Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) Stock on 6 December 2025: Price, Q3 Shock, Analyst Targets and 2026 Outlook

Updated: 6 December 2025

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE: RCL) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with a curious mix of record demand, higher earnings guidance – and a stock price that has slumped over the last three months even as most analysts stay bullish.

Below is a detailed look at the latest share price action, earnings results, analyst forecasts and institutional moves as of 6 December 2025, based on the most recent company filings and financial media coverage.

RCL stock price today and recent performance

As of the close on Friday, 5 December 2025, Royal Caribbean shares finished at $257.66, down about 0.6% on the day. ^[1]

That puts the stock:

Roughly $100 below its 12‑month high near $366.50, but still well above the 1‑year low around $164. ^[2]
Down about 26–27% over the past 90 days, according to Simply Wall St, even though it remains up year‑to‑date and has delivered roughly a 377% total return over three years. ^[3]

Trading data from Investing.com and other platforms show that RCL has slipped from the mid‑$300s in late summer to the mid‑$250s today, with daily volumes typically in the 2–5 million share range. ^[4]

At current levels, Royal Caribbean’s market capitalization is around $72.5 billion, with a trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio close to 18x and a P/E‑to‑growth (PEG) ratio under 1, reflecting strong forecasted profit growth. ^[5]

Q3 2025 results: big earnings beat, cautious near‑term guidance

Royal Caribbean’s third‑quarter 2025 report, released on 28 October, set the tone for today’s valuation debate.

Headline numbers

According to company filings and earnings‑call coverage:

Revenue was about $5.14 billion, up around 5% year‑on‑year, but slightly below Wall Street’s roughly $5.17–5.20 billion expectation. ^[6]
GAAP EPS came in at $5.74, and adjusted EPS at $5.75, beating consensus estimates of about $5.68–5.69 and topping the top end of management’s prior guidance range. ^[7]
Adjusted EBITDA reached roughly $2.3 billion, while net income was about $1.6 billion. ^[8]

Operationally, the quarter was strong:

Load factor hit 112% – essentially full ships with some over‑occupancy from families sharing cabins. ^[9]
Net yields (revenue per passenger cruise day after commissions) rose about 2.8% reported (2.4% in constant currency), driven by higher ticket prices and onboard spending. ^[10]
Net cruise costs excluding fuel increased 4.8%, but this was nearly 200 basis points lower than the company’s own guidance, signalling improving cost control despite inflation. ^[11]

Guidance: 2025 upgraded, 2026 reassures – but not enough for the market

Management raised full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $15.58–$15.63, up from a prior range of $15.41–$15.55, implying roughly 32% earnings growth versus 2024. ^[12]

For Q4 2025, Royal Caribbean now expects:

Adjusted EPS between $2.74 and $2.79, below a roughly $2.89–$2.90 Street consensus cited by Reuters and cruise‑industry trade press. ^[13]
Net yields to rise in the 2.6–3.1% range, with net cruise costs ex‑fuel expected to fall 6.2–5.7% year‑on‑year as new ships ramp and dry‑dock days fall. ^[14]

On the 2026 outlook, CEO Jason Liberty told investors that earnings per share should “have a 17 handle,” implying at least $17 in EPS. ^[15]

That’s healthy double‑digit growth on top of 2025, but below the roughly $18.2 consensus that some analysts had pencilled in. ^[16]

Bookings and demand

Despite market jitters, the demand picture remains robust:

Booked load factors for both 2025 and 2026 are at record levels within normal ranges, with booking rates for 2026 “well above” the prior year, at the high end of historical price growth. ^[17]
Onboard and pre‑cruise spending continues to exceed prior years; about 50% of onboard revenue in Q3 was booked before sailing, and nearly 90% of those purchases were made digitally, reflecting the success of Royal Caribbean’s app‑driven upsell strategy. ^[18]

Why did the stock drop after such strong numbers?

Several factors weighed on investor sentiment immediately after Q3:

Q4 guidance and the 2026 EPS “17 handle” came in below Street hopes, even as the company raised full‑year 2025 numbers. ^[19]
Rising fuel costs, weather‑related disruptions and the continued closure of Labadee, Haiti are expected to pressure margins into year‑end. ^[20]
Reuters and Barron’s both highlighted that, although EPS beat expectations, the updated outlook was slightly shy of consensus, triggering an 8–9% single‑day sell‑off in late October. ^[21]

That Q3 “relief rally that never came” is a big reason why RCL now trades far below its early‑autumn highs despite still‑strong fundamentals.

Dividend, buybacks and balance sheet

Royal Caribbean is again returning meaningful cash to shareholders while still deleveraging from the pandemic era:

The board increased the quarterly dividend to $1.00 per share (from $0.75), implying an annualized $4.00 payout and a yield of roughly 1.5–1.6% at current prices. ^[22]
The payout ratio is modest, around 27% of earnings, leaving room for reinvestment and further balance‑sheet repair. ^[23]
In Q3, Royal Caribbean repurchased about 1.3 million shares, with roughly $345 million remaining on the current authorization at the end of September. ^[24]
Total liquidity stood near $6.8 billion (cash plus undrawn credit lines) at 30 September 2025. ^[25]

Key leverage metrics remain elevated but improving. MarketBeat cites a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 1.67, with beta above 2 – a reminder that RCL is still a cyclical, levered consumer‑discretionary name, not a defensive bond proxy. ^[26]

Street view: analyst ratings and price targets as of early December 2025

Consensus rating: still a “Moderate Buy”

Across major data providers, Royal Caribbean retains a broadly positive analyst profile:

MarketBeat’s forecast page compiles 24 Wall Street analysts; the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy”, with 20 buys/strong buys and 4 holds. ^[27]
The average 12‑month price target is about $326, implying roughly 26–27% upside from the ~$258 share price, with individual targets ranging from $230 on the low end to $415 at the high end. ^[28]
Benzinga, aggregating around 20 analysts, reports a very similar consensus target near $330 and confirms that the most recent calls from Truist Securities and Wells Fargo still imply about 24% upside despite modest target reductions. ^[29]

Recent target cuts, not downgrades

One of the key stories in early December is a wave of target trims rather than rating cuts:

Truist Securities kept a Hold rating but cut its RCL target from $333 to $321 on 2 December. ^[30]
Wells Fargo has maintained an Overweight stance while lowering its target from $320 to $316, according to GuruFocus and Fintel. ^[31]
UBS remains a Buy but dropped its objective from $353 to $304 in mid‑November, while Barclays and J.P. Morgan also reduced their targets but kept Overweight ratings. ^[32]

GuruFocus calculates that the average one‑year target among 24 analysts is about $332, suggesting ~26% upside, even after these cuts. ^[33]

Earnings forecasts: 2025–2026

Wall Street estimates compiled by Webull and other platforms broadly line up with management’s guidance:

For fiscal 2025, analysts expect EPS of roughly $15.6, up about 32% year‑on‑year.
For 2026, consensus EPS sits around $17.9, implying mid‑teens growth on top of 2025. ^[34]

At the current share price near $257–258, that equates to:

A 2025 forward P/E of about 16.5x, and
A 2026 forward P/E of about 14.4x (based on the calculator 257.66 ÷ 17.91 ≈ 14.39).

For a company still growing EPS at double‑digit rates with strong pricing power and high load factors, many analysts view those multiples as reasonable – though not “stressed” enough to fully reflect macro and execution risk.

Is RCL stock undervalued or overvalued? A split verdict from models

One of the most interesting aspects of Royal Caribbean on 6 December 2025 is the sharp disagreement among valuation frameworks.

Simply Wall St: clearly undervalued

Simply Wall St has published two detailed pieces in recent days arguing that the recent 90‑day pullback has opened a valuation gap:

Their narrative on 6 December notes that RCL’s share price has fallen about 27% over the last three months but is still up year‑to‑date, and calculates a “most popular” fair value around $336, implying nearly 30% upside from around $258. ^[35]
A separate deep‑dive DCF analysis in early December estimates intrinsic value near $431 per share, based on free‑cash‑flow forecasts out to 2035, suggesting the stock is roughly 38% undervalued. ^[36]
On a simple P/E screen, Simply Wall St notes that Royal Caribbean trades at about 17.8x earnings, below both its wider hospitality peer group (roughly 21x) and a cruise‑peer average around 27x, and well below their proprietary “fair” multiple of 28.9x. ^[37]

Across multiple methods, they score RCL as undervalued on all six of their valuation checks.

GuruFocus: strong business, but priced above “GF Value”

GuruFocus, by contrast, reaches a more cautious conclusion:

Using its GF Value model – which blends historic trading multiples, past growth and future estimates – GuruFocus estimates a fair value of about $199.89 in one year, implying roughly 24% downside from a reference price around $264 at the time of analysis. ^[38]
At the same time, the site reports an average broker target around $331.76 and an “Outperform” consensus rating from 28 brokerage firms, highlighting the gap between model‑driven fair value and human analyst optimism. ^[39]

What the market seems to be pricing

Taken together:

Bullish models (DCF and relative P/E) suggest RCL could be worth 30–40% more than today’s price if current growth and margin trends persist. ^[40]
More conservative approaches that anchor on historical multiples and macro risk see limited upside or even downside from current levels. ^[41]

With the stock sitting roughly mid‑range between its pandemic‑era lows and recent highs, and forward P/E in the mid‑teens, the market appears to be balancing strong near‑term fundamentals against cyclical, leverage and regulatory risks.

Institutional flows: Amundi trims while big funds stay on board

Fresh SEC‑filing coverage on 6 December put a spotlight on institutional positioning:

Amundi, one of Europe’s largest asset managers, reduced its Royal Caribbean stake by about 12.9% in Q2, selling around 118,000 shares and bringing its holding down to 796,116 shares, or roughly 0.29% of the company, valued near $260 million at the time of the filing. ^[42]
However, the same filing roundup notes that Vanguard, Geode Capital, Invesco, Norges Bank and Bank of New York Mellon have all increased their positions in recent quarters. ^[43]
Overall, MarketBeat reports that institutional investors own about 87.5% of RCL’s float, underlining its status as an institutionally dominated large‑cap. ^[44]

In other words, some active managers are taking profits after the multi‑year run, but long‑only giants remain heavily invested.

Strategic growth drivers: ships, exclusive destinations and digital upsell

Beyond the numbers, several structural themes underpin the bullish case for Royal Caribbean:

New capacity and “megaships”
RCL continues to take delivery of larger, more efficient ships such as Icon of the Seas, Utopia of the Seas, Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel, driving both capacity growth and higher onboard revenue per passenger. Q4 capacity alone is expected to rise over 10% year‑on‑year. ^[45]
Exclusive destinations and beach clubs
The company is extending its high‑margin private‑destination strategy beyond the Caribbean. The newly announced Royal Beach Club Santorini, opening in summer 2026, will serve guests from both Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises and is part of a plan to expand the land‑based destination portfolio from two locations to eight by 2028. ^[46]
European media have already noted that such private beach concepts also help cruise lines navigate local capacity limits and channel more guest spending directly into the company’s ecosystem. ^[47]
Digital and pre‑cruise monetization
With about half of onboard revenue booked before sailing and nearly 90% of those transactions digital, RCL is leveraging its apps and web platforms to push excursions, drink packages and specialty dining well before guests ever board – a key driver of margin. ^[48]
Resilient demand for premium travel
Booking commentary across the Q3 report and subsequent coverage emphasizes that consumers are still prioritizing vacations, with 2026 booking rates coming in at the high end of historical pricing ranges despite macro worries. ^[49]

Key risks and what could go wrong

Even fans of the stock acknowledge several material risks:

Macro and consumer‑spending risk: Cruise lines are classic discretionary businesses. A weaker labour market, higher unemployment or a deeper economic slowdown could hurt bookings or force discounting. ^[50]
Cost inflation and fuel: Q3 showed that RCL can beat its own cost guidance, but fuel prices, wage pressures and ship‑maintenance costs remain volatile. Reuters notes that higher expenses have already tempered margin expansion and weighed on the Q4 outlook. ^[51]
Leverage and interest rates: Even as earnings climb, Royal Caribbean still carries significant debt, and a beta above 2 means the equity can be very sensitive to changes in risk appetite and rates. ^[52]
Regulation and environmental pushback: European ports are increasingly limiting cruise‑passenger numbers, and there is mounting scrutiny over emissions and local impacts. The Santorini beach club, for example, is being developed against a backdrop of stricter capacity caps in the main port and local debates over access to formerly public beaches. ^[53]
Geopolitics and weather: The continued closure of Labadee, Haiti, weather disruptions and broader geopolitical tensions all add operating risk and could temporarily strain yields or itineraries. ^[54]

For investors, the question isn’t whether Royal Caribbean will continue to generate profits – the consensus is that it will – but how much of that future growth is already in today’s mid‑teens earnings multiple.

Bottom line: what 6 December 2025 means for Royal Caribbean (RCL) investors

As of 6 December 2025, the Royal Caribbean story looks like this:

The business is firing on most cylinders: record bookings into 2026, rising yields, disciplined costs and a clear pipeline of new ships and exclusive beach clubs. ^[55]
Management has raised 2025 EPS guidance and laid out a path to 2026 EPS of $17‑plus, even after factoring in a new global minimum tax headwind. ^[56]
Analysts remain broadly positive, with a moderate‑to‑strong buy consensus and mid‑$320s average price targets, implying around 25–30% upside from current levels. ^[57]
At the same time, target prices are drifting lower, and at least one widely used fair‑value model now flags the stock as overvalued relative to its historical multiples. ^[58]

For potential or existing shareholders, that tension is the core of the decision:

If you believe that cruise demand, pricing power and RCL’s destination strategy can sustain mid‑teens EPS growth through 2026 and beyond, today’s pullback could be an attractive entry point relative to both analyst targets and some intrinsic‑value models. ^[59]
If you worry that macro conditions, regulatory pressure, higher taxes and lingering leverage will eventually compress multiples or slow growth, then the stock’s strong multi‑year run and still‑elevated cyclicality may justify caution. ^[60]

Either way, RCL remains one of the most closely watched leisure stocks heading into 2026, with news on bookings, costs, fuel and new destinations likely to move the share price well beyond what general market indices do.

Important: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a substitute for professional financial guidance. Always do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.