Imperial Brands PLC Stock on 5 December 2025: Near 52‑Week Highs, £1.45bn Buyback and 2030 Strategy

Data and market information in this article are up to date as of 5 December 2025.

Where Imperial Brands’ Share Price Stands Today

Imperial Brands PLC (LON: IMB; OTCMKTS: IMBBY, IMBBF) heads into 5 December 2025 trading very close to its 12‑month highs in both London and New York.

On the London Stock Exchange, recent data show Imperial Brands closing at around 3,300p on 4 December, after trading in a daily range of roughly 3,238p–3,307p and gaining nearly 1% on the day. Over the past week the share price has risen steadily, extending a rally that has pushed the stock towards the top of its 52‑week range of about 2,521p–3,315p. ^[1]

Analytics site MarketBeat reported that earlier this week Imperial Brands hit a new 52‑week high of 3,279p, with around 10.7 million shares changing hands, and now carries a market capitalisation in the region of £26–27 billion. ^[2]

In the US, the main ADR (ticker IMBBY) closed at $43.93 on 4 December, up 0.87% and marking the fourth consecutive daily gain. The ADR has climbed in seven of the last ten sessions and now trades close to its own 52‑week high of $44.10, versus a 52‑week low near $30.24, giving an estimated market value of about $35.9 billion. ^[3]

Short version: Imperial Brands’ stock is not in “deep value” territory anymore. It has re‑rated sharply from its 2020–2021 lows and now trades right near multi‑year highs.

Why the Stock Is Rallying: Strong FY25 Results and Bigger Buybacks

The main catalyst behind the latest move has been full‑year 2025 results, released on 18 November 2025 – the first set of annual numbers under new CEO Lukas Paravicini. ^[4]

For the year to 30 September 2025, Imperial Brands delivered:

Tobacco & next‑generation product (NGP) net revenue of £8.32bn, up 4.1% at constant currency. ^[5]
NGP net revenue (vapes, heated tobacco and oral nicotine) up around 13–14% at constant currency, to about £368m. ^[6]
Group adjusted operating profit of roughly £3.99bn, up 4.6% at constant currency and slightly ahead of consensus forecasts. ^[7]
Adjusted EPS growth of about 9.1%. ^[8]
Free cash flow of approximately £2.7bn, up £0.3bn year on year, with cash conversion close to 97%. ^[9]

Reuters summarised the performance as Imperial “beating profit forecasts” and confirming guidance for 3–5% annual profit growth and ongoing share buybacks through 2030, as it leans on both price increases in traditional cigarettes and growth in alternatives like Pulze heated tobacco, blu vapour products and Zone nicotine pouches. ^[10]

From a fundamentals perspective, FY25 looks exactly like what many income‑focused investors want from a mature tobacco name: modest revenue growth, steady margin expansion, strong cash generation and disciplined capital returns.

Dividend Story: Still One of the FTSE 100’s Higher Yields

Income remains at the centre of the Imperial Brands investment case.

For FY25, the company raised its dividend by 4.5% to a total of 160.32p per share, and moved to four equal quarterly payments from FY25 onwards. ^[11]

Based on a share price around 3,300p, that implies a trailing dividend yield close to 4.8–5.1%, depending on the precise price point and data source – broadly in line with Imperial’s own presentation, which cited a 5.1% yield at a slightly lower mid‑November share price. ^[12]

On the US OTC market, recent dividend declarations for IMBBY show four payments in 2025 of roughly $0.50–0.68 per ADR, with the most recent dividend of $0.52 ex‑dividend on 28 November 2025 and payable on 8 January 2026. ^[13]

Imperial has a stated policy of progressive dividend growth, with increases “taking into account underlying business performance” but no intention to cut the distribution in normal conditions. ^[14]

£1.45 Billion Share Buyback: Evergreen Capital Returns

Beyond the dividend, buybacks have become the other engine of Imperial’s cash‑return machine.

At its March 2025 Capital Markets Day, Imperial announced a new “evergreen” share buyback programme running annually through 2030, alongside a progressive dividend and a leverage target at the lower end of 2.0–2.5x net debt/EBITDA. ^[15]

For FY26, the board has authorised a £1.45bn repurchase, equivalent to roughly 5.7% of share capital at current prices. ^[16]

That programme is already under way:

A 4 December 2025 “Transaction in Own Shares” RNS shows Imperial buying 130,595 shares at an average price of 3,287.01p, with the shares to be cancelled. After this transaction, shares in issue fell to 799,552,248 (excluding treasury shares). ^[17]
Additional RNS notices in early December detail further daily buybacks as Morgan Stanley executes the programme on the company’s behalf. TechStock²+1

Management highlights that from FY21 to FY25, Imperial has generated over £11.6bn of cumulative free cash flow and returned an estimated £10bn to shareholders via dividends and buybacks – a figure representing more than two‑thirds of its January 2021 market capitalisation, according to coverage of the evergreen buyback in the financial press. ^[18]

For investors, that combination of a near‑5% dividend yield and a multi‑year buyback equates to a double‑digit annual cash‑return yield, assuming the programmes continue as signalled.

Strategy to 2030: Cash Cows, Pouches and Data

The 2030 strategy, unveiled at the Capital Markets Day in March 2025, is central to understanding how Imperial is trying to earn that growing stream of distributions. ^[19]

Key planks include:

Drive sustainable value from combustibles
Imperial will continue to focus on its five largest cigarette markets – the US, Germany, UK, Spain and Australia – which account for roughly 70% of adjusted tobacco operating profit. The objective is to maintain aggregate market share across these markets and use pricing to support earnings and cash flow as volumes decline. ^[20]
Build scale in next‑generation products (NGP)
Imperial is building out three NGP categories: blu in vapour, Pulze in heated tobacco and Zone in oral nicotine. NGP revenue grew double‑digits in FY25, and the company is now rolling out an improved pouch format across Europe while launching Zone in new geographies. ^[21]
Invest in brands, people and data
The group has created a Global Consumer Organisation and is rolling out a new ERP system and global business services model. The strategy aims to deliver about £320m of annualised cost savings by 2030, with most of the £600m cash cost incurred in FY27–FY28 and treated as adjusting items. ^[22]
Medium‑term guidance
Imperial’s medium‑term CAGR targets on a constant‑currency basis are:
- Low‑single‑digit combustible revenue growth
- Double‑digit NGP revenue growth
- 3–5% annual growth in group adjusted operating profit
- High‑single‑digit adjusted EPS growth, supported by share count reduction
- £2.2–£3.0bn of free cash flow per year ^[23]

Consensus forecasts published on Imperial’s own investor site are broadly aligned with this picture: analysts expect tobacco and NGP net revenue to grow around 3% in FY25, moderating slightly thereafter, with adjusted EPS rising from roughly 313.5p in FY25 to 376.6p by FY27. ^[24]

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Modest Upside from Here

Sell‑side sentiment is constructive but not euphoric.

Investing.com’s consensus, based on 12 analysts, shows: ^[25]

Overall rating: “Buy” (9 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell)
Average 12‑month price target: 3,445.83p
Target range: 2,700p–4,200p
Implied upside from a spot price around 3,310p: roughly 4%

MarketBeat reports similar numbers for Imperial’s LSE listing: an average price target of 3,562.50p, again with a range of 2,700p–4,200p, which equates to about 8% upside from roughly 3,300p. The site also notes recent target updates from Citigroup, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, and pegs the current P/E ratio at around 11x with return on equity above 40%. ^[26]

On valuation metrics, several independent commentators and platforms describe Imperial Brands as still cheap relative to global consumer staples, but much less of a “fallen angel” than it was a few years ago. TS2.tech’s recent deep‑dive characterises the shares as trading on roughly 10x adjusted FY25 earnings, with a 4.9–5.1% dividend yield and a 10%+ total cash‑return yield once buybacks are included. TechStock²

Short‑Term Technical View and Quant Models

Technical and quantitative services remain broadly positive on Imperial Brands in early December:

StockInvest.us rates the ADR IMBBY as a short‑term “Buy candidate”, highlighting:
- A closing price of $43.93 on 4 December, up 0.87%
- Gains in seven of the last ten days, up 3.6% over two weeks
- Buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages
- Support around $41.39 and $40.39 based on accumulated volume
- A relatively low day‑to‑day volatility profile
  The site estimates that, under its model, IMBBY has a 90% probability of trading between $39.61 and $44.08 over the coming three months, with a forecast “fair opening price” near $43.99 for 5 December. ^[27]
WalletInvestor, which uses purely technical algorithms, lists IMBBF (another US line) at $44.87 as of 5 December and projects a long‑term move to around $79.40 by late 2030, implying a potential five‑year price gain of roughly 77% before dividends. Monthly forecasts show a steady, incremental price rise rather than dramatic swings. ^[28]

These models are based on past price behaviour and technical patterns rather than fundamental analysis. They can be useful as one input but should not be treated as guarantees – especially in a sector as politically and legally exposed as tobacco.

Fresh News Flow: Litigation, Regulation and New Nicotine Pouches

The bullish numbers sit alongside a busy – and sometimes uncomfortable – news backdrop.

US litigation: Florida settlement and nicotine pouch dispute

Imperial’s US subsidiary ITG Brands is still entangled in a long‑running legal dispute over responsibility for tobacco settlement payments in Florida.

In March 2025, a Delaware court ordered ITG Brands to reimburse Reynolds American $251.5m for payments Reynolds made to Florida on brands it had sold to ITG in 2015. ITG has appealed that ruling to the Delaware Supreme Court, with arguments scheduled for late 2025. ^[29]
More recently, Canadian nicotine pouch maker TJP Labs filed a lawsuit in Delaware Chancery Court alleging that Imperial and its affiliates breached minimum‑purchase agreements tied to Imperial’s expansion into the US oral nicotine market. The complaint accuses Imperial of trying to recast binding purchase commitments as non‑binding “forecasts,” allegedly to avoid milestone payments. ^[30]

While these cases are manageable relative to Imperial’s cash flow, they add uncertainty to the group’s otherwise tidy capital‑return narrative.

UK regulation: Tobacco and Vapes Bill and retail licensing

In the UK, Imperial is actively lobbying around the government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill and a proposed retail licensing scheme for nicotine products:

Industry outlets report that Imperial has urged retailers to respond to a government call for evidence on a new licensing framework for nicotine sales across England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The consultation closed on 3 December 2025. ^[31]
The company has also publicly supported tougher penalties for retailers who sell vapes to minors, arguing that proposed fines of around £200 are too low and should be raised to levels seen in countries like New Zealand, where maximum penalties can reach tens of thousands of pounds. ^[32]

Future UK rules on vape flavours, disposable products and licensing could materially affect Imperial’s NGP economics – both positively, if illicit and non‑compliant competition is curbed, and negatively, if regulation becomes overly restrictive.

NGP expansion: ZONE nicotine pouches in the UK

On the product front, Imperial is pushing ahead with its Zone nicotine pouch brand:

In mid‑November, the company announced the UK launch of ZONE nicotine pouches, targeting the mainstream 9–12mg strength segment with five flavours at a recommended retail price of £6.50 per can. The launch leans on data showing that mint flavours dominate UK pouch sales, but fruit flavours are gaining share. ^[33]
Imperial’s own brand materials note that Zone has already been rolled out in the US modern oral market, with distribution expanding to more than 70,000 US stores by 2025. ^[34]

Zone, blu and Pulze are central to Imperial’s ambition to build a “meaningful NGP business” that can one day offset at least part of the structural decline in cigarettes.

Key Risks the Market Is Pricing In

Despite the recent outperformance and rising price targets, Imperial Brands remains a controversial stock. Recent research and commentary, including long‑form pieces summarised on TS2.tech, highlight a cluster of structural risks: TechStock²+1

Declining cigarette volumes
Combustibles still generate the vast majority of Imperial’s profit. Even with strong pricing power, sustained volume declines can eventually overwhelm price/mix if regulators tighten further or illicit trade grows.
Regulation and taxation
Imperial faces ongoing regulatory uncertainty in key markets – from menthol bans and plain packaging to potential flavour restrictions and excise hikes on both combustibles and NGP. UK nicotine licensing and upcoming vape duties from 2026 are immediate examples. ^[35]
Litigation
The Florida settlement and TJP Labs pouch dispute underline that legacy and new‑category litigation can surface at any point, potentially absorbing management time and cash. ^[36]
ESG and investor exclusion
Many institutional investors have strict policies that exclude tobacco entirely, regardless of valuation. That ESG overhang can keep multiples depressed compared with other high‑cash‑flow consumer staples, even when operational performance is strong. TechStock²+1
Execution in NGP
Imperial is a latecomer in several reduced‑risk categories and competes against much larger rivals with heavier R&D budgets. Building scale in NGP without destroying margins is a delicate balancing act. ^[37]

These risks help explain why, despite solid numbers and generous distributions, Imperial Brands still trades on a single‑digit to low‑double‑digit earnings multiple.

Imperial Brands Stock Today: A High‑Yield Cash Machine With Real Baggage

Pulling the threads together, the investment setup for Imperial Brands PLC on 5 December 2025 looks something like this:

Financial delivery
- Mid‑single‑digit profit growth and high‑single‑digit EPS growth in FY25
- Robust free cash flow and leverage at the low end of the target range ^[38]
Capital returns
- Dividend yield around 5% with a progressive policy
- A multi‑year, £1.45bn‑per‑year “evergreen” buyback in motion, shrinking share count and boosting EPS ^[39]
Valuation and forecasts
- P/E around 10–11x recent earnings, below many global staples
- Analyst targets implying low‑ to mid‑single‑digit upside over 12 months
- Technical and quant models skewing positive in the near term and projecting steady appreciation over five years, though on purely algorithmic grounds ^[40]
Risk profile
- A sector in structural decline with heavy regulatory, fiscal and legal headwinds
- Ongoing litigation and evolving nicotine regulation that could alter cash‑flow trajectories in key markets ^[41]

For income‑oriented investors who are comfortable owning tobacco, Imperial Brands in late 2025 represents a classic “high‑yield cash machine”: near‑record share price, robust dividends, sizeable buybacks and a management team promising steady, measurable growth rather than headline‑grabbing reinvention.

For others – especially those with ESG, ethical or regulatory concerns – the stock may remain a permanently discounted cash generator rather than a core long‑term holding, regardless of how well the numbers stack up.

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Imperial Brands PLC Stock on 5 December 2025: Near 52‑Week Highs, £1.45bn Buyback and 2030 Strategy – What Investors Need to Know