Updated: December 6, 2025
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) stock is finishing 2025 on a powerful upswing. As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, shares ended at $108.88, just shy of their 52‑week high of $109.37 and almost exactly double the 52‑week low of $55.51 set in early April. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained roughly 50–60%, making Citi one of the best performers among large U.S. banks. [1]
That surge has been driven by CEO Jane Fraser’s multi‑year restructuring plan, stronger earnings, a cleaner balance sheet and a friendlier regulatory backdrop after the Federal Reserve’s 2025 stress tests reduced Citi’s capital buffer requirements. [2]
On December 6, 2025, the debate around Citigroup stock has shifted. For the first time in years, the shares trade close to book value and around 1.1× tangible book value, levels that suggest the long‑standing “conglomerate discount” may finally be closing. [3] The key question now: is there meaningful upside left for 2026, or has the turnaround already been priced in?
Key takeaways on Citigroup stock today
- Share price: $108.88 at the December 5 close, within 0.5% of the 52‑week high and almost double the April low of $55.51. [4]
- Performance: Up ~59% year‑to‑date and ~51% over 12 months, significantly outperforming the large‑cap bank peer group. [5]
- Valuation: Around 15× trailing earnings, roughly 10–11× forward earnings, about 1.0× book value and ~1.1× tangible book value. [6]
- Income: Quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share ($2.40 annualized), implying a dividend yield of roughly 2.2% at current prices. [7]
- Street view: Consensus rating “Moderate Buy/Buy,” with 12‑month price targets clustered roughly between $104 and $115, and a high estimate of $134. [8]
Citigroup (C) stock today: price, performance and valuation
Price and momentum
Data from multiple quote services show Citigroup closing Friday, December 5, 2025 at $108.88, with an intraday range of about $107.5–$109.4. Over the last year, the stock has traded between $55.51 (April 7, 2025) and $109.37 (December 5, 2025). [9]
Price‑performance metrics highlight just how strong the 2025 rally has been:
- 30‑day return: about +7%
- 12‑month return: roughly +51%
- Year‑to‑date (YTD) return: close to +59% [10]
Reuters has noted that Citi’s stock has “surged over 50% this year,” beating a broader large‑cap bank index, a result echoed by recent MarketWatch coverage of new highs earlier this week. [11]
How expensive is Citigroup after the rally?
On traditional valuation metrics, Citigroup is no longer the ultra‑cheap outlier it was in 2022–2023, but it still trades at a discount to many peers:
- Trailing P/E: roughly 15×
- Forward P/E: around 10–11× based on consensus EPS
- Price‑to‑book value: just under 1.0×
- Price‑to‑tangible‑book value (P/TBV): about 1.1×, using a tangible book value per share near $95. [12]
In plain terms: the market now values Citi roughly in line with the accounting value of its equity, instead of at a steep discount. That’s a major shift from the years when the stock often traded at 0.5–0.7× tangible book, despite management’s target of 11–12% Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE) over the medium term. [13]
Dividend and income profile
Citi’s board declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.60 per share in July and again in October 2025, payable August 22 and November 26 respectively. [14]
That works out to:
- Annual dividend: $2.40 per share
- Dividend yield: roughly 2.2% at a $108.88 share price [15]
The dividend has become more robust as Citi’s capital position has improved, and recent regulatory outcomes give the bank more flexibility to keep returning cash to shareholders.
Short interest and sentiment
Short‑sellers have been backing away. Citigroup’s short interest fell 3.6% from October to November, to about 1.44% of the free float, with a short‑interest ratio of 2 days, according to recent data on December 6. [16]
That’s a low level of bearish positioning for a stock that used to be a popular “cheap but complicated” short. The decline in short interest suggests investor sentiment has moved from deep skepticism toward cautious optimism.
Fresh Citigroup news on December 6, 2025
“Worth the sum of its parts” for the first time since 2018
A Bloomberg analysis published on December 6 points out that Citigroup is now worth at least the sum of its parts for the first time since September 2018. [17]
In practice, that means:
- The combined market value of Citi’s businesses — trading, services, U.S. credit cards, wealth management and remaining international operations — no longer exceeds the value the market assigns to the whole company.
- The long‑standing “break‑up value” argument (that investors could unlock value by splitting Citi apart) carries less weight now that the valuation gap has narrowed.
It’s a symbolic milestone: the restructuring has progressed enough that investors are no longer pricing Citi as a chronic underperformer with unfixable complexity.
Has the 2025 rally gone too far?
A new Simply Wall St note, also dated December 6, frames the other side of the debate. The service notes that:
- Citi’s stock has surged roughly 47% in 2025 alone. [18]
- On their six‑factor valuation checklist, Citi scores only 2 out of 6, suggesting pockets of overvaluation. [19]
- Yet, their “Excess Returns” framework still suggests the shares may be about 16.5% undervalued relative to long‑term return prospects. [20]
Translated: some quantitative models say “you’re paying more than before,” but others argue that if Citi can sustain its improved profitability, today’s price still leaves room for upside.
New price targets and Wall Street stance
On December 5, Goldman Sachs trimmed its Citigroup price target slightly from $114 to $113, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. [21] The small cut looks more like fine‑tuning than a change of heart and still implies modest upside from the current price.
Across the Street:
- MarketBeat reports a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating from 18 firms (11 Buy, 7 Hold) with an average 12‑month target of about $108.70, a high of $134 and a low around $75.50. [22]
- Zacks lists an average price target implying about 6–7% upside from a recent $107.79 close, with estimates ranging from $100 to $134. [23]
- TipRanks puts the average 12‑month target higher, around $115.10, implying roughly 11–12% upside. [24]
- StockAnalysis shows a somewhat more conservative consensus, with an average target of $104.43, suggesting a small downside from today’s price even though the overall rating is still “Buy.” [25]
- Benzinga’s November update had a lower average target of $97.71, but with a wide range ($65–$134) and still a consensus Buy rating; the three latest major broker targets in that dataset averaged $117.67. [26]
Net‑net: analysts are broadly positive on Citi’s transformation, but they don’t agree on how much more rerating is left after the 2025 surge.
Management and strategic moves in late 2025
Several corporate developments in the last few weeks are also shaping the narrative:
- CFO transition and U.S. retail restructuring: Citi announced that long‑time CFO Mark Mason will step down in March 2026, to be replaced by Gonzalo Luchetti, currently head of U.S. retail banking. The bank will fold its U.S. retail operations into the wealth division and merge Branded Cards and Retail Services into a new U.S. Consumer Cards unit. [27]
- This reorganization pushes Citi further toward higher‑return wealth and card businesses, while simplifying its operating segments ahead of the next investor day.
- Managing director promotions: Citi promoted 276 employees to managing director in 2025, its smallest MD class since 2020, with nearly half based in North America. The announcement highlighted a 15% revenue increase in the markets division and noted that Citi’s stock has “surged over 50% this year,” beating a large‑cap bank index. [28]
- AI training at scale: In October, Citi disclosed a mandatory AI and prompt‑engineering training program for roughly 175,000 employees, aimed at embedding generative AI into day‑to‑day workflows. [29] This is less a direct stock catalyst and more a signal of management’s push for productivity gains and cost efficiency.
- New structured notes issuance: A fresh SEC filing describes new callable, contingent‑coupon equity‑linked notes tied to the EURO STOXX 50, Russell 2000 and S&P 500, offering at least 8.65% annualized contingent coupons if certain index levels hold through 2028. [30] It’s part of Citi’s ongoing structured‑products business rather than a major strategic shift, but underscores its capital markets footprint.
- Institutional flows: Brandes Investment Partners trimmed its Citi stake by about 2.5% in Q2, but still held 2.78 million shares, making the stock its sixth‑largest position and roughly 2.1% of its portfolio. [31] That looks more like portfolio rebalancing than a vote of no confidence.
Earnings momentum: Q3 2025 results and capital strength
Citigroup’s third‑quarter 2025 numbers are central to the bull case.
Q3 2025 performance at a glance
According to Citi’s Q3 earnings release and supporting materials:
- Revenue: $22.1 billion, up 9% year‑over‑year, with growth across all five core businesses. [32]
- Net income: $3.8 billion, up about 16% YoY; excluding a $726 million goodwill impairment related to Banamex, net income was roughly $4.5 billion. [33]
- EPS: $1.86 reported, $2.24 on an adjusted basis excluding the impairment. [34]
- Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE):
- Around 8% reported,
- 9.7% excluding the impairment,
- 12.1% RoTCE for Q3 and 12.5% year‑to‑date on an underlying basis. [35]
- Capital return: more than $6.1 billion returned to shareholders in Q3 alone, including over $5 billion in share repurchases and about $1.1 billion in dividends — a payout ratio above 100% of quarterly earnings. [36]
Management also highlighted positive operating leverage (revenues growing faster than expenses) across all core lines of business, a key requirement for sustaining RoTCE in the low‑teens. [37]
Stress tests, capital ratios and ratings
Regulation has shifted from a headwind to a mild tailwind:
- In July, Citi announced that its Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) under the Federal Reserve’s 2025 stress test would fall to 3.6% from 4.1%, cutting its minimum standardized CET1 requirement to 11.6% from 12.1%. [38]
- Under the Fed’s severely adverse scenario, Citi’s projected CET1 ratio held at about 10.4%, well above the 4.5% minimum. [39]
- Citi’s actual CET1 ratio stood around 13.2% at the end of Q3 2025. [40]
In August, Fitch Ratings affirmed Citigroup’s long‑term issuer rating at ‘A’ with a Stable outlook, noting the bank’s strong capital levels, progress on risk reduction and its decision to raise the common dividend to $0.60 per share while targeting a year‑end CET1 ratio around 13.1%. [41]
Put together, Citi appears to be running with capital well above regulatory minimums, giving management room to keep buying back stock and maintaining or gradually increasing the dividend — assuming the macro environment doesn’t throw a nasty surprise.
What Wall Street expects for 2025–2026
Earnings forecasts
There’s some spread in the data, but the main sources broadly agree on the direction:
- 2025 EPS:
So, call it roughly $7½–$8 EPS expected for 2025.
- 2026 EPS:
- A recent analysis widely circulated via Yahoo and The Motley Fool cites an average 2026 EPS estimate around $9.99, implying more than 30% growth over 2025 earnings. [44]
If Citi can actually deliver close to $10 EPS with RoTCE solidly in the low‑teens, the current forward P/E of around 10–11× looks more like a normal valuation than a bargain basement — but still cheaper than many global peers. [45]
Price targets and ratings in context
Combining the major aggregators:
- MarketBeat: average target $108.70, essentially flat to current levels, with a Moderate Buy rating (11 Buy, 7 Hold). [46]
- Zacks: mean target implying roughly 6–7% upside, with forecasts between $100 and $134. [47]
- TipRanks: average $115.10, suggesting about 11–12% upside from recent prices. [48]
- StockAnalysis: average around $104.43, implying a small downside despite a “Buy” consensus. [49]
- Benzinga (Nov 5 update): consensus target $97.71, but with a very wide range and an implied upside of about 16% from the most recent broker updates used in that sample. [50]
And of course, individual calls still matter: besides Goldman Sachs’ $113 Buy rating, other major brokers like BofA Securities and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have targets in the low‑ to mid‑$110s. [51]
The consensus story is subtle:
- Analysts broadly agree that Citigroup is no longer obviously mispriced, but
- They also believe earnings growth and capital returns can still support some additional upside, particularly into 2026, if the economy cooperates and management executes on cost and simplification plans.
How Citi’s own macro view feeds into the story
One underrated angle: Citi is not just a bank; it’s also a research powerhouse whose strategists publish big‑picture market calls.
In early December, the bank’s European equity strategists set a year‑end 2026 target of 640 for the STOXX 600, implying roughly a 10.5% gain from current levels, and reiterated a constructive stance on cyclical sectors such as banks, travel & leisure, basic resources and industrials. [52]
That framework assumes:
- EPS growth re‑accelerates after a relatively flat 2025, and
- Fiscal policy and easier monetary policy support risk assets. [53]
If that macro outlook plays out, global banks with strong balance sheets and improving returns — which is exactly how Citi wants to be perceived — could continue to benefit.
The bull case vs. the bear case, as of December 6, 2025
Bull case: why optimists like Citi here
Supporters of the stock tend to emphasize:
- Turnaround is finally showing up in the numbers
- Capital and regulation are moving in Citi’s favor
- Lower stress‑test capital buffers and a CET1 ratio comfortably above requirements give Citi room to keep shrinking the share count and paying dividends. [56]
- Valuation is still reasonable relative to peers
- P/TBV around 1.1× and P/B around 1× are not “distressed” anymore, but they’re still lower than many global megabanks with similar or slightly higher returns. [57]
- Falling short interest and stable credit ratings
- Short interest moving down and an ‘A’ / Stable rating from Fitch suggest the market no longer sees Citi as structurally broken. [58]
- Analyst EPS growth for 2026
- If EPS really does climb toward $10 in 2026, investors buying today are effectively paying a forward multiple near 11× for double‑digit earnings and reasonable yield, which looks attractive to many fundamental investors. [59]
Bear case: why skeptics are cautious after the run
Skeptics and more cautious investors focus on several risks:
- Easy re‑rating may be done
- Macro and credit risk
- Citi still has large exposure to global trade, emerging markets and consumer credit cards. A sharper‑than‑expected slowdown, higher unemployment or renewed stress in any major region could hit credit costs and fee income. (This is a general banking risk amplified by Citi’s global footprint.)
- Execution complexity
- The ongoing simplification — exits from various international consumer markets, integration of U.S. retail into wealth, and the CFO handoff — is operationally complex. [62]
- Any misstep in risk controls, technology or regulatory relationships could force the bank back into “fix mode” just as investors are starting to reward it.
- Divergent analyst targets
- Some target sets (like StockAnalysis and older Benzinga data) imply little or even negative 12‑month return from today’s price, reflecting a belief that the market is already pricing in much of the turnaround. [63]
What to watch next for Citigroup stock
For investors tracking Citigroup into 2026, a few markers will be especially important:
- Q4 2025 and full‑year results (early 2026)
- Does Citi sustain revenue growth near the high single digits?
- Are expenses staying under control, keeping RoTCE in (or above) the low‑teens range? [64]
- Capital return cadence
- How aggressively does Citi deploy its excess capital through buybacks in 2026, now that its SCB and CET1 requirements have fallen? [65]
- Credit quality in cards and emerging markets
- Watch for trends in net charge‑offs and delinquencies, particularly in U.S. consumer cards and any stressed international regions. That’s where the macro cycle will speak loudest.
- Execution on restructuring and leadership transition
- Progress updates on the integration of U.S. retail into the wealth business, performance of the new U.S. Consumer Cards segment, and the transition from Mason to Luchetti as CFO will all feed directly into investor confidence. [66]
- Global macro and Citi’s own strategy calls
- Citi’s house view of a supportive global equity and credit environment into 2026 underpins part of the bull case; any major shift in that narrative (for example, a more pessimistic take on European growth or U.S. recession odds) would be a key signal. [67]
Bottom line
As of December 6, 2025, Citigroup stock has successfully graduated from “perennial turnaround story” to a more conventional large global bank trading around book value, with improving returns, strong capital and a viable path to low‑teens RoTCE.
Whether there is still attractive upside from here depends on how you weigh two realities:
- The pessimism discount is largely gone.
- The earnings and capital story still looks solid into 2026, but must now carry more of the load.
References
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