Data and news current to 5 December 2025. This article is general information, not financial advice.
Whitehaven Coal share price today: near the top of its range
Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX: WHC) spent early Friday trading near the top of its 12‑month range, changing hands around A$7.7 per share in afternoon trade. StockAnalysis data at 1:20pm AEST shows the stock at A$7.67, up more than 4% on the day, with a market capitalisation of about A$6.1 billion and a trailing P/E ratio around 9.2x. [1]
Over the past year, WHC has traded roughly between A$4.22 and A$7.52, so the current price leaves the shares hovering very close to their 52‑week high. [2] That strength comes against a backdrop of solid energy‑sector performance on the ASX, with coal and gas names again among the market’s better‑performing groups in late 2025. [3]
Income investors still eye Whitehaven as a dividend stock, but the yield is now modest rather than eye‑popping. A recent survey of top ASX dividend shares puts WHC’s yield around 2–2.5%, noting that its payouts have been highly variable and tightly linked to coal price cycles. [4]
Put simply: Whitehaven today looks more like a mid‑cap, moderately valued coal producer at cycle‑mid prices than a distressed bargain or a speculative flyer.
Fresh news: Whitehaven steps up its on‑market share buyback
The most immediate news around Whitehaven Coal this week is all about capital management.
Daily buyback notices and Appendix 3C
On 2, 3 and 4 December, Whitehaven lodged a string of ASX notices:
- Notification of buy‑back and updates confirming ongoing on‑market repurchases. [5]
- A separate “notification of cessation of securities” on 2 December confirming that shares purchased between late October and early December have now been cancelled. [6]
The detail sits in an Appendix 3C filing released this week. Since 22 August 2025, Whitehaven says it has bought back about 4.5 million shares for a total cost of roughly A$30.8 million. [7]
A separate update published via TipRanks on 3 December notes that on one recent day alone the company repurchased about 74,500 ordinary shares, and a further update on 5 December reports a similar daily volume, bringing total recent purchases to just over 275,000 shares in a handful of days. [8]
With roughly 790 million shares on issue at current prices, the buyback so far equates to around 0.5–0.6% of the register—not enormous, but not trivial either. [9]
What the buyback signals
Whitehaven is explicit that the buyback is part of its broader capital allocation framework, which targets returning 40–60% of underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) via a mix of dividends and repurchases. That framework was upgraded at the FY25 results in August, up from the previous 20–50% payout band. [10]
In practical terms, the buyback:
- Reduces share count, making earnings per share and dividends per share slightly more robust over time.
- Offsets dilution from employee schemes and prior capital raisings.
- Signals management confidence that the shares are reasonably valued (or undervalued) versus long‑term fundamentals.
The catch: Whitehaven is simultaneously running net debt and facing chunky deferred payments on its Queensland acquisitions. So each dollar spent on buybacks is a dollar not spent on deleveraging – which is precisely why some brokers have turned more cautious on the stock this year.
Earnings recap: FY25 and Q1 FY26 show scale – and cyclicality
FY25: Revenue surges, profit compresses
On 21 August 2025, Whitehaven reported FY25 underlying NPAT of A$319 million and underlying EBITDA of A$1.4 billion, broadly flat versus FY24 on an EBITDA basis but with profit squeezed by lower prices and higher costs. [11]
Key FY25 metrics:
- Revenue A$5.8 billion, up 53% year‑on‑year, driven largely by the first full‑year contribution from the Daunia and Blackwater mines in Queensland.
- ROM managed production 39.1 Mt, up 60% vs FY24 (20.0 Mt from QLD, 19.1 Mt from NSW).
- Revenue mix shifted to ~64% metallurgical coal, 36% thermal, at an average realised price of A$215/t. [12]
- Net debt at 30 June 2025: ~A$0.6 billion, after paying the first US$500m deferred instalment to BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) and before the second US$500m due in April 2026. [13]
Despite the profit drop (underlying NPAT fell around 57% from the prior year’s ~A$740m), management leaned into shareholder returns:
- Total FY25 capital returns of up to A$191 million, including fully franked dividends of 15c per share and an on‑market buyback of up to A$48m over six months. [14]
Q3 FY25: Strong quarter and temporary net cash
Back in April, Whitehaven’s Q3 FY25 (March 2025 quarter) attracted attention after:
- Managed production hit 9.2 Mt, with equity sales of 6.3 Mt.
- Metallurgical coal made up 61% of revenue, underscoring the portfolio pivot away from purely thermal coal.
- The balance sheet briefly flipped from ~A$1 billion net debt to roughly A$300m net cash, following proceeds from selling a 30% stake in Blackwater. [15]
Management kept full‑year production and cost guidance intact and flagged that both run‑of‑mine volumes and unit costs were tracking towards the favourable ends of their guidance ranges. [16]
Q1 FY26 (September 2025 quarter): Softer volumes, tight cost control
The September 2025 (Q1 FY26) quarterly report, released on 24 October, painted a picture of a large but still bedding‑down business: [17]
- TRIFR (safety metric) improved to 3.6.
- Managed ROM production: 9.0 Mt (down 15% vs the June quarter).
- Equity sales of produced coal: 5.9 Mt (down just 1%).
- Queensland (Daunia + Blackwater): 4.7 Mt ROM, 3.0 Mt equity sales; average met coal price about A$200/t.
- New South Wales: 4.4 Mt ROM, 2.8 Mt equity sales; average thermal coal price about A$175/t, at ~105% of the benchmark NEWC index.
- Continued progress on a cost‑out program targeting A$60–80m of annualised savings by 30 June 2026.
- Net debt around A$0.8 billion at 30 September, reflecting ongoing payments tied to the Queensland assets and softer coal pricing.
Guidance for FY26 remains:
- Managed ROM production 37–41 Mt, equity sales 23.3–26.1 Mt.
- Unit cash cost (ex‑royalties) A$130–145/t, capex A$340–440m. [18]
In short: operationally solid, financially stretched but not distressed, and still very sensitive to the coal price roller‑coaster.
Strategy: from thermal coal producer to met‑coal “mini‑major”
The structural story behind Whitehaven’s numbers is its pivot into metallurgical coal.
Daunia and Blackwater: the transformational deal
In October 2023, Whitehaven agreed to buy 100% of the Daunia and Blackwater mines in Queensland from BHP Mitsubishi Alliance for total consideration of about US$3.2 billion, including US$2.1b upfront and staggered deferred payments. [19]
Since then:
- The deal completed in April 2024, with Whitehaven paying BMA US$2.0b plus adjustments, and later making the first US$500m deferred payment in FY25. [20]
- Whitehaven sold 30% of Blackwater to Nippon Steel (20%) and JFE Steel (10%) for around US$1.1 billion, recycling capital while keeping operatorship and majority exposure to met‑coal upside. [21]
As a result, FY25 revenue was 64% metallurgical coal, and Q3 FY25 saw met coal comprising 61% of quarterly revenue. [22]
That shift matters: metallurgical coal is tied to steel demand, not electricity generation. It is still a fossil fuel with serious climate implications, but in investor narratives it often gets framed as “harder to replace quickly” than thermal coal.
Narrabri Stage 3: extending NSW production
On the NSW side, Whitehaven’s Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project received Federal Government approval in 2024, and the company formally commenced Stage 3 operations on 1 August 2025. [23]
Stage 3 is designed to extend mine life and production at Narrabri—supporting higher long‑term utilisation of Whitehaven’s NSW infrastructure but also drawing intense scrutiny from climate and community groups.
Between:
- Daunia/Blackwater in Queensland,
- Narrabri Stage 3 in NSW, and
- The existing Maules Creek and other Gunnedah Basin assets,
Whitehaven has effectively re‑tooled itself into a two‑state, met‑heavy coal producer with multiple large, long‑life operations and a renewed pipeline of growth capex.
Valuation, dividends and balance sheet
With the stock trading around A$7.7, what are investors paying for?
Multiples and earnings power
Different data providers peg WHC’s current valuation slightly differently, but they all agree it’s no longer on a nosebleed multiple:
- P/E ~9.2x (trailing) according to StockAnalysis, with revenue about A$5.8b and market cap A$6.1b. [24]
- Earlier in 2025, when earnings had not yet caught up with the share price, some commentators noted a P/E above 30x; the combination of higher FY25 profit and a modest price pullback has compressed that dramatically. [25]
Given the heavy weighting to coal, this is not a “growth tech” valuation – it’s more akin to a cyclical commodity producer in mid‑cycle, albeit with meaningful balance‑sheet leverage.
Dividend yield and payout policy
As at late November, researchers at Finder put Whitehaven’s dividend yield around 2.16%, explicitly flagging that its payout pattern has been volatile and heavily price‑driven. [26] Brokerage platform Stake, looking at the live yield in early December, shows a similar ~2.0% figure. [27]
Key dividend facts from FY25:
- Total FY25 dividend: 15c per share fully franked, including a final 6c. [28]
- Combined with buybacks, Whitehaven returned about 60% of underlying NPAT to shareholders in respect of FY25, at the top of its new 40–60% payout range. [29]
The flip side: with net debt of ~A$0.8b at September 2025 and another US$500m deferred payment due in April 2026, generous capital returns inevitably trade off against faster deleveraging. [30]
Broker and analyst sentiment: upbeat, but not euphoric
Individual broker calls in 2025
Broker views on Whitehaven in 2025 have been… let’s call it “cautiously enthusiastic”:
- Citi downgraded WHC from Buy to Neutral in August, citing higher‑than‑expected net debt (~A$0.6b) and weaker coal prices, even while nudging its target price up to A$7.10. [31]
- Bell Potter cut its rating from Buy to Hold in late July, trimming its target from A$7.10 to A$6.90 after a strong share‑price run, despite remaining upbeat on metallurgical coal demand. [32]
- A brokers’ round‑up in early August reported that, across major houses, Whitehaven sat at 3 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell recommendations, with most concerns centred on free cash flow and leverage rather than operational performance. [33]
That’s the equity‑research world’s polite way of saying: “We like the business, but the price is doing a lot of the work.”
Consensus targets and ratings as at December 2025
Across the bigger data aggregators:
- Investing.com collates views from 14 analysts and classifies the consensus rating as “Buy”, split roughly between buys and holds. The average 12‑month price target is about A$7.41, with estimates ranging from A$5.60 to A$9.00. [34]
- Fintel puts the one‑year average target at about A$7.45, based on a similar set of broker forecasts. [35]
- TipRanks’ Australia‑focused data gives WHC an average target around A$7.49, again implying single‑digit percentage upside from levels that prevailed before this week’s rally. [36]
With the shares now hovering around A$7.7, the stock is trading slightly above the current consensus target range. In other words, the analyst community sees limited near‑term upside at today’s price – but also isn’t screaming “sell”.
(For completeness: the US OTC ticker WHITF carries a lone “Hold” rating and a technically nonsensical zero price target on MarketBeat, a reminder that US data feeds for small foreign names can be more noise than signal. [37])
ESG tensions, super funds and public pressure
Coal is not just another commodity; it’s a political and ethical lightning rod. Whitehaven sits right in the beam.
AustralianSuper controversy
In June 2025, The Guardian reported that AustralianSuper, one of Australia’s largest superannuation funds, had quietly rebuilt a large position in Whitehaven after previously divesting in 2020. [38]
Key points from those disclosures:
- AustralianSuper now holds about 70.9 million shares, or 8.47% of Whitehaven’s register.
- The stake, worth around A$395 million, makes AustralianSuper one of the company’s largest shareholders.
- Environmental groups accused the fund of greenwashing, arguing that backing Whitehaven’s expansion could ultimately enable up to 5 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions over the life of its coal projects.
AustralianSuper’s defence was telling: it argued that Whitehaven’s acquisition of BHP’s metallurgical coal assets changed the company’s revenue profile and made it “more attractive”, given met coal’s role in steelmaking. [39]
The message: some large investors are willing to hold coal exposure if they can frame it as “transition‑critical” (steel) rather than purely “burn it for power”.
Queensland royalties and investment drift
On the policy front, the Queensland coal royalty regime has become a major headache for producers:
- Argus Media reports that Queensland coal exploration spending in Q3 2025 fell for the fifth consecutive quarter, with year‑to‑date exploration down 22% vs 2024, citing weak prices and high royalties. [40]
- The state’s progressive royalty system can see effective rates jump to around 40% once coal prices cross certain thresholds. Whitehaven’s CEO Paul Flynn has reportedly called the regime “borderline madness”, arguing it pushes future investment towards New South Wales instead of Queensland. [41]
Argus also notes that Whitehaven itself has told investors the royalty structure encourages it to direct capital away from Queensland, reinforcing the idea that fiscal policy is shaping the company’s growth map as much as geology is. [42]
All of this feeds back into the investment case: ESG and policy risk are not abstract – they potentially influence costs, mine lives, financing costs and who is actually willing to own the stock.
Key risks and catalysts for Whitehaven Coal shares
Strip away the ticker codes and acronyms and Whitehaven is still, at heart, a leveraged bet on two things: coal prices and policy tolerance.
Here are the main moving pieces:
- Coal price volatility
Premium Australian metallurgical coal fell from about US$200/t in January to US$166/t in March 2025, before recovering to around US$189/t by the end of September. [43] Small price moves can have outsized impacts on Whitehaven’s cash flow, especially once Queensland’s progressive royalties kick in. - Debt and deferred payments
With ~A$0.8b net debt and a US$500m deferred BMA payment due in April 2026, the balance sheet is solid but not bulletproof. A prolonged downturn in coal prices could force a rethink on buybacks, dividends or capex timing. [44] - Execution on cost‑out and operations
Whitehaven is targeting A$60–80m of annualised cost savings by June 2026 and has already removed about A$100m of annual costs from Queensland operations by mid‑2025. [45] Missing those targets would erode the margin buffer against weaker prices. - Regulatory and climate policy risk
Projects like Narrabri Stage 3 and ongoing Queensland operations sit squarely in the crosshairs of climate litigation, state royalties and future federal policy. Even with approvals in hand, conditions can tighten over time. [46] - Investor base and ESG screening
The AustralianSuper saga shows that large pools of capital are divided on coal exposure. A change in sentiment—either way—can move the share price independently of fundamentals.
On the catalyst side, things to watch in coming quarters include:
- The December and March quarterly production reports, tracking whether WHC can hit the top end of FY26 guidance. [47]
- Any expansion or extension of the buyback beyond the current A$48m FY25 program and the new August‑to‑December run rate. [48]
- Movements in met coal prices and any revision of Queensland royalties after 2028 – not imminent, but constantly debated. [49]
Bottom line: what 5 December 2025 tells us about Whitehaven Coal stock
As of early December 2025, Whitehaven Coal shares are priced like a mature, cyclical miner at close to fair value:
- The share price has rallied to near record highs and now sits slightly above consensus 12‑month targets. [50]
- The business has scaled up dramatically, with met coal now the main revenue driver and a diversified, multi‑mine portfolio in NSW and Queensland. [51]
- Capital returns are real—dividends plus buybacks are meaningful—but they are being balanced against non‑trivial leverage and big ticket deferred payments. [52]
- Policy and ESG pressures are nowhere near resolved; they’re simply being priced in by investors who think coal still has a long, messy runway in the global energy and steel mix. [53]
Whether that combination makes WHC a buy, hold or sell will depend on each investor’s view of coal prices, climate policy, and risk tolerance. From a news perspective, though, 5 December 2025 marks a clear theme: Whitehaven is doubling down on its met‑coal strategy, shrinking its share count via buybacks while running a sizeable debt tab, and trying to convince the market that those two things can comfortably coexist.
References
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