Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stock Outlook December 6, 2025: Q3 Beat, Berkshire Deal and Wall Street Forecasts

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) is ending the first week of December 2025 at around $42–43 per share, leaving the stock down in the mid‑teens percentage range for the year even after a solid third‑quarter earnings beat and major balance-sheet moves. ^[1]

At the same time, the company is reshaping its portfolio through asset sales and the $9.7 billion sale of its OxyChem chemical unit to Berkshire Hathaway, while doubling down on direct air capture (DAC) and carbon management as long‑term growth drivers. ^[2]

Here’s a detailed, news‑driven look at Occidental Petroleum stock as of December 6, 2025, covering the latest price action, institutional flows, earnings, dividend, debt reduction, Wall Street forecasts, and the growing role of carbon capture in OXY’s story.

1. Occidental Petroleum stock today: price, valuation and volatility

Based on the latest market data and recent analyst rundowns:

Share price: about $42.4 per share as of early December 2025. ^[3]
Market capitalization: roughly $41–42 billion. ^[4]
52‑week range:
- Low around $34.78
- High around $53.20 ^[5]
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E ratio ~31x, reflecting compressed earnings and cyclicality. ^[6]
Balance-sheet snapshot:
- Debt‑to‑equity ~0.73
- Quick ratio ~0.71, current ratio ~0.94, indicating adequate near‑term liquidity but still a levered balance sheet. ^[7]

According to a recent MarketBeat note, Occidental shares have underperformed broader indices and energy peers in 2025, falling roughly in the mid‑teens percent over the past year despite oil price volatility and periodic rallies. ^[8]

In short: OXY is trading in the middle of its 12‑month range at a multiple that bakes in cyclical risk but also reflects optimism about future cash flows and the company’s decarbonization push.

2. The latest headline: institutional flows and analyst sentiment (December 6, 2025)

A fresh December 6, 2025 filing‑driven article highlights how institutional money is positioning around Occidental:

Mirabella Financial Services LLP cut its holdings in OXY by 76.1% in Q2, selling about 36,950 shares and retaining 11,608 shares worth roughly $490,000. ^[9]
This sits against broad institutional accumulation:
- Vanguard increased its position by 17.8% to more than 80 million shares.
- Geode Capital lifted its stake by 22% to about 18 million shares.
- Other large managers, including Nuveen and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, also added or initiated positions. ^[10]
As a result, institutional investors now own around 88.7% of Occidental’s outstanding stock, a high level of professional ownership that can both stabilize and amplify moves depending on sentiment. ^[11]

The same piece reiterates that Wall Street’s consensus rating on OXY is “Hold”, with an average price target near $50.5 and a wide spread between bullish and bearish targets. ^[12]

Takeaway: Big money is deeply involved in OXY – some institutions are trimming, but the overall picture is one of heavy institutional ownership plus mixed, but closely watched, analyst sentiment.

3. Q3 2025 earnings: a beat driven by higher output, despite weaker prices

Occidental’s most recent earnings report, released on November 10, 2025, was a key catalyst for the stock and a reference point for today’s valuation.

3.1 Headline numbers

According to Reuters and the company’s own Q3 release: ^[13]

Adjusted EPS:$0.64 per share
- Beat consensus around $0.52–0.48, a positive surprise of roughly 20–30%. ^[14]
GAAP net income: about $661 million, down from the prior year as oil prices softened. ^[15]
Revenue: roughly $6.6 billion, down about 6.1% year‑on‑year, reflecting lower realized commodity prices even as volumes increased. ^[16]
Production:
- Average global production around 1.46 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d), up from 1.41 MMboe/d a year earlier.
- Q4 2025 production guidance is 1.44–1.48 MMboe/d, slightly above Street expectations at the midpoint. ^[17]
Realized oil price: around $64.78 per barrel vs. $75.33 a year earlier, showing how much lower oil prices weigh on revenue even when volumes are strong. ^[18]
Cash flow:
- Operating cash flow before working capital: about $3.2 billion
- Capital expenditures plus contributions: about $1.8 billion
- Free cash flow before working capital: around $1.5 billion in the quarter. ^[19]

So Q3 painted a classic picture for a cyclical producer:

Higher volumes + lower prices = lower revenue, but strong cost control and portfolio quality still led to an earnings beat and meaningful free cash flow.

3.2 Debt reduction and portfolio reshaping

Occidental continues to use that cash flow – plus asset sales – to chip away at the debt pile that ballooned after earlier acquisitions:

In Q3 alone, the company repaid about $1.3 billion of debt, bringing long‑term net debt to roughly $20.85 billion as of September 30, 2025. ^[20]
A corporate update from August notes that OXY has:
- Announced four divestitures since April 2025, totaling about $950 million in proceeds.
- Achieved around $4 billion in divestitures since announcing the CrownRock acquisition in December 2023.
- Repaid about $7.5 billion of debt since July 2024, aided by these sales. ^[21]

This is happening alongside large‑scale strategic moves like the sale of the OxyChem chemicals unit to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion, the company’s biggest single divestiture to date, explicitly aimed at accelerating deleveraging after years of acquisition‑driven growth. ^[22]

3.3 Earnings quality and investor narrative

Simply Wall St’s post‑earnings analysis sums it up neatly:

Q3 brought better efficiency, cost control and debt reduction, even as adjusted earnings fell 36% year‑on‑year and revenue declined 6.1%.
The investment case now hinges on steady cash flows from oil and gas plus the long‑term upside of carbon capture and decarbonization projects. ^[23]

In other words, operations are solid, but the earnings power of those operations is at the mercy of oil and gas prices – and the market is still deciding how much to pay for Occidental’s carbon‑capture ambitions.

4. Dividend update: ex‑dividend approaching on December 10, 2025

Income‑oriented investors have a key date circled on their calendars.

4.1 Current dividend and yield

Recent coverage from both Simply Wall St and MarketBeat confirms that: ^[24]

Occidental has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share.
The stock is expected to go ex‑dividend on December 10, 2025.
The payout is scheduled for January 15, 2026.
On a trailing basis, OXY has paid $0.96 per share over the last 12 months, implying a dividend yield of about 2.2–2.3% at recent prices.
The payout ratio is estimated around 60–70% of earnings, but around 48% of free cash flow, which commentators view as reasonably sustainable so long as earnings don’t collapse. ^[25]

Simply Wall St also notes that:

Earnings per share have grown strongly over the last five years, yet dividends per share have actually declined around 10% annually over the last decade, reflecting past resets and capital allocation re‑prioritizations. ^[26]

Implication: today’s dividend isn’t huge by energy‑sector standards, but it looks well‑covered by cash flow and is now part of a broader capital‑return mix that includes debt paydown and, potentially, future buybacks.

5. Wall Street forecasts: wide range, consensus “Hold”

The current analyst landscape around Occidental is nuanced and somewhat divided.

5.1 Price targets and ratings

Different aggregators give slightly different numbers, but they cluster tightly:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Hold”.
- Rating breakdown: 1 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 14 Hold, 3 Sell.
- Average price target: $50.52. ^[27]
GuruFocus:
- 24 analysts’ 12‑month targets.
- Average target: $49.93.
- High estimate: $64.
- Low estimate: $38.
- The average implies roughly 19% upside from a price around $41.80 at the time of that report. ^[28]

Concrete recent actions include:

Mizuho (November 11, 2025):
- Maintained “Outperform” rating.
- Raised price target from $60 to $64, reinforcing a bullish stance. ^[29]
Wells Fargo:
- Recently cut its price objective from $42 to $40, maintaining an “Underweight” rating. ^[30]
Other houses such as HSBC, Piper Sandler, JP Morgan, Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley have also trimmed or fine‑tuned targets in the mid‑40s to low‑50s range, often pairing neutral ratings with modest implied upside. ^[31]

Various trading‑oriented commentaries from mid‑2025 also point out that Raymond James and Wolfe Research have had more aggressive targets (around the mid‑50s to high‑60s, with “outperform”‑type ratings), highlighting the upside scenario if oil prices hold up and OXY’s strategy executes cleanly. ^[32]

5.2 Earnings forecasts

On the earnings side, the news this week was slightly negative:

A new December 4, 2025 MarketBeat summary reports that Zacks Research cut its FY2025 EPS estimate for OXY to $2.17, down from $2.22.
Street‑wide, the consensus full‑year EPS estimate is still around $3.58. ^[33]

Simply Wall St’s longer‑term narrative suggests:

Forecasts that by 2028 Occidental could be generating about $29 billion in revenue and $3.7 billion in earnings, supporting a fair‑value estimate of around $50.21 per share – roughly 20% above current levels. ^[34]

Taken together, analyst models often assume:

Near‑term earnings pressure from potentially weaker oil prices and high capital needs.
Moderate growth in production and cash flows as CrownRock and other core assets mature.
Optionality from carbon capture and DAC projects that are difficult to value but could be material if subsidies, carbon credit markets and customer demand all line up.

6. Macro environment: oil prices under pressure into 2026

Occidental’s core business is still heavily tethered to crude oil and natural gas prices, and macro forecasts are turning more cautious for the mid‑2020s.

A recent Goldman Sachs energy outlook report via Reuters expects: ^[35]

The oil market to remain in significant surplus (around 2 million barrels per day) through 2026, driven by a wave of long‑cycle projects and OPEC+ supply coming back online.
Brent crude averaging about $56 per barrel in 2026, with WTI around $52, both below current forward curves.
A rebound by late 2028, with Brent/WTI drifting back toward $80/$76 as low prices in 2025–26 curb non‑OPEC supply and underinvestment bites.

For Occidental, that implies:

Short‑to‑medium‑term headwinds for revenue and margins if realized oil prices trend closer to the mid‑50s rather than the 70s.
Potential long‑term support for prices later in the decade, which would help justify higher production growth and the capital intensity of large DAC and carbon‑management projects.

The stock’s current valuation – a modest premium to near‑term earnings but with a discount to more bullish long‑term targets – arguably reflects this two‑speed macro outlook.

7. Carbon capture and DAC: from concept to commercial business

One of the most important – and controversial – parts of Occidental’s story heading into 2026 is its Direct Air Capture (DAC) and carbon‑management strategy.

7.1 STRATOS: the flagship DAC hub

Occidental, through its 1PointFive subsidiary, is building STRATOS, a massive DAC facility in Ector County, Texas:

STRATOS is designed to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year from the atmosphere once fully operational. ^[36]
Construction is largely complete, and multiple sources report the project is on track to launch commercial operations by late 2025 or mid‑2025 depending on the specific milestone referenced. ^[37]
Occidental and 1PointFive have secured Class VI permits from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Texas regulators to sequester CO₂ underground, clearing a crucial regulatory hurdle. ^[38]
The project has attracted significant outside capital, including a $550 million investment from BlackRock, and advance purchases of carbon removal credits from major customers such as Microsoft and AT&T. ^[39]

7.2 South Texas DAC hub and global ambitions

In May 2025, Occidental and ADNOC’s investment arm XRG signed an agreement to explore a joint venture DAC facility in South Texas, where XRG may invest up to $500 million in a 500,000‑tonne‑per‑year plant. ^[40]

At the same time, the company:

Has acquired multiple DAC technology startups, including Holocene Climate, further integrating DAC intellectual property under its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures umbrella. ^[41]
Presentations and analysis of Occidental’s strategy describe a vision where DAC hubs in Texas become a template for a global carbon‑removal network, supporting both industrial clients and, potentially, the surging power and decarbonization needs of AI‑driven data centers. ^[42]

This DAC pivot is capital intensive and still commercially unproven at scale, which is why analysts and investors assign it a wide range of values – from “nice optionality” to “core to the long‑term thesis.”

8. Berkshire Hathaway, CrownRock and the reshaped portfolio

No discussion of OXY is complete without acknowledging Warren Buffett’s involvement and the company’s recent M&A history:

Berkshire Hathaway has accumulated hundreds of millions of OXY shares, making Occidental one of its largest equity holdings; commentators report holdings around 265 million shares, plus earlier preferred equity and warrants structures. ^[43]
In October 2025, Berkshire agreed to buy OxyChem from Occidental for $9.7 billion, in a deal widely seen as a way for OXY to simplify its portfolio and accelerate debt reduction while Berkshire gets a cash‑generating chemical business it knows well. ^[44]
The $12 billion CrownRock acquisition, completed in August 2024, added a high‑quality Permian asset base but also more debt, prompting the asset sale and deleveraging program now underway. ^[45]

CEO Vicki Hollub has repeatedly framed these moves as creating “the best asset portfolio in our history” while high‑grading the company’s footprint and freeing up capital for both traditional oil & gas and carbon‑innovation projects. ^[46]

For investors, this means:

Near‑term financial risk still revolves around debt levels, interest rates and oil prices.
Long‑term upside is linked to how effectively Occidental turns its Permian position and DAC technology into durable, high‑margin platforms.

9. Bull vs. bear case for Occidental Petroleum stock

Putting the latest news, forecasts and analysis together, the investment narrative around OXY as of December 6, 2025, can be summarized as follows.

9.1 The bull case

Supporters of Occidental point to:

Earnings resilience and operational strength
- Q3 2025 showed that OXY can still beat earnings expectations and produce strong free cash flow even with mid‑60s oil. ^[47]
Debt reduction momentum and portfolio high‑grading
- Billions in asset sales, the OxyChem divestiture and steady repayments have already knocked down debt by $7.5 billion+ since mid‑2024, with more to come. ^[48]
Attractive risk/reward at current prices
- With the stock in the low‑40s, most analyst targets in the high‑40s to low‑50s imply mid‑teens to roughly 20% upside, while bullish houses like Mizuho see potential up to $64. ^[49]
Strategic edge in carbon management and DAC
- Occidental is an early mover in DAC, with STRATOS nearing startup and multiple partnerships, permits and customers already locked in – a position that could prove valuable if carbon markets and climate policy strengthen over the decade. ^[50]
Buffett’s continued involvement
- Berkshire’s long‑standing stake and now the OxyChem purchase reinforce the perception that one of the market’s most respected capital allocators sees long‑term value in Occidental’s asset base and strategy. ^[51]

9.2 The bear case

Skeptics emphasize:

Commodity price risk
- Goldman Sachs and others see oil prices drifting down through 2026, which would pressure margins and reduce the cash available for debt paydown and shareholder returns. ^[52]
High leverage and capital intensity
- Even after recent progress, net debt above $20 billion is not trivial for a company exposed to volatile commodities and now layering on multi‑billion‑dollar DAC commitments. ^[53]
Uncertain returns from DAC and carbon removal
- While STRATOS and future hubs may become significant profit centers, critics argue that unit economics, policy risk and long‑term demand for carbon credits remain unclear, making it hard to justify a big valuation premium today. ^[54]
Mixed analyst sentiment
- Multiple brokerages have cut targets or adopted “Underweight” or “Sell” ratings, and Zacks’ downward EPS revision underscores that some models see earnings risk more than earnings surprise from here. ^[55]
Macro and policy uncertainty
- Future U.S. climate policy, tax credits and global decarbonization frameworks will heavily influence DAC economics; shifts in subsidies or regulations could materially impact project returns. ^[56]

10. What to watch next for OXY investors

For traders and long‑term shareholders closely following Occidental Petroleum stock, the key upcoming catalysts and data points include:

Q4 2025 and FY 2025 results
- Whether OXY can hit or beat its 1.44–1.48 MMboe/d production guidance while maintaining capital discipline. ^[57]
- Any update to 2026 capex plans, debt‑reduction targets and carbon‑business spending.
Closing and use of proceeds from the OxyChem sale
- How quickly the $9.7 billion Berkshire deal closes and how aggressively those funds are deployed to retire debt, repurchase shares or reinvest in core assets and DAC projects. ^[58]
STRATOS commissioning and first revenue
- Concrete milestones on STRATOS start‑up, initial volumes of CO₂ captured and any new carbon credit contracts or DAC partnerships announced for 2026–2027. ^[59]
Oil price trajectory vs. Goldman and consensus forecasts
- How realized 2026 oil prices actually compare to forecasts around Brent $56 / WTI $52 – a key driver of OXY’s short‑term earnings power. ^[60]
Further analyst revisions
- Additional changes in EPS estimates or price targets, especially from influential houses (Mizuho, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, etc.), will continue to shape sentiment and may move the stock quickly on headline days. ^[61]

Final thoughts

As of December 6, 2025, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is a complex, high‑beta energy and decarbonization story:

The core oil and gas franchise is profitable and cash‑generative even at mid‑60s oil, but exposed to macro headwinds.
The balance sheet is healing, helped by asset sales and the Berkshire OxyChem deal, yet leverage is still a central part of the risk profile.
The dividend is modest but covered, offering a 2‑plus percent yield with room for growth if earnings stabilize.
The carbon capture and DAC portfolio is rapidly moving from concept to reality, with STRATOS on track and new partnerships forming – but the long‑term economics remain debated.

Wall Street’s “Hold” consensus and mid‑50s bull targets vs. high‑30s bear targets reflect that tension. For now, OXY sits in the middle of its 52‑week range, priced for uncertainty but with meaningful upside if oil prices cooperate and the carbon strategy scales successfully.

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.