The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is ending 2025 with a curious mix of old-school stability and very modern headaches: a landmark lawsuit over ultra-processed foods, aggressive investment in generative AI, resilient earnings and margins, and a stock price that’s quietly grinding higher but still trails the broader market over five years.
As of early December 2025, Coca-Cola shares trade around $70, roughly 5% below their 52‑week high near $74.38, with a 52‑week range of $60.62–$74.38. [1] The company’s market value sits near $300 billion, putting Coke firmly in “mega‑cap defensive” territory. [2]
Below is a detailed look at where Coca-Cola stock stands today, what recent news means for investors, and how Wall Street — and various forecasting models — see KO into 2026 and beyond.
Coca-Cola stock price today: steady, defensive, slightly below its peak
Several data providers show Coca-Cola closing at about $70 per share on 5 December 2025, with recent intraday ranges roughly $69.9–$70.7. [3]
Key performance metrics:
- 52‑week range: ~$60.62 (low) to $74.38 (high) [4]
- Market cap: roughly $301–305 billion, depending on source and intraday moves [5]
- 1‑year total return: around 12–16% including dividends [6]
- Year-to-date 2025: mid‑teens percentage gains, around 16–17% total return [7]
Short-term trading has been choppy. MarketWatch notes that on 2 December, KO fell about 1.78% to $70.67, leaving it just under 5% below its April 2025 52‑week high. [8] An overview from German outlet boerse-global similarly describes the stock as having slipped roughly 4% over the last week to close at $70, framing this as the market wrestling with “competing narratives” around legal risk and AI-driven efficiency gains. [9]
Over a five‑year horizon, Coca-Cola has delivered a solid but not spectacular total return. Analyses from outlets like The Motley Fool and AOL show KO’s five‑year return trailing the S&P 500, even after including dividends, underscoring its role as a steady compounder rather than an index‑beating growth engine. [10]
Q3 2025 earnings: revenue growth plus striking margin expansion
Coca-Cola’s fundamental story in 2025 revolves around modest volume growth, strong pricing power and impressive margin gains.
In Q3 2025, management reported: [11]
- Net revenues up 5% to about $12.5 billion
- Organic revenue up 6%, driven by approximately 6% price/mix growth while concentrate volumes were flat
- Global unit case volume up 1%, with growth in Central Asia, North Africa, Brazil and the UK offsetting weaker trends elsewhere
- Reported operating margin up to 32.0% (from ~21% a year ago), and comparable operating margin up to 31.9%
- Earnings per share up 30% to $0.86, with comparable EPS up 6% to $0.82 despite currency headwinds
Category and brand performance:
- Zero sugar and premium products are doing the heavy lifting. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar volumes jumped around 14%, while the company highlighted strong momentum in brands such as fairlife, Fuze Tea, and sports labels Powerade and BODYARMOR. [12]
- Water, sports, coffee and tea grew roughly 3% globally, offsetting softness in juice, dairy and plant‑based beverages, particularly in Asia-Pacific. [13]
A detailed analysis from Zacks (via Nasdaq) emphasized that comparable operating margin expanded by about 120 basis points year‑over‑year, even though gross margin slipped slightly, thanks to tighter cost control, better media efficiency and supply-chain optimization. [14]
On the cash side, Coca-Cola reported strong free cash flow generation. Excluding the large contingent consideration payment related to the fairlife acquisition, the company had generated $8.5 billion in free cash flow year‑to‑date by the end of Q3. [15]
Strategy and guidance: maintaining the 5–6% growth algorithm
In its official earnings release and Exhibit 99.1 filed with the SEC, Coke reaffirmed its long‑term “growth algorithm” and updated guidance for 2025, with early commentary on 2026: [16]
- 2025 organic revenue growth: expected at 5–6%
- Comparable EPS growth (non‑GAAP) for 2025: about 3% versus 2024, or ~8% in constant currency
- Currency: management still expects about a 5‑point FX headwind to EPS for full‑year 2025
- Free cash flow (ex fairlife payment): at least $9.8 billion for 2025
- 2026 considerations: the company anticipates a slight currency tailwind to both revenue and EPS if current FX rates persist, but will provide full 2026 guidance with the Q4 2025 earnings release.
This guidance is consistent with independent analyst forecasts. StockAnalysis, for example, aggregates Wall Street estimates and projects: [17]
- 2025 revenue: about $49.7 billion, up ~5.7% from 2024
- 2026 revenue: about $52.2 billion, up another ~5%
- 2025 EPS: around $3.08, up ~25% from 2024 (helped by one‑off factors and margin expansion)
- 2026 EPS: around $3.32, up ~7.8%
Zacks’ consensus numbers tell a similar story, implying EPS growth of roughly 3.5% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, and suggesting the Street expects Coke to continue translating mid‑single‑digit sales growth into high‑single‑digit profit growth over time. [18]
New legal risk: San Francisco’s lawsuit over ultra‑processed foods
The biggest new headline risk for KO in December 2025 is not about earnings at all, but about regulation and litigation.
On 2 December 2025, the City and County of San Francisco filed a groundbreaking lawsuit against ten major food manufacturers — including Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Kraft Heinz, General Mills and others — accusing them of fueling a public health crisis through the creation and marketing of “ultra‑processed foods.” [19]
Key points of the case:
- The suit alleges these companies deliberately engineered highly processed products to be addictive, using tactics likened to those of the tobacco industry. [20]
- San Francisco claims this behavior violates California public nuisance and unfair competition laws, and seeks restrictions on marketing (especially to children), consumer education remedies and financial penalties to offset health-care costs. [21]
- The city attorney’s office frames the case as the first municipal legal action of its kind targeting ultra‑processed foods, positioning it as a test case with potential national implications. [22]
The December 6 analysis from boerse-global explicitly ties this lawsuit into the KO investment narrative, arguing that legal uncertainty around ultra‑processed products now sits alongside more conventional risks like consumer trade‑downs and FX volatility. [23]
In the short term, such litigation does not change Coca-Cola’s fundamentals. But if cases like this succeed or proliferate, they could eventually affect marketing practices, product formulation, warning-label requirements or even sales mix, particularly in sugary beverages and snack-adjacent categories.
AI and efficiency: the bullish counter-narrative
Balancing these legal and demand concerns, several recent analyses emphasize Coca-Cola’s technology and efficiency story.
At the UBS 2025 Global Technology and AI Conference, the bank reiterated a Buy rating and $82 price target on KO, implying roughly 16–17% upside from current levels. [24]
UBS highlighted:
- Coca-Cola’s status as an “early adopter” of generative AI in the consumer goods sector, based on meetings with the company’s AI leadership. [25]
- The use of AI to optimize marketing campaigns, personalize digital content, and improve supply-chain and inventory decisions, potentially enhancing both revenue growth and margins. [26]
The Zacks/Nasdaq margin deep-dive backs this story up from a numbers angle, showing that multi-year productivity programs — including digital tools and media optimization — helped deliver that 120 bps operating margin expansion in Q3, even with currency and input cost pressures. [27]
Meanwhile, boerse-global notes that global sugar prices fell about 6% in November 2025 to a four‑year low, potentially easing a major input cost and giving further support to gross margins if the trend continues. [28]
Combine falling sugar costs, structural refranchising (like Coke’s deal to sell a 75% stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa to Coca-Cola HBC) and AI-assisted efficiency, and you get the core of today’s bullish KO narrative: mid-single-digit top-line growth converting into high-single-digit earnings growth with strong cash generation. [29]
Dividend: classic “Dividend King” profile with a ~2.9% yield
Coca-Cola remains one of the flagship dividend stocks in global markets.
Recent dividend facts:
- The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.51 per share, payable in mid‑December to shareholders of record as of 1 December 2025, implying an annual dividend of $2.04. [30]
- At a ~$70 share price, that works out to a dividend yield of roughly 2.8–2.9%. [31]
- MarketBeat puts Coca-Cola’s payout ratio near 67–68% of earnings, which is high but manageable for a mature consumer staples company with strong free cash flow. [32]
- Coca-Cola is a Dividend King, having raised its dividend for 63 consecutive years, according to dividend-focused coverage on Nasdaq. [33]
For many investors, this dividend — and its track record — is the core of the KO thesis. You’re not buying a hyper-growth story; you’re buying a globally diversified cash machine that pays you steadily increasing income while delivering modest capital appreciation over time.
Valuation: modest premium to peers, big premium to bonds
Valuation metrics from Zacks, Morningstar and others suggest Coca-Cola trades at a moderate premium to its sector: [34]
- Forward P/E: around 22x
- Zacks flags that this is notably above its consumer staples peer group, which trades closer to 18x forward earnings. [35]
- Various market-cap trackers and performance dashboards show a one‑year total return in the mid-teens, with a 5‑year total return in the ~40–50% range including dividends — again, decent but below the S&P 500’s 5‑year return, which is north of 100%. [36]
In plain terms: KO is priced as a high‑quality, low‑volatility income stock, not a deep value name. A forward P/E in the low‑20s demands that Coca-Cola continue to deliver:
- Consistent mid‑single‑digit organic growth
- Ongoing margin expansion or at least stability
- A reliable and growing dividend
Any disappointment on those fronts — especially if combined with adverse legal outcomes or sustained volume declines — could pressure the valuation multiple.
What do analysts think? Consensus suggests high‑70s targets
Across multiple data aggregators, Wall Street remains broadly bullish on KO:
- StockAnalysis shows a “Strong Buy” consensus from its analyst panel, with an average 12‑month price target around $78–79, implying roughly 11–12% upside from ~$70. [37]
- MarketBeat similarly reports an average target price near $78.43 and an overall “Buy” rating, with a large majority of covering analysts calling KO a Buy or Strong Buy. [38]
- Benzinga’s forecast summary finds a consensus target of about $76.84, with a range from $70 (low) to $83 (high) across 20 analysts. [39]
- UBS, after its AI-focused meetings with management, sticks with an $82 target, while a recent Seeking Alpha deep-dive pegs fair value around $80, arguing the market is underestimating Coca-Cola’s cash recovery and dividend growth potential. [40]
Not everyone is pounding the table: Zacks currently rates KO as a Rank #3 (Hold), citing the valuation premium and the need to sustain margin improvements. [41] But the overall sell‑side skew is clearly positive, with most analysts expecting high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit total returns (price appreciation plus dividend) over the next year.
Algorithmic and long-term price forecasts: handle with caution
Beyond traditional analysts, algorithmic models have become popular — and Benzinga’s December 5 overview pulls together projections from CoinCodex for KO: [42]
Approximate CoinCodex-based forecasts:
- 2025 average price: ~$74.16 (range ~$70.45–$76.39)
- 2026 average price: ~$81.97 (range ~$72.66–$88.46)
- 2030 average price: around $110, with bullish scenarios closer to $118–119
These models extrapolate from historic price behavior, volatility and moving averages rather than a deep view of Coke’s actual business. They can be useful to understand what past volatility implies, but they don’t “know” anything about San Francisco lawsuits, sugar prices or AI adoption. Treat them as a rough statistical backdrop, not as destiny.
Long-term performance: stability over sizzle
Multiple sources converge on the same conclusion:
- Over the last five years, Coca-Cola has delivered a positive but market‑lagging total return, somewhere in the high‑30s to low‑50s percent range, depending on methodology and exact date window. [43]
- Over the same timeframe, the S&P 500 has roughly doubled, meaning KO has materially underperformed the broad U.S. equity market. [44]
- KO’s beta around 0.4 (per MarketBeat’s summary) highlights its role as a low‑volatility, defensive stock—it generally moves less than the overall market, especially in selloffs. [45]
For investors who prioritize capital preservation and income rather than maximum growth, that trade‑off can be acceptable. For those seeking benchmark‑beating returns, the recent track record suggests KO alone is unlikely to do the job.
Key upside and downside forces to watch
Potential upside drivers
- AI and digital transformation
If Coca-Cola successfully scales generative AI for marketing, pricing, and supply-chain optimization, it could support both revenue growth and further margin expansion, validating bullish views from UBS and others. [46] - Product mix and premiumization
Continued growth in zero sugar, smaller package sizes, premium water and value-added dairy could offset weaker demand in traditional sugary sodas, while supporting higher price/mix. [47] - Commodity and FX tailwinds
Lower sugar prices and a gradually less hostile currency environment in 2026 could bolster margins and reported EPS versus 2025’s FX drag. [48] - Emerging market expansion and refranchising
Coke’s ongoing refranchising — including the sale of its CCBA stake to Coca-Cola HBC — is intended to lighten the capital footprint and improve system profitability, while emerging markets still offer long runway for volume growth. [49]
Key risks and challenges
- Legal and regulatory pressure on ultra-processed foods and sugar
The San Francisco lawsuit may be just the first shot in a broader legal and regulatory battle over ultra‑processed products. Even if Coke ultimately prevails in court, it could face tighter marketing rules, warning labels or reformulation costs over time. [50] - Demand headwinds among lower-income consumers
CEO James Quincey and others have acknowledged that financially stressed consumers are trading down and gravitating toward smaller pack sizes, which can limit volume growth, especially in developed markets. [51] - Valuation risk
With KO trading at ~22x forward earnings, a valuation premium to its peer group, any stumble on margins, volumes or guidance could compress the multiple, limiting upside even if the business remains fundamentally healthy. [52] - Execution and competition
Coca-Cola’s peers — notably PepsiCo and Monster Beverage — are also investing heavily in pricing, premium brands and efficiency. If competitors out-execute, Coke’s share gains in non‑alcoholic ready‑to‑drink beverages could stall. [53]
Is Coca-Cola stock a buy, hold or sell as of December 2025?
Putting it all together:
- Fundamentals: Solid. Q3 showed healthy organic growth, robust margins and strong cash generation, and management reaffirmed its 5–6% organic growth algorithm into 2025, with earnings expected to grow in the mid‑single to high‑single digits over the next couple of years. [54]
- Dividend profile: Excellent. A nearly 3% yield, six‑plus decades of annual raises and strong free cash flow support the dividend case. [55]
- Valuation: Reasonable but not cheap, at about 22x forward earnings, with a clear premium to many consumer staples peers. [56]
- Sentiment and forecasts: The consensus rating is firmly in Buy/Strong Buy territory, with typical 12‑month targets in the mid‑to‑high $70s, and some more bullish calls around $80–82. [57]
- Risk backdrop: Elevated versus a year ago, thanks to the San Francisco lawsuit and rising political scrutiny of ultra‑processed foods, even as lower sugar costs and AI initiatives offer offsetting tailwinds. [58]
For income‑oriented or defensive investors, KO still resembles what it has long been: a high‑quality, low‑volatility compounder whose main attractions are a reliable dividend and modest, steady growth. For investors seeking aggressive capital appreciation, Coca-Cola looks more like a steady anchor position than a centerpiece of a high‑growth portfolio.
References
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