BlackBerry Stock Outlook: Can BB’s Cybersecurity and QNX Wins Power the Next Leg Higher in 2025

As of 6 December 2025, BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) is back on many traders’ and long‑term investors’ watchlists. The former smartphone icon is now a pure‑play software company, leaning heavily on cybersecurity and automotive/IoT software as it heads into a closely watched Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report on 18 December 2025. ^[1]

The big question: after a huge rebound off 2024 lows, a sale of its Cylance business, and multiple guidance resets, is BlackBerry stock primed for further gains — or already priced for perfection?

BlackBerry stock today: price, range and recent performance

At Friday’s close (5 December 2025), BlackBerry shares traded at about $4.32, up 1.65% on the day, with roughly 5 million shares changing hands. ^[2]

Key trading stats as of early December:

Latest close: ~$4.32
Intraday range (Dec 5): ~$4.23–$4.36 ^[3]
52‑week range: roughly $2.53–$6.24 ^[4]
Market cap: around $2.5–2.6 billion ^[5]
Average daily volume: a little over 5 million shares ^[6]

From a performance standpoint, BB has quietly staged a big comeback. Data from Investing.com show a ~66–67% share price gain over the past year, while a widely circulated December 2nd analysis highlighted a 55.6% one‑year rally, despite a sharp 18.7% pullback over the past month and only a small gain year‑to‑date. ^[7]

Short‑term technicals have also turned constructive. Technical research site StockInvest.us upgraded BB from “Hold/Accumulate” to “Buy candidate” after the 5 December session, noting that: ^[8]

The stock has risen in 7 of the last 10 trading days, up about 4.6% over the past two weeks.
Price is moving inside a wide, horizontal trading range, with a 90% probability (per their model) of finishing the next three months somewhere between about $4.01 and $5.06.
Short‑term momentum indicators are positive, while longer‑term moving averages still flash a more cautious signal.

In other words, BB is trading near the middle of its 52‑week band, roughly 30% below its recent high near $6.24 but well above its lows around $2.5–2.6 — a classic “recovery with volatility” profile. ^[9]

From Cylance sale to software reboot: the 2025 reset

Much of BlackBerry’s current setup traces back to a messy but important reset earlier in 2025.

Cylance sale to Arctic Wolf

In February 2025, BlackBerry completed the sale of its Cylance endpoint security assets to Arctic Wolf in a deal worth about $160 million in cash plus roughly 5.5 million Arctic Wolf shares. ^[10]

The transaction formally closed around 3–4 February 2025, with about $80 million paid at closing and another tranche scheduled a year later, according to regulatory and company filings. ^[11]
Roughly 400 employees moved from BlackBerry to Arctic Wolf as part of the deal, making Cylance a core pillar of Arctic Wolf’s Aurora endpoint platform. ^[12]

BlackBerry originally acquired Cylance for $1.4 billion in 2018, so the sale price implies a steep write‑down — but it also removed a capital‑intensive, highly competitive business and freed up cash to focus on higher‑margin, recurring software. ^[13]

Revenue reset and investor backlash

The financial reset showed up clearly in April 2025:

BlackBerry guided fiscal 2026 revenue to $504–534 million, below both the prior year’s ~$535 million and analyst expectations near $567 million. ^[14]
Q4 FY2025 revenue came in at about $141.7 million with adjusted EPS of $0.03, beating forecasts but still down year‑over‑year. ^[15]
The weaker outlook, especially for the Secure Communications (cybersecurity) segment, sent the stock down 7–11% in a single session and extended a week‑long slide. ^[16]

At that moment, the market narrative was grim: BlackBerry had just sold a major cybersecurity asset, and management was forecasting declining revenue even as global security spending continued to rise.

Guidance climbs again: earnings momentum through mid‑2025

Throughout the remainder of 2025, BlackBerry worked to rebuild credibility — and the guidance story gradually improved.

June 2025: first guidance bump

On 24 June 2025, BlackBerry raised its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $508–538 million, up from the earlier $504–534 million range. ^[17]

The company cited stronger demand for cybersecurity software, even after exiting Cylance, and improving traction in its Secure Communications business. ^[18]
Q1 FY2026 revenue of roughly $121.7 million still declined modestly year‑on‑year, but QNX (IoT) revenue rose around 8% to $57.5 million. ^[19]

Finimize’s August “software reboot” deep dive noted that heading into FY2026: ^[20]

Management was targeting QNX revenue of $250–270 million and Secure Communications revenue of $234–244 million for the year.
96% of total revenue was already recurring.
QNX powered software in more than 255 million vehicles worldwide, cementing its status as a high‑moat embedded platform.

September 2025: Q2 FY2026 beat and a second guidance hike

The real inflection came on 25 September 2025, when BlackBerry reported Q2 FY2026 results:

Total revenue:$129.6 million, ahead of analyst expectations around $122 million. ^[21]
GAAP EPS: a profit of $0.02 per share, versus a loss of $0.03 a year earlier. ^[22]
Adjusted gross margin: about 75%; adjusted EBITDA ~$25.9 million, roughly 20% of revenue. ^[23]
IoT/QNX segment: around $63 million in revenue, up mid‑teens % year‑on‑year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin in the low 30s, helped by big ADAS design wins and partnerships involving BMW, Qualcomm and NVIDIA. ^[24]

On the back of this performance, BlackBerry raised its full‑year FY2026 revenue outlook again, to $519–541 million, citing “resilient software spending” and rising cyber threat activity. ^[25]

Shares ticked higher on the day, and the narrative shifted from “shrinking legacy security vendor” toward “early‑stage, profitable software turnaround.”

December 2025 catalysts: QNX EV win and SecuSUITE on Windows

The last few weeks have brought two high‑profile product catalysts just as investors gear up for Q3 results.

1. QNX Sound lands a luxury EV design win in China

On 2 December 2025, BlackBerry’s QNX division announced a major design win with one of China’s top automakers, which will deploy QNX Sound across its next‑generation luxury EV lineup starting in 2026. ^[26]

Key points from the announcement:

QNX Sound is a software‑defined audio platform that centralizes voice, media playback, alerts and noise control in one software layer, decoupled from hardware. ^[27]
An independent study by Munro & Associates estimates that using QNX Sound can save automakers $21 per mass‑market vehicle and up to $98 per premium model in hardware and manufacturing costs, while enabling richer in‑car audio experiences. ^[28]

A recent analysis from Kalkine Media framed the deal as strengthening BlackBerry’s influence in the S&P/TSX Composite Index’s tech segment, arguing that QNX’s embedded architecture is increasingly central to “next‑generation cabin technologies” in luxury EVs across Asia. ^[29]

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: each new QNX platform win can translate into years of high‑margin royalty streams if the underlying vehicle program sells well.

2. SecuSUITE expands to Windows desktops and laptops

In October 2025, BlackBerry announced that SecuSUITE, its sovereign‑grade secure communications product, is being extended from mobile devices to Windows desktops and laptops. ^[30]

The Windows version (SecuSUITE for Windows Desktop) became generally available in November 2025, bringing encrypted voice, messaging and file sharing to traditional workplace endpoints. ^[31]
The platform targets governments and critical enterprises, offering on‑prem, private‑cloud or hosted deployment options while maintaining “sovereign‑grade” control over sensitive communications. ^[32]

SecuSUITE’s expansion matters because BlackBerry is positioning Secure Communications as a core pillar of growth after divesting Cylance. Broadening device coverage deepens wallet share with existing government customers and may open the door to new contracts in regions where Windows PCs remain the default workplace tool.

Earnings preview: what to watch on 18 December 2025

BlackBerry is scheduled to report Q3 FY2026 results on 18 December 2025 at 5:30 p.m. ET. ^[33]

Consensus expectations vary slightly by data provider:

Public.com cites an EPS estimate of about –$0.04 per share for the upcoming quarter. ^[34]
A Zacks‑syndicated note (via SwingTradeBot) suggests EPS around +$0.04 for the next release, with full‑year FY2026 EPS of about $0.14 and revenue near $529 million. ^[35]

The discrepancy underscores that estimates are still in flux as analysts digest the Q2 beat, the Cylance sale, and higher guidance levels. What most observers agree on:

The trajectory of full‑year guidance (currently $519–541 million) will be more important than the exact Q3 EPS print. ^[36]
Investors will scrutinize the growth gap between QNX (IoT) and Secure Communications: QNX has been growing at high single to low double digits, while Secure Communications has faced revenue pressure. ^[37]

Given the current setup, a strong Q3 that maintains or nudges guidance higher could reinforce the bull case that BlackBerry is entering a multi‑year, software‑driven earnings upcycle.

Analyst ratings and price targets: mostly “Hold,” modest upside

On Wall Street, sentiment toward BB is cautious but improving.

MarketWatch data show an average recommendation of “Hold” from around 10 analysts, with an average target price near $5.06. ^[38]
MarketBeat reports a similar “Hold” consensus based on 8 analysts: 1 Sell, 6 Hold, 1 Buy. ^[39]
Public.com lists 6 analysts also rating the stock a Hold, with a 2025 price prediction around $5.10. ^[40]

With BB trading around $4.32, those targets imply potential upside of roughly 17–18%, but they also signal that few analysts see a clear reason to be aggressively bullish yet.

On valuation:

Trailing P/E is eye‑catching — roughly 128x earnings based on ~$0.03 EPS — simply because BlackBerry only recently returned to modest profitability. ^[41]
Forward P/E, using consensus FY2026 EPS estimates, lands near 29x, almost identical to the Internet‑Software industry average (~29x) according to Zacks’ comparison. ^[42]
A Finimize fundamental review pegs BlackBerry’s EV/sales multiple near 4.8x, slightly above its own 5‑year average (~4.3x) and broadly in line with the market, but still below many pure‑play cybersecurity peers. ^[43]

In short, BB is no longer “deep value”, but the market isn’t pricing it like a scorching growth story either. Most sell‑side shops appear to be waiting for several more clean quarters before re‑rating the stock.

Short‑term technical view: constructive but still choppy

For traders focused on shorter time frames, the picture is mixed but leaning positive.

StockInvest.us’ latest technical commentary (as of 5 December) highlights: ^[44]

Short‑term buy signals from momentum and MACD indicators, after a pivot bottom identified on 1 December.
Price currently hugging support around $4.31, with resistance near $4.65 and then around $4.96 based on accumulated volume levels.
Average daily volatility around 3%, with intraday moves of about 2.5–3% considered typical — pointing to medium trading risk.
A 3‑month expected range of roughly $4.01–$5.06 within the current horizontal trend, assuming no big fundamental shock.

Technical models are inherently noisy, but they reinforce what the price chart already suggests: BB is in a broad consolidation after a big 12‑month run, and fresh fundamental catalysts (good or bad) will likely determine the next major leg.

Strategic backdrop: cybersecurity tailwinds and QNX moat

Beyond quarterly noise, the long‑term thesis still revolves around two franchises:

Secure Communications & cybersecurity
QNX and IoT/automotive software

BlackBerry’s own Global Threat Report notes that its cybersecurity systems blocked over 430,000 targeted attacks in a single recent quarter, emphasizing the intensity of the threat landscape. ^[45]

Finimize’s analysis underlines some structural positives: ^[46]

Operating margin has swung from a 5‑year average around –32% to roughly +15%, thanks to cost cuts and software mix shift.
The company sits on a net cash position (negative net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA), giving it flexibility for R&D, acquisitions and buybacks.
92% dollar‑based net retention and 96% recurring revenue create a more predictable cash‑flow profile than in BlackBerry’s hardware days.

Meanwhile, the QNX platform has quietly become a de facto standard for safety‑critical automotive software, embedded in hundreds of millions of vehicles and now branching into audio, digital cockpits and advanced driver‑assist systems. ^[47]

The newly announced Chinese luxury EV win for QNX Sound, plus earlier ADAS partnerships with BMW/Qualcomm and NVIDIA, are tangible proof points that automotive OEMs still view QNX as a strategic asset — and that BlackBerry can monetize that trust over very long product cycles. ^[48]

Key risks investors should keep in mind

Despite the improving story, BB remains a higher‑risk mid‑cap. Major risks include:

Execution and guidance risk
- The April revenue reset showed how quickly sentiment can reverse if guidance disappoints. Management will need to deliver on the $519–541 million revenue range and keep margins trending upward to justify current multiples. ^[49]
Segment divergence
- QNX and IoT are growing nicely, but Secure Communications has seen revenue pressure at times. If cybersecurity growth doesn’t re‑accelerate post‑Cylance, the overall top line could stagnate. ^[50]
Competition
- In cybersecurity, BlackBerry faces heavyweights like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks; in automotive, it competes with alternative OS stacks and in‑house solutions from OEMs. ^[51]
Volatility and valuation
- With a beta around 1.6 and annualized volatility in the mid‑30% range, BB tends to move more sharply than the broader market. ^[52]
- Trailing valuation metrics (like that triple‑digit P/E) remain optically rich, which can amplify drawdowns if growth stumbles.
Spin‑off and portfolio strategy uncertainty
- BlackBerry has a history of reviewing and revising its IoT spin‑off plans; any renewed changes or delays could create uncertainty around longer‑term capital allocation and structure. ^[53]

Outlook: is BlackBerry stock a buy heading into 2026?

Putting it all together:

Fundamentals: BlackBerry has moved from loss‑making to modestly profitable, raised full‑year guidance twice in 2025, and is building a portfolio anchored by high‑margin software with heavy recurring revenue. ^[54]
Growth engines: QNX continues to rack up automotive design wins (most recently with a leading Chinese luxury EV maker) while SecuSUITE is broadening its reach across Windows endpoints in sensitive government and enterprise environments. ^[55]
Market view: Analyst coverage is neutral on average (“Hold”), but with mid‑teens percentage upside implied by consensus price targets around $5.00–5.10. ^[56]
Technical set‑up: The stock is consolidating in the mid‑$4s after a strong 12‑month rebound, with short‑term indicators skewing constructive but not euphoric. ^[57]

Whether that makes BB a buy, hold or avoid depends heavily on your risk tolerance and time horizon:

Short‑term traders may see an opportunity around the 18 December earnings event, especially if volatility spikes and guidance surprises to the upside or downside.
Long‑term investors who believe in the secular growth of cybersecurity and automotive software, and who are comfortable with mid‑cap volatility and execution risk, might view current levels as a way to accumulate ahead of a potential multi‑year re‑rating — but only with a clear risk‑management plan.

As always, this article is informational only and not personalized investment advice. Consider your own financial situation, risk profile and time horizon, and if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.