Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Today, 4 December 2025: Zepbound Price Cuts, Jaypirca FDA Win and New $1,200–$1,500 Targets

Date: 4 December 2025

Eli Lilly stock at a glance

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is trading around $1,030–$1,040 per share on 4 December 2025, down roughly 1% on the session after slipping from about $1,046 in the previous close. Intraday, the stock has been oscillating roughly between $1,022 and $1,051. ^[1]

Over the past year, Lilly shares have traded between $623.78 and $1,111.99, and today’s quote values the company at roughly $975–$980 billion in market capitalization. On recent numbers, that equates to a trailing P/E of about 50.5, a PEG ratio near 1.2 and a beta of ~0.37, underlining both rich growth expectations and relatively low volatility versus the broader market. ^[2]

Lilly currently pays a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share (annualized $6.00), for a dividend yield of about 0.6%, with a payout ratio near 29% — a modest income stream that reinforces the idea of LLY as a growth stock rather than a high‑yield play. ^[3]

Performance-wise, the stock has already gained well over 30% in 2025, with Reuters estimating a climb of about 39% this year as Lilly became the first drugmaker ever to hit a $1 trillion market value in November. ^[4]

Why Eli Lilly is in the spotlight this week

Two big storylines dominate the Eli Lilly narrative in early December 2025:

1. Aggressive price cuts and access deals for its blockbuster obesity drug Zepbound and future oral GLP‑1 orforglipron.
2. A fresh FDA win and label expansion for its blood cancer drug Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib).

Together, they shape both the short‑term sentiment around LLY and the long‑term growth thesis.

Zepbound price cuts: Lilly trades margins for volume and policy goodwill

On 1 December, Lilly announced sharp price reductions for single‑dose vials of its obesity drug Zepbound (tirzepatide), sold directly to consumers via LillyDirect in the U.S. ^[5]

Key changes:

• 2.5 mg starter dose: cut from $349 to $299 per month
• 5 mg dose: cut from $499 to $399 per month
• Higher doses: now $449 per month, down from $499, under the Zepbound Self Pay Journey Program

These reductions follow similar cuts to multi‑dose pens announced in November and are explicitly framed as an effort “to make the treatment more affordable for U.S. patients” amid surging demand for GLP‑1 weight‑loss therapies. ^[6]

Reuters notes that these price moves arrive just weeks after Lilly became the first pharmaceutical company to join the $1 trillion market‑cap club, powered largely by explosive sales of tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. Zepbound has already overtaken Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy in U.S. obesity prescriptions, and tirzepatide is now considered the world’s best‑selling drug, surpassing Merck’s Keytruda. ^[7]

Investor read‑through:

• Short‑term: Lower realized prices can pressure margins and near‑term EPS, which helps explain some of the recent consolidation in the share price despite blockbuster sales.
• Medium‑term: Cheaper cash‑pay options, combined with government reimbursement deals (see next section), could dramatically expand the addressable patient pool, especially in obesity and related comorbidities such as obstructive sleep apnea. ^[8]

U.S. government deal: $50 obesity meds for tens of millions of Americans

On 6 November, Lilly announced a landmark agreement with the U.S. government designed to expand access to its obesity medicines and reduce out‑of‑pocket costs. ^[9]

Headline terms:

• Starting as early as 1 April 2026, Medicare beneficiaries with obesity or overweight will pay no more than $50 per month for:
  • Zepbound multi‑dose pen, and
  • Orforglipron, Lilly’s once‑daily oral obesity pill, if approved by the FDA.
• Medicaid programs will be allowed to extend similar access, potentially opening up treatment to tens of millions of lower‑income patients.
• For self‑pay patients using LillyDirect:
  • Zepbound multi‑dose pens will range from $299 to $449 per month, and
  • Orforglipron will range from $149 to $399 per month, depending on dose. ^[10]

Lilly estimates the agreement could improve access for nearly 40 million Americans with obesity on government insurance, while also lowering costs for many who pay out of pocket. Management frames this as both a public‑health milestone and an extension of its earlier insulin‑pricing reforms (including the now‑standard $35 insulin cap). ^[11]

Why markets care:

• The deal cements policy support for GLP‑1 obesity drugs but also forces Lilly to accept structurally lower prices in key U.S. channels.
• Bulls see this as “volume over price” – a trade that could sustain double‑digit revenue growth through the end of the decade if supply keeps up.
• Bears note the precedent: once drugs are deeply integrated into Medicare and Medicaid at lower prices, it becomes much harder to re‑establish premium pricing later.

New FDA win: Jaypirca’s CLL/SLL approval moves earlier in the treatment course

Away from obesity, Lilly scored a significant oncology milestone this week.

On 3 December, the FDA granted full (traditional) approval and a label expansion for Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) in adults with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) who have previously received a covalent BTK inhibitor. ^[12]

Previously, Jaypirca held an accelerated approval requiring patients to have had at least two lines of prior therapy, including a BTK inhibitor and a BCL‑2 inhibitor. The new approval allows its use earlier— immediately after patients fail a covalent BTK inhibitor such as Imbruvica or Calquence. ^[13]

Key trial details:

• Based on the Phase 3 BRUIN CLL‑321 trial in previously treated CLL/SLL patients. ^[14]
• Jaypirca reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 42–46% versus standard regimens such as idelalisib + rituximab or bendamustine + rituximab. ^[15]
• Median progression‑free survival was around 11–14 months with Jaypirca versus about 9 months with control regimens in different analyses. ^[16]

For investors, the Jaypirca news:

• Diversifies Lilly’s growth story beyond incretin/obesity drugs.
• Strengthens its position in hematologic oncology, with a differentiated non‑covalent BTK inhibitor that can work after covalent BTK drugs fail.
• Adds a new source of high‑margin specialty revenue, albeit from a much smaller market than obesity.

Q3 2025 results: the engine behind the trillion‑dollar valuation

Lilly’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025, released 30 October) is still the financial backdrop for today’s valuation. ^[17]

Highlights:

• Revenue: $17.6 billion, +54% year‑on‑year, driven mainly by incretin drugs Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity).
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $7.02, up from $1.18 a year earlier.
• Key products:
  • Mounjaro revenue $6.52 billion (+109% YoY)
  • Zepbound revenue $3.59 billion (+185% YoY) ^[18]
• 2025 guidance raised:
  • Full‑year revenue: now $63.0–$63.5 billion
  • Non‑GAAP EPS:$23.00–$23.70

The quarter also showcased a broadly advancing pipeline, including:

• Positive Phase 3 data for orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP‑1, across obesity and type 2 diabetes, with global regulatory submissions planned by year‑end. ^[19]
• Approval of Inluriyo (imlunestrant) for certain ER+/HER2–/ESR1‑mutated breast cancers. ^[20]
• Additional regulatory wins and trial updates for Omvoh, Kisunla (donanemab for Alzheimer’s), Verzenio, and several immunology and oncology assets. ^[21]

This combination of explosive revenue growth, margin expansion and pipeline momentum is the core justification for Lilly’s tech‑like valuation multiples.

What Wall Street is saying: latest ratings and price targets

Consensus view

Across major brokerages, Eli Lilly remains one of the most favored large‑cap healthcare names:

• MarketBeat counts 26 analysts covering the stock over the last 12 months with a “Moderate Buy” consensus:
  • 3 Strong Buys
  • 16 Buys
  • 7 Holds
• The average 12‑month price target sits around $1,087 per share, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels. The target range spans $800 on the low end to $1,300 on the high end. ^[22]

MarketBeat’s coverage of institutional filings also pegs the consensus target near $1,083 and notes that roughly 82.5% of Lilly’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds. ^[23]

Recent bullish moves

In the last few days, multiple firms have raised their targets following Q3 results, obesity access deals and the Jaypirca label expansion:

• Guggenheim lifted its target to $1,163 (from $1,036) with a Buy rating, expecting tirzepatide to drive around 20% total sales growth to about $76.8 billion in 2026 and highlighting orforglipron and long‑acting amylin eloralintide as key future obesity drivers. ^[24]
• BMO Capital Markets nudged its target to $1,200, citing optimism ahead of the TRIUMPH‑4 Phase 3 trial for retatrutide, where it models roughly 20–23% weight loss and meaningful osteoarthritis pain reduction in its base case. BMO estimates positive trial results could add around 3% to the share price in the near term. ^[25]
• Other houses, including BofA Securities, National Bankshares, Cantor Fitzgerald, UBS and Berenberg, now cluster in a $950–$1,286 target band, largely maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings and focusing on Lilly’s first‑mover advantage and execution in obesity and diabetes. ^[26]

Beyond the big banks:

• A synthesis of 42 Wall Street analysts compiled by TickerNerd points to a median target of $1,000 (range $770 to $1,500) with an overall “Strong Buy” skew (21 Buys, 8 Holds, 1 Sell). The most bullish published target is $1,500 from Citigroup’s Peter Verdult, implying substantial upside from current levels. ^[27]

The cautious camp

Not everyone is comfortable with Lilly’s valuation:

• A recent 24/7 Wall St model, published before Q3, assumed a P/E of 50 on projected 2025 EPS of $19.11, yielding a fair‑value estimate around $955 per share — below today’s price. ^[28]
• Valuation‑focused commentary (for example, on Seeking Alpha and other platforms) has described Lilly’s multiple as “sky‑high” relative to pharma peers, arguing that much of the GLP‑1 opportunity may already be priced in and advocating Hold rather than aggressive new buying at these levels. ^[29]

In other words, the Street is broadly bullish on the business, but split on the stock price: upside targets are creeping higher, yet more voices are warning about the risk of multiple compression if growth slows or pricing pressure intensifies.

Quant and technical forecasts: algorithms see upside, with volatility

For traders and quantitatively oriented investors, several model‑driven platforms provide short‑ and medium‑term forecasts for LLY. These are not investment advice, but they color near‑term sentiment.

Intellectia.ai: strong technical rating, modest near‑term upside

Intellectia’s AI‑driven forecast (updated 4 December 2025) characterizes LLY as a “Strong Buy candidate” based on five dimensions: technical indicators, moving averages, short‑selling data, similar‑chart analysis and seasonality. ^[30]

Key points:

• Short‑term forecasts (from their model):
  • 1‑day: about ‑2.6%
  • 1‑week: about ‑1.3%
  • 1‑month: about +7–9%, with a projected price around $1,110–$1,175. ^[31]
• As of 4 December, the stock registers 4 bullish and 1 bearish technical signals, with MACD, momentum and other oscillators skewing positive, while some shorter‑term moving averages flag consolidation. ^[32]
• Intellectia also notes that December has historically been one of the weaker months for LLY in terms of win rate, suggesting heightened risk of choppiness even in a longer‑term uptrend. ^[33]

Other algorithmic forecasts

Third‑party model sites paint a mixed but generally constructive picture:

• CoinCodex projects LLY could rise about 9–10% to around $1,148 by 1 January 2026, based purely on historical price patterns and technical indicators. ^[34]
• PandaForecast estimates a near‑term target around $1,078 for 7 December 2025, but characterizes the short‑term trend as having “negative dynamics” with volatility of about 3–4%. ^[35]

Crucially, these tools do not incorporate full fundamental analysis or regulatory risk. They are useful for gauging sentiment and potential trading ranges, but they should not be relied on in isolation for long‑term investment decisions.

Valuation: can growth keep up with the multiple?

At roughly $1,030 per share, using Lilly’s 2025 non‑GAAP EPS guidance of $23.00–$23.70, the stock trades on a forward P/E in the mid‑40s, one of the highest multiples in large‑cap global pharma. ^[36]

Reuters’ analysis comparing Lilly with peers shows that: ^[37]

• LLY is valued at roughly 33x next‑twelve‑month earnings and about 18x projected 2030 earnings,
• whereas premium rivals like AstraZeneca and Roche trade closer to 12x their 2030 earnings, and
• the multiple on long‑term earnings for Lilly now looks more like Coca‑Cola or Monster Beverage than a typical drugmaker.

The bull case:

• GLP‑1 and related obesity treatments may be a “pharma mega‑cycle”, with Guggenheim projecting ~20% annual sales growth to nearly $77 billion by 2026, led by tirzepatide. ^[38]
• The pipeline is stacked: injectable tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound), oral GLP‑1 orforglipron, long‑acting amylin eloralintide, combination therapies, plus Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla, oncology assets like Jaypirca, and additional immunology products. ^[39]
• If obesity drugs become as ubiquitous as some bulls expect, Lilly could sustain double‑digit revenue and EPS growth well into the 2030s, making today’s multiple more justifiable.

The bear case:

• Forecasts already assume very high market share and adoption; even modest disappointments in demand, pricing, or pipeline data could trigger multiple compression. ^[40]
• Competition is intensifying: Novo Nordisk remains a formidable rival, while Roche, Pfizer and others are advancing next‑generation weight‑loss drugs and oral GLP‑1s; generics and biosimilars will eventually follow once key patents expire. ^[41]
• Policymakers now see GLP‑1s as a systemic budget item; the U.S. government deal that caps Medicare patient costs at $50/month is a reminder that pricing power has limits in mass chronic indications. ^[42]

In short: Lilly is priced more like a dominant consumer‑tech or consumer‑staples franchise than a traditional pharmaceutical manufacturer, and the stock will likely remain sensitive to any shifts in the GLP‑1 growth story.

Institutional flows and dividend profile

Fresh 13F filings show a mixed but generally constructive institutional picture:

• Kennedy Capital Management reduced its LLY stake by about 16% in Q2, selling 7,025 shares but still holding more than 36,000 shares worth roughly $28.2 million, with Lilly remaining its 14th‑largest holding. ^[43]
• Great Diamond Partners cut its position by around 35.6%, leaving it with 4,257 shares valued at about $3.3 million. ^[44]

These moves look more like profit‑taking and risk management after a huge multi‑year run than a mass exodus. Both reports emphasize that:

• Institutional ownership stands above 82%, and
• Analysts still see a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target around $1,082–$1,083 per share. ^[45]

The dividend remains modest — a 0.6% yield — but growing earnings and a relatively low payout ratio give Lilly ample flexibility to raise dividends, fund capex for new manufacturing sites (Virginia, Texas, Puerto Rico) and continue aggressive R&D. ^[46]

Key catalysts to watch

For investors and traders following LLY into 2026, several catalysts stand out:

1. TRIUMPH‑4 (retatrutide) Phase 3 data
   • BMO expects 20–23% weight loss and meaningful improvements in osteoarthritis pain scores. Strong results could support additional upside in obesity‑related indications and reinforce Lilly’s leadership in incretins. ^[47]
2. Regulatory filings and potential approval of orforglipron (oral GLP‑1)
   • Q3 guidance indicates global obesity submissions by year‑end 2025, with the U.S. government deal explicitly referencing orforglipron as part of the $50/month Medicare cap. This could unlock huge volume in patients preferring pills over injections. ^[48]
3. Real‑world uptake of Jaypirca after its label expansion
   • The earlier‑line CLL/SLL indication could substantially expand the addressable population and cement Jaypirca as the BTK inhibitor of choice after covalent BTK failure. ^[49]
4. Policy and pricing developments
   • Implementation details of the Medicare/Medicaid obesity deal and any additional pricing reforms or caps in the U.S. and Europe will be closely watched, as they directly impact the margin profile of GLP‑1 drugs. ^[50]
5. Manufacturing capacity and supply
   • Delays or bottlenecks at new facilities in Virginia, Texas, and Puerto Rico could limit how quickly Lilly can convert policy‑enabled demand into actual sales. ^[51]
6. Competition & pipeline readouts from rivals
   • Any breakthrough data from Novo Nordisk, Roche, Pfizer or new entrants in weight‑loss and metabolic disease could reshape market share expectations and weigh on ultrahigh valuations.

Main risks

Even for a high‑quality business like Lilly, investors face material risks:

• Regulatory & safety risk: New safety signals or label changes for GLP‑1 drugs (e.g., cardiovascular or psychiatric effects) could limit use or require black‑box warnings.
• Political risk: The obesity‑drug market has become a political target, and future administrations could push for even more aggressive price controls or reimbursement restrictions. ^[52]
• Concentration risk: A large portion of Lilly’s current and projected growth comes from a single mechanism (incretins); setbacks in this class would have an outsized impact. ^[53]
• Execution risk: Scaling manufacturing, launching oral GLP‑1s, and successfully commercializing new oncology and Alzheimer’s drugs all require flawless execution across science, operations and marketing. ^[54]

Bottom line: how does LLY look on 4 December 2025?

As of 4 December 2025, Eli Lilly remains one of the most powerful growth stories in global healthcare:

• It has industry‑leading revenue growth,
• A deep and differentiated obesity pipeline,
• Fresh validation in hematology with Jaypirca’s full approval and label expansion, and
• A strong balance of analyst support, with targets now stretching into the $1,200–$1,500 range at the very top end. ^[55]

At the same time, the valuation leaves very little room for disappointment. Any wobble in GLP‑1 growth, pricing, safety, or competition – or a broader risk‑off move in expensive growth stocks – could trigger sharp pullbacks, even if the long‑term story remains intact.

For prospective investors, that means:

• LLY is not a low‑risk value play,
• Its appeal lies in owning a potential long‑term compounder in obesity, metabolic disease and oncology, and
• Position sizing, time horizon and risk tolerance are critical.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering Eli Lilly stock should do their own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser before making decisions.

References

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