Updated: December 4, 2025
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is back in the spotlight after a sharp mid‑week selloff, fresh commentary from management on slowing checkout growth, and growing debate over whether the fintech giant is a value opportunity or a value trap.
On Wednesday, PayPal shares fell about 2.6%, trading down to roughly $61–62 per share and hitting intraday lows near $60.41. Trading volume surged to more than 24 million shares, almost double the typical session, signaling heightened institutional activity and retail interest alike. [1]
Despite the volatility, Wall Street’s view on PYPL remains split: consensus sits at a “Hold” rating with an average price target around $80–82, while some analysts see upside of 70% or more from current levels — and others remain skeptical after years of underperformance. [2]
This article walks through the latest PayPal stock news, fundamentals, technicals and forecasts as of December 4, 2025, and what it all could mean for PYPL over 2025–2026.
1. PayPal stock price and trading action on December 4, 2025
After a Q3 earnings pop in late October, PayPal stock has given back significant ground into early December.
- Price & move: On Wednesday, December 3, PYPL finished around $61.24, down 2.6% on the day and roughly 35% below its 2025 high near $93. [3]
- Volume: Around 24.3 million shares changed hands, about 95% above the average daily volume of roughly 12.5 million, highlighting unusually heavy trading. [4]
- Intraday range: The stock traded between $60.41 and $63.93 during the session. [5]
- Performance: Depending on the source and cut‑off date, PayPal is down roughly 20–25% year‑to‑date and a similar amount over the last 12 months, badly trailing major U.S. equity indices that are up double‑digits in 2025. [6]
From a technical perspective, several near‑term indicators lean cautious:
- PYPL trades below both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, a typical sign that bears still control the trend. [7]
- Meyka data shows a Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44, indicating neither extreme oversold nor overbought conditions, and a slightly negative MACD reading, consistent with mild bearish momentum. [8]
- Bollinger Bands sit roughly between $57.5 and $70.5, implying a wide volatility channel traders are watching for breakouts. [9]
Technically, Invezz/TradingView analysis flags $50 as a key downside support if selling accelerates, and roughly $64.50 as an important resistance level that would need to be cleared to invalidate the current bearish setup. [10]
2. Why PYPL sold off: CFO flags slower branded checkout growth
The latest leg lower in PayPal’s share price was triggered not by earnings, but by guidance around one of its most closely watched businesses: branded checkout.
At UBS’s Global Tech & AI Conference on December 3, PayPal CFO Jamie Miller said that growth in the company’s branded checkout volume would be “at least a couple of points slower” in the fourth quarter than it was in Q3, even though overall guidance for the year remains unchanged. [11]
That comment matters because branded checkout is PayPal’s historical crown jewel — the button people click on ecommerce sites — and a key measure of the health of its core franchise in a world of intense competition from Apple Pay, Stripe, Adyen and BNPL specialists.
Analysts and investors interpreted Miller’s remarks as a sign that:
- Consumer spending remains soft in some categories.
- Competitive pressure at checkout is still biting.
- New product initiatives have yet to fully offset the slowdown in PayPal’s legacy strengths. [12]
Investing.com reported that the remarks pushed PYPL down as much as 4% intraday before the stock recovered slightly into the close, finishing the day off about 2.5–2.6%. [13]
KBW analyst Sanjay Sakhrani described the deceleration in branded checkout growth as somewhat more severe than previously expected, while noting that PayPal is in a transition period and that current valuation already reflects subdued expectations. [14]
3. Fundamentals after Q3 2025: beat, raise and a new dividend
The selloff comes just weeks after PayPal reported a strong third quarter and unveiled several shareholder‑friendly moves.
According to PayPal’s Q3 2025 earnings release and subsequent analysis: [15]
- Revenue: About $8.4 billion, up roughly 7% year‑on‑year and ahead of consensus estimates near $8.2 billion.
- Adjusted EPS: Approximately $1.34, up about 12% versus last year and comfortably above analyst forecasts around $1.20–1.21.
- Total Payment Volume (TPV): Roughly $458 billion, up around 8% year‑over‑year on a forex‑neutral basis.
On the back of that performance, management raised full‑year 2025 EPS guidance to roughly $5.35–$5.39, compared with a prior range of $5.15–$5.30 and street expectations around $5.24 at the time. [16]
First‑ever dividend
Perhaps the most symbolic change: PayPal has begun to behave a bit more like a mature value stock.
- The company initiated its first quarterly cash dividend, set at $0.14 per share, implying an annualized payout of $0.56 and a yield of about 0.9% at current prices. [17]
- The payout is intentionally modest — roughly 10–11% of adjusted earnings — leaving room for reinvestment and continued share repurchases.
For some institutional investors who screen for dividend‑paying companies only, this change could modestly expand the potential holder base over time. [18]
Share repurchases and capital returns
TradingView/Invezz analysis notes that PayPal has returned roughly $5.7 billion to shareholders via buybacks over the last 12 months and plans to accelerate repurchases, using financial engineering to bolster EPS even in a slower growth environment. [19]
Combined with the new dividend, this positions PayPal as a hybrid: still a growth‑oriented fintech, but increasingly packaged as a cash‑generative value stock.
4. Strategic pivots: AI commerce, BNPL expansion, cross‑border and UK relaunch
Beyond earnings, PayPal has been busy reshaping its strategic footprint across AI, BNPL, and international markets — all of which are central to the current investment narrative.
4.1 OpenAI & ChatGPT: Agentic commerce inside AI
On October 28, 2025, PayPal announced a major partnership with OpenAI to bring instant checkout to ChatGPT, adopting the open Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP). [20]
Key elements:
- Millions of ChatGPT users will be able to complete purchases directly within the chat interface using PayPal’s wallet and buyer protection.
- PayPal will serve as a payments engine for merchants using OpenAI’s Instant Checkout, handling routing, payment validation, and settlement. [21]
- In 2026, PayPal plans to make tens of millions of its merchants discoverable in ChatGPT, effectively turning the AI assistant into a new commerce channel for both small businesses and large brands. [22]
Reuters reported that the announcement, combined with the Q3 beat and guidance raise, helped spark a double‑digit pre‑market jump in PayPal’s shares in late October. [23]
LeverageShares research frames this OpenAI deal, along with the dividend and Q3 beat, as one of three major potential stock price drivers for PYPL going into 2026. [24]
4.2 Perplexity partnership: “Instant Buy” AI shopping
On November 25, 2025, PayPal also announced Instant Buy with Perplexity, allowing users to discover PayPal merchants inside the Perplexity answer engine and check out in‑chat using PayPal. [25]
- U.S. users can browse real‑time merchant catalogs in Perplexity and complete purchases without leaving the AI interface.
- To jump‑start adoption, PayPal is offering 50% back (up to $50) on a first Perplexity purchase during a limited Black Friday promotion window. [26]
Together, the OpenAI and Perplexity partnerships are central to PayPal’s push into “agentic commerce” — letting AI agents and users move from product discovery to transaction in a few taps, while PayPal handles identity, fraud and payments under the hood.
4.3 BNPL in Canada: No‑fee “Pay in 4”
On November 10, 2025, PayPal launched PayPal Pay in 4 in Canada: an interest‑free, no‑fee buy now, pay later (BNPL) product. [27]
Highlights from the launch announcement:
- Customers can split eligible purchases of $30 to $1,500 CAD into four equal payments over six weeks.
- No interest, no late fees and no sign‑up fees; payments can be made by debit, credit or bank account.
- Eligible transactions receive PayPal Purchase Protection, which is a differentiator versus some pure‑play BNPL rivals.
- PayPal cites internal data showing ~90% approval rates and ~80% higher order values for merchants that adopt its BNPL offerings.
The move is aimed at capturing more BNPL spend in a key developed market and strengthening PayPal’s appeal with both shoppers and merchants heading into peak holiday shopping. [28]
Separately, PayPal has also struck a financing agreement with KKR covering up to €65 billion of eligible European BNPL loans through 2028, effectively recycling risk and freeing up balance sheet capacity for future growth. [29]
4.4 PayPal World: Cross‑border payments platform
In July 2025, PayPal announced PayPal World, an optimized cross‑border platform that connects various local payment systems and digital wallets worldwide. [30]
- It integrates partners such as Mercado Pago, NPCI International (UPI), Tenpay Global and Venmo into a single cloud‑native network.
- Customers can pay international merchants using their preferred local wallet and currency, while PayPal handles the complex FX and routing. [31]
This initiative aims squarely at cross‑border ecommerce, a structurally growing market where PayPal still has brand recognition but faces intense competition from card networks, neobanks and local wallets.
4.5 UK relaunch and cards
On November 12, 2025, Reuters reported that PayPal is re‑launching in the UK for consumers after almost two years of restructuring post‑Brexit. [32]
- UK customers get access to PayPal debit cards usable worldwide without transaction fees, credit cards, and the PayPal+ loyalty program. [33]
The UK remains one of Europe’s most important ecommerce markets; regaining traction there is another piece of the bullish long‑term argument.
5. Valuation: value trap or undervalued fintech?
The core of the PYPL debate in December 2025 is straightforward: has the stock fallen too far, or is it cheap for a reason?
5.1 Traditional valuation metrics
Recent analyses converge on the idea that PayPal is trading at value‑stock multiples:
- TradingView/Invezz notes PayPal’s forward P/E around 11–12, significantly below its own five‑year average near 25. [34]
- MarketBeat data shows a trailing P/E of about 12.3, a PEG ratio under 1, and a market cap around $57–59 billion — modest given PayPal’s global scale. [35]
Simply Wall St’s excess‑returns model estimates a fair value of roughly $120 per share, implying PYPL could be about 50% undervalued versus its current price near $61. [36] The same analysis notes PayPal’s P/E multiple is lower than both the broader U.S. credit‑services industry and high‑growth peers. [37]
The obvious caveat: valuation models depend heavily on assumptions about future growth and returns on capital; if those prove too optimistic, any “discount” can disappear quickly.
5.2 Analyst price targets and ratings
Wall Street is anything but unanimous:
- MarketBeat tallies 16 Buy, 18 Hold and 4 Sell ratings, for a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average 12‑month price target of about $82. [38]
- Meyka’s aggregation shows a consensus target near €79.79 (broadly in line with $80+ at current FX) and a high target of €100. [39]
- After the Q3 earnings and OpenAI announcement, Oppenheimer reportedly raised its target to $130, roughly 75–80% above recent prices, citing the combination of better profitability, AI‑driven commerce opportunities and capital returns. [40]
- More recently, BNP Paribas Exane trimmed its target from $71 to $69 and reaffirmed a neutral rating, a move that coincided with Wednesday’s 2.6% drop and surge in trading volume. [41]
The spread between a neutral €69–$70 target and a bullish $130 target shows just how wide the range of outcomes analysts are modeling for PayPal’s next few years.
6. Technical and sentiment snapshot
Short‑term traders are focusing on a few key points:
- Elevated volume: Wednesday’s near‑doubling of average volume suggests large funds were repositioning on the BNP Exane downgrade and CFO comments. [42]
- Neutral momentum: With an RSI in the mid‑40s and only mildly negative MACD, the stock is not in an extreme oversold condition, leaving room for both further downside or a sharp bounce on positive news. [43]
- Key levels:
Sentiment‑wise, Meyka notes that year‑to‑date and one‑year performance remain firmly negative, but the recent spike in activity and heavy analyst coverage suggest renewed market interest rather than apathy. [46]
7. PayPal stock outlook for 2025–2026: the bull and bear cases
No one has a crystal ball for PYPL, but current research and commentary cluster around a few core themes.
7.1 The bull case
Bullish analysts and platforms like Oppenheimer and Simply Wall St emphasize three pillars: [47]
- Profitable growth, not hyper‑growth:
- High‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit EPS growth can still justify a higher multiple than ~11–12x forward earnings, especially with improving transaction margins.
- AI‑driven commerce opportunities:
- The OpenAI and Perplexity partnerships, combined with PayPal’s own agentic commerce services, could position the company as a default wallet and payments layer for AI shopping, potentially opening new monetization channels in 2026 and beyond.
- Capital returns and de‑risking:
- The new dividend, ongoing buybacks and deals like the KKR BNPL loan sale in Europe support the view that PayPal can return cash while still investing, all while keeping credit risk under control.
Layered on top, valuation models suggesting 40–50% undervaluation and price targets pushing into the $100–130 range form the backbone of the long‑term bull thesis. [48]
7.2 The bear (or cautious) case
The more cautious camp — including BNP Paribas Exane and several “Sell”‑rated analysts — focuses on execution risk and market saturation. Key concerns include: [49]
- Slowing branded checkout growth at a time when competitors are aggressively winning share at online checkout and in mobile wallets.
- Single‑digit revenue growth forecasts (around 4–6% for 2025–2026) that may not justify a big re‑rating if investor appetite remains concentrated in higher‑growth AI and cloud names. [50]
- The risk that AI commerce benefits are over‑estimated or slow to materialize, especially if consumers stick with familiar retail apps or if other wallets (Apple Pay, Google Pay, card‑on‑file solutions) dominate the new channels.
- Continued regulatory and credit risk around BNPL, despite de‑risking efforts through partnerships like the KKR loan sale. [51]
From this perspective, the current valuation discount is less a gift and more a market verdict on a franchise that may never re‑capture its former growth premium.
8. What to watch next
For investors tracking PayPal over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, several data points will be especially important:
- Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance: Whether branded checkout slows only “a couple of points” or more sharply — and how management frames the growth profile for 2026. [52]
- Adoption metrics for AI commerce: Any disclosed numbers on transaction volume routed via ChatGPT or Perplexity, merchant sign‑ups to agentic commerce services, and conversion rates. [53]
- BNPL performance and regulation: Delinquency trends, regulatory commentary in Europe and North America, and how the KKR partnership shapes balance‑sheet risk. [54]
- Competitive dynamics at checkout: Updates on share vs. Apple Pay, traditional cards and global PSPs, especially in North America and Europe.
Bottom line
As of December 4, 2025, PayPal stock sits at the intersection of solid profitability, slowing legacy growth and high‑potential AI and BNPL bets.
- The near‑term story is dominated by cautious commentary on branded checkout and choppy technicals.
- The long‑term story revolves around whether PayPal can turn AI‑native commerce, cross‑border payments and BNPL scale into durable mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and sustained double‑digit EPS growth.
With consensus targets clustered around $80–82, bulls arguing for $100+, and cautious analysts anchoring closer to $69–70, PYPL remains a controversial large‑cap fintech — and one that markets clearly have not finished debating.
References
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