US Stock Market Today, December 4, 2025: Wall Street Ends Mixed Near Record Highs as Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Build

The US stock market closed Thursday in quietly positive fashion, with major indexes hovering near record highs while investors leaned into hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week and digested a fresh batch of labor data and earnings.

At the closing bell on December 4, 2025:

S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6,857.12
Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 0.2% to 23,505.14
Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07% to 47,850.94 ^[1]

Under the surface, small‑cap stocks stole the show: the Russell 2000 climbed 0.8% to a record 2,531, helped by growing conviction that borrowing costs are about to fall. ^[2]

Key takeaways from today’s US stock market session

Wall Street ended mixed but calm with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edging higher and the Dow modestly lower, leaving all three benchmarks within striking distance of all‑time highs. ^[3]
Small caps hit a new record, as the Russell 2000 outperformed on optimism about lower interest rates. ^[4]
Labor data sent mixed signals: jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 2022, while announced layoffs for 2025 are the highest since the pandemic. ^[5]
Markets are pricing in roughly an 87% chance the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting, with Friday’s PCE inflation report seen as the last big hurdle. ^[6]
Retail and tech were the main story on the day—Dollar General, Meta, Salesforce and Hormel rallied, while Amazon, Kroger and Snowflake weighed on parts of the market. ^[7]
After the bell, traders focused on earnings from DocuSign, SentinelOne, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and other software and AI names, which triggered sharp individual moves despite solid headline numbers. ^[8]

How Wall Street closed today

By the close of trading:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
- 47,850.94, down 31.96 points (‑0.07%) ^[9]
S&P 500 Index
- 6,857.12, up 7.40 points (+0.11%) ^[10]
Nasdaq Composite
- 23,505.14, up 51.04 points (+0.22%) ^[11]
Russell 2000 (small caps)
- Around 2,531, up 0.8%, marking a new all‑time closing high. ^[12]

Breadth was modestly positive: advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by about 1.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.4 to 1 on the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 logged more new 52‑week highs than lows. ^[13]

According to multiple market reports, the S&P 500 now sits roughly 0.5% below its record, while the Dow and Nasdaq are each within 1–2% of their all‑time closing highs, underscoring how far the market has come since the volatility earlier this year. ^[14]

Labor market data muddies the Fed picture

The US labor market was the day’s big macro story—and it delivered a very mixed message.

Jobless claims hit a three‑year low

A Labor Department report showed:

Initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 191,000 last week
That’s the lowest level since September 2022
Economists had expected around 220,000 claims ^[15]

Economists noted that seasonal quirks around the Thanksgiving holiday likely exaggerated the drop, but the data still point to a labor market that is weakening only gradually, not collapsing. ^[16]

Continuing claims—the number of people already receiving unemployment benefits—slipped to about 1.94 million, suggesting people who lose jobs are still having a harder time finding new ones than earlier in the cycle. ^[17]

Layoffs are elevated, even as claims stay low

At the same time, a separate report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas found:

71,321 job cuts announced in November,
Up 24% from a year earlier
Down 53% from October’s spike, but
Year‑to‑date layoffs exceed 1.17 million, the highest level since 2020 ^[18]

Much of that pain remains concentrated in technology and white‑collar roles, where companies are restructuring and integrating AI, but the headline numbers reinforce a picture of a job market that is loosening slowly, not crashing. ^[19]

Why this matters for the Fed

Because of a record 43‑day US government shutdown, the official November payrolls report has been delayed to December 16, after next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. ^[20]

That means policymakers—and traders—are leaning more heavily than usual on ADP private payrolls, alternative employment trackers, and weekly claims to guess where the labor market is heading.

Today’s combination of very low claims but historically high announced layoffs keeps the Fed in a tricky spot:

Weakening job growth and heavier layoff announcements support the case for a rate cut
Still‑low unemployment claims argue against panic easing

One economist quoted by Reuters warned that alternative labor measures may be overstating the weakness, while others flagged that the job market for college‑educated workers has cooled notably. ^[21]

Rate‑cut odds, yields and other macro moves

Markets firmly expect a December rate cut

Futures traders tracked by the CME FedWatch tool now put the odds of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut next week at roughly 87%, up from around 69% a month ago. ^[22]

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—hits tomorrow, and consensus forecasts call for annual inflation of around 2.8%, still above the Fed’s 2% target but consistent with a slow disinflation trend. ^[23]

Analysts note that even a 0.1‑point surprise in the PCE data could jolt markets and potentially nudge expectations for the pace of cuts in 2026. ^[24]

Treasury yields tick higher

Bond markets were relatively calm but 10‑year Treasury yields edged up to about 4.10% from 4.06% on Wednesday, as investors weighed the low jobless claims against ongoing talk of rate cuts. ^[25]

Global yields, including Japan’s government bond yields, also moved higher, continuing a theme of modestly tighter financial conditions even as equities remain close to records. ^[26]

Crypto, commodities and the dollar

According to live markets coverage:

Bitcoin traded near $92,500, still well above Monday’s slump below $85,500
The US dollar index was about 0.2% stronger around 99.1
WTI crude oil futures gained roughly 1.2% to around $59.65
Gold futures edged up 0.2% toward $4,240 an ounce ^[27]

The takeaway: risk assets remain surprisingly resilient despite high rates, elevated but easing inflation, and increased layoffs.

Winners and losers: small caps, retail and AI mega‑caps

Small caps lead on rate‑cut enthusiasm

Small‑cap stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to borrowing costs, outperformed again. The Russell 2000’s 0.8% jump to a record 2,531 is part of a broader rebound that has seen smaller companies claw back years of underperformance versus the mega‑cap giants. ^[28]

Strategists at Bank of America recently argued that Fed rate cuts and a stronger capital‑spending cycle could drive small‑cap outperformance in 2026—a thesis today’s move seemed to support. ^[29]

Magnificent 7: Meta and Salesforce shine, Amazon lags

Among the tech and AI heavyweights:

Meta Platforms jumped about 3.4%, after a Bloomberg report suggested it may cut spending on its Metaverse projects by up to 30%, reallocating resources toward AI initiatives that are already boosting ad targeting and engagement. ^[30]
Salesforce surged around 3.7%, making it the top Dow performer, as investors cheered strong guidance and robust growth in its AI‑driven Agentforce platform despite revenue that came in slightly shy of estimates. ^[31]
Nvidia gained roughly 2%, extending its rebound and helping keep the broader tech complex supported. ^[32]
Amazon, however, slipped roughly 1.4%, acting as one of the key drags on the S&P 500 after it disclosed ongoing talks with the US Postal Service about their future relationship ahead of a major contract expiration. ^[33]

The pattern reinforces a familiar theme of 2025: AI and cash‑rich platforms are rewarded, while even small clouds over future growth—for Amazon’s logistics or Meta’s metaverse bets—create meaningful stock swings.

Retail and staples: Dollar General soars, Kroger sinks

Consumer‑facing names delivered some of the day’s biggest single‑stock moves:

Dollar General jumped about 14% after raising its annual profit forecast, signaling that value‑focused shoppers continue to trade down. ^[34]
Hormel Foods climbed roughly 3.8% after issuing a profit outlook above expectations, helped by strong demand for its Planters nuts and Jennie‑O turkey brands. ^[35]
Kroger tumbled about 4.6% as revenue missed estimates and management narrowed its sales outlook, stoking concerns about grocery pricing power and competition. ^[36]

In the tech infrastructure space, Snowflake fell around 11% after its product‑revenue forecast underwhelmed high expectations, underscoring how unforgiving the market remains when guidance fails to keep up with AI‑driven hype. ^[37]

After the bell: DocuSign, SentinelOne and HPE drive earnings drama

Once the closing bell rang, attention quickly shifted to a cluster of software, cybersecurity and infrastructure earnings that could influence sentiment into Friday.

DocuSign: strong quarter, cautious guidance

DocuSign (DOCU) delivered better‑than‑expected Q3 FY26 results:

Adjusted EPS: about $1.01 vs roughly $0.92 expected
Revenue: around $818 million, up 8.4% year‑on‑year and above the ~$807 million consensus
Q4 revenue guidance: about $825–829 million, only slightly above current levels and essentially in line—if not fractionally below—Wall Street estimates
Full‑year revenue guidance: roughly $3.208–3.212 billion, aligning with the ~$3.2 billion analyst consensus
New share‑repurchase authorization:$1 billion ^[38]

Despite what would ordinarily be considered a “beat and raise” quarter, DocuSign shares fell roughly 4% in after‑hours trading as investors focused on muted forward guidance and ongoing questions about growth in the e‑signature market. Several analysts trimmed price targets and described the stock as stuck in a “penalty box” until management proves it can re‑accelerate bookings. ^[39]

SentinelOne: profitability milestone, but stock drops on guidance and CFO exit

Cybersecurity firm SentinelOne (S) reported a standout Q3 FY26, but the market response was chilly:

Adjusted EPS:$0.07 profit vs expectations for a $0.17 loss
Revenue:$258.9 million, up 23% year‑on‑year and ahead of estimates
Annual recurring revenue (ARR): about $1.06 billion, also up 23%
Non‑GAAP operating margin:7%, signaling profitability arrived ahead of schedule ^[40]

Yet the stock slid around 8% after hours as investors digested:

Guidance for Q4 operating margin of about 5%, down from 7% in Q3
Revenue guidance near $271 million, a touch below some forecasts
News that CFO Barbara Larson is stepping down, raising questions about execution during a critical transition period ^[41]

The reaction underscores how high‑growth cybersecurity names are now held to a high bar on profitability and visibility, not just top‑line growth.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise: EPS beat, revenue miss

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) also reported after the bell:

Adjusted EPS: about $0.62, topping estimates near $0.58
Revenue: roughly $9.7 billion, up 14% year‑on‑year but shy of the $9.9 billion analysts were looking for ^[42]

Shares traded lower in after‑hours action as investors focused on the revenue shortfall and cautious commentary around certain enterprise segments, suggesting that even in the AI and cloud era, legacy infrastructure demand remains uneven. ^[43]

Other notable movers

Elsewhere in the extended session:

Coverage from market commentators highlighted Rubrik (RBRK) surging on strong AI‑related earnings and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) jumping on robust demand and upbeat guidance. ^[44]

Together, tonight’s earnings reinforce a key theme: beating expectations is no longer enough—Wall Street wants confident, growth‑oriented guidance and clear evidence that AI and cloud investments are translating into durable profitability.

What Wall Street is watching next

With today’s session and after‑hours fireworks behind them, investors now face a critical 48‑hour stretch:

Friday’s PCE inflation report
- Core PCE around 2.8% year‑on‑year would support a December cut but leave the Fed cautious.
- A hotter print could push back expectations for the pace of easing in 2026; a cooler print could ignite a rally in rate‑sensitive sectors like small caps, financials and real estate. ^[45]
Federal Reserve meeting next week (December 10)
- Futures markets almost fully price a 25‑basis‑point cut, which would bring the fed funds rate into roughly the 3.5–3.75% range.
- According to Goldman Sachs Research, the “working assumption” is that the Fed will slow its pace of easing in early 2026, potentially pausing in January before further cuts in March and June, ultimately targeting a 3–3.25% terminal rate if growth and inflation cooperate. ^[46]
Medium‑term outlook for 2026 Goldman Sachs expects US growth to accelerate to about 2–2.5% in 2026, helped by easing tariffs, tax cuts and looser financial conditions, while core PCE inflation gradually drifts closer to 2%. But their economists also warn that labor‑market weakness—especially for college‑educated workers—could force deeper cuts if it worsens, even if headline inflation remains under control. ^[47]

On the equity side, strategists from several firms argue that:

Small caps and cyclicals could be relative winners if rate cuts arrive and growth holds up. ^[48]
High‑multiple AI and software stocks may stay volatile, as investors scrutinize every earnings call for proof that AI investments are generating sustainable margins, not just buzz. ^[49]

Bottom line for investors

Today’s US stock market close on December 4, 2025 was deceptively quiet on the surface—indexes barely moved, but key labor‑market data, rate‑cut expectations and after‑hours earnings continued to reshape the outlook for 2026.

The economy appears to be cooling, not crashing.
The Fed is still on track to cut rates next week, but the path beyond December is uncertain.
Small caps and select AI winners are in favor, while companies offering even slightly disappointing guidance are punished quickly.

As always, this coverage is for information only and is not investment advice. But heading into Friday’s PCE report and next week’s Fed decision, one thing is clear: the calm at today’s close may not last long.