Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) has just delivered the kind of quarter that rewrites a stock’s story in a single trading session. After reporting a surprise profit and rapid revenue growth for its fiscal third quarter 2026 (three months ended October 31, 2025), shares spiked in after‑hours trading and remain sharply higher as of December 5, 2025.
The stock is trading around $70–72 per share today, with a closing price of $70.43 on December 4 and a post‑earnings after‑hours spike that briefly pushed the price above $82. [1] That leaves Rubrik up more than 120% from its April 2024 IPO price of $32 per share and roughly 30%+ below its 52‑week high near $103, a classic “strong story but not cheap” setup. [2]
Here’s what changed on December 4–5, what analysts now expect, and how the current valuation stacks up for investors watching RBRK.
Rubrik Stock Today: A Double‑Digit Earnings Pop
Rubrik’s Q3 report triggered an immediate rerating by the market:
- The stock jumped more than 13–17% in extended trading after the earnings release on December 4, according to multiple outlets tracking after‑hours moves. [3]
- On December 4, the regular session close was about $70.43, with after‑hours quotes briefly pushing above $82, before some cooling as the dust settled. [4]
- Rubrik now carries a market capitalization of roughly $13.9–14.1 billion. [5]
In other words, Rubrik is no longer a speculative post‑IPO orphan; it’s behaving like a growth stock the Street is finally taking seriously.
Inside Q3 FY2026: Big Growth, Surprise Profit
Rubrik’s fiscal Q3 2026 numbers are the core reason the stock ripped higher:
- Total revenue: $350.2 million, up 48% year over year from $236.2 million.
- Subscription revenue: $336.4 million, up 52% year over year from $221.5 million.
- Subscription ARR (annual recurring revenue): $1.35 billion, up 34% from a year ago. [6]
- GAAP gross margin: 80.5%; non‑GAAP gross margin: 82.8%, both higher than last year’s levels. [7]
- Free cash flow: about $76–77 million, nearly a 4x increase year over year. [8]
Crucially, Rubrik flipped from red to black on an adjusted basis:
- The company reported non‑GAAP earnings of roughly $0.10 per share, versus a loss of about $0.21 per share in the prior‑year quarter, beating expectations that still called for a loss. [9]
GAAP results are still negative (a net loss of about $63.8 million in Q3), but the trajectory is clearly toward better unit economics and operating leverage. [10]
For a company that only went public in April 2024 and is still investing heavily in growth, crossing into positive free cash flow and positive non‑GAAP EPS is a big psychological milestone.
Guidance Raised: What Management Just Told the Market
Rubrik didn’t stop at beating expectations; it also raised full‑year guidance for fiscal 2026, which ends in early 2026:
For Q4 FY2026, management now expects: [11]
- Revenue: $341–343 million
- Non‑GAAP net loss per share: $(0.12) to $(0.10)
- Non‑GAAP subscription ARR contribution margin: ~9%
For the full fiscal year 2026, the outlook is:
- Revenue: $1.28–1.282 billion
- Subscription ARR: $1.439–1.443 billion
- Free cash flow: $194–202 million
- Non‑GAAP net loss per share: $(0.20) to $(0.16)
This matters for valuation. If Rubrik hits the midpoint of its revenue guide (~$1.281 billion), today’s roughly $13.9 billion market cap implies around 11x current‑year sales, a steep but not unheard‑of multiple for a security/AI platform growing revenue close to 50% with rapidly improving cash flow. [12]
The AI & Cloud Resilience Story: Rubrik’s Strategic Edge
Rubrik isn’t just a backup company anymore; it brands itself as a “Security and AI Operations” platform, and the recent news flow backs that up:
- On December 1, Rubrik announced Agent Cloud for Amazon Bedrock AgentCore, a product that automatically discovers, monitors, and governs AI agents running on Amazon Bedrock, with the ability to “rewind” agent mistakes by rolling back destructive or unwanted actions. [13]
- The same announcement confirmed Rubrik has earned the AWS Resilience Software Competency in the Recovery category, signaling that AWS itself sees Rubrik as a credible partner for mission‑critical resilience workloads. [14]
- Rubrik has also been expanding partnerships with CrowdStrike and Cognizant, strengthening its footprint in identity resilience and “Business Resilience‑as‑a‑Service,” where ransomware recovery and AI‑driven incident response are sold as outcomes, not just tools. [15]
Earlier in the quarter, Rubrik inked a strategic collaboration with Microsoft and announced integrations for Microsoft Copilot Studio and Microsoft 365 environments, linking its data protection roots directly into enterprise AI rollouts. [16]
The short version: Rubrik is trying to sit at the intersection of three hot themes—backup, cyber resilience, and AI agents—and Q3’s numbers suggest customers are buying that pitch.
Analyst View: Rubrik Stock Forecast and Price Targets
Wall Street reaction has generally been bullish, and the latest post‑earnings updates tilt even more positive.
Across major forecast aggregators as of December 5, 2025:
- Consensus rating: typically “Buy” to “Strong Buy” from roughly 17–23 analysts, with virtually no “Sell” ratings reported. [17]
- Average 12‑month price target: around $106–113 per share, which is roughly 50–60% upside from the ~$70 current price. [18]
- Target range: most sources show lows in the $70–72 region and highs near $130, reflecting wide disagreement on how to price Rubrik’s growth versus its risks. [19]
A few specific datapoints published just before and around the Q3 release:
- Cantor Fitzgerald trimmed its target from $115 to $105 but maintained a Buy rating.
- Guggenheim reiterated a Strong Buy with a $108 target.
- Berenberg initiated coverage with a Strong Buy and a $114 target. [20]
Separately, at least one recent valuation‑focused piece pegs Rubrik’s fair value around $114 per share, while acknowledging that the stock had already surged more than 60% in prior months before this latest move. [21]
Put differently, analysts are broadly bullish on the business and see material upside, but they are very aware they’re blessing an already‑expensive growth name.
Valuation Check: How Expensive Is RBRK Now?
Using the latest data as of early December 2025: [22]
- Share price: ~$70.4
- Market cap: ~$13.9–14.1 billion
- Revenue (trailing 12 months): about $1.2 billion
- Net loss (TTM): roughly –$377 million
- EPS (TTM): around –$1.95
That gives us:
- Price‑to‑sales (trailing): ~11.5–12x
- Forward price‑to‑sales (using FY26 guidance): roughly 11x
- P/E: not meaningful yet, because Rubrik is still losing money on a GAAP basis.
For context, that multiple puts Rubrik in the same valuation galaxy as high‑growth, security‑adjacent SaaS names, not mass‑market software vendors. The market is clearly pricing in:
- Continued revenue growth at 30–40%+ for several years, and
- A credible path to sustained free‑cash‑flow margins once the hyper‑growth phase stabilizes. [23]
Technicals and Sentiment: Not Everyone Is on Board
Despite the big move up, some indicators and commentary are more cautious:
- One widely followed growth‑stock screen still gives Rubrik a Composite Rating below 30 out of 99, suggesting that, from a pure technical and earnings‑quality standpoint, it doesn’t yet rank among the market’s elite momentum names. [24]
- The same analysis shows an Accumulation/Distribution rating in the “D–” area, implying recent institutional selling pressure prior to this earnings surge. [25]
- Short interest is modest but not trivial—around 5% of float, per recent filings—meaning there are investors actively betting against the stock. [26]
There’s also been modest insider selling, including a November Form 4 filing where Rubrik’s CFO sold a few thousand shares (roughly $250k in value), likely as part of routine diversification rather than a major red flag, but still worth noting for sentiment watchers. [27]
Upcoming Catalysts: Conferences, AI Rollouts, and Q4
Investors tracking RBRK have several near‑term catalysts to watch:
- Barclays Global Technology Conference – December 10, 2025: Rubrik is scheduled to present in San Francisco, which often triggers fresh analyst questions and possibly updated models and price targets. [28]
- Further AI product launches: Agent Cloud for Amazon Bedrock is due “in the coming months,” and Rubrik continues to expand integrations with Microsoft, AWS, and identity/security partners; any traction metrics here could be stock‑moving. [29]
- Q4 FY2026 earnings: Investors will want to see Rubrik back up its raised guidance with another strong quarter, ideally extending positive free cash flow and narrowing losses as promised. [30]
If management can show that Q3 wasn’t a one‑off margin fluke but part of a durable profitability trend, the current valuation could begin to look less stretched.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case for Rubrik Stock
To make sense of RBRK here, it helps to separate the hype from the math.
Bull case highlights
- Explosive growth: 48% total revenue growth and 52% subscription growth in Q3, with ARR up 34%, is elite‑tier performance. [31]
- Business model inflection: Positive free cash flow and positive non‑GAAP EPS, with guidance for ~$200 million in full‑year free cash flow, show real operating leverage emerging. [32]
- Strategic positioning: Tightly aligned with AI and cyber resilience trends via AWS and Microsoft partnerships, identity‑recovery products (Okta, Entra ID, Active Directory), and AI‑agent “rewind” capabilities. [33]
- Analyst support: Strong‑Buy consensus with double‑digit revenue growth forecasts through at least 2027 and price targets implying 50%+ upside from here. [34]
Bear case highlights
- Valuation risk: At ~11–12x sales while still loss‑making on GAAP metrics, Rubrik leaves little room for execution missteps or macro wobble. [35]
- Competition: Rubrik fights in a crowded arena with players like Cohesity, Commvault, Veeam, Dell and others, many of which are also layering AI into their data‑protection stacks. [36]
- Execution risk in AI: The Agent Cloud/AI‑ops narrative is compelling, but still early. If customers don’t adopt these AI‑centric offerings as quickly as hoped, growth could decelerate and de‑rate the multiple. [37]
- Share overhang & insider activity: Ongoing insider Form 4 filings and institutional rotation can create volatility, especially after a big post‑earnings spike. [38]
So… Is Rubrik (RBRK) Stock a Buy After the Spike?
From a purely factual standpoint as of December 5, 2025, Rubrik looks like:
- A hyper‑growth security and AI platform with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a strong enterprise partner ecosystem. [39]
- A stock trading at a premium multiple that assumes this growth and profitability trajectory largely continues. [40]
- A name that Wall Street mostly loves—but with enough skeptics to keep short interest and volatility alive. [41]
Whether RBRK is attractive for you depends on risk tolerance and time horizon:
- Long‑term, growth‑oriented investors who are comfortable with volatility may see Rubrik as a high‑beta way to bet on AI‑driven cyber resilience and data‑security spending.
- More conservative or valuation‑sensitive investors might prefer to wait for a pullback, evidence of sustained GAAP profitability, or clearer signs that AI‑agent governance becomes a must‑have category rather than a nice‑to‑have story.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.rubrik.com, 3. 247wallst.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. companiesmarketcap.com, 6. ir.rubrik.com, 7. ir.rubrik.com, 8. finance.yahoo.com, 9. stocktwits.com, 10. ir.rubrik.com, 11. ir.rubrik.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.stocktitan.net, 14. www.stocktitan.net, 15. ir.rubrik.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.stocktitan.net, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.stocktitan.net, 29. www.stocktitan.net, 30. ir.rubrik.com, 31. ir.rubrik.com, 32. ir.rubrik.com, 33. ir.rubrik.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.stocktitan.net, 38. www.stocktitan.net, 39. ir.rubrik.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. stockanalysis.com
