Marvell Technology (MRVL) Soars on Celestial AI Deal: Latest Earnings, Analyst Upgrades and 2026 Stock Forecast

Updated: December 4, 2025

Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is back in the market spotlight. The AI‑focused chip designer has just delivered record quarterly results, unveiled a $3.25 billion acquisition of photonics startup Celestial AI, and triggered a wave of bullish analyst upgrades.

As of midday on December 4, 2025, Marvell shares are trading around $100 per share, up roughly 8% on the day and about 16% above where they closed before the earnings and deal announcement, pushing the company’s market value to about $86 billion. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at what changed for Marvell this week, how Wall Street is reacting, and what the latest forecasts say about MRVL stock from here.

Marvell stock today: price action and valuation snapshot

According to MarketBeat and exchange data, Marvell opened Thursday’s session at $100.20, with a 52‑week range of $47.08 to $127.48. The stock’s 50‑day moving average sits near $87, while the 200‑day average is around $76.77, highlighting how sharply sentiment has improved as AI spending accelerates. ^[2]

Key valuation and balance‑sheet metrics now in focus:

Market cap: ~$86.4 billion ^[3]
Debt‑to‑equity ratio: 0.30, with current ratio 1.88 and quick ratio 1.44, indicating a solid liquidity position. ^[4]
Trailing GAAP P/E: an eye‑catching –770+, distorted by one‑off accounting around asset sales and charges. ^[5]
Forward valuation: based on Street forecasts of roughly $2.9 in FY 2026 non‑GAAP EPS, shares trade at about 35x forward earnings, placing Marvell squarely in “premium AI growth” territory. ^[6]

Marvell also returns capital to shareholders:

Dividend: $0.06 per quarter, or $0.24 annually, a yield of about 0.2% at current prices. ^[7]
Buyback authorization: a $5 billion share repurchase program, equal to up to 7.8% of shares outstanding, signaling management believes the stock remains undervalued relative to long‑term prospects. ^[8]

Q3 FY 2026 earnings: AI data center drives a record quarter

For its third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended November 1, 2025), Marvell reported record revenue and profits, comfortably ahead of expectations. ^[9]

Headline results

Net revenue: $2.075 billion, up ~37% year‑on‑year, and slightly above the company’s own guidance and Street estimates. ^[10]
Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.76, beating the consensus estimate by about 1–3 cents and nearly 77% higher than the $0.43 reported a year ago. ^[11]
GAAP net income: $1.9 billion, or $2.20 per share, boosted by a large one‑time gain from the sale of the automotive ethernet business. ^[12]
Non‑GAAP gross margin:59.7%, with non‑GAAP operating margin improving to 36.3%, reflecting strong scale and operating leverage. ^[13]

The standout remains AI‑driven data center demand:

Data center revenue: $1.52 billion, up about 37.8% year‑on‑year, representing more than 70% of total company revenue. ^[14]
Enterprise networking: $237 million, up 57% year‑on‑year, as customers normalize inventory and resume spending. ^[15]
Carrier infrastructure: $168 million, nearly doubling (+98%) vs. last year as telecom and cloud carriers restart projects. ^[16]
Automotive/Industrial: down sharply after the divestiture of automotive ethernet, underlining Marvell’s strategic pivot away from that market. ^[17]

Management highlighted that growth was broad‑based across data center custom accelerators (ASICs), electro‑optic interconnects, and next‑gen switching products, reinforcing the view that Marvell sits in the plumbing of today’s AI build‑out rather than competing with GPU vendors directly. ^[18]

The Celestial AI acquisition: a $3.25 billion bet on photonics

The biggest strategic headline tied to this quarter is Marvell’s agreement to acquire Celestial AI for $3.25 billion in cash and stock. ^[19]

Deal structure and timing

Total consideration: $3.25 billion
- $1 billion in cash
- 27.2 million Marvell shares (valued at ~$2.25 billion at announcement). ^[20]
Closing timeline: expected to close in Q1 2026 (calendar). ^[21]

Celestial AI is a private startup focused on “photonic fabric” interconnects—optical links that move data using light instead of electrical signals. This technology is increasingly viewed as essential for building the next generation of AI superclusters, where traditional copper interconnects struggle with bandwidth, power, and latency limits. ^[22]

Strategic rationale

Marvell’s CEO Matt Murphy has described the combination as creating a “silicon photonics powerhouse” inside Marvell, pairing its existing strengths in:

Custom AI chips (XPU/ASIC)
Switch silicon
PAM‑4 DSPs and retimers
Coherent and linear pluggable optics

with Celestial’s photonic fabric to deliver rack‑scale optical connectivity for hyperscale AI data centers. ^[23]

Reuters reporting adds some crucial numbers to the long‑term opportunity:

Marvell expects Celestial’s technology to address a new $10 billion+ market for photonics‑enabled infrastructure products. ^[24]
Revenue contribution is expected to be “meaningful” from the second half of FY 2028, reaching about $500 million annualized in Q4 FY 2028 and $1 billion run‑rate by Q4 FY 2029. ^[25]

In short, this is a multi‑year growth bet, not an immediate earnings lever.

Guidance and long‑term outlook: data center and custom AI chips lead the way

Marvell’s near‑term guidance and longer‑term commentary underscore just how central AI data center spending has become to its narrative.

Q4 FY 2026 guidance

For the current quarter, management guided to: ^[26]

Revenue: about $2.20 billion, plus or minus 5%, implying high‑teens percentage growth year‑over‑year.
Non‑GAAP EPS: roughly $0.79 ± $0.05, again pointing to strong earnings acceleration.
Non‑GAAP gross margin: 58.5–59.5%.

This guidance slightly tops prior expectations and continues the pattern of AI‑driven upside, though some analysts note the midpoint is only modestly above consensus, leaving room for debate on just how fast growth can run in the near term. ^[27]

FY 2027 (next fiscal year) and beyond

In post‑earnings commentary and interviews, Marvell laid out an ambitious multi‑year roadmap: ^[28]

Total revenue next fiscal year: expected to reach around $10 billion, driven mostly by the existing business (Celestial adds later).
Data center revenue: targeted to grow 25%+ year‑on‑year next fiscal year.
Custom chip (ASIC/XPU) business: projected to grow about 20% next year.
Management framed its strategy as delivering “rack‑level solutions”—the full connectivity stack from custom accelerators to optical links and switching—rather than one‑off chips.

Zacks’ Investment Ideas note highlights that Wall Street models now embed long‑term EPS growth of about 38% annually over the next three to five years, and calculates a PEG ratio under 1 (≈0.86), suggesting the growth outlook may justify Marvell’s higher multiple in the view of more bullish analysts. ^[29]

Wall Street reaction: a wave of upgrades and higher price targets

The last 48 hours have brought a flood of fresh analyst commentary.

Big target hikes across the Street

Multiple firms raised their price targets following the earnings beat and Celestial AI announcement:

Deutsche Bank: Buy rating, target lifted from $90 to $125. ^[30]
KeyBanc Capital Markets: Overweight, target from $90 to $130. ^[31]
JPMorgan: Overweight, target from $120 to $130. ^[32]
Susquehanna: Positive rating, target from $100 to $120. ^[33]
Evercore ISI: Outperform, target from $122 to $156, one of the Street’s highest. ^[34]
Oppenheimer: Outperform, target boosted from $115 to $150. ^[35]
Piper Sandler: raised its target to as high as $135 in recent notes on the name. ^[36]
Jefferies: reiterated a Buy rating, with its target moving up to $120. ^[37]
Rosenblatt Securities: reiterated Buy, lifting its target to $120 from $95. ^[38]
TheStreet’s premium service also raised its internal MRVL price objective to $140 from $125, citing progress in AI data center initiatives. ^[39]

MarketBeat’s tally now shows three Strong Buy ratings, 21 Buy ratings, and 14 Holds, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target around $111. ^[40]

Independent aggregator StockAnalysis similarly reports that 33 covering analysts maintain a Buy consensus, with an average 12‑month target near $111, implying roughly 10–11% upside from current levels, with individual targets ranging from $67 to $156. ^[41]

Bullish themes — and some lingering questions

Across notes from Zacks, Nasdaq, TS2, and other commentary, several common bullish points emerge: ^[42]

Marvell is increasingly seen as a pure‑play on AI infrastructure capex, especially optical interconnects and custom accelerators for cloud hyperscalers.
The Celestial AI acquisition is viewed as strategically transformative, moving Marvell decisively into photonics and expanding its addressable market.
Record data center revenue and strong margin trends give confidence that Marvell’s AI opportunity is more than just hype.

However, not every analyst is unreservedly bullish. Morningstar‑linked coverage and other research note that:

Execution risk around integrating Celestial AI is real.
The optical and custom chip markets remain fiercely competitive, with Broadcom and Nvidia as formidable rivals.
Some models still show only modest upside from current prices, implying that a lot of good news may already be priced in. ^[43]

Institutional flows and insider buying: who’s backing Marvell?

Fresh 13F filings and ownership reports show both institutional support and insider confidence.

Recent disclosures from firms including Groupe la Francaise and Channing Capital Management show increased stakes in MRVL, contributing to a high institutional ownership share of about 83.5% of the float. ^[44]

More notably, insiders have been net buyers:

CFO Willem Meintjes purchased 3,400 shares around $78 in late September.
CEO Matt Murphy acquired 13,600 shares at roughly $77.
In total, insiders bought about 27,200 shares worth just over $2.1 million in recent months. ^[45]

While insider buying is not a guarantee of future performance, it typically signals management’s conviction in the company’s long‑term trajectory—especially notable just ahead of such a major strategic acquisition.

Key risks for MRVL stock

Even as Marvell is being re‑rated as an AI infrastructure leader, several risk factors could derail the bull case.

1. Celestial AI integration and execution

Celestial is a complex, bleeding‑edge technology asset. Successfully integrating its team, product roadmap, and customer engagements—and then hitting ambitious revenue milestones starting in FY 2028—will be challenging. If the technology slips or customers favor competing photonics solutions, the returns on this $3.25 billion deal could fall short. ^[46]

2. Competitive pressure from AI heavyweights

Marvell operates in markets dominated by Broadcom, Nvidia, and other large chipmakers, all vying to supply custom AI silicon and optical connectivity. Aggressive pricing, faster innovation cycles, or tight ecosystem lock‑in by these giants could limit Marvell’s share gains or pressure margins. ^[47]

3. Cyclical and concentrated AI capex

The bullish forecasts assume continued, high‑intensity AI capex from a relatively small set of hyperscale customers (like Amazon and Microsoft). A slowdown in AI workloads, macroeconomic headwinds, or shifts in cloud providers’ strategies could quickly hit Marvell’s growth trajectory. ^[48]

4. Valuation risk

At roughly 35x forward earnings, MRVL trades at a premium to many semiconductor peers. If growth decelerates, or if market enthusiasm for AI infrastructure cools, that multiple could compress, pulling the stock down even if fundamentals remain solid. ^[49]

5. Model dispersion and volatility

While the average price target implies mid‑teens upside, the range is wide—from bears in the $60s to bulls in the $150s. That dispersion reflects genuine uncertainty about how much market share and profit Marvell can ultimately capture in AI infrastructure, and it means the stock could remain volatile around each earnings report or AI sentiment swing. ^[50]

Marvell Technology stock forecast: what to watch next

Putting this week’s news and forecasts together, Marvell has reframed itself as a core AI infrastructure player:

Record Q3 results led by nearly 40% data center growth
A $3.25B Celestial AI acquisition that deepens its photonics and optical‑interconnect capabilities
A sharply upgraded data center revenue growth outlook (25%+) and a path toward ~$10B in annual revenue next fiscal year
A broad wave of analyst upgrades and triple‑digit price targets, with consensus clustered around $110–$120 and some outliers as high as $150–$156. ^[51]

For investors following MRVL, key catalysts and watch‑points over the coming quarters include:

Closure and early integration of Celestial AI
- Regulatory approvals and deal closing in early 2026
- Initial customer traction updates and product roadmap clarity
Data center growth vs. guidance
- Whether data center revenue can indeed grow 25%+ next year
- The ramp of custom AI chips for marquee hyperscalers
Margins and cash flow
- Sustaining high‑50s to ~60% non‑GAAP gross margin while investing heavily in R&D and integration
- Continued strong operating cash flow to fund buybacks and dividends
Competitive announcements
- New offerings from Broadcom, Nvidia, and others in optical connectivity and custom accelerators
- Any rack‑level solutions that encroach on Marvell’s strategic territory
Macro and AI sentiment
- The durability of the AI infrastructure spending cycle
- Interest‑rate moves and broader tech‑sector risk appetite

Important note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All stock investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.