RXRX Stock Today: Insider Selling, CEO Transition and Trial Catalyst Shape Recursion Pharmaceuticals’ Outlook (December 2025)

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RXRX), one of the highest‑profile AI‑driven drug discovery names, is back under the microscope. As of the December 5, 2025 close, RXRX stock traded around $4.71, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $2.5 billion and placing shares close to the bottom of their 52‑week range between about $3.79 and $12.36. ^[1]

Shares are down roughly 35% in 2025 and have fallen about 88% from their record highs, underscoring how brutal the reset has been for speculative AI/biotech names after the initial hype wave. ^[2] Yet the story is far from over. In early December 2025, three developments are dominating the narrative around RXRX stock:

Fresh insider selling by both the CEO and a co‑founder
An imminent clinical data webinar for lead rare‑disease asset REC‑4881 on December 8
A planned CEO transition to Najat Khan on January 1, 2026

Layered on top of these headlines are Recursion’s latest quarterly results, an overhauled pipeline following its Exscientia merger, and sharply divided opinions from Wall Street, quant models, and financial media.

This article walks through the latest RXRX stock news, forecasts, and analyses as of December 7, 2025, and puts them in context for investors tracking AI drug discovery.

RXRX stock snapshot as of December 7, 2025

Key trading and financial metrics:

Share price: ~$4.71 (Dec 5 close) ^[3]
Market cap: ~$2.46 billion ^[4]
52‑week range: ~$3.79 – $12.36 ^[5]
Daily volume (Dec 5): ~17.1 million shares ^[6]
Trailing 12‑month revenue: ~$43.7 million
Trailing 12‑month net loss: about $715 million
Trailing EPS: about –$1.78 per share ^[7]

Over the past three years, RXRX’s performance has been whiplash‑inducing: up about 30.6% in 2023, then down 31.5% in 2024, and down 34.7% so far in 2025. ^[8] This is very much a high‑beta, story‑driven stock whose valuation is tied to future platform success rather than current cash flows.

New RXRX stock news: insider selling and a December 8 data catalyst

1. CEO and co‑founder sell shares

In early December, Recursion disclosed two notable insider transactions:

Director and co‑founder Blake Borgeson sold 220,000 shares on December 2, 2025 at an average price of $4.37, for proceeds of about $961,400. After the sale, he still owned roughly 6.87 million shares, a reduction of only about 3.1% of his position. ^[9]
Co‑founder and CEO Christopher Gibson sold 40,000 Class A shares on December 4, 2025 at about $4.63, totaling $185,200. The trade was executed under a Rule 10b5‑1 pre‑arranged trading plan. On the same day he converted 60,000 Class B shares into Class A and gifted an additional 20,000 Class A shares. Post‑transaction, Gibson still directly owns around 933,839 shares, plus indirect holdings through several entities and a family trust. ^[10]

Insider selling often makes headlines, but context matters. Both insiders remain large shareholders, and Gibson’s sale was scripted via a trading plan commonly used for diversification and liquidity. Still, the combination of a sliding share price, heavy recent volatility, and visible insider selling has added to short‑term pressure on RXRX stock sentiment.

2. Share registration tied to Tempus AI

The same Investing.com report highlighted another detail: Recursion recently registered 7.1 million shares for resale by Tempus AI, which had received those shares as annual license‑fee payment under a broader master agreement. ^[11]

The registration itself doesn’t create new dilution (the shares were already issued), but it does enable Tempus to sell into the market, which can act as an overhang in the near term if demand for RXRX stock is weak.

3. December 8, 2025: REC‑4881 TUPELO data webinar

The most important near‑term catalyst is clinical:

On December 1, 2025, Recursion announced it will host a webinar on December 8 to share new data from the TUPELO Phase 1b/2 trial of REC‑4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). ^[12]
The event will be streamed on the company’s X, LinkedIn and YouTube channels, underlining that this is a public, investor‑facing milestone. ^[13]

According to Recursion’s pipeline disclosures, REC‑4881 is an orally available allosteric MEK1/2 inhibitor designed to reduce polyp burden and delay progression to adenocarcinoma in patients with FAP, a rare inherited cancer‑predisposition syndrome with no approved therapies. The program holds Fast Track and U.S./EU orphan‑drug designations and is currently in Phase 2. ^[14]

Zacks noted that Recursion shared preliminary TUPELO data in May 2025, with additional data expected in December. ^[15] This week’s readout is therefore seen as a key proof‑of‑concept moment for the company’s refocused rare‑disease strategy. Strong signals on safety and efficacy could support the bull case for RXRX; underwhelming data would likely reinforce skepticism around AI‑designed pipelines.

Q3 2025 results: revenue reset, R&D surge and cash runway

Recursion reported third‑quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025:

EPS: loss of $0.36 per share, slightly better than the consensus loss of $0.38, but worse than the $0.34 loss in the year‑ago period. ^[16]
Revenue: about $5.2 million, down sharply year‑over‑year and far below analyst expectations ranging from about $17–19 million. ^[17]
Year‑over‑year revenue decline: roughly 80%, largely because the prior‑year quarter benefited from partial recognition of a $30 million milestone payment from Roche. ^[18]
R&D expenses: about $121.1 million, up 62% versus the prior year, driven in part by the acquisition of full rights to REC‑102 and integration of Exscientia’s R&D footprint. ^[19]
G&A expenses: about $41.6 million, up 10% year‑over‑year. ^[20]
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash: about $667 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $533.8 million at June 30. Management reiterated that current cash is expected to fund operations through the end of 2027 under its existing plan. ^[21]

MarketBeat’s earnings summary similarly highlights a trailing net loss of roughly $463.7 million and a last‑four‑quarters EPS of about –$1.80 per share, with consensus expecting losses to narrow from –$1.57 to –$1.42 next year. ^[22]

In plain terms, Q3 2025 confirms that Recursion is still deep in the “build the platform” phase:

Revenues are small and lumpy, depending heavily on milestone and collaboration payments from Roche, Sanofi, Bayer and Merck KGaA. ^[23]
Operating expenses are very high, especially in R&D, as the company pushes multiple programs through early‑stage oncology and rare‑disease trials. ^[24]
The cash runway into 2027 buys time, but the scale of the burn rate means execution risk remains significant. ^[25]

Pipeline after the Exscientia merger: leaner, oncology‑ and rare‑disease‑focused

Recursion’s current shape can’t be understood without the Exscientia merger.

In November 2024, Recursion completed its business combination with Exscientia, creating a vertically integrated AI‑enabled drug discovery company with more than ten clinical and preclinical programs, roughly ten advanced discovery programs and over ten partnered programs. ^[26]
The combined group reported about $850 million in cash at mid‑2024, with anticipated ~$100 million in annual cost synergies and a cash runway extending into 2027. ^[27]

Several months after the merger, Recursion streamlined its pipeline:

In May 2025, the company discontinued REC‑994, REC‑2282 and REC‑3964, which were being developed for cerebral cavernous malformation, neurofibromatosis type II and C. difficile infection, respectively. ^[28]
Management said it would move forward with six core development projects, focusing on oncology and rare diseases where they see the highest impact and best fit for the AI platform. ^[29]

As of late 2025, Recursion’s published pipeline highlights: ^[30]

REC‑617 – CDK7 inhibitor for advanced solid tumors (Phase 1/2)
REC‑1245 – RBM39 degrader for biomarker‑enriched solid tumors and lymphoma (Phase 1)
REC‑3565 – MALT1 inhibitor for B‑cell malignancies (Phase 1)
REC‑4539 – LSD1 inhibitor for small‑cell lung cancer (on “strategic pause”)
REC‑7735 – PI3Kα H1047R‑selective inhibitor for HR+ breast cancer (candidate profiling)
REC‑4881 – MEK1/2 inhibitor for familial adenomatous polyposis (Phase 2; upcoming TUPELO data)
REC‑102 – ENPP1 inhibitor for hypophosphatasia (preclinical / candidate profiling)

This pivot away from some of the earliest programs and toward a more concentrated set of oncology and rare‑disease assets is consistent with trends across AI‑driven biotech: fewer, higher‑conviction bets backed by a platform rather than a sprawling early‑stage portfolio.

Leadership change: Najat Khan to become CEO in 2026

On November 5, 2025, Recursion announced a planned leadership transition: ^[31]

Co‑founder and current CEO Chris Gibson will move into the role of Chairman of the Board and serve as an executive advisor.
Najat Khan, Ph.D., currently Chief R&D and Commercial Officer and a board member, will become Chief Executive Officer and President effective January 1, 2026.

The board unanimously approved the transition, framing it as the right next step for Recursion’s “next phase of growth” as it evolves its Recursion OS platform and advances its clinical pipeline. ^[32]

For RXRX stock, the implications are two‑fold:

Continuity: Khan has been central to both R&D strategy and commercial thinking, and Gibson remains deeply involved as chairman.
Execution risk: Any CEO change at a high‑burn, high‑complexity tech‑bio company introduces uncertainty. Investors will watch early 2026 closely for signals on spending discipline, pipeline prioritization, and partnership strategy under the new leadership.

How analysts, media and models see RXRX stock now

Sell‑side analyst forecasts and ratings

Despite the volatility, most traditional Wall Street analysts still see upside from current levels:

StockAnalysis & Public.com: About 4 analysts rate RXRX a “Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target around $7.25, implying roughly 50–55% upside from ~$4.71. ^[33]
TipRanks: Aggregating 3 analysts over the past three months, TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price target of $8.00, about 70% above the latest price. ^[34]
TradingView: Compiling 6 price targets, TradingView reports a consensus target of $6.33, with a range from $3 to $10, and an overall rating that tilts toward “buy” even though many individual ratings are neutral. ^[35]
QuiverQuant: Recent notes highlight a $8 target from Needham (Buy, September 11, 2025) and a $5 target from Morgan Stanley (July 3, 2025), producing a median target of $6.50. ^[36]
TIKR: A September 2025 fundamental deep‑dive characterizes RXRX as about 33% undervalued based on consensus targets, with an average price objective of $6.47 and an overall “Hold” rating. The report emphasizes validation of Recursion’s “Virtual Cell” platform and partnership milestones as key catalysts. ^[37]
Zacks: Recursion currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral stance despite the long‑term potential of the AI platform. ^[38]

The broad takeaway: most analysts see meaningful upside in RXRX stock over the next 12 months, but their ratings skew toward Hold or Moderate Buy, acknowledging substantial execution and financing risk.

Quant & technical models

Not all models are optimistic.

Intellectia AI, which uses pattern‑matching, technical indicators and seasonality, currently labels RXRX a “Strong Sell”, citing multiple bearish technical signals and a weak near‑term trend. Even so, its 1‑month statistical forecast from November 30 calls for a modest +2.13% move to about $4.73. ^[39]
The same platform notes RXRX’s annual performance as +30.6% in 2023, –31.5% in 2024 and –34.7% in 2025, reinforcing the stock’s high volatility profile. ^[40]

In short, fundamental analysts generally focus on multi‑year upside if the platform works, while quant/technical models are skeptical about the near‑term trend.

Media and investor‑sentiment signals

Media coverage underscores how polarizing RXRX has become:

On CNBC’s Mad Money lightning round, Jim Cramer recently called Recursion “horrendous” and said he doesn’t like to recommend such stocks, a comment picked up by Benzinga and reflected in StockAnalysis’ news feed. ^[41]
Multiple Motley Fool articles present a more constructive view, asking whether Recursion could be the “next big AI stock,” a “millionaire maker,” or a “hidden‑gem AI name”, while repeatedly stressing its high‑risk nature and the lack of late‑stage clinical or commercial validation. ^[42]
Benzinga has highlighted Recursion among heavily shorted stocks and noted days when RXRX rallied sharply “without obvious news,” a sign of how sentiment and positioning can dominate trading. ^[43]

The result is a classic battleground stock: bulls point to data moats and partnerships; bears focus on cash burn and an unproven business model.

The bigger context: AI drug discovery is still early

Recursion sits at the intersection of two difficult domains: drug development and cutting‑edge AI. Recent reporting underscores how experimental this space still is:

A Reuters piece in September 2025 noted that the FDA is encouraging non‑animal testing methods, including AI models, and highlighted Recursion’s platform as an example: it helped move a cancer drug candidate into clinical testing in about 18 months, versus an industry average of roughly 42 months. ^[44]
A widely read WIRED feature, “Where Are All the AI Drugs?”, observed that no AI‑designed drug has yet reached the market and that most candidates remain in early‑ or mid‑stage trials, including programs from Recursion. ^[45]
A Financial Times analysis recently described AI drug discovery as having gone through a hype cycle, with companies like Exscientia and BenevolentAI seeing valuations fall sharply when early expectations proved unrealistic, even as newer entrants such as Isomorphic Labs push forward with larger datasets and more robust models. ^[46]

Recursion’s own messaging emphasizes scale and integration:

The company says it has built one of the largest fit‑for‑purpose biological and chemical datasets in the world, totaling around 65 petabytes of phenotypic, omic and patient‑level data, feeding into its Recursion Operating System. ^[47]
It worked with Nvidia to build BioHive‑2, which it describes as biopharma’s most powerful supercomputer, dedicated to training models on its proprietary data. ^[48]

In that sense, RXRX stock is less about today’s earnings and more about whether big‑scale AI applied to proprietary biology actually produces better drugs on faster timelines. That’s a huge opportunity—and a very uncertain one.

Bull vs. bear case for RXRX stock

Bull case drivers

Supporters of RXRX stock typically emphasize:

Platform and data moat
- The combination of Recursion’s phenomics database, Exscientia’s chemistry capabilities, and BioHive‑2 compute infrastructure gives the company a large, hard‑to‑replicate data and model advantage. ^[49]
High‑value partnerships and validation
- Major pharma partners including Roche, Sanofi, Bayer and Merck KGaA have committed hundreds of millions of dollars in upfronts and milestones, suggesting real belief in the platform’s potential. ^[50]
Focused pipeline with potential first‑ or best‑in‑class assets
- Programs like REC‑4881 (FAP) and REC‑617 / REC‑1245 / REC‑3565 in oncology target high‑unmet‑need indications, some with orphan‑drug and Fast Track designations that can improve economics if successful. ^[51]
Cash runway and potential operating leverage
- With around $667 million in cash and runway into 2027, Recursion has time to deliver pivotal data and partnership milestones without immediate recourse to dilutive emergency financing, especially if it hits its cost‑synergy and milestone targets. ^[52]
Valuation vs. consensus targets
- Multiple independent sources (StockAnalysis, Public.com, TipRanks, TIKR) show RXRX trading materially below average analyst price targets, with modeled upside often in the 50–70% range over 12 months. ^[53]

From this vantage point, RXRX is a leveraged bet on AI industrializing drug discovery, backed by brand‑name partners and a significant data/computing moat.

Bear case risks

Skeptics focus on an equally long list of concerns:

No approved products and heavy cash burn
- Recursion generated only $5.2 million in Q3 revenue against > $160 million in quarterly operating expenses and a trailing net loss over $460 million—and that’s after earlier cost‑cut efforts. ^[54]
Pipeline attrition and clinical risk
- The company has already terminated three advanced programs (REC‑994, REC‑2282, REC‑3964), illustrating how quickly clinical bets can go to zero, even when backed by sophisticated AI. ^[55]
Technology and sector risk
- As WIRED and the FT both point out, AI‑designed drugs have yet to produce a commercial success, and investors have been burned before by optimistic timelines. ^[56]
Competitive landscape
- Rivals such as Schrödinger, Valo Health, Nabla Bio and newer entrants backed by Big Tech and Big Pharma are all racing to build their own platforms, while large pharma companies continue to expand internal AI capabilities. ^[57]
Dilution and overhang
- The registration of shares for Tempus AI, ongoing share‑based compensation, and potential future capital raises mean that existing shareholders face continued dilution risk, especially if the stock remains weak. ^[58]
Short‑term technical weakness
- Quant platforms like Intellectia classify RXRX as a strong technical sell, citing multiple bearish indicators and a multi‑year pattern of drawdowns. ^[59]

Put together, the bear thesis views RXRX as a cash‑intensive science project whose timeline may be too long for public markets, especially if clinical data or partner enthusiasm disappoint.

Key upcoming catalysts for RXRX stock

Investors watching RXRX in the coming months are likely to focus on:

December 8, 2025 – REC‑4881 TUPELO data webinar
- First major update since preliminary May data; could reshape expectations for the rare‑disease franchise and validate or challenge the AI‑driven design story. ^[60]
January 1, 2026 – CEO transition to Najat Khan
- Early commentary around R&D focus, partnership strategy and spending discipline under the new CEO will be closely scrutinized. ^[61]
Further 2025–2026 data readouts
- Zacks and company materials point to upcoming data for REC‑1245 (DAHLIA study) in the first half of 2026 and additional early‑stage oncology readouts for REC‑617 and REC‑3565 in late 2025/early 2027. ^[62]
Progress on REC‑102 and other preclinical assets
- REC‑102, acquired through a deal with Rallybio, is expected to enter Phase 1 trials for hypophosphatasia by late 2026, offering another potential orphan‑disease value driver. ^[63]
New or expanded partnerships and milestones
- Additional milestones from Roche, Sanofi, Bayer, Merck or new collaborators would help validate the platform economically as well as scientifically. ^[64]
Sector‑level shifts in AI drug discovery and regulation
- Moves by the FDA to further embrace AI‑based alternatives to animal testing, and the performance of peers in clinical trials, will influence sentiment across the entire AI‑drug‑discovery cohort. ^[65]

Bottom line: RXRX stock as of December 7, 2025

As of early December 2025, RXRX stock sits at a crossroads:

The company has significant cash, a large and proprietary data asset, deep AI infrastructure, and a pipeline refocused on oncology and rare diseases.
It also has no approved drugs, very small current revenue, heavy cash burn, and a history of pipeline cuts that underline how experimental its approach remains.

Analysts broadly see substantial upside from today’s price, but they label the stock “Hold” or “Moderate Buy” to reflect that potential rewards come with elevated risk. Quantitative and technical models are more cautious, often flagging RXRX as a short‑term underperformer.

For investors and traders, RXRX is best understood as a speculative, long‑duration bet on AI‑enabled drug discovery rather than a traditional earnings story. The December 8 REC‑4881 data, the early‑2026 leadership transition, and subsequent pipeline readouts will go a long way toward determining whether Recursion’s ambitious TechBio vision translates into durable value—or remains an expensive experiment.