Broadcom (AVGO) Stock Outlook: AI Deals, VMware Cloud Wins and Wall Street Targets Ahead of December 11 Earnings

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) heads into its next earnings report as one of the market’s flagship artificial‑intelligence infrastructure plays, with its share price hovering just below record highs and expectations running very hot. As of the latest close, AVGO trades around $390 per share, up about 2.4% on the day and more than 7% over the past month, outpacing both the S&P 500 and the broader tech sector. ^[1]

Wall Street is crowding into the story; price targets are being raised almost daily, and new enterprise software wins are reinforcing Broadcom’s pivot from “just a chip vendor” to a full AI‑era infrastructure platform. At the same time, valuations are rich, insider selling is notable, and the company faces a high‑stakes earnings test on December 11, 2025, when it will report fourth‑quarter and full‑year results. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Broadcom stock as of December 6, 2025.

1. Where Broadcom Stock Stands Right Now

In the most recent regular session, Broadcom closed at $390.24, gaining 2.42% versus a 0.19% advance for the S&P 500. Over the last month, the stock has risen about 7.2%, beating both the broader index and the Computer & Technology sector. ^[3]

According to MarketBeat’s analyst forecast dashboard, AVGO carries a consensus “Buy” rating from 35 Wall Street analysts, with 34 “Buy” or “Strong Buy” ratings and just one “Hold.” The current average 12‑month price target is $391.04, only fractionally above the current price, but the high target reaches $472 and the low sits at $210. ^[4]

Other aggregators using different methodologies are more bullish: a recent Finbold summary based on TipRanks data pegs the average target at about $425, implying roughly 8–9% upside from recent levels, with several firms arguing Broadcom’s AI processor revenues could outpace even Nvidia’s by 2026. ^[5]

From a performance standpoint, Broadcom has also become a poster child for the AI trade. A NerdWallet roundup of the best‑performing AI stocks in early December ranks AVGO among the top six global AI names by one‑year return, with a ~139% gain over the past 12 months, alongside names like Symbotic, Seagate, Palantir, Micron and AppLovin. ^[6]

2. The AI Engine Behind Broadcom’s Rally

Record AI revenue and a $110 billion backlog

Broadcom’s current stock narrative is almost entirely about AI infrastructure plus software.

In its fiscal Q3 2025, Broadcom delivered record revenue of about $16 billion, up 22% year over year, driven by AI‑related semiconductors and VMware‑based infrastructure software. AI semiconductor revenue alone reached $5.2 billion, up 63% YoY and marking the 10th consecutive quarter of AI revenue growth. ^[7]

Management also disclosed a $110 billion consolidated backlog, with at least half tied to semiconductors—and the majority of that AI‑related—providing unusual multi‑year visibility into demand for its custom accelerators (“XPUs”) and networking chips. ^[8]

A “fourth XPU customer” and the OpenAI mega‑deal

The single most important growth lever right now is Broadcom’s custom AI ASICs and XPU business:

Broadcom already has three large hyperscale AI customers (widely believed to be Alphabet, Meta and ByteDance), which together represent a $60–90 billion revenue opportunity by fiscal 2027, according to commentary highlighted in a recent Motley Fool/Nasdaq analysis. ^[9]
A fourth hyperscale customer has now placed more than $10 billion in XPU‑based AI rack orders, with shipments expected to ramp “pretty strongly” starting in 2026 – a development that CEO Hock Tan says materially improves Broadcom’s 2026 internal forecasts versus earlier 50–60% growth assumptions. ^[10]
Separately, Broadcom has inked a multi‑year deal to supply OpenAI with up to 10 gigawatts of custom AI chips. Based on current GPU pricing, Motley Fool’s analysis suggests this could translate into hundreds of billions of dollars of potential chip revenue through 2029, if volumes and pricing hold. ^[11]

This cocktail of AI wins has led some commentators to argue Broadcom could be the top‑performing chip stock in 2026, pointing to its leadership in data‑center networking, custom AI ASICs, and infrastructure software. ^[12]

AI networking: Tomahawk 6, Jericho4 and “quantum‑safe” storage

Broadcom is also pushing hard on the AI networking and storage plumbing that large language models rely on:

At the 2025 OCP Global Summit in October, Broadcom showcased a suite of AI networking chips—Tomahawk 6, Tomahawk Ultra, Jericho4 and the third‑generation TH6‑Davisson co‑packaged optics—targeting high‑bandwidth, low‑latency Ethernet fabrics for scale‑up and scale‑out AI clusters. ^[13]
In November, it launched “quantum‑safe” Brocade Gen 8 SAN platforms, billed as the world’s first 128G Fibre Channel systems designed for mission‑critical AI workloads, with built‑in “SAN AI” features and post‑quantum cryptography. Analysts noted the announcement helped push the stock higher on the day, reinforcing Broadcom’s positioning as an end‑to‑end AI infrastructure vendor, not just a chipmaker. TechStock²

Taken together, Broadcom now touches AI compute, networking, storage and cloud software, giving it a broader footprint than many pure‑play chip rivals.

3. VMware, ING and the Software Side of the Story

Broadcom’s VMware acquisition and its infrastructure software portfolio are increasingly central to the AVGO bull case.

On December 6, 2025, Simply Wall St highlighted a new deal with ING, under which the European bank is expanding its private‑cloud modernization using VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 across multiple regions, with a focus on security, compliance and data sovereignty. ^[14]

The article argues that:

The ING win shows VMware Cloud Foundation is becoming mission‑critical financial infrastructure, reinforcing Broadcom’s software narrative rather than just its AI chip story.
Broadcom’s long‑term model projects revenue of about $119.6 billion and earnings of $50.8 billion by 2028, requiring ~26% annual revenue growth from current levels.
Simply Wall St’s intrinsic value workup suggests a fair value around $403–404 per share, only a few percent above recent prices, with community estimates spanning roughly $249–$415, underlining how split valuations are. ^[15]

In Q3, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment, anchored by VMware, generated about $6.8 billion in revenue, up 17% YoY, with extremely high gross margins approaching 93%. Management guided Q4 software revenue to about $6.7 billion, implying continued double‑digit growth even as AI hardware grabs headlines. ^[16]

For investors, the key question is whether Broadcom can tighten the link between VMware’s recurring software revenue and its AI hardware footprint – so that as enterprises build hybrid AI environments, they naturally standardize on Broadcom for both chips and cloud infrastructure.

4. What to Expect From the December 11 Earnings Report

Broadcom has scheduled its Q4 and full‑year FY2025 results for Thursday, December 11, 2025. ^[17]

Consensus expectations and company guidance center on:

Q4 revenue: about $17.4–$17.5 billion, up roughly 24–25% year over year. ^[18]
Adjusted EPS: around $1.86–$1.87, up ~32% vs. the prior‑year quarter. ^[19]
AI semiconductor revenue: management has signaled around $6.2 billion, which would mark an ~66% YoY jump and an 11th consecutive quarter of AI growth. ^[20]
Backlog: investors will look for an update on the $110 billion order book, especially how much is AI hardware vs. software and how quickly Broadcom is converting those bookings into shipped revenue. ^[21]

IG’s pre‑earnings analysis stresses that Broadcom now trades at a trailing P/E near 96x, with earnings growing about 31–32%, but also carrying one of the highest debt‑to‑equity ratios (around 88%) among large chip makers. That means the bar for execution is extremely high: any disappointment on growth, margins or backlog conversion could trigger a sharp rerating. ^[22]

AInvest echoes that view, flagging that Broadcom’s AI revenue is projected at $6.2 billion for Q4 but that the market expects total revenue to hit or exceed the $17.4 billion guidance. With some models putting Broadcom at ~97x earnings and roughly 28x sales, the stock is unusually sensitive to even minor misses, especially around AI metrics. ^[23]

Key things to watch on the call:

AI chip revenue vs. the $6.2B target and commentary on 2026–2027 AI demand, including the 10GW OpenAI deal and the ramp of the fourth XPU customer. ^[24]
VMware Cloud Foundation traction – especially large deployments like ING – churn risk from smaller customers after aggressive pricing changes, and how quickly subscription revenue is growing. ^[25]
Gross and operating margin trends as AI hardware mix rises and software margins offset pressure. ^[26]
Any update on China exposure, trade restrictions and competition in custom AI silicon. ^[27]

5. Wall Street Sentiment and Price Targets

The tone from the Street is overwhelmingly positive, even as some valuation concerns creep in.

Consensus remains “Buy”

MarketBeat: 35 analysts, 34 Buy / Strong Buy, 1 Hold, average target $391.04, high $472, low $210, implying modest average upside but meaningful upside at the top end. ^[28]
QuiverQuant’s compilation of recent ratings shows 18 firms with “Buy”‑type recommendations and no “Sell” ratings, with a median price target around $400. ^[29]

Fresh target hikes into earnings

Over just the last few days:

Oppenheimer raised its AVGO price target from $400 to $435 while reiterating an “Outperform” rating. ^[30]
Susquehanna increased its target from $400 to $450, keeping a “Positive” rating, citing Broadcom’s 10GW AI rack deal and central role in global AI infrastructure. ^[31]
Morgan Stanley lifted its target from $409 to $443, arguing Broadcom’s AI processor revenue could outpace Nvidia’s in 2026 as custom accelerators proliferate. ^[32]
Bank of America raised its target from $400 to $460, highlighting Broadcom’s growing leverage to Google’s TPU ecosystem and viewing AI demand as durable into 2027. ^[33]
UBS took its target up to $472, one of the highest on the Street, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. ^[34]

Finbold summarises these moves by noting that Wall Street now sees ~8–9% upside on average, with the possibility of far more if Broadcom delivers on its AI backlog and OpenAI deal. ^[35]

Valuation: premium, but how premium?

Different data providers, using different time frames and definitions, produce a range of valuation metrics:

Zacks currently pegs Broadcom’s forward P/E around 41.5x, above the semiconductor industry average near 34.6x, but with a PEG ratio around 1.1, roughly half the industry’s average of 2.0. ^[36]
IG and AInvest cite trailing P/E ratios in the mid‑90s, reflecting AI‑turbocharged earnings and the stock’s big run‑up. ^[37]

The takeaway: Broadcom trades at a clear premium to peers, but bulls argue the combination of AI hardware, AI‑ready networking and high‑margin software justifies it, while skeptics see very little room for error.

6. Ownership Trends: Institutions Buying, Insiders Selling

Fresh 13F filings show a mixed but active institutional picture.

Two new MarketBeat filings published on December 6 highlight both sides:

Shepherd Financial Partners LLC increased its AVGO position by 15.8% in Q2, to 34,189 shares worth about $9.4 million, making Broadcom roughly 1% of its portfolio. ^[38]
Seaview Investment Managers LLC, by contrast, cut its Broadcom stake by 71.6%, selling 59,091 shares and ending the quarter with 23,417 shares worth about $6.46 million. ^[39]

Both reports note that institutional investors collectively own about 76% of Broadcom’s outstanding shares, underlining its status as a large‑cap institutional favorite. ^[40]

On the insider side, both MarketBeat and QuiverQuant point to heavy net selling:

MarketBeat estimates insiders sold about 665,000 shares (~$225.5 million) last quarter, including sizable disposals by co‑founder Henry Samueli. ^[41]
QuiverQuant’s insider dashboard shows 93 insider sales vs. just 3 insider purchases in the last six months, with Samueli and CEO Hock Tan together selling well over 1.2 million shares, worth hundreds of millions of dollars. ^[42]

QuiverQuant also tracks active congressional and hedge‑fund activity in AVGO, with some members of the U.S. Congress (including high‑profile names) accumulating positions and large asset managers both adding and trimming sizable stakes. ^[43]

Heavy insider selling doesn’t automatically mean a top is in, but when combined with high valuations, it adds a note of caution for investors who are late to the trade.

7. Key Risks: Concentration, Competition and the AI Cycle

Recent risk‑focused pieces from Trefis and AInvest outline a few big concerns.

Customer concentration and AI competition

Trefis notes that one semiconductor customer accounted for about 32% of Broadcom’s Q3 2025 net revenue, largely tied to AI chips. If that customer or other hyperscalers slow AI capex, switch to in‑house silicon, or re‑negotiate pricing, Broadcom’s growth could quickly decelerate. ^[44]
Competition in custom AI silicon is intensifying from rivals like Marvell, Nvidia’s own networking roadmap, and hyperscalers designing more of their own chips. Even with Broadcom’s networking lead, this could pressure margins or market share over time. ^[45]

VMware churn and regulatory headwinds

VMware’s fast revenue growth has been aided by aggressive pricing and a push to subscriptions. Trefis flags the risk that smaller VMware customers and partners could balk at changes like higher core minimums, leading to churn after the initial conversion tailwind fades. ^[46]
AInvest also points to China‑related trade restrictions and geopolitical friction as ongoing headwinds for AI chip demand and supply chains. ^[47]

Valuation and drawdown history

Trefis stresses that Broadcom has experienced multiple 30–40% drawdowns in prior market corrections, despite strong fundamentals, and currently trades at about 69x earnings in its model—nearly three times the S&P 500 median P/E. ^[48]

The message is clear: AVGO is not immune to big pullbacks, and at today’s valuation, even good news might not be good enough if the market has already priced in perfection.

8. How Broadcom Fits Into the AI Stock Landscape

Broadcom has now secured a spot in many “must‑watch AI stock” lists:

NerdWallet includes AVGO among the six best‑performing AI stocks in its December overview, citing its role in designing specialized AI chips for major tech firms like Alphabet. ^[49]
Tech and markets outlets also frequently highlight Broadcom’s combination of AI hardware growth and recurring software revenue as a differentiator versus more cyclical, chip‑only peers. TechStock²+1

But as the AI trade matures, investors are increasingly debating whether mega‑cap AI winners are in a bubble or simply repricing for a structurally higher earnings power. The split between conservative fair‑value estimates around the low‑$400s and bullish targets near $470–$535 captures that tension. ^[50]

9. Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction AI Winner With Little Room for Error

As of December 6, 2025, the Broadcom stock story looks like this:

Fundamentals: explosive AI semiconductor growth, a $110 billion backlog, and high‑margin VMware software underpinning one of the strongest earnings trajectories in large‑cap tech. ^[51]
Catalysts: the December 11 earnings report, the ramp of a fourth XPU customer, the massive OpenAI chip order, and continued VMware Cloud Foundation deployments like the ING deal. ^[52]
Sentiment: Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish, with a wave of fresh price‑target upgrades and consensus “Buy” ratings. ^[53]
Risks: stretched valuations, heavy insider selling, dependence on a handful of hyperscale customers, VMware churn risk, and macro/China uncertainties around AI capex. ^[54]

For investors following AVGO, the upcoming earnings report is likely to be a binary moment: a strong beat and upbeat 2026 AI outlook could justify another leg higher, while any sign of slowing AI momentum, margin compression or backlog fatigue could spark a sharp correction in a stock priced for near‑flawless execution.

As always, this overview is for information and news purposes only and is not financial advice. Whether Broadcom belongs in a portfolio depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification, especially given how tightly it is tied to the AI cycle and a small group of very large customers.