Costco Stock (COST) on December 5, 2025: Sales Strength, Slowing U.S. Momentum, Board Shake-Up and 2026

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is back in focus after a volatile week in which strong November sales, a surprise board nomination and fresh talk of special dividends met growing worries about slowing U.S. momentum and a rich valuation.

As of mid‑afternoon on Friday, December 5, 2025, Costco shares trade around $904 per share, up modestly on the day but still well below their 52‑week high near $1,080. ^[1] After a ~3% drop on Thursday, the stock has turned negative for 2025, lagging far behind the S&P 500’s double‑digit gain this year. ^[2]

Below is a detailed breakdown of the latest news, earnings expectations, analyst forecasts and key themes investors are watching right now.

1. Costco Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation

Latest price (Dec 5, 2025): about $904
Intraday range: roughly $895–$906
52‑week range: about $872–$1,078 ^[3]
Market cap: roughly $400+ billion
Forward P/E: around 50x, with a PEG ratio above 6, reflecting a premium to most big‑box peers. ^[4]

According to MarketWatch’s recap, the stock fell about 2.9% on Thursday, leaving it down roughly 2.2% year‑to‑date, even after a spectacular combined gain of just over 100% in 2023 and 2024. ^[5] That sharp run‑up, paired with today’s slowing metrics, is at the heart of the current valuation debate.

2. November 2025 Sales: Strong on Paper, but Investors See Deceleration

On December 3, Costco reported its November 2025 sales for the four weeks ended November 30: ^[6]

Net sales:$23.64 billion, up 8.1% year over year
Q1 FY 2026 (12‑week) net sales:$65.98 billion, up 8.2%
13‑week net sales:$71.97 billion, also up 8.2%

Comparable sales (4‑week November period): ^[7]

U.S.: +6.0%
Canada: +6.9%
Other International: +11.4%
Total company: +6.9%

Excluding gasoline and foreign exchange:

U.S.: +5.8%
Total company: +6.4%

Digital continues to be a standout:

Digitally enabled sales: up ~16–17% in November, similar to or slightly below the 20%‑plus comp in the broader quarter. ^[8]

A Zacks commentary framed the data as evidence that Costco’s value‑focused model and e‑commerce build‑out continue to resonate with consumers: volumes remained solid, and online demand is growing faster than the core store base. ^[9]

So why is the stock under pressure?

3. Why the Stock Sold Off: Slowing U.S. Trends vs. Premium Valuation

MarketWatch and other outlets highlight a key nuance: growth is strong, but slowing at the margins in the U.S. ^[10]

From the MarketWatch breakdown:

The total 12‑week comp of 6.4% topped expectations of around 5.8%.
However, U.S. comps in November (+5.8%) slowed from 6.7% in October, and traffic growth eased from about 3.7% to 3%. ^[11]
On a two‑year “stacked” basis, U.S. comp growth decelerated from 12.5% in October to 10.1% in November — still strong, but pointing to a gradual normalization. ^[12]

The concern: when you’re paying ~50x earnings for a mature retailer, investors scrutinize changes in the growth rate, not just the headline level of growth.

A recent Seeking Alpha note argued that Costco’s premium valuation and excitement around potential special dividends could be setting the stock up for disappointment if U.S. trends cool further or macro headwinds intensify. ^[13]

In short, the November report was fundamentally good, but not quite good enough to justify the highest multiples — hence the sell‑off.

4. Q1 FY 2026 Earnings Preview: December 11, 2025

Costco will report Q1 FY 2026 earnings on Thursday, December 11, 2025, after the market close. ^[14]

Current expectations:

Consensus EPS: about $4.24, up roughly 11% year over year ^[15]
Revenue: roughly $67.0–67.2 billion, up around 8%

For the full fiscal year, Wall Street is modeling: ^[16]

FY 2026 EPS: around $18
FY 2027 EPS: about $20

Zacks currently rates Costco a Rank #4 (Sell) with a negative Earnings ESP of about ‑0.69%, noting that the “Most Accurate” earnings estimate has drifted slightly below the consensus. That combination suggests they do not see a strong statistical edge for an upside surprise, even though earnings are expected to grow. ^[17]

MarketBeat notes that Costco has beaten EPS expectations in three of the last four quarters, but the stock has still fallen the day after earnings in five of the past seven — by an average of nearly 4% — underscoring how high expectations already are. ^[18]

Key near‑term catalyst:

If Costco’s commentary on traffic, renewal rates and tariff litigation is more upbeat than feared, the stock could bounce.
Conversely, any hint of further U.S. slowdown, margin pressure or weaker renewal trends could weigh heavily on a high‑P/E stock.

5. Governance News: Gina Raimondo Nominated to Costco’s Board

One of the week’s biggest headlines: Costco has nominated Gina Raimondo, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021–2025) and former Governor of Rhode Island, to its Board of Directors. ^[19]

Key details:

The nomination was announced on December 4, 2025. ^[20]
Raimondo’s background spans venture capital, state government and federal trade and commerce policy. ^[21]
The shareholder vote is scheduled for January 15, 2026, and observers expect approval. ^[22]

Why it matters for the stock:

Trade and tariffs. Costco is one of the many companies challenging Trump‑era tariffs in court, seeking relief on duties that have weighed on margins. ^[23] Raimondo’s deep familiarity with U.S. trade policy and global supply chains could be a strategic asset as that litigation progresses.
Global expansion and geopolitics. With over 920 warehouses worldwide and a growing presence in Asia and Europe, Costco’s exposure to trade rules, currency shifts and regulatory changes is rising. ^[24] A board member with international security and policy credentials may help navigate that complexity.
Signal of long‑term positioning. The nomination reinforces the perception that Costco is thinking beyond near‑term comps and focusing on global scale, resilience and geopolitical risk management — themes that matter for a stock priced as a long‑duration compounder.

6. Membership Engine: Still Costco’s Moat

Despite short‑term worries about traffic deceleration, Costco’s membership model remains its core economic moat.

From recent filings and commentary:

Net sales FY 2025: about $269.9 billion, up 8.1% year over year. ^[25]
Membership fee revenue FY 2025: around $5.3 billion, up 10%. ^[26]
Q4 FY 2025 membership fees: up 14% YoY to $1.724 billion. ^[27]
Total paid members: ~81 million, with 145 million+ total cardholders globally. ^[28]

Renewal rates remain extremely high by retail standards, though they have ticked down slightly from record levels:

Around 92% in the U.S. and Canada, and roughly 90% worldwide, with management acknowledging a modest dip tied to a surge in online sign‑ups and promotional campaigns. ^[29]

Costco’s 2024 membership fee increase in North America — Gold Star from $60 to $65 and Executive from $120 to $130 — is now fully reflected in the numbers. Yet analysts estimate it accounted for less than half of the fourth‑quarter membership revenue growth; the rest came from new sign‑ups and upgrades to Executive membership, reinforcing the durability of the model. ^[30]

7. Dividend and Special Dividend Speculation

Costco currently pays a regular quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, which equates to an annualized $5.20 and a yield of about 0.6% at current prices. ^[31]

The most recent dividend was declared on October 15, 2025, and paid on November 14, 2025, to shareholders of record on October 31. ^[32]

The bigger talking point is Costco’s history of large, occasional special dividends. In early 2024, the company paid a $15 per share special dividend (roughly $6.7 billion total), continuing a pattern of returning excess cash every few years. ^[33]

Recent analysis notes:

Costco’s cash balance has risen quickly (from about $10 billion to over $14 billion), and its leverage remains low. ^[34]
A Seeking Alpha piece dubbed the current environment “tariff roulette” and argued that another special dividend or even a stock split is increasingly likely if sales momentum and cash generation stay strong. ^[35]

Important: As of December 5, 2025, no new special dividend or split has been announced. The speculation is based on historical behavior and rising cash, not on company guidance.

8. Wall Street Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Wall Street remains broadly positive on Costco, though enthusiasm is not unanimous.

Consensus ratings

MarketBeat:
- 32 analysts over the last 12 months
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” with 19 Buy and 13 Hold ratings
- Average 12‑month target:$1,023.41 — about 13% upside from the low‑$900s. ^[36]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 25 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average target:$1,069, implying roughly 18% upside
- Range: $907–$1,225, with most targets clustered above current levels. ^[37]

Selected recent calls: ^[38]

Jefferies: Buy, $1,180 target; raised fiscal 2026 EPS estimate to $20.17, highlighting broad‑based strength across consumables, fresh food, non‑food categories and ancillary businesses. ^[39]
Telsey Advisory Group (Joseph Feldman): Buy, $1,100 target.
DA Davidson: Hold, $1,000 target.
J.P. Morgan: Buy, recently trimming its target from $1,050 to $1,025 as growth normalizes. ^[40]

At the same time, some research is more cautious, emphasizing that even with high‑quality fundamentals, a 50x P/E leaves little room for error, especially if U.S. comps keep drifting lower. ^[41]

9. Quant and Technical Forecasts: Mixed Signals

Algorithmic and technical‑indicator models are less enthusiastic than human analysts right now.

CoinCodex technical forecast (updated Dec 5, 2025): ^[42]

Short‑term:
- Predicts a drift down toward $892–$895 over the next week, implying a small negative return from current levels.
One‑year algorithmic projection: about $835, or ~‑7% from today.
2030 projection: around $1,356, roughly 50% higher than today’s price.
Technical sentiment labeled “bearish”, with most moving averages flashing sell signals.

Other long‑term opinion pieces (for example, an August 2025 Yahoo Finance analysis) have suggested Costco could potentially reach $2,000 per share by 2030 if membership growth, pricing power and e‑commerce trends continue. ^[43]

These algorithmic and extrapolative forecasts shouldn’t be treated as guarantees — they’re based on historical patterns and assumptions that can change quickly, especially around major macro shifts or regulatory decisions.

10. Institutional Activity and Ownership

Costco remains heavily owned by institutions, with roughly two‑thirds of shares held by funds and large investors. ^[44]

Recent 13F‑based headlines:

Amundi increased its stake by about 194,000 shares in Q2, now owning 2.19 million Costco shares (~0.49% of the company) worth about $2.15 billion at the time of filing. ^[45]
Cresset Asset Management boosted its holdings by 13% to nearly 43,800 shares. ^[46]
Brown Advisory and Epoch Investment Partners each trimmed their positions by about 4.7%, though both remain sizable shareholders. ^[47]

MarketBeat also notes recent insider selling by senior executives at prices in the low‑to‑mid $900s, consistent with routine diversification but still watched by investors wary of lofty valuation. ^[48]

11. Bull vs. Bear: What Investors Are Watching Now

Bullish factors

Sticky membership model with >90% global renewal rates and rising fee income. ^[49]
Consistent high‑single‑digit sales growth, even in a mixed macro environment. ^[50]
Fast‑growing digital business and strong performance in ancillary services (pharmacy, optical, food courts). ^[51]
Robust balance sheet, low leverage and a long record of shareholder‑friendly capital returns, including occasional large special dividends. ^[52]
Potential tariff relief or favorable legal outcome could lift margins meaningfully. ^[53]
Raimondo nomination adds policy and geopolitical expertise to the board just as Costco deepens its global footprint. ^[54]

Risks and reasons for caution

Valuation: Around 50x earnings for a big‑box retailer with high single‑digit sales growth leaves little cushion if comps or margins wobble. ^[55]
U.S. sales deceleration: Recent data show slowing U.S. comps and traffic growth, even if levels remain healthy. ^[56]
Renewal rate softness: While still extremely high, global renewal rates have slipped modestly from record highs; if this accelerates, the thesis could be challenged. ^[57]
Tariff and legal uncertainty: Court outcomes on tariffs could swing margins either way; an unfavorable ruling could be a headwind. ^[58]
Event risk around earnings: Costco’s stock has historically been volatile post‑earnings, often dropping even on beats. ^[59]

12. What It Means for Investors

From a news and data standpoint as of December 5, 2025:

Fundamentals remain strong: mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit comps, robust digital growth, very high renewal rates, and membership fee revenue compounding at double‑digit rates.
Narrative headwinds are real: normalization of U.S. traffic and comps, plus a P/E near 50x, have shifted the conversation from “growth at any price” to “is this still the right price for this growth?”
Near‑term catalysts:
- Q1 FY 2026 earnings on December 11, 2025
- Shareholder vote on Gina Raimondo’s board nomination on January 15, 2026
- Any update on tariff litigation, special dividend intentions or a potential stock split

Whether Costco is attractive at current levels will depend on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and view on its long‑term moat vs. its short‑term slowdown and premium valuation.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.