BP Stock (NYSE: BP, LSE: BP.): Buybacks, Hydrogen Retreat and 2026 Outlook as of 6 December 2025

BP p.l.c. is ending 2025 as one of the more controversial comeback stories in global energy. The shares are trading near multi‑year highs after a string of earnings beats, a rising dividend and a fresh $750 million buyback, even as the company retreats from flagship hydrogen projects and faces criticism over labour practices and climate ambition. ^[1]

This article summarises the key news, forecasts and analyses on BP stock as of 6 December 2025 to help investors understand what is driving the price and where the debate is heading.

BP stock price today: ADRs vs London listing

On the New York Stock Exchange, BP’s American depositary receipts (ADRs) recently changed hands around $35.8, after pulling back from early‑December closes above $37.2. That leaves the stock just below a 52‑week high near $37.6 and an all‑time closing high around $37.2 set on 3 December 2025. Over the last year, BP has delivered roughly 20% share price gains. ^[2]

In London, where BP remains a FTSE 100 heavyweight, the ordinary shares (ticker BP.) closed on Friday 5 December at about 453p, down 2.6% on the day and roughly 4–5% below their 52‑week high near 476p. Even after that pullback, they are still around high‑teens percentage points above where they started 2025. ^[3]

Technically, momentum remains strong. Investor’s Business Daily reports BP’s ADRs recently achieved a Relative Strength (RS) Rating of 81, meaning they have outperformed the majority of stocks over the past 12 months and are trading in a breakout pattern above a prior $35.88 “buy point”. ^[4]

Latest BP news investors need to know (December 2025)

Earnings beat, rising dividend and an aggressive buyback

BP’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on 4 November, laid much of the groundwork for the recent rally:

Underlying replacement‑cost profit: $2.21 billion, ahead of analyst expectations around $2.0–2.02 billion.
Adjusted EPS: about $0.85 per ADR, roughly a 10% beat versus consensus in the mid‑$0.70s.
Revenue: around $49.2 billion, outpacing forecasts near $44 billion.
Operating cash flow: about $7.8 billion in the quarter. ^[5]

BP highlighted particularly strong performance in its “customers” division and refining business, with refining availability close to 97% — the best quarter in about two decades for the current portfolio. ^[6]

On capital returns, management doubled down:

Dividend: BP declared a Q3 dividend of 8.320 cents per ordinary share, reiterating guidance for at least 4% annual dividend growth (subject to board approval). For the U.S. ADR (six ordinary shares), that implies an annualised payout close to $1.90–$2.00 per ADR, a yield just above 5% at current prices. ^[7]
Buyback: Alongside Q3 results, BP announced a new $750 million share repurchase programme to be completed by early February 2026, after finishing a prior $750m programme on 31 October. ^[8]

Filings and exchange notices show that BP has been buying back roughly 1.5 million shares per day on London and Cboe markets in early December as it executes that programme. ^[9]

By late November, BP reported 15.66 billion voting rights, with around 15.65 billion ordinary shares in issue and more than 830 million shares held in treasury, which do not receive dividends. ^[10] The steady reduction in the free‑float share count magnifies EPS and dividend per share over time — a cornerstone of the bull case.

Castrol sale talks: reshaping the portfolio

One of BP’s most important strategic moves now underway is the proposed sale of its Castrol lubricants business.

According to the Financial Times, BP is in advanced negotiations with U.S. infrastructure investor Stonepeak over a deal expected to exceed $8 billion, after earlier indications of interest came in below BP’s initial hopes of $10 billion or more. ^[11] Castrol is a high‑margin business thought to generate over $1 billion in annual profit and has long been one of BP’s crown‑jewel downstream assets. ^[12]

Selling Castrol would be a major step toward BP’s target of raising $20 billion from asset sales between 2025 and 2027, part of the “reset” strategy to simplify the group and recycle capital into higher‑return projects and buybacks. ^[13] Reports suggest BP could retain a minority stake, using an infrastructure‑style partnership similar to structures seen in other energy deals. ^[14]

The upside for shareholders is a potential unlocking of value from a business that may be under‑appreciated inside a conglomerate, plus more cash for debt reduction or buybacks. The risk is that BP sells a stable, cash‑generative unit and becomes more reliant on inherently more volatile upstream oil and gas earnings.

Hydrogen retreat: Oman and Teesside projects scrapped

At the same time, BP has moved decisively away from some of its most high‑profile green hydrogen plans.

In early December, specialist outlet Hydrogen Insight and energy trade press reported that BP has cancelled its 1.5GW Duqm Green Hydrogen Project in Oman, a gigascale scheme that was intended to export green ammonia from the port of Duqm. It is at least the second major renewable hydrogen project in the area to be abandoned, dealing a blow to Oman’s ambitions in the sector. ^[15]

In the UK, BP has also dropped its H2Teesside hydrogen and carbon‑capture project, after the government decided to redirect the site toward a large AI data centre. The move reflects a shift in state priorities and BP’s own focus on projects where returns and policy support look clearer. ^[16]

Both decisions fit into the broader strategic “reset” unveiled in February, when BP cut planned annual transition spending by more than $5 billion and raised oil and gas capex to about $10 billion a year. Management argued that the energy transition is progressing more slowly than previously forecast and that shareholders demanded higher near‑term returns. ^[17]

Labour relations: UK forecourt staff lose paid breaks

Domestically, BP is facing backlash over changes to working conditions at its UK petrol stations.

An investigation by The Guardian revealed that BP plans to scrap paid rest breaks and most bank‑holiday premium pay for about 5,400 employees at its 310 company‑run forecourts from February 2026. In exchange, hourly pay will rise from £12.60 to £13.45, in line with the UK Living Wage Foundation’s “real living wage”. ^[18]

Critics, including affected staff and the Trades Union Congress, argue that removing paid breaks and premium bank‑holiday pay could cut effective take‑home pay by around 6%, largely offsetting the headline wage increase. BP says it is restructuring pay and benefits “to stay fair and competitive” and notes that UK law does not require breaks to be paid. ^[19]

From an investor perspective, the direct financial impact of these changes is small, but they add to ESG and reputational risk at a time when BP is already under scrutiny for scaling back low‑carbon spending and facing shareholder rebellions over climate strategy. ^[20]

Takeover chatter fades, but strategy debate continues

Takeover speculation flared earlier in 2025 when reports suggested Shell was weighing a potential bid for BP. Shell issued a categorical denial in June and, under UK takeover rules, is now barred from making a formal offer for six months after that statement. ^[21]

Analyses from outlets like Fortune note that a hypothetical Shell‑BP combination would face serious antitrust and execution hurdles, along with the challenge of managing even larger combined debt and overlap in assets. ^[22] The speculation nonetheless underscored BP’s status as a mid‑sized major relative to super‑majors ExxonMobil and Shell, and highlighted persistent debate around whether its strategy is best pursued independently.

Credit and sector views

On the credit side, Fitch Ratings affirmed BP’s long‑term issuer rating at ‘A+’ with a Stable outlook in May, citing strong free cash flow in a moderate price environment and manageable leverage. ^[23]

Equity strategists are more divided. Bank of America has recently downgraded BP to “underperform”, part of a broader reset of its 2026 European energy outlook built around a “soft landing” scenario with $60 Brent. In that framework, the bank sees better risk‑reward in other names and less upside for BP after its strong 2025 run. ^[24]

BP stock forecasts and analyst ratings (as of early December 2025)

Across Wall Street and the City, BP is still widely seen as a cash‑rich but cyclical value play, and the numbers show a growing spread between bulls and bears.

Data compiled by StockAnalysis indicates that nine analysts tracking BP ADRs have an average 12‑month price target around $39.9, implying roughly 11% upside from the mid‑$35s, with individual targets ranging from $29 to $66. The consensus rating there is a cautious “Hold”. ^[25]
MarketWatch aggregates about 30–32 analyst ratings and finds an average recommendation around “Overweight” with a mean target close to $39.7. ^[26]
MarketBeat reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus from 19 brokerages: 2 strong buys, 7 buys, 9 holds and 1 sell. ^[27]
Another aggregator, Intellectia, shows a similar profile: 6 buy and 4 hold ratings, with an average target around $35.9, slightly above current levels but below some other datasets because targets often lag fast‑moving prices. ^[28]

Recent analyst moves illustrate the divergence:

Raymond James raised its BP price target from $38 to $40 on 11 November, maintaining an “Outperform” rating after the Q3 beat and reaffirmed buyback programme. ^[29]
A separate note covered by TipRanks has downgraded BP to “Sell”, arguing that lower medium‑term Brent forecasts and a heavy $20 billion disposal plan could dilute the quality of cash flows and reduce underlying free cash flow by roughly 10% as long‑life assets are sold. ^[30]
Bank of America’s downgrade to “underperform” adds another high‑profile bearish voice on the name. ^[31]

Quantitative and algorithmic models are, unsurprisingly, more mechanical. One short‑term forecast from CoinCodex projects BP’s ADRs drifting toward about $37.4 over the coming days — a modest gain from current levels — but such models are purely statistical and should not be treated as fundamental research. ^[32]

Putting it together, the average sell‑side view as of 6 December 2025 still points to high single‑ to low double‑digit price upside over 12 months, on top of a 5%+ dividend yield, but with a widening range of opinions and a noticeable uptick in downgrades after the recent share price rally.

Strategy reset: from green poster child back to oil‑and‑gas cash machine

BP’s current positioning cannot be understood without the 2025 strategy reset.

In February, BP announced it would:

Boost annual oil and gas spending to roughly $10 billion.
Cut annual “transition” spending — on renewables, hydrogen and other low‑carbon projects — by over $5 billion compared with earlier plans.
Target $20 billion in asset disposals by 2027, including a review of businesses such as Castrol and parts of its solar affiliate Lightsource. ^[33]

BP’s Energy Outlook 2025 frames this in macro terms. Its “Current Trajectory” scenario anticipates global oil and gas demand falling only gradually, suggesting the world is unlikely to hit net‑zero emissions by 2050 without much more aggressive policy action. ^[34] In that context, management argues that high‑return hydrocarbon projects can still produce substantial cash for years, funding both shareholder payouts and selective low‑carbon investments.

Critics, including climate‑focused NGOs and research groups like Reclaim Finance, counter that BP has cut planned low‑carbon spending to roughly one‑fifth of earlier ambitions and has become an emblem of European oil majors backtracking on climate commitments. ^[35]

A widely discussed Fortune feature traced how BP went from an “eco poster child” with aggressive net‑zero promises to a company now viewed by some investors as a potential takeover target, arguing that it made “the right bet at the wrong time” by leaning into green projects during a period of rising interest rates and policy uncertainty. ^[36]

On the other side of the debate, analysis from Morningstar suggests that the pivot back toward oil and gas could lead to stronger long‑term returns than BP’s earlier, more capital‑intensive renewables push, provided management maintains discipline on costs and carbon exposure. ^[37]

The cancellations in Oman and Teesside have now crystallised that strategic shift in project terms, not just slide decks. ^[38]

Bullish arguments for BP stock

Supporters of BP’s reset see a company that has quietly turned itself into a cash‑return machine with optionality on the pace of the energy transition.

1. Double‑digit shareholder yield
Between a dividend yield above 5% and an active buyback programme that has recently equated to roughly another 5–6% of market capitalization per year, BP currently offers a combined “shareholder yield” around 10–11%, according to data from StockAnalysis and recent analyses of the Q3 results. TechStock²+2StockAnalysis+2

With a forward P/E in the low‑teens and price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow estimated below 9x, bulls argue this is a value‑style payout profile in a market where many high‑quality companies yield far less. TechStock²+1

2. Strong cash generation and improving operations
The Q3 2025 beat on profit, revenue and cash flow, combined with record refining availability and an increasingly profitable “customers” division, supports the view that BP can deliver strong earnings even in a world of $60–70 Brent, not just during price spikes. ^[39]

3. Portfolio rationalisation unlocking value
If BP successfully sells Castrol at around $8 billion and completes other planned divestments, it will free up capital from slower‑growth or non‑core businesses and recycle it into higher‑return projects or buybacks, potentially lifting return on capital employed and simplifying the story for investors. ^[40]

4. Solid balance sheet and credit rating
Fitch’s A+ / Stable rating serves as an external validation that BP’s leverage and liquidity look manageable even under more conservative commodity price assumptions, giving the company room to keep investing and returning cash through cycles. ^[41]

5. Positive technical picture
The combination of a Relative Strength score above 80, new 52‑week highs in November and a breakout above prior resistance levels has drawn in technical traders and quant funds, reinforcing buying momentum as long as the broader energy sector holds up. ^[42]

Bearish arguments and key risks

Sceptics see BP’s rally as fragile, warning that the company remains highly exposed to factors outside its control and may be sacrificing long‑term resilience for near‑term cash.

1. Oil and gas price dependence
Bank of America’s downgrade centres on the view that the sector is headed toward a “soft landing” at ~$60 Brent, a level at which earnings and free cash flow could be materially lower than the recent run‑rate. If prices underperform expectations, buybacks and dividend growth targets may prove hard to sustain. ^[43]

2. Strategy whiplash and transition risk
BP’s shift from loud climate commitments to a more carbon‑heavy strategy, combined with green project cancellations in Oman and Teesside, has raised concerns about long‑term vision and regulatory risk. A faster‑than‑expected policy response to climate change could leave a more hydrocarbon‑centric BP facing stranded asset risk or higher carbon costs. ^[44]

3. Asset‑sale dilution of cash flow quality
The TipRanks‑covered downgrade to “Sell” argued that BP’s $20 billion disposal plan is likely to reduce the average life and quality of its cash flows, potentially cutting underlying free cash flow by around 10% as longer‑life, lower‑decline assets are sold. Investors paying for long‑duration cash flows may view this as value‑destructive. ^[45]

4. Labour and ESG controversies
The plan to remove paid breaks and most bank‑holiday premiums for UK forecourt staff, along with prior climate‑strategy U‑turns and shareholder revolts, reinforce perceptions among some ESG‑minded investors that BP is moving backwards on both social and environmental fronts. That can narrow the potential investor base and potentially increase the stock’s required return. ^[46]

5. Competitive and valuation pressures
Even after the rally, BP trades at a discount to U.S. super‑majors, but some analysts argue that the discount is partially deserved given greater strategic volatility, heavy reliance on asset churn and geopolitical exposures. The fact that Shell publicly insisted it “doesn’t need” to bid for BP — despite earlier market rumours — underlines that peers may see limited strategic necessity in owning BP at any price. ^[47]

Is BP stock a buy, hold or sell right now?

Whether BP is attractive at current levels depends heavily on your view of the energy cycle and tolerance for transition risk.

On the numbers:

Consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around $39–40 per ADR, compared with a current price in the mid‑$35s, implying roughly 8–12% expected price upside. ^[48]
Add a 5%+ dividend yield and ongoing buybacks, and many analysts still describe BP as offering double‑digit potential total returns, provided oil prices don’t undershoot the mid‑cycle assumptions. ^[49]

For investors who:

Believe oil and gas demand will remain robust into the 2030s,
Expect Brent to hover in the $60–80 range, and
Prioritise income and buybacks over ultra‑aggressive decarbonisation,

BP’s combination of high shareholder yield, solid credit metrics and ongoing simplification can look compelling relative to more expensive peers. ^[50]

For those who:

Place a premium on rapid decarbonisation,
Fear structural decline in fossil fuels, or
Worry about frequent strategic U‑turns and labour disputes,

the Bank of America downgrade and the Sell‑rating critique highlighting weakened cash‑flow quality may carry more weight than the headline yield. ^[51]

Crucially, BP remains a cyclical, commodity‑exposed stock. Its price can move sharply with daily oil price swings, macroeconomic data and shifts in climate policy. Nothing here should be taken as personalised investment advice; investors should consider their own objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance, and, where appropriate, seek regulated financial advice.

What to watch next

Looking beyond 6 December 2025, key catalysts for BP include:

Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance: The next earnings release will show whether strong cash generation continues and how management plans to calibrate dividends and buybacks in 2026. ^[52]
Castrol transaction details: Confirmation of a sale price, any retained stake and use‑of‑proceeds will shape views on BP’s portfolio quality and capital allocation discipline. ^[53]
Further asset sales and low‑carbon moves: Investors will watch whether BP continues to pare back hydrogen and renewables or balances disposals with new, more profitable decarbonisation projects. ^[54]
Sector sentiment and oil prices: Additional sector‑wide calls like Bank of America’s, plus macro data that influence oil demand, will likely drive volatility across energy majors, BP included. ^[55]
ESG and labour developments: Reactions to the UK forecourt pay changes and future AGMs could influence which investor cohorts are willing to own the stock at what valuation multiple. ^[56]

For now, BP sits at the crossroads of old‑world hydrocarbons and new‑world transition narratives — rewarded by markets for delivering cash today, but still judged by regulators, activists and a subset of investors on what it is doing about tomorrow.