NuScale Power (SMR) Stock on December 5, 2025: Rebound Rally, Share-Dilution Vote and a Split Wall Street

Updated: December 5, 2025

NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) has become one of the most hotly debated stocks in the nuclear and AI‑energy space. After a spectacular run‑up earlier in 2025 and a brutal sell‑off since mid‑October, the stock is now bouncing sharply again as investors weigh three big forces at once:

A massive small modular reactor (SMR) project pipeline
Heavy losses and reliance on equity markets
An upcoming shareholder vote to double the company’s authorized share count

As of mid‑day on December 5, 2025, NuScale shares trade around $22.85, up sharply from late‑November lows but still far below their October peak in the mid‑$50s. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at today’s news flow, the latest forecasts, and how analysts are trying to price this very high‑beta nuclear bet.

1. NuScale stock performance: from nuclear rocket to roller coaster

NuScale’s 2025 stock chart looks like a physics problem in volatility:

Earlier in the year, the shares surged more than 100–200%, powered by enthusiasm around nuclear power’s role in feeding energy‑hungry AI data centers and NuScale’s unique regulatory position. ^[2]
By mid‑October, SMR hit all‑time highs in the mid‑$50s before collapsing more than 50–60% into the high teens by late November. TechStock²+1
On November 26, TechStock² noted that NuScale’s market value had been cut by more than half over roughly 21 trading days, even after a modest bounce. TechStock²

The last two weeks have been just as wild:

On December 1, SMR fell more than 7% intraday as traders reacted to widening losses and dilution fears. ^[3]
On December 4, MarketBeat data showed the stock closing at $22.81, up over 13% on the day amid renewed buying interest and positive commentary about nuclear’s role in AI infrastructure. ^[4]
TrendSpider estimates the stock is still down more than 30%+ over the last month, underscoring how violent the recent drawdown has been despite the rebound. ^[5]

The underlying message: NuScale has moved from “quiet clean‑energy story” to speculative trading vehicle where sentiment can flip in a single headline.

2. Q3 2025 results: revenue inflection, earnings shock

The pivot point for the current debate was NuScale’s Q3 2025 earnings, reported on November 6.

2.1 Headline numbers

Across multiple earnings summaries and regulatory filings, the picture is consistent: ^[6]

Revenue: about $8.2–8.24 million, up from roughly $0.5 million a year earlier (over 1,500% year‑on‑year growth), driven largely by engineering work tied to the planned RoPower SMR plant in Romania.
Consensus revenue expectation: around $11.1–11.5 million, meaning Q3 sales missed analyst forecasts by roughly 25–29%.
Net loss: about $532–533 million, versus $45.6 million in the prior‑year quarter.
Earnings per share:–$1.85, far worse than expectations of roughly –$0.11 to –$0.15 and sharply below last year’s –$0.18 per share. ^[7]

So revenue is finally showing a meaningful ramp, but profitability isn’t just lagging – it was blown out of the water.

2.2 Why the loss exploded

NuScale’s own Q3 press release and subsequent analyses point to one dominant driver: a $495 million milestone contribution booked in general and administrative expense under its Partnership Milestones Agreement with ENTRA1, its strategic SMR deployment partner. ^[8]

Other moving parts:

The company ended the quarter with $753.8 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments.
It raised about $475.2 million of gross proceeds by selling 13.2 million shares through an at‑the‑market (ATM) program during Q3. ^[9]

A number of commentators highlighted the paradox: NuScale’s losses look terrifying, but much of the hit is tied to one‑off commercialization milestones and aggressive investment in future projects rather than a collapsing core business. ^[10]

Still, from an equity‑holder’s perspective, the math is brutal:

Huge GAAP loss
Heavy share issuance
A business that remains very early‑stage with modest revenue

That combination is exactly why the dilution debate now dominates the stock.

3. Fluor exits, NuScale dilutes: capital structure in motion

On the same day as Q3 results, NuScale and its long‑time partner Fluor Corporation announced a restructuring of Fluor’s stake. ^[11]

Key elements of the November 6 announcement:

Fluor will convert its remaining Class B units in NuScale Power, LLC into Class A common stock.
It plans a structured monetization of its remaining NuScale shares, targeting completion by the end of Q2 2026, subject to volume limits.
Fluor has agreed to vote in favor of NuScale’s planned increase in authorized share count, to reduce certain economic rights under the tax receivable agreement and to accept temporary limits on NuScale’s own equity issuance through February 2026.

This follows earlier activist pressure on Fluor to review the value locked in its NuScale holding, with Reuters noting that NuScale had come to represent a large portion of Fluor’s market capitalization. ^[12]

For NuScale shareholders, the message is mixed:

Positive: Fluor’s support for the share‑increase proposal and the gradual share sale plan reduces the odds of a sudden overhang crash.
Negative: one of NuScale’s anchor shareholders is clearly backing away over time, and the company has leaned heavily on equity markets to fund operations.

4. The December 16 vote: doubling authorized shares, existential overhang

The most important near‑term catalyst is NuScale’s special shareholder meeting scheduled for December 16, 2025.

MarketBeat’s nuclear‑sector analysis and other commentary highlight the key agenda item: a proposal to increase authorized Class A shares from 332 million to 662 million. ^[13]

Why it matters:

Company filings referenced in recent analyses state that failing to approve the increase could raise “substantial doubt” about NuScale’s ability to continue as a going concern, because it would sharply limit its ability to raise new equity capital. ^[14]
The expanded authorization is widely viewed as necessary to fund NuScale’s capital‑intensive pipeline, including:
- The up to 6 gigawatts of SMR capacity ENTRA1 plans to deploy with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) – billed as the largest SMR deployment program in U.S. history. ^[15]
- The planned RoPower plant in Doicești, Romania, where NuScale and Fluor are progressing front‑end engineering and design (FEED). ^[16]

Simply Wall St’s deep dive on the proposal frames it as a trade‑off: the share pool expansion gives NuScale “room to support” both TVA and Romanian projects, but investors must weigh long‑term growth potential against funding needs, execution risk and timelines to meaningful revenue. ^[17]

Put bluntly:

A “yes” vote likely means more dilution but removes a going‑concern overhang and extends the runway to deliver the project pipeline.
A “no” vote would force NuScale to scramble for alternative funding or restructuring options and could dramatically increase downside risk.

That binary setup is a big reason SMR is trading like a lottery ticket on the nuclear‑AI future.

5. What analysts are saying: high upside, but a “Reduce” consensus

Despite (or because of) the volatility, NuScale is one of the most heavily covered small‑cap nuclear names on Wall Street. The headline from the last month of rating changes is growing skepticism, even as price targets still imply large upside from today’s levels.

5.1 Price targets and ratings

Different platforms, same message: upside potential, but caution.

MarketBeat
- 16 analysts in the last 12 months
- Consensus rating: “Reduce” (a notch below Hold)
- Rating mix: 6 Sell, 7 Hold, 3 Buy
- Average 12‑month price target: $36.12
- Range: $20 (low) – $60 (high)
- Implied upside: about 58% from the recent price around the low‑$20s. ^[18]
TipRanks (past three months)
- 12 Wall Street analysts
- Consensus: Hold (4 Buy, 5 Hold, 3 Sell)
- Average target: $36.55, with high at $60 and low at $20
- Upside indicated: about 93% from the price at the time (~$18.91). ^[19]
StockAnalysis
- Coverage: 7 analysts
- Consensus: Hold
- Average target: $38.50, implying roughly 68% upside over the next year. ^[20]
GuruFocus
- Based on one‑year targets from 14 analysts, average target $38.34 (high $60, low $20)
- That implies more than 100% upside from the sub‑$20 levels used in the analysis.
- Its “GF Value” fair‑value model puts NuScale at around $38.77, also suggesting a potential 100%+ upside. ^[21]

In other words, most models still treat NuScale as undervalued relative to its future, but the rating language has cooled from “Buy” to “Hold/Reduce” as the risks have become more obvious.

5.2 Recent downgrades and target cuts

November was a busy month for critical notes:

UBS: Neutral rating, target cut from $38 to $20 on November 25. ^[22]
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC): Sector Perform, target trimmed from $35 to $32 on November 10. ^[23]
Citigroup: Downgraded to Sell/Strong Sell, with target reduced from $46 to $37.50. ^[24]
Bank of America: Earlier in the autumn, cut its NuScale target from $38 to $34 and warned that both NuScale and Oklo had surged on “unrealistic expectations”, with valuations assuming aggressive SMR deployment timelines. ^[25]
Zacks / Weiss Ratings: Recent commentary shifted NuScale toward “Strong Sell”/“Sell (D‑)” territory in some rating systems, emphasizing execution risk, cash burn and dilution. ^[26]

The net effect: NuScale is still seen as a high‑potential story, but the probability‑weighting across outcomes has moved further toward “this might not work as smoothly as the stock price once implied.”

6. Fundamental narrative: nuclear, AI and NuScale’s “regulatory moat”

Behind all the noise, the core investment case hasn’t changed much – it has just become more extreme.

6.1 The bull case

Bullish analyses from MarketBeat, Investing.com and others emphasize three main pillars: ^[27]

AI‑driven power demand
Hyperscale data centers and AI compute clusters need 24/7, carbon‑free baseload power that intermittent renewables alone can’t provide. Nuclear – especially modular designs – fits that need unusually well.
Regulatory lead (“moat”)
NuScale’s SMR design is currently the only SMR design certified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), giving it a meaningful head start. ^[28]
Real projects, not just concept art
- ENTRA1’s agreement with TVA for up to 6 GW of NuScale capacity in the U.S.
- The Romanian RoPower project, where a decommissioned coal site is being repurposed for a NuScale‑based SMR plant. ^[29]

Simply Wall St’s modeling suggests revenue could climb to $402.3 million and earnings to $42.2 million by 2028, implying annual revenue growth of over 120% from today’s tiny base, and supporting a fair‑value estimate around $40.50 per share (roughly 100%+ above recent trading). ^[30]

6.2 The bear case

Bearish commentary, including from Zacks, Stockstotrade, BofA, and TechStock², focuses on a different trio of themes: ^[31]

Extreme valuation vs. current fundamentals
Even after the sell‑off, NuScale has been trading at a multi‑billion‑dollar equity value on trailing‑twelve‑month revenue well under $100 million and deeply negative earnings.
Dilution and funding risk
The Q3 ATM raise, the proposal to double authorized shares, and Fluor’s monetization plan all signal that equity issuance is central to NuScale’s strategy for funding its pipeline.
Execution and timeline risk
SMR projects are complex, multi‑year endeavors that depend on regulation, partner utilities, financing and political support. Delays, cost overruns or shifting policy could punch big holes in NuScale’s multi‑gigawatt dream.

The result is a polarized stock: some models show multi‑bagger potential, while others see a richly valued pre‑profit company that may be years from sustainable cash flow.

7. Sector context: NuScale as part of the nuclear‑AI basket

NuScale isn’t moving in a vacuum. Nuclear and SMR plays such as Oklo, Centrus Energy, BWX Technologies and Nano Nuclear Energy have also seen heavy trading volume and sharp price swings as investors crowd into the “nuclear for AI” narrative. ^[32]

MarketBeat’s “Nuclear Stocks to Watch” lists on December 2 and 4 highlighted SMR as one of the highest‑dollar‑volume nuclear names, noting that a recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) push has helped generate technical “buy signals” across the group. ^[33]

For traders, this sector linkage matters:

Positive DOE headlines, AI infrastructure stories or SMR‑friendly policy moves can lift the whole basket.
Equally, a skeptical analyst note on valuations (like BofA’s downgrade) can hit several names at once.

8. What to watch after December 5, 2025

For anyone following NuScale Power stock into 2026, a few milestones stand out:

December 16 special meeting outcome
- Approval of the share‑increase proposal would likely be framed as a short‑term dilution negative but solvency positive.
- Rejection would add real going‑concern risk and could force NuScale to rethink its capital structure.
Follow‑on financings and capital plan
Markets will watch how NuScale uses any new authorized shares – e.g., pace of offerings, potential strategic investors, or project‑level financing structures.
Project progress and new contracts
- Concrete updates on TVA/ENTRA1 site selection, licensing and timelines
- Progress at the Romanian RoPower site and any new international MoUs or FEED contracts
Regulatory and policy signals
Further DOE support for SMRs, grid decarbonization mandates, or AI‑driven power policy could improve the backdrop – while any setback in nuclear sentiment could hurt.
Path to more “normal” earnings
Investors will be looking for signs that one‑off milestone hits and front‑loaded costs give way to more predictable revenue and a narrowing loss profile.

9. Bottom line: NuScale stock today

On December 5, 2025, NuScale Power sits at a crossroads:

The company has cash in the bank, a certified SMR design, and marquee partners in TVA, ENTRA1 and Romanian utilities. ^[34]
It also has hundreds of millions of dollars in quarterly losses, a dependence on equity markets, and an imminent vote on doubling its share authorization. ^[35]
Analyst consensus has cooled to Hold/Reduce, but average price targets and fair‑value models still imply large upside from current prices – if NuScale executes and funding remains available. ^[36]

For long‑term investors, SMR is effectively a high‑risk, high‑reward wager on small modular reactors becoming a backbone of AI‑era baseload power. Short‑er‑term traders, meanwhile, are treating it as a volatility engine tied to headlines about DOE policy, analyst notes and that crucial December 16 vote.

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