Marvell Technology (MRVL) Soars on Record AI Data Center Growth: Latest Stock News, Analyst Targets and 2026

Published: December 6, 2025

Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) has just had one of its busiest—and most important—weeks of 2025.

As of the latest trade, the semiconductor designer’s shares sit around $98.91, up roughly 12% over the week and hovering just below the psychologically important $100 level. The stock now trades in the upper half of its 52‑week range of about $47 to $127, reflecting a sharp rebound from its late‑summer correction. ^[1]

The move follows a record third quarter of fiscal 2026, a multi‑billion‑dollar AI acquisition, and a wave of analyst upgrades and price‑target hikes that are reshaping how Wall Street values Marvell’s role in AI data centers. ^[2]

Quick Take: Why Marvell Stock Is Back in Focus

Record Q3 FY2026 revenue of about $2.075 billion, up roughly 37% year over year, driven primarily by AI data center chips. ^[3]
GAAP net income swings to about $1.9 billion thanks to both strong operations and the sale of the automotive Ethernet business, with non‑GAAP EPS at $0.76, up sharply from a year ago. ^[4]
Announcement of a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI, adding a next‑generation photonic fabric platform for AI data centers. ^[5]
Management guiding to Q4 FY2026 revenue around $2.2 billion and full‑year revenue growth above 40%, with stronger data center growth expected in FY2027 and FY2028. ^[6]
Analysts across Wall Street have raised their 12‑month price targets into the $110–$150+ range, with Street‑wide averages around $111–$111.5, implying ~12% upside from current levels. ^[7]
MRVL is now eligible for S&P 500 inclusion, having cleared GAAP profitability rules, and is cited as the largest eligible non‑member (~$84 billion market cap)—though inclusion is not guaranteed. ^[8]

Q3 FY2026: AI Data Center Demand Drives Record Revenue

Marvell’s third quarter of fiscal 2026 (fiscal year one year ahead of the calendar year) was all about AI infrastructure.

According to the company’s official release, Marvell delivered: ^[9]

Net revenue of about $2.075 billion (a company record), up roughly 37% year on year, slightly above the midpoint of prior guidance.
GAAP gross margin around 51.6% and non‑GAAP gross margin near 59.7%.
GAAP net income of around $1.9 billion (about $2.20 per diluted share), boosted by the sale of its automotive Ethernet business to Infineon for $2.5 billion in cash.
Non‑GAAP net income of approximately $655 million, or $0.76 per share, up strongly from roughly $0.43 a year ago.

From a segment perspective, AI was the star. Commentary from independent analysis highlights: ^[10]

Data center revenue around $1.5 billion, up roughly 38% year on year.
Enterprise networking revenue of about $237 million, up more than 50%.
Carrier infrastructure nearly doubled to roughly $168 million.
Consumer at about $117 million, up over 20%.
Automotive/industrial fell sharply to around $35 million, reflecting the divestiture and portfolio reshaping.

In short: Marvell is increasingly a data center and cloud AI infrastructure company, not a diversified “miscellaneous semiconductor” vendor. Independent research firms describe this quarter as further validation of the company’s pivot toward accelerated computing infrastructure—custom AI silicon, optics, and advanced networking. ^[11]

Celestial AI Deal: Buying a Photonic Future for AI Data Centers

The most strategically important headline of the week may not be the earnings beat, but the Celestial AI acquisition.

Marvell plans to acquire Celestial AI for approximately $3.25 billion, split between around $1.0 billion in cash and $2.25 billion in stock, plus additional contingent stock tied to performance milestones through FY2029. ^[12]

Key strategic points from management and third‑party analysis: ^[13]

Celestial AI brings a photonic fabric technology designed for in‑rack and intra‑system optical connectivity inside AI data centers—crucial for scaling large AI clusters efficiently.
Marvell expects Celestial to reach about $500 million annualized revenue by Q4 FY2028 and roughly $1 billion annualized by Q4 FY2029, with meaningful revenue starting in the second half of FY2028.
The deal deepens Marvell’s relationship with at least one Tier‑1 hyperscaler and is linked to an expanded AWS warrant, adding a “photonic fabric” swim lane to their collaboration.
The transaction is expected to be funded with cash and stock without new debt, while still allowing Marvell to continue dividends and share buybacks.

Combined with the existing Inphi‑based silicon photonics portfolio, the Celestial AI deal positions Marvell as a key supplier for the next phase of AI data center architecture, where photons increasingly replace copper inside the rack.

Custom Silicon, Trainium3 and the AWS Connection

The other big theme is custom silicon—especially for hyperscale customers.

Marvell has been a key partner in Amazon’s Trainium AI accelerators, and investors had worried that the move to Trainium3 might sideline the company. Fresh commentary from both the earnings call and independent analysis suggests the opposite. ^[14]

Highlights:

Management said that next year’s custom revenue forecast already includes a transition to a next‑generation XPU at a large customer, and that purchase orders already cover the entire next fiscal year forecast for this program—widely interpreted as Trainium3 for AWS. ^[15]
Marvell forecasts sequential revenue growth every quarter next fiscal year, with custom silicon revenue expected to grow at least 20% in FY2027 and to roughly double between FY2027 and FY2028. ^[16]

Under the hood, Marvell’s custom chip pipeline is far broader than a single customer. At its Custom AI Investor Event earlier this year, the company disclosed: ^[17]

A total data center semiconductor TAM (total addressable market) rising to about $94 billion by 2028, with $55.4 billion tied to custom devices for accelerated compute.
A custom XPU market expected to hit around $40.8 billion by 2028, growing at ~47% compound annual growth.
Engagement on 18 custom projects, including 12 devices for the “big four” hyperscalers and six devices for emerging AI‑centric customers.

This long‑cycle custom silicon pipeline is a major part of why analysts are now projecting multi‑year AI‑driven revenue growth rather than a one‑off cycle.

Guidance: A Steeper AI Ramp in 2026 and 2027

Alongside the Q3 print, Marvell sharpened its outlook:

Q4 FY2026 revenue guidance sits around $2.2 billion (±5%), with modestly higher non‑GAAP margins and EPS. ^[18]
Management expects full‑year FY2026 revenue growth to exceed 40%, propelled by AI data center demand. ^[19]
Independent analyst work summarizing management’s commentary points to a path toward roughly $10 billion in annual revenue by FY2027, with data center revenue growth of around 25% in FY2027 and about 40% in FY2028, plus optics outgrowing cloud capex. ^[20]

Earlier, Zacks‑compiled estimates (via a September research note) projected Marvell’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings to grow about 77% and 28% year over year, respectively, and revenue to rise 41% and 16.4% over those same years. ^[21] While those forecasts predate the latest guidance and Celestial AI deal, they underline how sharply the Street already expected earnings leverage as AI revenue scales.

Analyst Upgrades: Targets Move into the $110–$150+ Range

Wall Street’s reaction to the latest quarter has been emphatically bullish.

A broad set of major brokerages raised their price targets after the report, including: ^[22]

Needham: Buy, target lifted from $95 to $120
Benchmark: Buy, $95 → $130
Rosenblatt Securities: Buy, $95 → $120
Wells Fargo: Overweight, $90 → $135
Deutsche Bank: Buy, $90 → $125
KeyBanc: Overweight, $90 → $130
J.P. Morgan: Overweight, $120 → $130
Susquehanna: Positive, $100 → $120
Cantor Fitzgerald: Neutral, $90 → $110
Stifel: Buy, $95 → $114
Oppenheimer: Outperform, $115 → $150
Evercore ISI: Outperform, $122 → $156

Aggregated forecast services now show:

A consensus 12‑month price target around $111–$111.6, implying roughly 12% upside from the current ~$99 share price. ^[23]
A consensus rating of either “Moderate Buy” or “Buy” across 30+ covering analysts. ^[24]

Stock‑screening platforms that focus on top‑rated analysts likewise flag Marvell as a key AI beneficiary, with one service citing 13 Strong Buy, 3 Buy and 9 Hold ratings, plus a maximum Street price target of $156 over the next year. ^[25]

S&P 500 Inclusion Watch and Relative Strength

Beyond earnings and forecasts, Marvell has also stepped into an important structural discussion: S&P 500 eligibility.

A recent MarketWatch‑syndicated analysis notes that Marvell has now satisfied the S&P 500’s cumulative GAAP profitability requirement, which had previously kept it out of the index despite its size. With a market capitalization near $84 billion, the company is cited as the largest eligible firm not already in the index. ^[26]

Whether the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee chooses to add Marvell in the near‑term December update remains unknown, but index inclusion would force passive funds tracking the S&P 500 to buy shares, often providing a one‑time demand boost.

On the technical side, Investor’s Business Daily recently reported that Marvell’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating—a proprietary measure of price performance versus the broader market—has risen to 86, up from 75, after the post‑earnings surge. The report notes that shares broke above an 85.27 “buy point” from a prior base and are now considered extended, suggesting less ideal entry levels unless the stock consolidates or pulls back toward key moving averages. ^[27]

In parallel, Benzinga’s move‑of‑the‑week coverage highlights that MRVL is now testing resistance around $100, a price level where selling previously emerged, and where short‑term traders may be more cautious. ^[28]

Valuation: Not Cheap, But Not Extreme for an AI Leader

With the recent rally, Marvell no longer looks like a bargain-bin recovery play—but it also isn’t trading at the nosebleed levels of some AI high‑flyers.

Recent data points show: ^[29]

A forward P/E ratio around 30x, a bit below its own three‑year average near the low 30s and only slightly above the broader technology sector’s forward multiple.
A modest dividend yield of about 0.24%, signaling a focus on growth rather than income.
Earlier Zacks valuation work pegged Marvell’s forward price‑to‑sales near 6x, below the average for its semiconductor peer group at the time, suggesting the stock is not dramatically overvalued relative to its AI data‑center positioning.

The key question for investors and analysts alike is whether Marvell’s AI data center, custom silicon, and photonics businesses can grow fast enough to justify that multiple through 2026–2028.

Longer‑Term AI and Optics Story: Beyond the Next Quarter

Looking past the immediate quarter‑to‑quarter noise, the Marvell thesis increasingly rests on three structural trends:

AI Data Center Build‑Out
Hyperscalers are racing to deploy AI clusters, a process that demands not just GPUs/accelerators, but high‑bandwidth networking, custom XPUs, retimers, CXL controllers and advanced optics—all in Marvell’s wheelhouse. Management now expects data center revenue growth of roughly 25% in FY2027 and about 40% in FY2028, assuming continued AI capex strength. ^[30]
Custom Silicon as a Growth Engine
The company is investing heavily in custom XPUs and XPU‑attach devices, expecting the custom XPU market alone to reach roughly $40.8 billion by 2028. With 18 active custom projects and evidence of long‑term purchase commitments (such as for the Trainium3‑like program), Marvell is positioning itself as a go‑to design partner for hyperscalers looking to differentiate their AI stacks. ^[31]
Photonics and Rack‑Scale Architectures
Celestial AI’s photonic fabric and Marvell’s existing silicon photonics assets are aimed at removing bandwidth bottlenecks inside AI systems, enabling larger models and more efficient utilization of expensive accelerators. Independent analysts see this as a multi‑year opportunity where optics could outgrow even cloud capex as AI workloads become more bandwidth‑hungry. ^[32]

Zacks‑compiled projections of high‑double‑digit earnings growth into 2026–2027 reflect these long‑term drivers and suggest that the Street expects operating leverage as AI revenue scales. ^[33]

Risks: What Could Go Wrong

Despite the bullish tone, several risks remain on investors’ radar:

AI Capex Cyclicality – If hyperscale AI spending slows or shifts, particularly at key customers like Amazon or Microsoft, Marvell’s custom and optics growth could decelerate. ^[34]
Integration Execution – The Celestial AI deal introduces integration and technology‑execution risk; delivering on the 2028–2029 revenue and earnings targets will require successful productization at leading customers. ^[35]
Valuation and Expectations – After a roughly 50–60% recovery over the past three months, expectations are high. A single disappointing quarter or weaker‑than‑expected guide could pressure the stock, particularly now that it trades near resistance around $100. ^[36]
Competition – Heavyweights like Broadcom and AMD remain aggressive in custom silicon and AI accelerators, and cloud providers continue to experiment with in‑house designs, potentially squeezing margins or share over time. ^[37]

Bottom Line: How Marvell Technology Stock Looks as of December 6, 2025

As of December 6, 2025, Marvell Technology (MRVL) sits near the center of several of the market’s biggest themes:

AI infrastructure build‑outs in hyperscale data centers
The shift toward custom accelerators and XPUs
The adoption of advanced optics and photonic fabrics inside AI systems
Potential S&P 500 index inclusion

Record Q3 FY2026 results, a sizeable acquisition in Celestial AI, and a unified chorus of higher analyst price targets have put the stock back on the radar of both institutional and retail investors. While short‑term technicals suggest the stock may be extended after its recent run, the multi‑year AI infrastructure story remains the core reason MRVL is being treated as a potential long‑duration winner rather than a short‑cycle chip play. ^[38]