YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (ticker MSTY) has become one of the most watched high-yield ETFs in the market. As of the weekend of 7 December 2025, the fund offers a headline triple‑digit distribution rate, is about to undergo a 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split, and sits in the crosswinds of MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin’s latest boom‑and‑pullback cycle. [1]
This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyses around MSTY as of 7 December 2025 and explains what they actually imply rather than just repeating the yield number.
MSTY stock today: price, yield and key stats
At the close of trading on Friday, 5 December 2025, MSTY finished at $7.01, down 2.77% on the day, with after‑hours trading around $7.00. [2] According to the fund sponsor, MSTY’s net asset value (NAV) was $7.00, with net assets of about $1.82 billion and roughly 260 million shares outstanding. [3]
Other current snapshot numbers:
- 52‑week range: roughly $6.22 – $39.29, highlighting just how far the ETF has fallen from its early-2025 peak. [4]
- Trailing 12‑month dividend: about $20.23 per share, implying a trailing distribution yield near 290% at current prices. [5]
- Distribution profile (most recent):
- Weekly dividend declared on 3 December 2025 of $0.1388 per share
- Implied distribution rate of 100.69% (annualised)
- 30‑day SEC yield: 2.73%
- 92.88% of that latest payout classified as return of capital (ROC) rather than income. [6]
- Volatility: GuruFocus estimates annualised price volatility around 53%, with a 52‑week high of $39.29 and low of $6.22; their technical dashboard shows an RSI near 31, suggesting oversold conditions. [7]
Total‑return performance has turned sharply negative in 2025. StockAnalysis calculates MSTY’s 1‑year total return (including dividends) at roughly –47%, even after those huge payouts, although since launch in early 2024 the fund is still more than 100% cumulatively ahead thanks to an explosive first year. [8]
Put simply: MSTY still looks like an income monster on paper, but most of that “income” is your own capital being handed back to you as the share price trends down.
How MSTY actually works
MSTY is not a Bitcoin ETF and it doesn’t even own MicroStrategy stock directly. Instead, it is an options‑based single‑stock income ETF that tries to turn the violent swings of MicroStrategy into a weekly cash‑flow stream.
According to YieldMax’s own description and independent ETF summaries, MSTY: [9]
- Holds U.S. Treasury bills and cash as collateral.
- Uses options to create synthetic long exposure to MicroStrategy (MSTR).
- Then sells call options (or call spreads) on MSTR to collect option premiums.
- Pays out those option premiums, plus any capital gains and a lot of return of capital, in the form of weekly distributions.
This structure means:
- Upside is capped: when MSTR rips higher, the short calls limit how far MSTY can follow.
- Downside is not capped: if MSTR drops, MSTY eats most of the loss, while still trying to pay out income.
- Distributions can be heavily ROC: when option income and interest don’t cover the advertised yield, the fund simply returns investor capital, shrinking NAV over time. [10]
So MSTY is structurally designed for high cash flow at the potential expense of long‑term capital value.
The big near‑term catalyst: 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split on 8 December 2025
The most concrete corporate event around MSTY right now is its reverse stock split.
What’s happening?
- The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) and MIAX have confirmed a 1‑for‑5 reverse split for MSTY, effective before the market open on Monday, 8 December 2025. [11]
- Every 5 existing MSTY shares will be consolidated into 1 new share.
- From the options market’s perspective, the old MSTY options series will adjust to a new symbol MSTY1, with each contract now representing 20 post‑split shares instead of 100 pre‑split shares. [12]
- Futu/Moomoo’s news desk notes that the ETF will begin trading on a split‑adjusted basis on 8 December, and flags that reverse splits are often associated with distressed or heavily sold‑off securities. [13]
YieldMax has also published a generic FAQ showing that, in theory, a reverse split does not change the economic value of an investor’s position: you own fewer shares, each at a higher price, with distributions per share scaling accordingly. [14]
What it means in practice
If MSTY is around $7 pre‑split, a clean 1‑for‑5 split would mechanically reprice the ETF somewhere in the mid‑$30s, with each weekly distribution roughly multiplied by five (ignoring any change in the underlying strategy or option income). Your total dollar payout and total dollar investment shouldn’t change purely because of the split.
However:
- Reverse splits are often a sign that management is uncomfortable with a very low share price, or wants to avoid penny‑stock optics for a fund that has dropped more than 80% from its peak. [15]
- The split does nothing to fix the underlying issues of NAV erosion and dependence on Bitcoin‑linked volatility.
Short term, the split could briefly attract new retail attention (“MSTY is back above $30!”) or cause confusion around fractional shares being cashed out, which Reddit traders are already debating. [16]
Fresh analysis as of 7 December 2025
1. “MSTY: The Dark Side Of Its 100%+ Yield” – today’s bearish note
On 7 December, a new article on Seeking Alpha argues that MSTY’s eye‑popping yield is “largely unsustainable and primarily funded by return of capital”, and that the ETF has consistently underperformed MicroStrategy on a total‑return basis despite its high payouts. [17]
Key themes from that piece (paraphrased):
- The weekly distributions are increasingly composed of ROC, as confirmed by YieldMax’s own 92.88% ROC figure for the latest payment. [18]
- As NAV shrinks, the same dollar payout represents a larger percentage of the remaining capital, creating a feedback loop of “high yield, falling base.”
- Given capped upside and full downside exposure, MSTY is structurally challenged to keep paying a 100%+ annualised rate without further significant capital erosion.
In other words, the article’s thesis is that the headline yield is more optical than economic.
2. GuruFocus: very high yield, very oversold, very volatile
A 3 December GuruFocus note focuses on MSTY’s dividend announcement and technicals: [19]
- Confirms the $0.1388 weekly dividend and the ~277% indicated yield, based on their methodology.
- Puts MSTY’s volatility at 53.38%, far above typical equity ETFs.
- Highlights a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 30.96, near the classic oversold threshold of 30.
- Shows all the key moving averages (20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day) sloping downward above the current price, reinforcing a long‑term downtrend.
The tone is cautious: the piece frames MSTY as a very high‑yield but very high‑risk ETF with declining technical momentum—exactly the mix you would expect after a big drawdown.
3. 24/7 Wall St: part of the “passive income machines” club
In a 4 December 24/7 Wall St article, MSTY is profiled alongside QQQI, JEPQ and SPYI as one of four ETFs that “act like passive income machines.” For MSTY, the article stresses: [20]
- Assets have ballooned to more than $1.8 billion, signalling massive retail interest.
- The ETF does not own MSTR directly, but uses options to create synthetic exposure instead, parking most capital in U.S. Treasury bills.
- Weekly distributions are powered primarily by short call premiums, which can vary significantly with volatility.
- The expense ratio is 0.99%, materially higher than broad‑market ETFs, and investors face concentrated risk tied to a single, Bitcoin‑linked stock.
The conclusion there is balanced: MSTY sits at the riskier end of the income spectrum, suitable only for investors who can stomach extreme volatility and understand the structural trade‑offs.
4. BanklessTimes: MSTY vs MSTR in a bad year
A mid‑November analysis from BanklessTimes looked at MSTY as MicroStrategy’s share price tumbled: [21]
- They noted MSTR had dropped over 65% from its 2024 high, falling below $200 again, as Bitcoin slid toward the $90,000 area.
- By their count, MSTR was down about 31% year‑to‑date, while MSTY’s share price had fallen roughly 70%.
- On a total‑return basis, once MSTY’s dividends were included, the ETF was down about 30%, comparable to MSTR’s –31%.
Their core point: covered‑call funds like MSTY tend to blunt volatility and front‑load income, but they do not reliably beat owning the underlying stock over time. MSTY’s 2025 track record so far fits that pattern.
Forecasts: what models and algorithms are saying about MSTY
Forecasts for MSTY are all over the map, which is another way of saying nobody really knows—but the range itself is informative.
Short‑term technical forecast: bearish
Technical‑analysis site StockInvest currently labels MSTY a “sell candidate”, a rating they have had in place since early October. [22]
Their updated 5 December note highlights:
- MSTY fell 2.77% on Friday from $7.21 to $7.01 on heavy volume (~11 million shares).
- The ETF remains in the middle of a “very wide and falling trend”, with daily volatility above 5%.
- Their model projects a –56% move over the next three months, with a 90% probability band of $2.68 to $3.49 (pre‑split prices).
Those are purely statistical projections based on past price action and don’t account for the upcoming reverse split, which will mechanically raise the share price and may disrupt historical patterns.
Long‑term algorithmic forecast: wildly bullish… probably too bullish
On the other end of the spectrum, StockScan’s long‑horizon model projects almost absurdly high future prices for MSTY: [23]
- 2026 average target: $148.49 (about +2,000% from $7.01)
- 2027 average: $229.35 (+3,100%)
- 2030 average: $470.32 (+6,600%)
- 2035–2050: targets in the $900–$2,000+ range, implying five‑figure percentage gains.
These forecasts appear to treat MSTY like a conventional growth equity, ignoring:
- The capped upside imposed by the call‑writing strategy.
- Ongoing NAV erosion from returning capital.
- The fact that MSTY’s long‑term success depends on both Bitcoin’s path and the very specific volatility profile of MSTR, not just a simple price level. [24]
They are best read as a reminder that some automated models simply extrapolate optimistic patterns without understanding the fund’s structure.
Community sentiment: “too good to be true?”
Retail discussion on forums like r/YieldMaxETFs captures the emotional side of these numbers. Earlier in 2025, one widely shared thread marvelled that investing $100,000 in MSTY might “pay itself back in 17 months” at a 10% monthly distribution rate—before others pointed out the obvious catch: the share price can (and has) been falling even faster. [25]
More recent threads around the reverse split show holders split between:
- Hope that a higher post‑split price and fat dollar‑per‑share dividends will attract new buyers.
- Frustration from those who see the split as a cosmetic fix for deep capital losses and are looking to exit on any bounce. [26]
The Bitcoin and MicroStrategy factor
Because MSTY’s engine is MicroStrategy options, and MicroStrategy itself is effectively a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle, MSTY is doubly tied to crypto sentiment. [27]
Bitcoin right now
- Spot Bitcoin is trading around $89,000–$90,000 as of 7 December 2025, following a sharp drop from above $92,000 earlier in the week. [28]
- A recent (sponsored) article on CryptoDnes notes that Bitcoin hit a new all‑time high near $126,000 in Q4 2025 before sliding back below $90,000, and profiles analyst Jacob Bury’s view that BTC might bottom around $65,000 in 2026 before a potential move to the $250,000–$350,000 range by 2030. [29]
Those are speculative projections, not consensus forecasts, but they illustrate how wide the debate is.
MicroStrategy’s latest moves
- MicroStrategy closed Friday at $178.99, down nearly 4% on the day and well below its 2024 peak. [30]
- BanklessTimes’ November piece put MSTR more than 65% below its 2024 highs and down about 31% year‑to‑date at that point. [31]
- Barron’s recently reported that at least one major analyst has slashed MSTR’s price target by nearly 60%, while still rating the stock a Buy, underscoring both the perceived long‑term opportunity and the elevated risk. [32]
For MSTY, this matters in two ways:
- Option premiums tend to be rich when volatility is high, helping support distributions.
- But sharp drawdowns in MSTR (or Bitcoin) can crush MSTY’s NAV faster than the income can compensate, as 2025’s performance has shown.
Forecasting MSTY is therefore almost the same as forecasting a specific mix of Bitcoin price and volatility in coming years—a notoriously uncertain exercise.
Key risks to keep in focus
The latest news and analysis all circle back to a few structural risks that investors should understand before treating MSTY as a simple “income ETF.”
- Single‑issuer concentration
MSTY is effectively a one‑stock derivatives play on MicroStrategy, making it much more volatile than diversified income funds. YieldMax itself flags “single issuer risk” prominently in its materials. [33] - Derivatives and call‑writing risk
The use of options magnifies path dependence: long flat stretches or sharp directional moves can both hurt future income, even if Bitcoin ultimately does well. [34] - Return‑of‑capital‑driven yield
With the latest distribution being over 90% ROC, a large part of MSTY’s current “yield” is simply your own money being returned, steadily lowering the capital base from which future income can be generated. [35] - Reverse split optics
The 1‑for‑5 reverse split doesn’t change portfolio value, but it does highlight how far the ETF’s price has fallen. Some analysts and retail traders see it as a red flag rather than a reset. [36] - Tax complexity
Heavy ROC distributions change investors’ cost basis and can make tax reporting more complex, especially in taxable accounts—a point repeatedly raised in analyst commentary and fund disclosures. [37]
How to interpret MSTY now
Taken together, the latest developments paint a nuanced picture:
- Income story: The ETF is still delivering enormous weekly cash flows relative to its price. The official distribution rate around 100% of NAV and the trailing cash yield near 300% are real numbers, but they are being sustained largely by returning capital in a period of NAV decline. [38]
- Price and risk story: The share price is down roughly 40–50% over the past year, and technical models see a continued downtrend in the absence of a strong Bitcoin or MicroStrategy recovery. [39]
- Structural story: The upcoming 1‑for‑5 reverse split is cosmetic from a valuation perspective but symbolically acknowledges the depth of the drawdown. It may improve optics and per‑share dividend figures post‑split, but it does not solve the underlying challenge of sustaining large payouts without eroding capital. [40]
For investors and traders watching MSTY into and beyond the 8 December split:
- MSTY remains a high‑risk, high‑income satellite position, not a bond substitute.
- Its fate is intertwined with Bitcoin cycles and MicroStrategy’s corporate decisions, plus the health of options markets around MSTR. [41]
- Short‑term forecasts are extremely noisy; long‑term algorithmic targets that imply several‑thousand‑percent gains should be treated with deep skepticism in light of the fund’s capped upside and ROC‑heavy structure. [42]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. yieldmaxetfs.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. yieldmaxetfs.com, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. yieldmaxetfs.com, 10. yieldmaxetfs.com, 11. www.miaxglobal.com, 12. www.miaxglobal.com, 13. news.futunn.com, 14. yieldmaxetfs.com, 15. news.futunn.com, 16. www.reddit.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. yieldmaxetfs.com, 19. www.gurufocus.com, 20. 247wallst.com, 21. www.banklesstimes.com, 22. stockinvest.us, 23. stockscan.io, 24. yieldmaxetfs.com, 25. www.reddit.com, 26. www.reddit.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. twelvedata.com, 29. cryptodnes.bg, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.banklesstimes.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. yieldmaxetfs.com, 34. yieldmaxetfs.com, 35. yieldmaxetfs.com, 36. www.miaxglobal.com, 37. yieldmaxetfs.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. www.miaxglobal.com, 41. yieldmaxetfs.com, 42. stockscan.io
