NVAX Stock Today: Can Novavax Turn Regulatory Turmoil and Activist Pressure into a Comeback?

Data and news current as of 7 December 2025.

NVAX stock price now: where Novavax stands in December 2025

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) closed on Friday, 5 December 2025 at $6.91 per share, giving the vaccine maker a market value of around $1.1 billion. ^[1]

Over the last year, NVAX has slipped roughly 20%, according to data from Investing.com and other market trackers. ^[2] That’s modest compared with its longer-term collapse: Simply Wall St calculates that Novavax shares are down about 94% over the past five years, even after a flurry of recent milestones. ^[3]

Key trading stats as of early December 2025:

Share price: ~$6.9–7.0
52‑week range:$5.01 – $11.55 ^[4]
1‑year performance: about –20% vs a strong gain for the S&P 500 ^[5]
Beta (5‑year monthly): ~2.3, highlighting high volatility ^[6]
Trailing P/E: roughly 3–3.3x, reflecting one-off profits and highly cyclical earnings ^[7]

Daily trading has been choppy. MarketWatch notes that NVAX fell 1.35% to $6.60 on 2 December, underperforming peers on a broadly positive day for U.S. indices, before bouncing 3.6% to $6.84 on 3 December. ^[8] The stock remains roughly 40–43% below its January 2025 high of $11.55. ^[9]

2025 in review: from surprise profit to fresh losses

Q2 2025: a milestone-driven profit

The turnaround story for NVAX really kicked in during Q2 2025:

Total Q2 2025 revenue: about $239 million, far ahead of consensus estimates around $150–160 million. ^[10]
The quarter was dominated by a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi triggered when the FDA granted full Biologics License Application (BLA) approval for Nuvaxovid, Novavax’s protein-based COVID‑19 vaccine. ^[11]
Multiple outlets report GAAP net income of roughly $106–107 million (about $0.62 per share), a sharp positive surprise versus expectations for a loss. ^[12]

Novavax also raised its 2025 adjusted revenue outlook to around $1.0–1.05 billion off the back of milestone income and cost reimbursements related to the Sanofi deal. ^[13]

Q3 2025: shrinking product sales, heavier losses

The picture in Q3 2025 was less flattering:

Total Q3 2025 revenue:$70 million, down from $85 million a year earlier. ^[14]
Product sales (where Novavax itself leads commercialization) collapsed to $13 million from $41 million, while Sanofi-related revenue rose to $48 million (up 33%) and licensing/royalty revenue climbed to $57 million. ^[15]
The company reported a net loss of about $202 million, wider than the $121 million loss a year earlier, largely due to $126 million in non-cash charges. ^[16]
Cost of sales fell sharply to $21 million (from $61 million), reflecting a leaner structure and the shift toward partner-led commercialisation. ^[17]

Despite the loss, Q3 showed meaningful de‑risking of the balance sheet and cost base:

An August 2025 convertible debt refinancing extended most 2027 notes to 2031 and added incremental proceeds, strengthening liquidity. ^[18]
A planned consolidation of Maryland facilities is expected to deliver about $60 million in cash and $230 million in cost savings over 11 years. ^[19]

Sanofi partnership: milestones over product sales

The Sanofi collaboration now dominates the Novavax investment story.

Key points:

Novavax has licensed Nuvaxovid rights to Sanofi in a deal worth up to $1.2 billion in milestones, plus royalties. ^[20]
By early Q4 2025, Novavax had earned $225 million in Sanofi milestones year-to-date, including $50 million tied to EU and U.S. marketing authorization transfers. ^[21]
On 4 November 2025, Novavax announced completion of the U.S. marketing authorization transfer for Nuvaxovid to Sanofi, triggering a $25 million milestone and leaving Sanofi fully responsible for U.S. commercial and regulatory activity. ^[22]

Under the updated label, Nuvaxovid in the U.S. is indicated for:

Adults 65+, and
Individuals 12–64 years old who have at least one underlying condition that puts them at high risk for severe COVID‑19. ^[23]

Sanofi has already reported positive Phase 1/2 immunogenicity and safety data for Nuvaxovid combined with its Fluzone High‑Dose and Flublok influenza vaccines; both programs hold FDA Fast Track status. ^[24]

Financially, the Q3 press release makes clear that Novavax is now heavily tilted toward a royalty-and-milestone model:

NVAX will receive high‑teens to low‑20s percent royalties on Sanofi’s Nuvaxovid sales. ^[25]
It is eligible for up to $350 million in Phase 3 and launch milestones on Sanofi’s COVID–influenza combination product and up to $200 million per additional Matrix‑M‑based vaccine, plus mid‑single‑digit royalties for 20 years. ^[26]

This pivot away from direct commercial operations helps explain why product sales are shrinking even while reported revenue and cash flow can spike when big milestones hit.

Regulatory turmoil: FDA vaccine memo rattles NVAX stock

The latest leg of volatility in NVAX has less to do with Novavax’s own data and more to do with U.S. vaccine policy politics.

In late November, an internal memo from Vinay Prasad, the FDA’s top vaccine official, suggested that COVID‑19 vaccines might have contributed to at least 10 child deaths due to heart inflammation between 2021 and 2024, and proposed much stricter standards for vaccine approvals, including randomized trials even for routine vaccines. ^[27]

The memo and its leaks led to:

A sell‑off in vaccine stocks: Moderna down 3.3%, Novavax down 2.3%, BioNTech down 1.4% on the day, according to Barron’s. ^[28]
A strong backlash from 12 former FDA commissioners, who in a New England Journal of Medicine article and subsequent media coverage called the proposed changes a sharp break from established, evidence‑based FDA practice and criticized Prasad’s claims as based on selective or incomplete data. ^[29]

This comes on top of broader shifts:

FDA and CDC guidelines for COVID boosters have narrowed recommended use toward older and high‑risk groups, while leaving more decisions to patient–physician “shared decision‑making”. ^[30]
Novavax itself has acknowledged that COVID vaccine prescriptions are down about 20% this season, blaming the decline partly on confusing new U.S. recommendations. ^[31]

For NVAX shareholders, this regulatory turbulence adds an extra layer of uncertainty:

A smaller overall booster market cuts the upside from Nuvaxovid.
Tougher approval standards for vaccines and combinations could lengthen timelines and raise trial costs for Novavax and its partners, even if such policies are ultimately revised or blocked.

At the same time, major public‑health organisations and clinical data still support COVID‑19 vaccination—especially for high‑risk groups—and the Nuvaxovid label itself is based on extensive safety and efficacy evidence. ^[32]

Pipeline update: beyond COVID‑19

The Q3 2025 update and Novavax’s own pipeline materials show the company trying to evolve from a single‑product COVID bet into a broader respiratory and adjuvant platform story. ^[33]

Highlights:

COVID–influenza combinations (with Sanofi)
- Sanofi’s early‑stage data for combinations of Nuvaxovid with Fluzone High‑Dose and Flublok look positive on immunogenicity and safety. ^[34]
- Both programs have Fast Track status from the FDA, positioning them as potential differentiated options for older adults who want both flu and COVID protection in a single shot. ^[35]
Pandemic influenza vaccine with BARDA backing
- In September, Sanofi received BARDA funding to develop a pandemic flu candidate using Novavax’s Matrix‑M adjuvant, potentially opening another high‑value royalty stream if the program succeeds. ^[36]
R21/Matrix‑M malaria vaccine
- The R21/Matrix‑M malaria shot, developed with the University of Oxford and Serum Institute of India, has already sold around 25 million doses since mid‑2024, according to Novavax. ^[37]
- The company earns royalties and demonstrates that Matrix‑M has real‑world utility beyond COVID.
Early‑stage pipeline (preclinical)
- Preclinical work continues on varicella‑zoster (shingles), Clostridioides difficile and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) combinations, along with exploration of Matrix‑M in oncology. ^[38]

None of these programs will rescue the 2025–26 COVID season, but they matter for investors thinking about post‑COVID optionality.

Guidance and long‑term outlook: profitability pushed to 2028

With Q3 results, Novavax updated its long‑term framework:

2025 adjusted revenue guidance: nudged up to $1.04–1.06 billion, excluding Sanofi sales and royalties. ^[39]
2026 adjusted revenue: forecast at $185–205 million, again excluding Sanofi royalties and supply sales. ^[40]
Profitability target:pushed back one year to 2028, as the company waits for full benefit from the Sanofi‑led COVID–flu combination and other Matrix‑M‑based products. ^[41]

This guidance underlines two realities:

Near‑term revenues are heavily front‑loaded into one‑off items (milestones, contract terminations, etc.).
Sustainable profits depend on a successful transition to a lean R&D‑and‑royalty model with robust uptake of combination vaccines and new Matrix‑M programs.

Activist pressure: Shah Capital pushes for a sale

Overlaying all of this is increasingly aggressive shareholder activism.

Shah Capital, Novavax’s second‑largest shareholder, now owns roughly 8.3% of the company after increasing its stake in late 2025. ^[42]
In letters to the board in October and November 2025, Shah Capital blasted what it calls “persistent underperformance”, weak marketing, and tiny COVID booster market share.
- The hedge fund estimates that Nuvaxovid has captured only about 0.8–1% of the U.S. 2025–26 COVID vaccine market so far, compared with more than 14 million doses for competitors. ^[43]
Shah is urging the board to explore a sale of Novavax, asserting a potential value of $5–10 billion, far above the current ~$1–1.2 billion market cap, and has warned it may launch a proxy fight if no action is taken. ^[44]

Novavax’s board has responded that it “firmly believes” continued execution of its current strategy is the best path, while staying open to other options that maximize shareholder value. ^[45]

For NVAX stock, activist pressure can cut both ways:

A credible sale process or strategic transaction could unlock value, especially if a larger pharma values Matrix‑M and the pipeline more highly than public markets do.
A prolonged fight, on the other hand, risks distracting management, increasing governance uncertainty and making it harder to secure long‑term partners.

Wall Street forecast: big upside on paper, but wildly different narratives

Analyst ratings and targets

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but the pattern is clear: high upside estimates with wide disagreement.

Recent snapshots:

GuruFocus, summarising brokerage estimates, reports an average 12‑month target price of about $13.9, with a range from $6 to $25 and an average rating around 2.7 on a 1–5 scale (≈ “Hold”) from nine firms. ^[46]
MarketBeat and StockAnalysis show broadly similar ranges, with consensus targets around $10–11—still 50–60% above the current share price. ^[47]
Barchart lists the stock as a “Moderate Buy” based on 10 analyst recommendations. ^[48]
Yahoo Finance’s blended one‑year target estimate sits even higher, around $12.8 per share. ^[49]

Individual calls underscore how divided the street is:

B. Riley Securities: reiterates “Buy”, trims target from $18 to $16 (still implying substantial upside). ^[50]
Cantor Fitzgerald: initiated “Overweight” with an $18 target in October. ^[51]
HC Wainwright: “Buy”, recently raising its target from $10 to $11. ^[52]
Bank of America: “Underperform/Sell”, with a target cut from $9 to $7. ^[53]
TD Cowen: “Hold”, trimming its target from $8 to $7. ^[54]
J.P. Morgan: lowers target to $6 and maintains an “Underweight” stance in November. ^[55]

Valuation: cheap, expensive, or both?

Valuation models are equally conflicted:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis by Simply Wall St estimates intrinsic value at about $4.60 per share, implying NVAX is roughly 49% overvalued at recent prices. ^[56]
The same piece notes NVAX trades at a P/E of ~3.3x, far below both the biotech sector average (~19x) and a “fair” company‑specific multiple of about 8.5x—which would instead make the stock look materially undervalued on a relative earnings basis. ^[57]
GuruFocus’s proprietary “GF Value” metric pegs fair value much lower, around $3.34, implying more than 50% downside from roughly $7. ^[58]

In other words, your view of NVAX depends heavily on which story you believe:

If you think milestone‑driven revenue and future royalties are sustainable, low multiples may look attractive.
If you believe COVID revenues will fade faster than new programs ramp, then one‑off profits may mask a structurally weaker business, and lower fair values might be more realistic.

Lobbying and policy engagement

Quiver Quantitative’s tracking of public filings shows that Novavax continues to lobby around vaccine policy:

About $30,000 in federal lobbying spend in Q4 2025 so far, following larger amounts earlier in the year. ^[59]
Cumulative lobbying relating to vaccine policy and public‑health recommendations has been significant in recent years, reflecting how central U.S. regulation is to Novavax’s prospects.

While lobbying isn’t unusual in pharma, investors should note how politicised the vaccine environment has become under the current U.S. administration—something that can swing sentiment toward companies like Novavax independent of their clinical data.

Key bullish and bearish arguments for NVAX stock

Bull case: what optimists are watching

Differentiated product: Nuvaxovid is currently the only FDA‑approved protein‑based, non‑mRNA COVID‑19 vaccine in the U.S., appealing to patients who prefer a more traditional platform. ^[60]
Deep-pocketed partner: Sanofi takes on most of the commercial and regulatory burden, while Novavax participates via milestones and royalties, a structurally higher‑margin model if volumes hold. ^[61]
Matrix‑M as a platform: From R21 malaria to pandemic flu and potential oncology and RSV uses, Matrix‑M is being tested across multiple indications and partners, giving Novavax leveraged upside if it becomes a go‑to adjuvant. ^[62]
Cost discipline and balance sheet repair: Debt refinancing to 2031, facility consolidation and a leaner cost base give NVAX more runway to reach the newly delayed 2028 profitability goal. ^[63]
Potential strategic sale: Activist pressure could force the board to explore a sale or large‑scale partnership, possibly at a premium to the current share price if big pharma buyers value Matrix‑M and combo‑vaccine optionality. ^[64]

Bear case: why skeptics remain wary

Shrinking COVID booster market: Even Novavax acknowledges double‑digit declines in COVID prescriptions, and U.S. recommendations have narrowed boosting to high‑risk groups—limiting Nuvaxovid’s addressable market. ^[65]
Heavy reliance on milestones: Q2’s profit hinged on a single $175 million payment; without periodic deals, revenues could drop sharply until combination products are fully commercialised. ^[66]
Persistent operating losses: Despite milestone windfalls, Novavax still posted a $202 million net loss in Q3, and management now targets profitability only in 2028, leaving several more years of execution risk. ^[67]
Execution and governance concerns: Shah Capital’s letters reflect broader investor frustration with marketing missteps, low market share, and capital‑markets decisions. A messy proxy fight could weigh on the stock. ^[68]
Regulatory headwinds: If stricter vaccine standards gain traction—despite criticism from former FDA chiefs—the cost and time to market for new vaccines could rise, hitting smaller players like Novavax hardest. ^[69]

Bottom line: NVAX stock on 7 December 2025

As of 7 December 2025, NVAX sits at a crossroads:

The stock price embeds deep pessimism after a multi‑year collapse and a year‑on‑year decline of around 20%. ^[70]
The business model is mid‑transition: from a high‑burn commercial operation to a leaner, partner‑driven R&D organisation that lives off milestones and royalties.
Policy risk and activism are unusually high, adding moving parts that go well beyond standard biotech trial risk.
Yet Wall Street’s median projections still imply substantial upside if Novavax hits its long‑term revenue and profit goals and if combination vaccines and Matrix‑M partnerships scale as hoped. ^[71]

For investors following NVAX, the next 12–24 months will likely hinge on:

Actual Nuvaxovid uptake in the 2025–26 and 2026–27 seasons under Sanofi’s leadership.
Clinical and regulatory progress for COVID–flu combination shots and other Matrix‑M programs.
How the activist campaign by Shah Capital plays out—board concessions, strategic review, or full‑blown proxy contest.
Whether the current FDA and CDC vaccine policy shifts harden into a long‑term framework or are moderated under pressure from the medical and scientific community.

NVAX today is not a dull, steady compounder; it’s a high‑beta bet on whether a small vaccine developer can leverage a single proven technology platform and a powerful partner into a durable royalty machine, all while navigating one of the most politicised regulatory environments in healthcare.