As of 5 December 2025, Anglo American plc sits at the centre of one of the biggest shake‑ups the global mining industry has seen in a decade. The FTSE 100 miner’s share price is hovering around 2,950p, close to its 12‑month high just above 3,000p, after a year defined by a failed BHP takeover, a transformational merger deal with Teck Resources, and an aggressive restructuring of its portfolio. [1]
Below is a structured look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis investors are watching today.
Share price today: near 12‑month highs after a strong rebound
The latest available data show Anglo American’s London‑listed shares trading around 2,950p, up roughly 20% over the past 12 months and near the top of a one‑year range of about 1,900p to just over 3,000p. [2]
Short‑term momentum is clearly positive:
- The stock gained 0.79% on 4 December 2025, closing at 2,950p from 2,927p the day before.
- It has risen in 7 of the last 10 trading days, adding about 7.8% over the past two weeks. [3]
Technical analysts at StockInvest.us still classify the shares as a “Buy candidate”, noting:
- A strong rising short‑term trend,
- Buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages,
- A model that projects ~11.9% upside over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly 2,929p and 3,582p. [4]
That said, they also flag falling volume on rising prices as a classic divergence warning – a hint that shorter‑term traders may want to watch for a pause or pullback.
From failed BHP mega‑bid to the Teck “merger of equals”
The core narrative around Anglo American has flipped in the last few weeks.
BHP walks away — for now
On 24 November 2025, BHP formally abandoned its latest attempt to buy Anglo American, just two weeks before shareholder votes on Anglo’s planned merger with Teck Resources. [5]
Key points from Reuters and other coverage:
- BHP’s final offer was around $53–60 billion (≈£40 billion), mostly in shares with some cash, aimed at consolidating copper assets. [6]
- Under the UK Takeover Code, BHP’s withdrawal triggers a six‑month standstill: the group cannot make another bid for Anglo until late May 2026 unless certain exceptions apply (for example, if Anglo’s board invites talks or another bidder emerges). [7]
- Analysts widely view BHP’s retreat as reducing “interloper risk” and clearing the path for the Teck deal, at least in the near term. [8]
For Anglo shareholders, that means the takeover premium embedded in the share price through much of 2024–25 has largely evaporated. The story is no longer “Will BHP overpay?” but “Can Anglo execute its own copper‑heavy strategy?”
The Teck merger: building “Anglo Teck”
On 9 September 2025, Anglo American and Teck Resources announced an agreement to combine in a “merger of equals” to form Anglo Teck, a new global critical‑minerals group headquartered in Canada but with primary listing in London. TS2 Tech+1
According to deal documents and company statements, the combined group would: TS2 Tech+2Reuters+2
- Be a top‑five global copper producer,
- Target around 1.2 million tonnes of copper production at closing, rising to about 1.35 million tonnes in 2027,
- Generate over 70% of EBITDA from copper, with the remainder largely from zinc and premium iron ore,
- Aim for roughly US$2.2 billion in annual synergies (US$800m recurring plus project‑related EBITDA synergies).
Shareholder economics (based on current terms):
- Anglo shareholders are expected to own about 62–63% of the combined company and receive a one‑time special dividend. [9]
- Teck shareholders would hold roughly 37–38%. TS2 Tech+1
The deal is pitched squarely as a play on the looming “copper crunch”: multiple independent analyses project double‑digit percentage increases in global copper demand by the mid‑2030s, with new mine supply lagging. TS2 Tech+1
9 December votes and the 5 December proxy deadline: immediate catalysts
Shareholder meetings next week
Anglo’s general meeting and Teck’s special shareholder meeting are both scheduled for 9 December 2025, to approve the merger. TS2 Tech+2Teck Resources Limited+2
For Teck:
- Teck’s own circular and press releases emphasise that the board unanimously recommends voting FOR the merger. [10]
- The proxy voting deadline is 11:00 a.m. PST on 5 December 2025, making today the last day many institutional investors can lodge their votes. [11]
Proxy advisers, investor pushback and executive pay
Proxy advisory giants ISS and Glass Lewis have recommended that Teck shareholders vote in favour of the merger, providing important air cover for management. [12]
However, not everything is smooth:
- Canadian Mining Journal reports significant investor concern about the absence of a takeover premium, the possible removal of Teck from key Canadian indices, and the effective loss of a “national champion” to a London‑incorporated group. [13]
- Some large holders and advisory bodies have urged investors to vote against elements of Anglo’s proposed executive incentive plan, arguing that rewarding management simply for completing the merger is bad practice, even if they support the transaction itself. [14]
Taken together, the picture is of a deal that is more likely than not to pass, but with enough tension that last‑minute shifts in voting blocs could matter.
Canada’s national security review: process vs. rumours
Officially, Canada’s industry minister Mélanie Joly said on 26 November that the Anglo‑Teck merger would undergo a national security review under the Investment Canada Act, focusing on critical minerals like copper and germanium. [15]
- Ottawa has signalled it wants strong commitments on Canadian jobs, investment and control of critical‑mineral supply chains before giving full approval. [16]
A later report in Canadian Mining Journal, citing unnamed sources and referencing local media, suggests that national‑security concerns may already have been cleared, as the initial 45‑day review window reportedly expired without extension. [17]
These accounts are not formally reconciled yet. The safest reading is:
- Regulatory risk has narrowed but not disappeared. Canada, plus competition authorities in the US, EU, China and other jurisdictions, can still attach conditions or delays even if pure “national security” objections are off the table.
Restructuring the portfolio: slimming down to copper, iron ore and crop nutrients
While the Teck merger grabs headlines, Anglo has spent the last two years remodelling itself.
Platinum: demerger and residual stake
Anglo has already demerged its platinum arm, now trading as Valterra Platinum (formerly Anglo American Platinum), and plans to reduce its remaining stake to about 19.9%, with a view to eventual exit. [18]
The demerger:
- Frees up capital and management bandwidth,
- Reduces exposure to volatile platinum‑group metals,
- Fits the strategy of concentrating on long‑term demand themes like electrification and food security.
De Beers: Angola and Botswana circle the diamond prize
The diamond business is also on the chopping block:
- In October, Angola’s state‑owned Endiama submitted a “concrete and well‑defined proposal” to buy a majority stake in De Beers from Anglo, while Botswana has signalled it wants to increase its own holding above the current 15%. [19]
- Anglo has previously said that De Beers is “in process of separation,” whether via sale, spin‑off, or some hybrid. TS2 Tech+1
Any deal here will be politically delicate: De Beers straddles multiple governments, long‑term supply contracts and social‑license questions. But a successful exit would move Anglo further away from discretionary consumer demand and deeper into “infrastructure metals”.
Nickel: EU scrutiny of the MMG sale
In February 2025, Anglo agreed to sell its Brazilian nickel business to MMG, a miner controlled by China Minmetals, as part of its non‑core disposals. TS2 Tech
The transaction is now under an in‑depth investigation by the European Commission, which worries that MMG could redirect low‑carbon ferronickel away from European stainless‑steel producers, potentially raising costs and hurting competition. [20]
- Brussels has 90 working days, until 20 March 2026, to decide.
- The review introduces a regulatory overhang: failure or heavy conditions on the sale could complicate Anglo’s balance‑sheet and portfolio plans.
Steelmaking coal: Peabody threatens to walk
Over in coal, US miner Peabody Energy has warned that it may terminate a deal to buy some Anglo coal assets, citing concerns around a mine fire at Moranbah North in Australia. [21]
This highlights a broader risk:
- Anglo wants out of steelmaking coal, both for ESG and capital allocation reasons.
- But asset quality, safety issues and market conditions could force it to compromise on price or timing to complete exits.
Chilean copper: Codelco partnership boosts Teck logic
In September, Anglo and Chile’s state‑owned Codelco finalised a plan to jointly operate their Los Bronces (Anglo) and Andina (Codelco) mines in central Chile. [22]
The joint venture aims to:
- Boost copper production by around 120,000 tonnes a year,
- Deliver at least US$5 billion in value from higher output and cost savings over about two decades,
- Share incremental pre‑tax benefits equally between Anglo’s local unit and Codelco. [23]
Los Bronces is also part of the Anglo‑Teck combination, making Chile a critical testing ground for both synergies and ESG performance (the mine has previously faced environmental pushback over water and glacier impacts).
Financial performance in 2025: a painful transition year
Anglo’s 2025 financials so far are the “hangover” that explains both the restructuring and the merger drive.
According to Anglo’s interim results and media coverage: [24]
- H1 2025 revenue fell about 7% year on year to roughly US$9.0bn.
- Underlying EBITDA dropped around 20% to about US$3.0bn.
- EBITDA margin compressed from roughly 37% to 32%.
- Underlying EPS slid from US$0.71 to US$0.32 (‑55%).
- Anglo reported a net loss of about US$1.9bn, wider than the US$0.7bn loss a year earlier, driven by impairments and restructuring charges.
- The interim dividend was slashed to US$0.07 per share, from US$0.42 a year earlier, as management moved to a 40% payout ratio on underlying earnings.
TIKR’s breakdown highlights that:
- De Beers swung from a US$300m EBITDA profit to a US$189m loss,
- Copper EBITDA fell 14% on weaker volumes in Chile,
- Iron ore held up relatively well, with EBITDA roughly flat around US$1.4bn. [25]
The good news: cost control and capital discipline are actually working.
- Anglo delivered US$1.3bn of cumulative cost savings by mid‑2025 toward a US$1.8bn target. TS2 Tech+1
- Free cash flow improved to around US$322m, up nearly 70% year on year, as capex fell and working capital was released. [26]
- Net debt is about US$10.8bn, with net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA around 1.8x – not trivial, but manageable for a diversified major if asset sales and the Teck merger proceed. [27]
In short, 2025 is exactly what management has labelled it: a transition year.
Valuation, dividends and balance sheet snapshot
At roughly 2,950p per share, the market is paying a lot more for Anglo than it was at the start of the year, but not obviously pricing in a blue‑sky scenario.
Multiples and relative value
Data from FT, Simply Wall St and other providers suggest: [28]
- Anglo trades on about 1.6x price‑to‑sales, cheaper than the peer average around 2.7–3.6x for large global miners.
- Trailing P/E is negative on some datasets (due to recent losses) and very high on others (where one‑off charges are stripped differently), but forward P/E generally sits in the low‑20s or higher, implying the market expects a significant earnings rebound.
- The shares trade near 2x book value on some South African metrics, broadly in line with the idea that investors are paying for the asset base and copper growth options more than recent profits.
This mix – cheaper than peers on sales, more expensive on earnings – is what you see when a cyclical business is coming off a trough and selling optionality.
Dividend: from income stock to growth‑optional play
Anglo used to be a go‑to dividend name. That’s not the case right now.
- Recent data from Wisesheets, Morningstar and GuruFocus cluster Anglo’s trailing dividend yield below 1%, typically around 0.8–0.9%, with some variation by market and share line. [29]
- StockInvest’s dividend history shows an August 2025 payout of 5.29p per share and a tiny March distribution, far below the 30‑plus‑pence semi‑annual dividends of 2023–24. [30]
The upshot:
- Anglo is no longer an income stock in the traditional sense.
- Management is clearly prioritising balance‑sheet resilience, portfolio reshaping and the Teck deal over high near‑term cash returns.
What are analysts and models saying about Anglo American stock?
Analyst and model views are surprisingly consistent in one respect: they don’t see enormous upside from today’s price unless the Teck merger and restructuring deliver smoothly.
Consensus price targets: low‑single‑digit upside
Different aggregators paint a similar big picture:
- ValueInvesting.io:
- Average 12‑month target: 2,974.57p,
- Range: 2,020p–3,675p,
- Implied upside: ~2.9%,
- Consensus rating: HOLD from 26 analysts (mix of hold, buy and strong‑buy; no formal sells). [31]
- Financial Times forecasts:
- Median 12‑month target around 3,000p,
- High estimate near 3,500p, low around 2,000p,
- Implied upside of roughly 2% versus a 2,950p last price. [32]
- Simply Wall St:
- Current share price: about £28.6,
- Average target: £29.1,
- Implied upside: ~1.8%,
- Notes Anglo’s price‑to‑sales multiple is below peers, suggesting some relative value even if headline upside is small. [33]
Broker calls: split between cautious and constructive
Broker‑specific data show more colour:
- JPMorgan raised its Anglo target from 2,760p to 3,220p on 4 December, keeping a “neutral” rating — implying roughly 11% upside from the prior close. [34]
- Berenberg has a 3,100p target and a “buy” rating. [35]
- MarketBeat’s snapshot of five London brokers shows:
- Consensus “Hold”,
- Average target around 2,624p, actually below the current price,
- Two Buys vs three Holds. [36]
For the US ADRs (NGLOY/AAUKF), US‑based analysts cluster around low‑$20s price targets, with some longer‑term scenarios pointing higher if copper demand surprises on the upside. TS2 Tech+1
Technical models: bullish into early 2026
Purely technical models like StockInvest’s are more optimistic in the near term:
- They project ~12% upside over three months, assuming the current rising trend persists and support around 2,892p holds. [37]
But those models don’t “know” about shareholder votes, regulators or politics. They just see trend, momentum and support/resistance levels.
Key risks and opportunities for 2026
At today’s price, the market seems to be saying: “We get the copper story, but we want to see you actually pull it off.”
Big opportunities
- Copper super‑cycle exposure
- If long‑term forecasts of a structural copper shortfall prove right, Anglo Teck could be exceptionally well placed, with large brownfield expansion options and diversified jurisdictions. TS2 Tech+2Reuters+2
- Synergies and cost savings
- The merger promises billions in synergies, on top of Anglo’s own cost‑cutting. If executed well, that could drive a step‑change in EBITDA without proportional capex.
- Portfolio clean‑up
- Successful sales of De Beers, steelmaking coal and nickel at decent valuations would simplify the story and could fund growth projects while keeping leverage in check. [38]
- Optionality on future M&A
- Once BHP’s standstill expires, a cleaner, stronger Anglo Teck could again become takeover bait — or itself a consolidator.
Major risks
- Deal risk: Teck merger rejection or heavy conditions
- Execution risk on asset disposals
- EU scrutiny of the MMG nickel sale and Peabody’s threat to exit the coal deal show that non‑core exits are not guaranteed and might demand price concessions or structural tweaks. [41]
- Commodity and macro volatility
- Anglo’s profitability is highly sensitive to copper and iron‑ore prices. A global growth wobble, China slowdown or delayed energy‑transition spending could significantly dent earnings just as the group takes on integration and restructuring costs. [42]
- ESG and licence‑to‑operate
- Projects like Los Bronces and the Woodsmith fertiliser mine in the UK are complex, politically visible and environmentally sensitive. Cost blowouts or community opposition could chew up the capital that is supposed to power the growth story. [43]
- BHP or other majors re‑entering the frame later
- Another bid after the standstill could be good news (premium) or bad news (strategic limbo) depending on the price and how much Anglo has already invested in integrating Teck.
Bottom line for 5 December 2025: priced for “prove it”
Put together, the current situation looks like this:
- The stock has already rerated — up about 20% year on year and trading near its 12‑month high. [44]
- Consensus 12‑month targets cluster only slightly above today’s price, in the low single digits, with broker views ranging from mild downside to low‑double‑digit upside. [45]
- Dividends have been sharply cut; this is now primarily a restructuring and copper‑growth equity, not an income vehicle. [46]
- Short‑term technicals are supportive, with trend‑following models seeing scope for further gains into early 2026. [47]
For investors, Anglo American on 5 December 2025 is essentially a high‑beta bet on three things:
- The Teck merger closes on current or better terms,
- The portfolio simplification (De Beers, coal, nickel, platinum) is executed cleanly and at reasonable valuations,
- The expected copper‑heavy future actually arrives on roughly the timeline the industry is betting on.
This article is informational, not investment advice. Anyone considering Anglo American or the future Anglo Teck should think hard about their risk tolerance, time horizon, and how much faith they place in both the copper super‑cycle narrative and management’s ability to execute an unusually complex corporate transformation.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. markets.ft.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.teck.com, 11. www.teck.com, 12. www.teck.com, 13. www.canadianminingjournal.com, 14. www.canadianminingjournal.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.canadianminingjournal.com, 18. www.thetimes.co.uk, 19. www.gurufocus.com, 20. europeansting.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.tikr.com, 26. www.tikr.com, 27. www.tikr.com, 28. markets.ft.com, 29. www.wisesheets.io, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. valueinvesting.io, 32. markets.ft.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. stockinvest.us, 38. www.gurufocus.com, 39. www.canadianminingjournal.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. europeansting.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. markets.ft.com, 45. valueinvesting.io, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. stockinvest.us
