Mumbai | December 5, 2025
Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE: BAJFINANCE) traded around ₹1,045.60 on Friday morning, up about 1.6% versus the previous close and sitting not far below its 52-week high, extending a powerful ~51% year‑to‑date rally in 2025. [1]
The move comes on a day when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a surprise 25 bps repo rate cut to 5.25%, alongside liquidity-boosting bond purchases and a USD/INR swap, and just days after Bajaj Finance sold a small stake in its housing finance subsidiary to meet minimum public shareholding norms. [2]
With fresh macro tailwinds, a recent capital move, and a still‑expensive valuation, investors are asking the obvious question: how much juice is left in the Bajaj Finance rally?
Bajaj Finance share price today: near the top of its 2025 range
As of around 10:17 am IST on December 5, Bajaj Finance was trading at ₹1,045.60, up 1.61% on the day. The stock’s 52‑week range currently runs from about ₹648 on the downside to roughly ₹1,102 on the upside, putting today’s price close to the upper end of the band. [3]
Key snapshot metrics today:
- Year‑to‑date return (2025): ~51%
- 5‑day return: roughly ‑0.45%
- Three‑month return: about 10% [4]
- Market capitalisation: around ₹6.5 lakh crore
- TTM P/E: ~34×, versus a sector average near 29×
- Dividend yield: ~0.4%
- Debt‑to‑equity: roughly 3.1× [5]
Intraday commentary from the Economic Times live blog notes that Bajaj Finance has been trading above key resistance levels and shows a six‑month beta of about 1.5, underscoring how sharply it tends to move when the broader market swings. [6]
Within the Nifty 50, Bajaj Finance has been one of 2025’s star performers. A recent Livemint analysis highlighted that the stock is up about 50% this year, leading gains among index constituents and showcasing how bullish sentiment towards quality non‑bank lenders has been. [7]
Macro tailwind: RBI’s December rate cut and earlier risk‑weight relief
A surprise 25 bps cut – finally some relief on borrowing costs
On December 5, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, with a unanimous vote. The central bank also announced ₹1 lakh crore of open‑market bond purchases and a three‑year USD/INR swap of $5 billion to inject liquidity, while sharply lowering its FY26 inflation projection to 2.6% from earlier guidance of around 4.2%. [8]
For lenders like Bajaj Finance, this matters in three ways:
- Lower marginal funding costs over time as banks re‑price liabilities.
- Support for credit growth, especially in rate‑sensitive segments like consumer durables, home loans and SME credit.
- A friendlier equity‑market backdrop as lower rates typically support higher valuation multiples for financials.
The impact won’t be instant – NBFC borrowing costs adjust with a lag – but the direction is clearly positive for spreads and growth.
Earlier easing of risk weights: a quieter but important positive
The December cut sits on top of a regulatory U‑turn from early 2025. After tightening norms in November 2023, the RBI rolled back higher risk weights on banks’ exposures to NBFCs and microfinance loans in February 2025, restoring a more favourable capital treatment. [9]
In plain English:
- Banks now need less capital against loans to well‑rated NBFCs (A– and above).
- That makes it easier and cheaper for banks to lend to names like Bajaj Finance.
For a funding‑hungry, fast‑growing NBFC‑UL (upper‑layer NBFC) such as Bajaj Finance, these moves lower the long‑term cost of funds and support balance‑sheet expansion, even if some categories like unsecured personal loans remain under tighter scrutiny.
Stake sale in Bajaj Housing Finance: capital unlocking, but short‑term pain in the subsidiary
What exactly did Bajaj Finance sell?
On December 1, newly listed Bajaj Housing Finance (BHFL) informed exchanges that promoter Bajaj Finance planned to sell up to 2% stake (about 16.66 crore shares) in one or more tranches to help the subsidiary meet minimum public shareholding (MPS) norms. Based on then‑prevailing prices, the sale was estimated at roughly ₹1,740 crore. [10]
A day later, on December 2, Bajaj Finance executed a large bulk deal, offloading around 2% stake at ₹95.3074 per share and raising about ₹1,588 crore in cash. Its holding in BHFL dropped from 88.7% to 86.7%, still firmly in the “majority control” zone. [11]
Management has framed the move as primarily regulatory housekeeping – increasing free float and complying with the MPS requirement – rather than a strategic exit from housing finance.
Market reaction: BHFL hit, Bajaj Finance stable
The immediate reaction, however, was more dramatic in the subsidiary:
- Bajaj Housing Finance shares dropped about 9%, hitting a 52‑week low near ₹94.9 on December 2.
- The Times of India notes that this came despite an 18% year‑on‑year rise in Q2FY26 net profit, as the heavy block trade raised concerns about near‑term supply and sentiment. [12]
For Bajaj Finance shareholders, the implications are subtler:
- Positives:
- Raises over ₹1,500 crore of capital that can support core lending growth or strengthen the balance sheet.
- Progress towards regulatory compliance at BHFL removes an overhang.
- Negatives / trade‑offs:
- Slightly reduces Bajaj Finance’s economic share of BHFL’s future earnings.
- The sharp fall in BHFL’s price indicates that the market is still digesting the stake sale, which could limit perceived value from the housing finance listing in the near term.
Net‑net, the transaction looks capital‑accretive but not game‑changing, and it doesn’t alter the consolidated growth story in a big way.
Q2 FY26 scorecard: growth solid, but credit costs and guidance in focus
Strong top‑line and profit growth
For the July–September quarter of FY26 (Q2FY26), Bajaj Finance reported:
- Profit after tax up roughly 22% year‑on‑year to about ₹4,875 crore, broadly in line with Street estimates.
- Net interest income (NII) growing in the low‑20s percentage range year‑on‑year, supported by double‑digit loan growth.
- Assets under management (AUM) growth of around 24–25% year‑on‑year, with secured loans growing faster than some legacy unsecured segments. [13]
In other words, the NBFC is still growing much faster than the banking system, and its quarterly earnings remain firmly in expansion mode.
Asset quality: still strong, but moving off the absolute bottom
Bajaj Finance’s asset quality remains one of the cleanest in the NBFC universe, but the direction of travel is worth watching:
- Gross NPA (GNPA) inched up versus last year, to a little above 1.2%.
- Net NPA remained under 1%, still very comfortable. [14]
Brokerage commentary, including from CLSA, flags that Q2FY26 was a “good” quarter across key metrics – growth, margins, and fee income – but asset quality trends were somewhat mixed, with pockets of stress in MSME and certain auto/2‑wheeler loans. Management continues to guide for full‑year credit cost of about 1.85–1.95%, but has cut loan growth guidance to around 22–23% to stay ahead of risk. [15]
Separately, Reuters recently highlighted that Bajaj Finance’s November guidance cut on asset growth, triggered by rising bad loans and intensifying competition, led to a ~7% one‑day share price fall and reminded investors that this is still a high‑beta, cycle‑sensitive stock. [16]
Funding and margins: deposit repricing supports NIMs
On the liability side, Bajaj Finance has been gradually cutting fixed deposit rates through 2025 – including a third round of reductions mid‑year that also narrowed the additional benefit for senior citizens. [17]
Cheaper deposits, combined with a more favourable risk‑weight regime for bank borrowings, are helping:
- Offset rising competition in unsecured loans, where yields have moderated.
- Support net interest margin (NIM) stability even as the balance sheet tilts more towards secured products like home and auto loans.
How analysts see Bajaj Finance now: quality, but priced for it
Consensus view: high quality, limited near‑term upside
According to Livemint’s broker aggregation:
- The average rating on Bajaj Finance is “Hold”.
- Among 33 analysts, there are 5 strong buys, 9 buys, 13 holds, 5 sells, and 1 strong sell – a fairly balanced distribution. [18]
Trendlyne’s share‑price‑target summary shows that Bajaj Finance has an average target of about ₹1,082.86, based on 32 long‑term target reports from 12 analysts. That implies a consensus upside of roughly 4% from the latest traded price around ₹1,045. A fresh consensus entry dated December 5, 2025 pegs the “blended” target near ₹1,074 with an overall “Hold” stance. [19]
In short, the Street is constructive on the business, cautious on the valuation.
More bullish voices: Axis Securities, CLSA and others
Not everyone is lukewarm, though:
- An Axis Securities December picks list includes Bajaj Finance among its top large‑cap ideas, with a target price of ₹1,200, implying double‑digit upside from current levels. The note highlights Bajaj Finance’s diversified lending franchise, digital capabilities and strong brand as reasons to stay overweight. [20]
- A CLSA strategy piece covered by the Times of India maintains an “Outperform” rating with a ₹1,200 target, arguing that Q2FY26 was strong across most parameters – steady AUM growth (~24% YoY), largely stable NIMs, and better‑than‑expected fee income – even as it acknowledges a slightly more cautious loan‑growth outlook. [21]
Other Indian brokerages tracked by Trendlyne (Motilal Oswal, Axis Direct, BOB Capital, Sharekhan and others) generally value Bajaj Finance at around 3.9–4.9× FY27E adjusted book value, a premium that reflects:
- The company’s structural growth runway in consumer and SME credit.
- Its granular, diversified loan book and strong deposit franchise.
- Its track record of high‑teens to low‑20s return on equity (RoE). [22]
The catch, of course, is that such a premium requires consistently clean execution; any wobble on asset quality or growth tends to be punished quickly, as November’s sell‑off demonstrated.
Growth drivers: why the long‑term story still looks compelling
Recent analysis of Bajaj Finance’s next three years of growth points to a multi‑engine model rather than dependence on a single product. Key levers highlighted in broker and media commentary include: [23]
- Digital ecosystem and app engagement
Bajaj Finance has leaned aggressively into app‑based journeys, EMI cards, and digital originations. A higher share of end‑to‑end digital loans helps:- Reduce operating cost per loan.
- Improve cross‑sell (insurance, cards, deposits, investments).
- Tighten risk filters using real‑time behaviour data.
- Expansion in secured products
Mortgages already form a sizeable part of the consolidated AUM, and management is pushing deeper into home loans, loan‑against‑property and auto finance. These products:- Carry lower credit cost than pure unsecured personal loans.
- Benefit directly from lower interest‑rate cycles like the one RBI just kicked off.
- SME and commercial lending
Despite some MSME stress, this segment remains structurally under‑penetrated in India. Bajaj Finance’s combination of data, distribution and cross‑sell into existing customers positions it well to keep growing thoughtfully in this space. - Deposits and liability diversification
As one of India’s largest deposit‑taking NBFCs, Bajaj Finance has been steadily increasing the share of retail deposits in its funding mix. Cheaper, stickier deposits:- Improve margin resilience.
- Reduce dependence on wholesale bank borrowings and bond markets.
- Index membership and institutional flows
Bajaj Finance is a constituent of both Nifty 50 and key financial sector indices, which keeps it front‑and‑centre for domestic and global funds benchmarking to these indices. [24]
These factors help explain why, even after a 50% rally in 2025, many houses still see Bajaj Finance as a core structural financials play in India.
Key risks: rich valuations, regulatory overhang, and credit cycle sensitivity
No blue‑chip is risk‑free, and Bajaj Finance carries its own set of known and emerging risks:
- Valuation risk
- Regulatory scrutiny
- Bajaj Finance is one of the RBI‑designated NBFC‑Upper Layer entities, subject to tighter norms.
- In November 2023, the RBI temporarily banned the company from issuing loans under its “eCOM” and “Insta EMI Card” products due to compliance issues; the restrictions were lifted in 2024, but they remain a cautionary tale on regulatory risk. [27]
- Policy changes around unsecured lending, risk weights or digital‑lending guidelines can directly affect growth and capital requirements – as seen in the 2023–25 risk‑weight cycle. [28]
- Credit cycle and competition
- Reuters has already flagged an asset‑growth guidance cut and rising bad loans as reasons for a sharp stock correction in November. [29]
- Aggressive competition from banks and fintechs in personal loans, BNPL (buy now, pay later) and SME lending could pressure yields and force Bajaj Finance to pick between growth and margin.
- Subsidiary dynamics
- While Bajaj Housing Finance is performing adequately, the sharp post‑stake‑sale correction shows investors can be sensitive to supply and to any perceived shift in promoter commitment or growth visibility. [30]
Bottom line: Is Bajaj Finance stock a buy after the latest rally?
Putting it all together:
- Business quality: Still among the strongest in India’s NBFC space – diversified book, strong brand, deep distribution, robust profitability, and improving funding profile.
- Macro backdrop: RBI’s rate cut and earlier risk‑weight easing create a more supportive environment for well‑run lenders like Bajaj Finance. [31]
- Valuation & expectations: The stock already discounts high‑teens to low‑20s growth and best‑in‑class RoE, and Street targets imply only modest upside from current levels. [32]
For long‑term investors who are comfortable with credit‑cycle risk and can tolerate volatility, Bajaj Finance continues to look like a high‑quality compounder, but one that is priced closer to perfection than to distress. For shorter‑term traders, the combination of high beta, rich valuation and frequent regulatory headlines means that 10–15% price swings should be considered normal noise, not anomalies.
As always, this is information, not investment advice. Anyone considering Bajaj Finance – or any other stock – should look at their own risk tolerance, time horizon and asset allocation, and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser before making decisions.
References
1. www.livemint.com, 2. www.moneycontrol.com, 3. www.livemint.com, 4. www.livemint.com, 5. www.livemint.com, 6. m.economictimes.com, 7. www.livemint.com, 8. www.moneycontrol.com, 9. www.khaitanco.com, 10. www.moneycontrol.com, 11. www.moneycontrol.com, 12. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 13. m.economictimes.com, 14. m.economictimes.com, 15. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. economictimes.indiatimes.com, 18. www.livemint.com, 19. trendlyne.com, 20. m.economictimes.com, 21. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 22. trendlyne.com, 23. www.livemint.com, 24. en.wikipedia.org, 25. www.livemint.com, 26. trendlyne.com, 27. en.wikipedia.org, 28. bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 31. www.moneycontrol.com, 32. trendlyne.com


