CMG Stock: Can Chipotle’s Holiday Freebies Turn a Brutal 2025 Into a 2026 Comeback?

Published: December 7, 2025

Key Takeaways

CMG stock (Chipotle Mexican Grill, NYSE: CMG) trades around $34, down roughly 35% over the last six months and more than 40% year‑to‑date, putting it among 2025’s worst S&P 500 performers. ^[1]
Q3 2025 showed 7.5% revenue growth to about $3.0 billion, but comparable sales barely grew (+0.3%) and operating margin fell from 16.9% to 15.9% as higher labor and input costs squeezed profits. ^[2]
Management has cut 2025 sales guidance for the third time, now expecting full‑year comparable sales to decline in the low single digits, with Q4 comps also guided down and 2026 margin pressure flagged. ^[3]
Despite the gloom, 36 Wall Street analysts still rate CMG a “Moderate Buy” with an average 12‑month target of $49.81 (range $34–$73), implying about 47% upside from here. ^[4]
Chipotle is leaning on value‑heavy holiday promos (“Unwrap Extra”), slower, phased price hikes, aggressive store openings and share buybacks to reset the story going into 2026. ^[5]

There are two “CMG” tickers in the wild: Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) and Computer Modelling Group (TSX: CMG). This article focuses on Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Where CMG Stock Stands Today

As of the latest close, CMG trades around $33.94 per share, giving Chipotle a market cap of roughly $52.5 billion and a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 34x based on trailing earnings of about $1.15 per share. ^[6]

That premium multiple sits well above the restaurant sector median (roughly 23–24x), a gap highlighted by Trefis in its recent work on the stock’s valuation. ^[7]

The bigger story, though, is the drawdown:

Six‑month performance: CMG is down about 34.6% over the last six months, well below the broader restaurant industry. ^[8]
Year‑to‑date: Several outlets peg the YTD drop at roughly 40–45%, putting Chipotle among 2025’s worst S&P 500 performers. ^[9]

Trefis notes that the stock is now trading in a technical “support zone” between about $32.23 and $35.63, a band that has historically preceded strong rallies: in the past decade, bounces off similar levels produced average peak gains of roughly 45%. ^[10]

So from a pure market perspective, CMG looks like a classic “great business, suddenly hated stock” setup: high quality metrics, high uncertainty, and a valuation that’s still not exactly cheap.

Fundamentals Check: What Q3 2025 Revealed

The latest hard data on Chipotle comes from its third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 29.

Q3 2025 by the numbers

Chipotle’s Q3 looked like this: ^[11]

Revenue:
- $3.0 billion, up 7.5% year‑on‑year, driven mainly by new restaurant openings.
Comparable restaurant sales:
- +0.3% overall.
- This came from roughly +1.1% in average check (pricing/mix) offset by ‑0.8% in traffic.
Digital sales:
- About 36.7% of food and beverage revenue, keeping Chipotle firmly in the “digital heavyweight” camp.
Margins:
- Operating margin: down from 16.9% to 15.9%.
- Restaurant‑level margin: slipped from 25.5% to 24.5%.
- Food, beverage and packaging costs: fell to 30.0% of revenue (from 30.6%), thanks to prior menu price hikes and efficiencies, but this improvement was eaten up by wage inflation and weaker sales leverage.
Earnings:
- GAAP diluted EPS of about $0.29, slightly up from last year’s $0.28 (or 7.4% growth on an adjusted basis).

So revenue is still moving up at a healthy mid‑single‑digit pace — but the incremental dollar of sales is less profitable than it used to be, and it’s increasingly coming from new stores rather than stronger traffic at existing ones.

Guidance reset: lower comps, more pressure

The real gut‑punch for the stock didn’t come from Q3 itself so much as from guidance and tone:

Management now expects full‑year 2025 comparable restaurant sales to DECLINE in the low single digits, versus a prior outlook of roughly flat. ^[12]
Q4 2025 comps are guided to fall in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range, adding to the narrative that higher prices have pushed some diners — especially younger and lower‑income guests — to eat at home more often. ^[13]
The company still plans 315–345 new restaurants in 2025, with over 80% featuring a Chipotlane drive‑thru pick‑up lane, signaling that the growth engine is very much on even as near‑term demand cools. ^[14]
Looking to 2026, management warned of margin headwinds from higher beef costs and newly enacted tariffs, and noted that pricing alone is unlikely to fully offset those pressures. ^[15]

Reuters and other outlets pointed out that this was the third sales forecast cut in 2025, a big psychological blow for a company long treated as a near‑bulletproof growth story. ^[16]

Add it up and you get the core of today’s bear case: decelerating comps, shrinking margins, and guidance moving down just as the multiple was sky‑high.

December 2025 Headlines CMG Investors Need to Know

Even after Q3, Chipotle has kept the newsfire hose open. As of December 7, 2025, several fresh developments are shaping the CMG story.

1. “Unwrap Extra”: a month‑long holiday BOGO blitz

On December 1, Chipotle kicked off “Unwrap Extra”, a holiday promotion built around buy‑one‑get‑one (BOGO) entrée offers on the first three Saturdays in December: ^[17]

Saturday, Dec 6: Tacos BOGO — buy a three‑taco entrée, get another entrée free.
Saturday, Dec 13: Burrito BOGO.
Saturday, Dec 20: “Extra Sweater Day” — wear your most over‑the‑top sweater in‑restaurant and get a BOGO entrée.
The offers run 4 p.m. to close, with up to five free entrées per check under specific conditions.
Rewards members are also getting surprise digital perks (free chips, guac, drinks, double protein), and customers can round up their checks in the app or online to support No Kid Hungry between December 3 and 22.

Media coverage from Newsweek, Delish, People and others has framed Unwrap Extra as both a value play for stretched diners and a loyalty push to deepen engagement with Chipotle’s digital ecosystem. ^[18]

For investors, the key question is whether higher traffic and stronger brand goodwill from these promos can offset the margin pressure from essentially giving away a lot of food in a period Chipotle already described as challenging.

2. BÉIS x Chipotle: The To Go Collection

On December 4, Chipotle announced a quirky partnership with travel brand BÉIS, launching “The To Go Collection,” an 11‑piece travel capsule inspired by Chipotle’s packaging and takeout habits. ^[19]

The collection includes:

Luggage (“Chipotle Rollers”)
A “Take Out Tote”
A Burrito Holder Sling
A Guac Cup Bag Charm

Mainstream coverage has ranged from amused to mildly bewildered, with some calling it a “bizarre, head‑scratching” collab and others seeing it as a clever way to maintain cultural relevance and social buzz in the holiday season.

Financially, this is small potatoes (or small guac), but it underlines the strength and flexibility of the Chipotle brand, which remains a real asset even as near‑term sales wobble.

3. New board member: Josh Weinstein joins

On November 25, Chipotle added Josh Weinstein — CEO of cruise giant Carnival Corporation — to its board of directors, expanding the board to ten members. ^[20]

Weinstein brings:

Deep experience in global hospitality,
Large‑scale operations and logistics, and
Navigating consumer‑facing businesses through cyclical and reputational shocks.

Analysts have interpreted the move as incremental but positive: Chipotle is shoring up strategic oversight precisely when its growth story is transitioning from “unstoppable” to “needs finesse.”

4. Store openings: the expansion engine keeps humming

Chipotle’s newsroom continues to read like a road trip itinerary. For the week of December 1, the company opened 11 new restaurants, including its first location in Georgetown, Kentucky, featuring a Chipotlane. ^[21]

This follows a string of prior weeks where the chain opened 9–12 restaurants at a time across the U.S. and Canada, consistent with its goal of more than 300 new units in 2025 and an even larger pipeline into 2026. ^[22]

In other words: the physical footprint is still compounding, even as same‑store sales flatten.

5. Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings date set

On December 2, Chipotle announced it will report Q4 and full‑year 2025 results on February 3, 2026, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. ^[23]

That call is now circled in red on many investors’ calendars: it will be the first chance to see how the holiday promos actually landed, what Q4 comps really did, and how management is thinking about 2026 guidance after a year full of downgrades.

6. A big hedge fund just piled in

In a filing highlighted December 6, Marshall Wace LLP — a major global hedge fund — disclosed a 2,705% increase in its CMG holdings in Q2, to roughly 2.13 million shares, or about 0.16% of the company, worth around $119 million at the time of filing. ^[24]

It’s a single data point, but it signals that some sophisticated investors view CMG at these levels as a mispriced long‑term asset rather than a value trap.

What Do the Latest CMG Stock Forecasts Say?

Despite a bruising year, Wall Street hasn’t abandoned Chipotle. The tone has shifted from “unquestioned star” to “controversial comeback play,” but the numbers are still striking.

Street consensus: Moderate Buy with ~47% upside

MarketBeat, aggregating 36 analyst ratings, shows: ^[25]

Consensus rating:Moderate Buy
- 2 Strong Buy
- 22 Buy
- 11 Hold
- 1 Sell
12‑month consensus price target:$49.81
- High: $73
- Low: $34
- Implied upside from ~$33.94: about 46.75%

So even after a wave of post‑Q3 target cuts — many banks pulled numbers down into the $35–$50 range in late October — the average target still sits roughly 40–50% above today’s price. ^[26]

Barron’s: One of 2025’s “worst stocks” — and a potential turnaround

Barron’s recently lumped Chipotle into a list of the 12 worst‑performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025, yet flagged it as one of the few with strong analyst backing and credible upside. ^[27]

Key points from that piece:

The laggards on the list were down around 50% on average, and CMG was in that painful neighborhood.
Even so, about 73% of analyst ratings on Chipotle are Buys, and earnings are still projected to grow in both 2025 and 2026.
Barron’s suggested roughly 25% upside based on about 30x 2027 earnings, framing CMG as a “diamond in the rough” among 2025’s losers.

So one of the more skeptical mainstream outlets still sees room for a comeback if Chipotle executes.

Valuation models: fair value in the mid‑40s to high‑40s

Several independent models converge on a similar ballpark:

Simply Wall St’s AnalystConsensusTarget tool recently cut its fair value estimate from $45.09 to $43.18, still implying the stock is roughly 20–25% undervalued at current levels. Their 2028 scenario involves revenue around $16 billion and earnings a bit above $2 billion, with a future P/E near 33x. ^[28]
Another Simply Wall St narrative pegs fair value around $45+ and projects double‑digit annual revenue growth and net margins in the low‑teens, helped by international expansion and tech investments. ^[29]
A 24/7 Wall St forecast piece and a Tikr research note both land in the mid‑40s to high‑40s as plausible 2–3‑year targets, with one Tikr scenario suggesting CMG could reasonably reach about $47 by December 2027, a mid‑30s total return from recent prices. ^[30]

Broadly, these models treat CMG as a still‑premium franchise that has been repriced lower, not fundamentally broken.

The bears: customer pushback and valuation hangover

Of course, not everyone is cheerful:

Zacks recently ran “CMG Stock Down 35% in 6 Months: Buy the Dip or Brace for More Pain?” and keeps Chipotle at a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), flagging weakening traffic, margin compression and consumer price sensitivity as reasons to stay cautious. ^[31]
Seeking Alpha published “Chipotle’s Customers Are Revolting (Rating Downgrade)”, arguing that at around 30x projected FY25 earnings, the stock is still pricey relative to softening comps, revenue misses and repeated guidance cuts. ^[32]
Trefis has also warned in separate notes that “Chipotle’s selloff may not be over yet,” even as it highlights the support zone and long‑run strengths. ^[33]

The core bearish thesis: if consumers are genuinely done paying $13+ for a lunch bowl at scale, the old CMG valuation math doesn’t work.

Big Themes for CMG’s 2026–2028 Outlook

Strip away the headline noise, and a few structural questions will drive the stock over the next several years.

1. Pricing power vs. value perception

Chipotle has spent years flexing its pricing power, but that muscle now looks a bit strained.

Recent Zacks/Nasdaq coverage notes that the company is “recalibrating its pricing playbook”, moving toward slower, phased price increases that prioritize perceived value as inflation and tariffs push costs higher. ^[34]

The balancing act:

Raise prices too much → traffic declines, “customers are revolting” narratives spread, and competitors lure away budget‑conscious diners. ^[35]
Raise them too little → margins erode under wage, beef and tariff pressure. ^[36]

Unwrap Extra’s heavy BOGO tilt, together with more cautious pricing, shows Chipotle trying to reset the relationship: give customers back some value now, rebuild traffic and loyalty, and then layer in more surgical pricing later.

2. Unit growth as the main growth engine

One thing hasn’t changed: Chipotle is still opening restaurants at a ferocious pace.

2025 guidance calls for 315–345 new company‑owned restaurants, with >80% including Chipotlanes. ^[37]
Weekly news posts show 9–12 openings at a time in late 2025, plus international expansion and new markets like Georgetown, KY and smaller U.S. suburbs. ^[38]
Simply Wall St and other models assume double‑digit annual revenue growth through a mix of new units and modest comp recovery, pointing to $16+ billion in revenue by 2028 in some scenarios. ^[39]

Even if comps stay sluggish for a while, mathematically you can grow revenue fast by stacking more stores on the map — provided the underlying unit economics remain attractive.

3. Margin recovery and operational efficiency

Despite the recent squeeze, Chipotle still boasts solid profitability:

Trailing 12‑month revenue is just over $11 billion, with net income around $1.5 billion, implying a net margin near 13%. ^[40]
Operating metrics like free‑cash‑flow margin and return on equity remain strong by restaurant standards. ^[41]

The question is whether the company can:

Digest higher wages and commodity costs,
Avoid over‑discounting to chase traffic, and
Lever its digital mix (~37% of revenue) and new equipment/throughput initiatives to restore restaurant‑level margins toward the mid‑20s. ^[42]

If they succeed, today’s P/E multiple looks more defensible. If margins bleed further, even a lower share price could prove not cheap enough.

4. Brand, promos and long‑term loyalty

From Boorito to Unwrap Extra to BÉIS luggage, Chipotle increasingly behaves like a lifestyle brand with a restaurant business attached.

Holiday promos (BOGOs, ugly sweater nights, sports‑themed offers) are deepening ties with local communities and sports fandoms. ^[43]
Partnerships like No Kid Hungry add a social‑impact angle and help justify occasional price hikes to values‑driven younger customers. ^[44]
The BÉIS collaboration, while odd, is pure brand‑signal: Chipotle is confident enough in its fanbase that it can slap guac imagery on suitcases and still generate coverage rather than eye‑rolls. ^[45]

Long term, if Chipotle maintains cultural relevance and loyalty, the market is far more likely to forgive bad quarters and lean margins — just as it has with other iconic consumer brands.

Key Risks Investors Should Watch

Even if you’re a burrito‑maximalist, CMG comes with real risk:

Consumer fatigue and trading down
Coverage from outlets like the Wall Street Journal and LA Times has highlighted cooling enthusiasm for $13+ lunch bowls, especially among younger diners feeling the pinch of inflation. ^[46]
Execution risk on comps
Guidance for full‑year and Q4 comps keeps moving lower, and some analysts worry Chipotle has little visibility into when same‑store sales growth re‑accelerates. ^[47]
Valuation risk
Even after the selloff, CMG trades around 30–34x earnings, richer than many peers. If earnings undershoot those rosy 2028 scenarios, multiple compression could continue. ^[48]
Competitive pressure
Wingstop, Cava, Sweetgreen and others are fighting for the same “premium fast‑casual” wallet. Recent coverage notes Wingstop expanding during consumer weakness while Chipotle battles margin compression, a contrast investors haven’t missed. ^[49]
Macro and regulatory risks
Tariffs on key inputs, wage legislation, and broader economic downturns all hit restaurant chains quickly, and Chipotle’s premium positioning may make it particularly sensitive.

CMG Stock in December 2025: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Framed as an investing puzzle, CMG in early December 2025 looks roughly like this:

The bear story
- Traffic is weakening.
- Comps are negative in the near term.
- Margins are under pressure from wages, beef and tariffs.
- Management has cut guidance multiple times in one year.
- The stock, while battered, still isn’t “cheap” on simple multiples.
The bull story
- Chipotle remains a high‑margin, asset‑light, debt‑free brand with strong unit economics. ^[50]
- The company is still growing its store base aggressively, especially Chipotlanes. ^[51]
- Large investors and the bulk of Wall Street analysts still see substantial upside from current levels. ^[52]
- Holiday promos and a more measured pricing strategy could stabilize traffic and perception, even if they sting margins in the short run. ^[53]

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, the setup is fairly straightforward: if you believe Chipotle can:

Restore low‑to‑mid single‑digit comp growth over the next few years,
Keep opening 300+ stores per year with strong unit economics, and
Defend double‑digit net margins despite cost pressures,

then today’s price may very well look like a painful but temporary drawdown on a durable compounder.

For more conservative investors — or anyone allergic to volatility — the combination of negative near‑term comps, elevated valuation, and a still‑evolving macro picture makes CMG a name to monitor closely rather than rush into.

Either way, CMG has moved from “set‑and‑forget market darling” to genuinely interesting problem to think about. The next big chapter will likely be written on February 3, 2026, when Chipotle tells the world whether Unwrap Extra and its pricing reset were enough to stop the slide.

References