust demand for turkey and snacks as consumers opt to cook at home rather than dine out. ^[31]

Read‑through: Food producers with strong brands and pricing power are managing to protect margins, even as input costs stay high.

Kroger (KR)

Kroger missed third‑quarter sales estimates, with identical sales (ex‑fuel) rising 2.6% vs. about 2.9% expected. ^[32]
Management pointed to price‑sensitive shoppers and economic uncertainty weighing on volumes at its supermarkets. ^[33]

Read‑through: Traditional grocers are feeling more pressure from both discounters and retailers’ private‑label offerings, as shoppers trade down and hunt bargains.

Macro Calendar: What’s Still Ahead

While the biggest data point of the morning – jobless claims – has already hit, several macro and energy releasesremain on the radar:

Challenger job‑cut report (already released this morning) – showed layoffs lower than the prior reading, reinforcing the message of a gradually weakening but not collapsing labor market. ^[34]
Factory orders data are due later today, after being delayed by the prior U.S. government shutdown. ^[35]
Weekly natural‑gas storage numbers arrive mid‑afternoon U.S. time – important for energy and utilities but less market‑moving for broad equities. ^[36]
Fed’s Bowman speaks later in the day, with investors listening closely for any hint of disagreement inside the Fed about cutting rates into a still‑tight labor market. ^[37]

And hanging over all of this is Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge and the first since the government shutdown disrupted data flow. Markets see this as the final “green light” before next week’s Fed decision. ^[38]

How the Pieces Fit Together for Today’s Session

Here are the key themes to keep in mind as the opening bell approaches:

Soft‑landing narrative is intact
- Jobless claims at a three‑year low, coupled with softer ADP/ISM data, support the idea of slower but still positive growth rather than a sudden downturn. ^[39]
Fed cut is almost “priced‑in”
- With futures assigning near‑90% odds to a December cut and the dollar sliding for a 10th straight day, the bigger risk may now be that the Fed disappoints very dovish expectations. ^[40]
Rally broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven
- Small‑caps, discount retailers, and select food producers are all showing relative strength, a sign that easier policy expectations are lifting more of the market than just mega‑cap tech. ^[41]
Valuations are getting demanding, especially in AI and cloud
- Snowflake’s selloff – despite solid numbers – highlights how perfection is priced into many AI‑exposed growth names. Any hint of slower growth can trigger sharp pullbacks. ^[42]
Consumer still spending, but trading down
- Dollar stores and value retailers are thriving, even as mainstream grocers like Kroger report softer sales, underscoring the budget squeeze on middle‑ and lower‑income households. ^[43]

Practical Watch‑List for Traders and Investors Today

If you’re following the U.S. market into the open, here’s a simple checklist:

Indices & breadth
- Watch whether the S&P 500 can hold above recent support near the high‑6,700s and whether small caps keep outperforming – a sign the rally is broadening, not narrowing. ^[44]
Rates & dollar
- Keep an eye on the 10‑year Treasury yield around 4.0% and the dollar index. A sudden spike in yields or a sharp dollar rebound would be an early warning that markets are re‑thinking the pace of Fed cuts. ^[45]
Key single‑stock moves
- CRM, SNOW, PYPL, DG, HRL, KR are the main early movers shaping sector sentiment in software, fintech, and consumer staples. ^[46]
Fed and Friday’s PCE
- Finally, remember that today’s trading is just the setup for Friday’s PCE report and next week’s Fed decision. Positioning may matter as much as fundamentals in the very short term. ^[47]

As always, this overview is for information and education, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market conditions can change quickly once the cash session opens.