LONDON, 5 December 2025 – Compass Group PLC’s share price is hovering just above its 52‑week low even after the world’s largest contract caterer delivered another year of double‑digit profit growth and attracted a wave of broker upgrades. That tension – strong fundamentals vs. weak share price – is exactly what makes Compass one of the more interesting large‑cap consumer names to watch right now.
As of the close on 4 December 2025, Compass Group shares finished at 2,360p on the London Stock Exchange, up 1.42% on the day but still down from highs of 2,853p earlier in the year. [1]
Below is a breakdown of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis relevant on 5 December 2025 for investors tracking Compass Group stock (LON: CPG, OTC: CMPGY).
Share price snapshot: near the bottom of the range
- Last close (4 Dec 2025): 2,360p
- 52‑week range: 2,324p – 2,853p [2]
- Market cap (London listing): c. £40bn
- Valuation: P/E around 27x, PEG ratio ~1.4, beta below 1, according to recent MarketBeat data. [3]
Technical analysis site StockInvest.us describes Compass Group as sitting in the lower part of a wide, falling short‑term trend, despite the recent bounce. Their model expects the share price to trade mostly between roughly 2,190p and 2,420p over the next three months, with an overall negative short‑term evaluation. [4]
In other words: the market is treating Compass like a slightly sleepy defensive stock at the same moment brokers are getting more excited about its long‑term growth story. That disconnect underpins a lot of the current research.
FY 2025 results: another year of double‑digit profit growth
Compass reported full‑year 2025 results (year to 30 September) on 25 November 2025, delivering numbers that broadly beat expectations: [5]
- Underlying revenue: $46.1bn, up 9.4% (constant currency)
- Organic revenue growth:8.7%, driven by:
- Net new business: 4.5%
- Pricing: ~3%
- Like‑for‑like volume growth: ~1%
- Underlying operating profit: $3,335m, up 11.7% (constant currency)
- Underlying operating margin:7.2% (up 10 bps vs. 7.1%)
- Underlying EPS: 131.9c, up ~11% on a constant‑currency basis
- Free cash flow (underlying): $1,975m, up 13.5%
- Return on capital employed (ROCE): 18.2%
Management highlighted that net new business has sat in the 4–5% range for four consecutive years, with a client retention rate above 96%, reinforcing the idea that Compass is steadily grabbing share in a still‑fragmented global food services market. [6]
On the earnings call, CEO Dominic Blakemore described 2025 as “another great year” with profit up nearly 12% and free cash flow topping $2bn for the first time – and he framed the current trajectory as a “growth algorithm” the group expects to compound over the long term. [7]
The board proposed a full‑year dividend of 65.9c per share, up 10.2% year‑on‑year, consistent with its policy of distributing around half of underlying earnings. [8]
Strategic moves: Vermaat and European expansion
A key strategic highlight in 2025 was the agreement to acquire Vermaat Groep B.V., a premium food services business in Europe, for about €1.5bn (c. $1.8bn), subject to regulatory approvals. [9]
- Vermaat is targeting roughly €700m in 2025 sales with double‑digit operating margins. [10]
- Compass sees the deal as a way to deepen its premium hospitality offering and expand its addressable market in Europe.
Alongside Vermaat, Compass spent about $1.3bn on acquisitions overall in FY 2025 and $1.5bn in capex, much of it aimed at technology, digital ordering, and operational efficiency. Net debt increased to $6.4bn, taking net debt/EBITDA to 1.4x – still within management’s target range of 1–1.5x and consistent with maintaining strong investment‑grade credit ratings. [11]
2026 guidance: growth moderates as inflation cools
For the new financial year, Compass is guiding to: [12]
- Organic revenue growth: ~7%
- Underlying operating profit growth: ~10%
- Additional ~2% profit contribution expected from M&A (including Vermaat)
- Continued modest margin expansion
The market reaction to that guidance was initially muted to negative. Reuters reported that shares fell about 3% on results day, with investors focusing on the slower revenue growth outlook vs. the 8.7% delivered in 2025 and the impact of moderating inflation on pricing. [13]
CFO Petros Parras told analysts that inflation is slowing slightly faster than previously assumed, meaning Compass will pass some of those lower costs back to clients, which mechanically reduces top‑line growth even if volumes stay healthy. [14]
On the call, management also flagged: [15]
- Interest expense rising to around $350m in FY 2026 (from $315m) as a result of higher debt and rates.
- Underlying tax rate sticking at ~25.5%.
- Leverage temporarily nudging above the mid‑target range due to M&A before trending back down.
So the growth story is intact, but the “easy” tailwind from high inflation‑driven price increases is fading, and leverage/interest are both a touch higher – nuances investors are clearly wrestling with.
Broker views: RBC calls the pull‑back “appetising”, JPMorgan goes overweight
The last couple of weeks have seen a cluster of upgrades and reiterated Buy ratings from major brokers:
- RBC Capital Markets upgraded Compass to “Outperform” on 1 December 2025, lifting its price target from 2,700p to 2,775p. RBC argued that recent concerns around consumer pressure, AI disruption and GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs have become “overdone”, and that the pull‑back in the share price offers an “appetising entry” point. [16]
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reissued an “Overweight” rating on 3 December 2025 with a 3,100p target, implying more than 33% upside from a previous close of 2,327p. [17]
- Other brokers including Berenberg, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, UBS, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies are also on the positive side, typically with targets in the 2,700–3,000p range. [18]
According to MarketBeat, seven analysts currently rate the stock “Buy”, with an average target of about 2,962.5p, roughly 25–26% above the latest London close. [19]
MarketScreener’s global consensus, which includes the US‑traded ADR, shows a mean “Outperform” rating from 19 analysts, with an average target of $37.66 vs a last ADR close of $31.51 – about 19.5% implied upside – and a high target of $42.74. [20]
What RBC’s numbers are baking in
RBC’s detailed note (via Investing.com and MarketScreener coverage) assumes: [21]
- Mid‑term revenue growth around 6%, slightly below management’s “mid‑to‑high single digit” aspiration.
- Underlying EBIT margin progressing from around 7.2% to the mid‑7s over the next few years.
- EPS rising from roughly 132c in FY 2025 to 146c in 2026 and 161c in 2027.
The bank also emphasises:
- A global total addressable market (TAM) in contract catering of roughly $360bn, with Compass still at only mid‑teens percentage share.
- Structural outsourcing tailwinds (companies and public institutions continuing to shift in‑house catering to specialists).
- A relatively resilient demand backdrop even in a slower macro environment, given Compass’s exposure to healthcare, education and workplace dining for major corporates.
Fundamental picture: quality, cash and a lot of runway
Several data providers currently paint Compass as a high‑quality compounder rather than a deep value play:
- GuruFocus gives Compass a GF Score of 88/100, with strong marks for profitability and growth. [22]
- Free cash flow conversion remains robust, with underlying FCF of $1.975bn equating to nearly 88% conversion. [23]
- Net debt/EBITDA of 1.4x leaves room for bolt‑on acquisitions and steady buybacks/dividends without threatening the balance sheet. [24]
From a business‑model perspective, Compass keeps pushing three big levers:
- Net new business – winning outsourcings from in‑house providers and smaller competitors.
- Scale & procurement – using size to drive better purchasing terms and margins.
- Technology & data – digitising ordering, forecasting and kitchen operations to squeeze more productivity out of each site. [25]
Management also stresses sustainability as a competitive advantage: in 2025, Compass cut its overall greenhouse gas intensity by 11% year‑on‑year, launched a deforestation‑free sourcing policy, and reiterated its commitment to net‑zero by 2050, arguing that large institutional clients increasingly see these credentials as table stakes when awarding tenders. [26]
Short‑term technical view: bounce off support, but trend still soft
On the technical side, StockInvest’s model currently classifies Compass Group as a sell candidate in the short term, despite the recent 1.42% daily gain: [27]
- The share price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, down about 3.4% over that period.
- The stock sits in the lower part of a falling short‑term trend channel, and their statistical model points to roughly –5.8% expected move over the next three months.
- Short‑term moving averages flash a buy signal, but the longer‑term average still signals sell, producing a mixed technical picture.
- Key levels:
- Support: around 2,341p (accumulated volume)
- Near resistance: around 2,444p and then 2,480p
For trading on Friday, 5 December, the site estimates an intraday range of about 2,338–2,382p based on recent volatility, with the stock closer to support than resistance, which they see as a marginally attractive intraday risk/reward. [28]
Technical models, of course, know nothing about soup, sandwiches or Fortune‑500 contract renewals – but they do capture market mood. Right now that mood is cautious.
Dividend and shareholder returns
Compass remains a steady dividend grower rather than a yield play:
- Full‑year dividend: 65.9c per share for FY 2025, up 10.2%. [29]
- StockInvest flags an upcoming ex‑dividend date of 15 January 2026 with a cash payment of 32.87p for the final dividend, implying a yield of roughly 1.4% at current prices. [30]
Alongside dividends, Compass completed a $500m share buyback programme (announced in November 2023), contributing to total cash returns north of $1.1bn in FY 2025. [31]
Key risk themes brokers are watching
Despite the bullish broker stance, several risk factors are front‑of‑mind in recent research and management commentary:
- GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs
- Some investors worry that widespread adoption of GLP‑1 drugs (like Wegovy and Ozempic) could permanently change eating habits and reduce demand for institutional catering.
- RBC argues that these concerns look “overdone” at this stage and that any shift is likely to be gradual and manageable, especially given Compass’s focus on balanced, portion‑controlled menus and its ability to adapt offerings. [32]
- AI and automation
- There’s a narrative that AI and robotics could disrupt low‑margin manual work in kitchens and cleaning.
- Brokers like RBC counter that Compass is more likely to benefit from tech – by using data and automation to improve procurement, labour scheduling and waste reduction – than to be displaced by it. [33]
- Macro slowdown and contract risk
- A softer economic backdrop could pressure corporate headcount and discretionary events, especially in Business & Industry and sports & leisure segments.
- However, Compass’s sector mix (including healthcare and education) and long‑term contracts historically provide some cushion, and outsourcing often increases in tougher times as clients look to cut costs. [34]
- Cost of debt and tax
- Higher interest expense and a stable 25.5% tax rate slightly cap net earnings growth vs. operating profit growth, at least in the near term. [35]
- Execution in International markets
- There remains about a 200‑basis‑point margin gap between North America and International operations, which management wants to narrow. That implies both opportunity and execution risk. [36]
How the story looks on 5 December 2025
Pulling it all together for today’s snapshot:
- Fundamentals: strong – double‑digit profit growth, high cash conversion, disciplined balance sheet, and a clear runway for mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit organic growth. [37]
- Guidance: sensible but not spectacular – slower revenue growth as inflation fades, offset by continued margin expansion and M&A. [38]
- Valuation: premium to the market on basic P/E, but in line with other quality global consumer service names; brokers largely think this is justified. [39]
- Market mood: cautious to indifferent – share price near 52‑week lows, down more than 10% year‑to‑date by late November, even after a modest recent rebound. [40]
- Street stance: clearly bullish – multiple upgrades, overweight/Outperform ratings, and average price targets implying mid‑to‑high‑teens or better upside from current levels. [41]
For investors tracking Compass Group PLC on Google News or Discover, the near‑term narrative is basically:
A high‑quality, cash‑rich caterer delivering exactly what it promised, whose shares have drifted lower anyway – and where big brokers now see that disconnect as a chance rather than a warning.
As always, this is information, not investment advice. Anyone considering Compass Group stock should weigh these facts and forecasts against their own risk tolerance, portfolio mix and time horizon – and remember that even the most well‑behaved cash cows can wander when markets decide to be weird.
References
1. stockinvest.us, 2. stockinvest.us, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.compass-group.com, 6. www.compass-group.com, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. www.compass-group.com, 9. www.compass-group.com, 10. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 11. www.compass-group.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.compass-group.com, 24. www.compass-group.com, 25. www.gurufocus.com, 26. www.compass-group.com, 27. stockinvest.us, 28. stockinvest.us, 29. www.compass-group.com, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. www.compass-group.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. www.gurufocus.com, 37. www.compass-group.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.proactiveinvestors.com
