The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock: 70% Plunge, Cathie Wood Buying and Intuit Data Deal – Latest News & Forecasts as of December 6, 2025

The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) enters December 6, 2025 as one of the most debated names in digital advertising: the stock has crashed roughly 70% from its late‑2024 highs, yet new data partnerships and high‑profile institutional buying are quietly rebuilding the bullish case. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analyses around TTD as of December 6, 2025, with a focus on what’s driving sentiment now – and what it could mean for the stock over the coming year.

The Trade Desk stock today: still near the bottom of a painful reset

Latest price: about $40.05 per share, up around 1.8% in the latest session.
Market value: roughly $19.4 billion. ^[2]
52‑week range: about $38.22 – $139.34, putting the stock more than 70% below its 52‑week high. ^[3]

Barchart data shows The Trade Desk is down about 65% year to date and trading roughly 70.7% under its December 2024 peak, leaving investors who bought five years ago with a position worth less than half of their original investment. ^[4]

Valuation has compressed sharply but is still rich versus the broader market. MarketBeat cites a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 46x at around $40 per share, versus a 1‑year high north of $139. ^[5] GuruFocus notes similar multiples, adding that the stock’s P/E, P/S and P/B ratios are now near the lower end of their historical ranges, reflecting both the sell‑off and still‑healthy earnings. ^[6]

TipRanks flags a 12‑month price momentum of about –69% and moving‑average signals that remain negative, while its “crowd wisdom” gauge has tilted slightly bearish over the past month. ^[7] GuruFocus also points to an RSI around 30, suggesting technically oversold conditions, even as volatility remains elevated. ^[8]

In short: TTD is cheap relative to its own history, but still expensive compared with many ad‑tech peers – and sentiment remains bruised.

Fresh buying from Cathie Wood and other institutions

Despite the drawdown, several influential investors have been buying the dip.

ARK Invest and Cathie Wood

A GuruFocus report shows ARK Investment Management, led by Cathie Wood, recently added 159,000 TTD shares, explicitly framing the move as a vote of confidence in The Trade Desk’s long‑term growth potential. ^[9]
The same piece highlights TTD’s three‑year revenue growth of about 26.6%, net margin near 15.7% and operating margin around 18.9%, alongside relatively low leverage and a strong Altman Z‑Score, all of which support the long‑term bull case despite the stock’s volatility. ^[10]

A separate article on CoinCentral reviewing ARK’s December 5 trades reports that the firm sold Tesla and Meta while purchasing approximately 180,000 shares of The Trade Desk, worth about $7.1 million, as part of a rotation from mega‑cap tech into mid‑cap growth names like TTD and Baidu. ^[11]

Motley Fool coverage on December 5 similarly notes that ARK added to existing positions in The Trade Desk, alongside WeRide and Pure Storage, framing these moves as “bargain hunting” in beaten‑down growth stocks. ^[12]

Other institutional investors

The institutional interest is not limited to ARK:

A MarketBeat filing recap shows Guggenheim Capital LLC increased its TTD stake by 40% in Q2 2025, adding just over 33,000 shares to reach 115,980 shares valued around $8.35 million. ^[13]
Invesco and several other asset managers also boosted their positions in TTD during the same period, according to the same report. ^[14]

However, TipRanks’ data adds nuance: while analyst sentiment is constructive, hedge funds collectively reduced their holdings by about 1.2 million shares last quarter, and insiders have sold roughly $67,600 worth of stock over the last three months. ^[15]

Takeaway: High‑profile buyers like ARK and Guggenheim are leaning into the weakness, but not all institutional investors are on the same side of the trade.

Intuit’s SMB MediaLabs partnership: new fuel for B2B ad growth

One of the most important fundamental developments in recent weeks is a new data partnership with Intuit.

On November 24, 2025, Intuit announced that its SMB MediaLabs audiences are now available on The Trade Desk’s platform, providing advertisers access to Intuit’s first‑party small‑ and mid‑market business (SMB) audience segments. ^[16]

Key points from Intuit and independent coverage:

Intuit’s SMB MediaLabs draws on tens of billions of data points from products like QuickBooks, giving advertisers richly detailed, deterministic profiles of small‑business decision‑makers. ^[17]
The Trade Desk becomes a core demand‑side platform partner for this data, enabling precise B2B targeting across connected TV, audio, display and digital out‑of‑home channels. ^[18]
Distribution runs both through The Trade Desk’s own platform and the LiveRamp Data Marketplace, allowing privacy‑conscious access to millions of verified SMB buyers. ^[19]

A fresh Yahoo Finance analysis asks whether Intuit’s first‑party SMB data tie‑up has “quietly strengthened” The Trade Desk’s position, noting that the deal broadens TTD’s reach beyond large consumer brands and into a historically hard‑to‑reach SMB segment. ^[20]

Simply Wall St similarly comments that while the Intuit partnership diversifies TTD’s customer mix and may soften macro headwinds, it does not fully solve the competitive pressure from “walled garden” platforms such as Google and Meta. ^[21]

For investors, the strategic message is clear: The Trade Desk is doubling down on differentiated data and identity, particularly in B2B, to reinforce its open‑internet moat.

Q3 2025 earnings: growth slows, but the engine is intact

On November 6, 2025, The Trade Desk reported Q3 2025 results that were solid, if not spectacular by its own historic standards. ^[22]

From the company’s official release:

Revenue: $739 million, up 18% year over year from $628 million. ^[23]
Net income: $116 million versus $94 million a year earlier. ^[24]
Nine‑month revenue: $2.05 billion, up about 20% vs. the prior‑year period. ^[25]
Customer retention: remained above 95%, continuing a decade‑long trend. ^[26]

CEO Jeff Green highlighted ongoing momentum from the company’s Kokai platform, which aims to infuse AI into planning, bidding and measurement workflows, and reiterated strength in connected TV, retail media networks and the broader “open internet”. ^[27]

At the same time, a 24/7 Wall St. comparison with AppLovin underlined that The Trade Desk is no longer the fastest‑growing name in ad tech:

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue jumped 68%, while TTD grew 18%.
TTD’s operating income rose 49% to $161 million, but operating cash flow fell 18% year over year, and its cash balance declined sharply, suggesting heavier investment and some margin pressure. ^[28]

The company guided for at least $840 million in Q4 revenue, implying mid‑teens sequential growth, but the market interpreted the outlook as cautious, especially versus high‑growth peers. ^[29]

In conjunction with earnings, TTD’s board also authorised an additional $500 million share‑repurchase program after using the remaining $60 million of the prior program in October, a clear sign management views the stock as undervalued at current levels. ^[30]

Is The Trade Desk undervalued? Valuation models strongly disagree

Recent valuation work highlights just how polarising TTD has become.

Discounted‑cash‑flow vs. earnings multiples

A detailed Simply Wall St analysis applies a two‑stage discounted cash‑flow model to The Trade Desk’s free cash flow:

Their DCF suggests a fair value of about $81.63 per share, implying the stock trades at roughly a 52% discount to intrinsic value.
On this basis, they label the stock “undervalued” by about 51.8%. ^[31]

However, the same report flags that on a price‑to‑earnings basis, TTD still looks expensive:

Current P/E around 43x, versus a media‑industry average near 15x and a “fair” company‑specific multiple of about 26x, leading the model to mark TTD as overvalued on earnings. ^[32]

GuruFocus reaches a similar conclusion: valuation multiples are at the lower end of TTD’s own history but still rich versus many peers, even as revenue growth and profitability remain strong. ^[33]

“Cheapest in years” vs. still pricey

The widely cited MarketBeat/Finviz piece “The Trade Desk: After a 70% Plunge, This Could Be The Time to Buy” argues that:

The stock has fallen about 70% from last year’s highs, back to 2020 levels, even though revenue has more than tripled since then.
The P/E multiple has compressed from over 200x to roughly 60x, which the author frames as a much more reasonable entry point for a still‑premium franchise. ^[34]

That camp effectively says: “The worst‑case scenario is largely priced in.”
The opposing camp counters: “Even after a crash, TTD still trades at a premium that requires near‑flawless execution.”

What analysts expect: 12‑month targets point to big upside

Despite the drawdown, Wall Street’s base case remains broadly bullish, though far from unanimous.

Key snapshots from major data providers:

MarketBeat: 36 analysts over the last 12 months rate TTD a “Moderate Buy”, with 21 buys, 12 holds and 3 sells. Their compiled 12‑month target implies about 93% upside from current levels. ^[35]
StockAnalysis: 33 analysts assign a consensus “Buy” rating and an average price target of $82.39, implying roughly 106% upside; the range spans $47 to $145. ^[36]
TradingView / MarketWatch: both peg the average target around $62.68, with estimates from $34 to $98, and describe the consensus rating as Overweight/Buy. ^[37]
TipRanks: shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target near $64.53, or about 63% implied upside, with blogger sentiment largely bullish but recent hedge‑fund activity net‑negative. ^[38]
Public.com: reports that around 30 analysts currently rate TTD a “Buy”, reinforcing the pro‑growth sell‑side stance. ^[39]

A TIKR study published November 29 ties this together, noting that:

TTD trades “near $40,”
The average analyst price target is roughly $62, pointing to about 57% upside, with a target range of $34–$98, and
The rating mix includes numerous Buys and Outperforms but also a meaningful block of Holds and a handful of bearish calls. ^[40]

TIKR’s own Guided Valuation Model, using consensus earnings projections and a forward P/E around 20x, suggests TTD might trade closer to $44 per share by 2027, implying a more modest 10% total return from current levels if growth stays in the mid‑teens. ^[41]

Bottom line: Across traditional broker research, most 12‑month price targets cluster in the $60–$80 range, implying roughly 50–100% upside from today’s price – but with wide disagreement on how quickly growth and margins can re‑accelerate.

Long‑term and quant models: from moonshots to meltdowns

Beyond classic analyst work, several quantitative and AI‑driven services publish longer‑dated forecasts – and their views could not be more different.

Fintel projects TTD at about $64.93 by November 2026, implying roughly 65% upside, alongside forecasts for significant revenue and EPS growth into late 2026. ^[42]
Stockscan is dramatically more bullish, suggesting an average price near $276 in 2027 (almost +590% vs. $40.05), with even higher averages projected into 2028–2030. ^[43]
At the other extreme, CoinCodex’s algorithm expects TTD to fall to around $35–36 by early January 2026 (down about 12%), and sees a one‑year target near $22, implying a further ~45% decline. Its long‑term projection for 2030 is around $8, nearly 80% below current levels, and the service currently labels TTD “not a good stock to buy” based on its technical indicators. ^[44]

These automated forecasts rely heavily on historical price patterns and simple assumptions about volatility rather than deep fundamental modelling. They are useful as a sentiment barometer, but investors should treat them very cautiously.

The wide spread—from single‑digit prices to multi‑hundred‑dollar bull cases—underlines how uncertain the market is about TTD’s long‑term trajectory.

The bull vs. bear debate around TTD stock

Bringing together the latest news and research, the current TTD debate boils down to a few core themes.

Bull case highlights

Independent DSP leader: The Trade Desk remains one of the largest independent demand‑side platforms, positioned as the neutral alternative to walled gardens like Google and Meta. ^[45]
Structural tailwinds: Long‑term shifts toward programmatic advertising, connected TV, retail media networks and data‑driven buying continue to favour TTD’s open‑internet model. ^[46]
High customer stickiness: Customer retention above 95% for over a decade signals a sticky, high‑value platform. ^[47]
Data & identity moat: Deals like the Intuit SMB MediaLabs integration deepen TTD’s access to unique first‑party datasets, particularly in B2B, reinforcing its identity and targeting capabilities. ^[48]
Balance sheet & buybacks: Strong profitability, relatively low leverage and a new $500 million share‑repurchase authorization give management financial flexibility and signal confidence. ^[49]
Institutional conviction: Purchases by ARK Invest, Guggenheim and others reinforce the idea that sophisticated investors view the sell‑off as an opportunity rather than a structural break. ^[50]

Bear case concerns

Growth deceleration: Revenue growth has slowed to the high‑teens, while competitors like AppLovin post 60%+ revenue growth and much higher margins, raising concerns about TTD’s competitive position. ^[51]
Premium valuation: Even after a 70% drop, TTD trades at elevated earnings multiples versus peers and industry averages, leaving less margin for error if growth disappoints. ^[52]
Cash‑flow and margin pressure: Operating cash flow declined year over year in Q3, and heavy investment in the Kokai platform and infrastructure could weigh on margins in the near term. ^[53]
Macro‑sensitive end market: Advertising budgets are cyclical; a weaker global economy or slower consumer spending can quickly translate into softer ad spend across TTD’s platform. ^[54]
Competitive threats: Walled gardens, other DSPs and emerging AI‑native platforms continue to vie for digital ad dollars. 24/7 Wall St explicitly contrasts The Trade Desk’s open‑internet strategy with AppLovin’s integrated, AI‑heavy model, which currently delivers significantly higher growth and margins. ^[55]
Mixed ownership trends: While some funds are accumulating, overall hedge‑fund exposure has ticked down, and insiders have been small net sellers, signalling at least some caution. ^[56]

Other recent developments worth noting

A few additional items are on investors’ radar this week:

A Simply Wall St piece published December 5 concludes that TTD’s brutal 2025 slide—roughly 66% down year to date—may have created a long‑term opportunity, using a DCF model that implies more than 50% upside, even as its P/E‑based screen still tags the stock as expensive. ^[57]
A recent Delaware Court of Chancery opinion issued December 5 discusses The Trade Desk’s reincorporation as part of a shareholder dispute, but there is no clear evidence so far that the legal matter is materially affecting the company’s operations or valuation. ^[58]
Multiple news and research outlets – including Zacks, StockStory and Insider Monkey – have published post‑earnings recaps, generally highlighting solid execution amid softer guidance and the tension between The Trade Desk’s long‑term story and its near‑term growth slowdown. ^[59]

What to watch next

Looking ahead from December 6, 2025, several catalysts are likely to drive the next big move in TTD:

Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance
The company has guided to at least $840 million in Q4 revenue; whether it can beat that and provide a more upbeat 2026 outlook will be critical in determining whether the “reset” is nearly over or has further to run. ^[60]
Ad‑spend trends across connected TV and retail media
Any data suggesting faster re‑acceleration in programmatic CTV or stronger retail media budgets could support the bull case that TTD is still a prime beneficiary of long‑term ad‑tech tailwinds. ^[61]
Adoption of Intuit SMB MediaLabs on The Trade Desk
Watch for commentary from both Intuit and TTD about advertiser uptake, campaign performance and incremental spending tied to the SMB data partnership. This will help determine whether the deal is a meaningful revenue driver or more of a strategic nice‑to‑have. ^[62]
Institutional positioning
Future 13F filings and trading updates from ARK, large asset managers and hedge funds will show whether recent buying is the start of a broader accumulation phase—or just opportunistic trading into a volatile name. ^[63]

Final thoughts and disclaimer

As of December 6, 2025, The Trade Desk sits at the intersection of deep pessimism and renewed optimism:

The stock price reflects a massive de‑rating and concerns about slowing growth and fierce competition.
At the same time, fundamentals remain solid, institutional investors like ARK are buying aggressively, and new data partnerships (notably with Intuit SMB MediaLabs) strengthen the strategic narrative around TTD’s role in the open‑internet advertising ecosystem.

Whether the current levels ultimately prove to be a “generational buying opportunity” or just a value trap in a maturing segment will depend on how quickly The Trade Desk can re‑accelerate growth, convert its data and AI investments into higher margins, and maintain its edge against both walled gardens and newer, AI‑native rivals. ^[64]

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.