Costco Stock Price Today (COST): December 6, 2025 News, Forecasts and Analysis

Updated: December 6, 2025

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is back in the spotlight this week as investors digest strong November sales, a looming earnings report, fresh analyst calls – and a surprisingly weak share price performance.

As of the latest trading data on December 6, 2025, Costco stock trades around $894.68 per share, giving the warehouse club giant a market capitalization near $396 billion. The shares sit closer to the lower end of their 52‑week range of roughly $872 to $1,078, and are slightly negative year‑to‑date, a sharp contrast to strong gains in 2023 and 2024. ^[1]

Yet the underlying business continues to put up solid numbers. The tension between strong fundamentals and a high valuation with slowing trends is exactly what the market is trying to price in right now.

Costco Stock Price Performance in Early December 2025

Costco’s share price has come under pressure over the past week, even though the company is still delivering mid‑single‑digit comparable‑sales growth.

The stock fell about 2.9% on December 4, turning negative for 2025 after a long stretch of outperformance versus the broader market. ^[2]
According to MarketBeat data, shares opened at $894.68 recently, with a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 49x, a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.20, and a one‑year low/high of $871.71 / $1,078.23. ^[3]

In other words: Costco is still priced like a premium compounder, but the stock has stalled just as investors have become more sensitive to any hint of slowing growth.

November Sales: Strong Headline Growth, Subtle Deceleration

On December 3, Costco released its November 2025 sales report, giving investors the first detailed look at its fiscal Q1 2026 performance. ^[4]

Key numbers:

November net sales: $23.64 billion, +8.1% year‑over‑year
First fiscal quarter (12 weeks) net sales: $65.98 billion, +8.2%
13‑week net sales: $71.97 billion, also +8.2%
Comparable sales (4 weeks):
- U.S.: +6.0%
- Canada: +6.9%
- Other International: +11.4%
- Total company: +6.9%
Digital / “digitally‑enabled” sales:+16.6% for the month and +20.5% for the quarter

Excluding gasoline and foreign exchange swings, total‑company comparable sales for November rose 6.4%, matching the 6.4% comp for the 12‑week quarter as a whole. ^[5]

On the surface, those are excellent numbers for a mature retailer. But investors are drilling into the rate of change, not just the level:

MarketWatch notes that U.S. comparable sales growth in November slowed versus October on a two‑year stacked basis and that traffic growth cooled from 3.7% to 3.0%. ^[6]
A widely shared analysis points out that adjusted comparable sales growth in November was slightly softer than in October, even though the quarter still beat Wall Street expectations. ^[7]

That mix – strong but gently decelerating growth – is key to understanding why the stock has pulled back.

Why COST Shares Are Struggling Despite Strong Fundamentals

A widely circulated column syndicated on Nasdaq and other platforms under the title “3 Reasons Costco Stock Is Struggling” captures the current bear case in three points: ^[8]

Sales growth isn’t quite fast enough for the valuation
- Fiscal 2025 revenue grew about 8% for both the fourth quarter and full year.
- Comparable sales rose 7.6% for the year and 6.4% in Q4.
- Those are robust numbers, but given Costco’s nearly 49x earnings multiple, investors may want either faster growth or clearer evidence that growth can accelerate again. ^[9]
The membership fee catalyst is already behind the company
- Costco implemented a long‑awaited membership fee hike in the U.S. and Canada late last year, raising the base Gold Star fee by $5 and the Executive tier by $10. ^[10]
- That move contributed to about a 14% jump in membership‑fee revenue in Costco’s fiscal 2025 Q4, and some analyses suggest membership‑fee income rose in the mid‑teens for the year. ^[11]
- Because Costco historically lifts fees only every ~five and a half years, the next increase is unlikely for several years, removing a major near‑term earnings lever. ^[12]
Valuation is demanding, even after the pullback
- Costco still trades around 49x trailing earnings, versus roughly 25x for the S&P 500, according to recent commentary. ^[13]
- Analysts argue that Costco’s business model – passing most scale benefits back to shoppers via low prices – makes rapid margin expansion unlikely, which limits the ability to “grow into” an extremely high P/E multiple. ^[14]

Put simply: the business looks excellent, but the expectations priced into the stock have been even higher. When growth decelerates even slightly, richly valued stocks get little forgiveness.

Earnings Preview: December 11, 2025 (Q1 FY 2026)

The next major catalyst for Costco shares is the upcoming Q1 FY 2026 earnings report, scheduled for Thursday, December 11, 2025, after the market close. Costco’s own investor relations site lists both the earnings results release and the earnings call on that date. ^[15]

Analysts’ expectations are fairly aligned:

EPS forecast: about $4.24 per share, up roughly 11% year‑over‑year ^[16]
Revenue forecast: around $67.0–67.2 billion, implying ~8% growth ^[17]
Full‑year EPS: consensus around $18 for the current fiscal year and $20 for the next, according to MarketBeat’s summary of estimates. ^[18]

Zacks research currently assigns Costco a Rank #4 (Sell) with an Earnings ESP of ‑0.69%, meaning their model does not flag the stock as a strong earnings‑beat candidate this quarter, even though earnings are still expected to grow solidly. ^[19]

The earnings call will be closely watched for:

Commentary on traffic trends and average ticket size after November’s sales.
Updates on tariffs and legal risk (more on that below).
Any hints about special dividends, stock splits, or capital allocation ahead of 2026.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Upside with a Valuation Ceiling

Despite the recent pullback, Wall Street is still broadly positive on Costco, but the tone is more nuanced than in earlier years.

Consensus Ratings

MarketBeat counts 32 analysts covering Costco, with an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. ^[20]
MarketWatch lists an average recommendation of “Overweight” based on 35 ratings. ^[21]
QuiverQuant’s aggregation shows 7 firms with Buy/Outperform ratings and none with outright Sell ratings in recent months. ^[22]

Zacks is the outlier in the short term, with its Rank #4 reflecting concerns about near‑term earnings surprise potential rather than the long‑term business quality. ^[23]

Price Targets

Different data providers give slightly different numbers, but the picture is consistent: modest double‑digit upside from current levels.

Recent snapshots:

MarketBeat:
- Average 12‑month price target:$1,023.41
- Implied upside vs. ~$895 share price: ~14%
- Consensus label: “Moderate Buy” ^[24]
StockAnalysis.com:
- Coverage by 23 analysts
- Average target:$1,071
- Range: $907 (low) to $1,225 (high)
- Implied upside: ~19.8% over the next 12 months ^[25]
MarketWatch:
- Average target price: about $1,067.65
- Average rating: Overweight ^[26]
QuiverQuant (recent 6‑month sample):
- Median target:$1,033 across 11 recent price targets ^[27]
- Examples:
  - DA Davidson: $1,000, Neutral (Dec 4, 2025)
  - Telsey Advisory Group: $1,100, Outperform (Dec 4, 2025)
  - J.P. Morgan: $1,025, Overweight (Nov 6, 2025)
  - Argus: $1,200, Buy (Sep 29, 2025) ^[28]

Taken together, analysts clearly see upside, but not the explosive rerating of earlier years. The consensus seems to be: Costco is a high‑quality franchise, but at nearly 50x earnings, upside depends on sustained high‑single‑digit growth and continued flawless execution.

Growth Drivers: E‑Commerce, Membership Power and Global Expansion

Despite the valuation debate, Costco’s business model is still firing on multiple cylinders.

1. E‑Commerce and “Digitally‑Enabled” Sales

Costco’s digital transformation is more significant than its famously old‑school warehouse aesthetic might suggest:

Digitally‑enabled sales grew 16.6% in November and 20.5% in the 12‑week quarter, far outpacing the brick‑and‑mortar base. ^[29]
Barron’s highlighted that online and omnichannel offerings are a key driver behind the 8.2% quarterly sales growth, noting strong performance in categories like food, health and beauty, and jewelry. ^[30]

This matters because a faster‑growing digital channel can:

Support higher basket sizes via easy reordering and bulk deals.
Increase wallet share for high‑income members who rely on online orders.
Reinforce Costco’s value proposition versus both traditional grocers and online‑only players.

2. Membership Economics

Costco’s profits are built on membership fees more than product mark‑ups. Recent data points:

Fiscal 2025 saw a double‑digit rise in membership‑fee income, partly due to the U.S./Canada fee increase and ongoing sign‑ups and upgrades. ^[31]
At the same time, some reports indicate renewal rates may soften slightly into 2026, a trend investors will watch closely as higher fees meet a tougher macro environment. ^[32]

The basic thesis: as long as members renew, Costco’s earnings base remains durable and recurring. Any sustained decline in renewal rates would be a genuine red flag.

3. International and Warehouse Expansion

Costco now operates 921 warehouses globally, including 633 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, 112 in Canada, and 42 in Mexico, alongside growing footprints in Europe and Asia. ^[33]

New warehouses and deeper penetration in markets like China, Japan, and Europe are long‑term growth engines that can support high‑single‑digit revenue growth even in a mature U.S. market.

Legal and Policy Wildcards: Tariffs and Lawsuits

A notable recent development is Costco’s legal fight over U.S. trade policy:

Costco has filed a federal lawsuit challenging emergency tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump’s authority, arguing that the tariffs were implemented improperly under an emergency‑powers law. ^[34]
The company is seeking refunds of tariffs paid on imported goods and an injunction against future collections if the policy is ruled unconstitutional. ^[35]

Several analyses note that:

A favorable ruling could allow Costco to recoup significant past tariff payments, effectively boosting future earnings and cash flow. ^[36]
However, the outcome is uncertain, and the timing depends on both the Court of International Trade and the U.S. Supreme Court, which has been hearing related cases.

For investors, tariffs are a double‑edged sword:

In the bearish scenario, they pressure margins on imported goods.
In the bullish scenario, refunds and policy reversals could create a one‑time profit tailwind and support the case for a special dividend.

Special Dividend and Stock Split Speculation

Given Costco’s history, it’s no surprise that strong sales and a large cash balance have reignited talk of special dividends and even a stock split:

Seeking Alpha recently described Costco as being at a “crossroads”, noting that $14+ billion in cash and robust sales have led to renewed speculation about a special dividend or long‑awaited split, even as the stock trades around 50x earnings. ^[37]
A separate analysis points out that Costco’s last special dividend (in 2023) cost around $6.7 billion, a level seen as well within the company’s capacity to repeat if management chooses. ^[38]
Investor‑relations data show that Costco hasn’t split its stock since 2000, reinforcing the mystique around a possible split once again. ^[39]

So far, management has not committed to either move, and some analysts argue the company may wait for greater clarity on tariff liabilities before distributing additional cash. ^[40]

Key Risks Heading Into 2026

Despite Costco’s strengths, several risks are front of mind for investors:

Valuation risk
- At ~49x trailing earnings, any disappointment in comps, margins, or earnings guidance could lead to outsized share‑price volatility. ^[41]
Sales‑growth deceleration
- Multi‑year growth trends in U.S. comps are moderating, with two‑year stacked growth slipping and traffic growth slowing in the latest month. ^[42]
Membership fatigue
- Higher fees and a challenging macro backdrop could pressure renewal rates at the margin, especially among more price‑sensitive members. ^[43]
Policy and tariff uncertainty
- Trade‑policy outcomes could either boost profits via refunds or continue to pressure costs if tariffs remain in force. ^[44]
Competition
- Clubs like Sam’s Club (Walmart) and BJ’s Wholesale are sharpening their value propositions as well, with some reports noting that rivals have outperformed Costco’s stock in 2025. ^[45]

Bottom Line: A Great Business Meeting High Expectations

As of December 6, 2025, Costco stands in a familiar but tricky position:

Operationally, the company is executing well:
- High‑single‑digit sales growth
- Mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit comps
- Strong digital momentum
- A sticky membership base and ongoing global expansion ^[46]
Financially, Costco remains conservatively leveraged, highly cash‑generative, and capable of funding dividends, possible special payouts, and steady warehouse expansion. ^[47]
In the market, however, the stock is being re‑rated from perfection toward something slightly more realistic. A rich valuation, modest deceleration in U.S. sales trends, and uncertainty around tariffs, special dividends, and future fee hikes are all pressing on the share price. ^[48]

For investors, the story into 2026 will likely hinge on three questions:

Can Costco sustain high‑single‑digit growth in sales and membership fees without further pricing or fee increases?
Will management deploy its balance sheet with another special dividend or other shareholder‑friendly moves once tariff risks are clearer?
Does the current share price adequately compensate for slower growth and macro uncertainty, given the company’s exceptional business quality?