Date: December 7, 2025 – Preview for the U.S. session on Monday, December 8, 2025. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
1. Where Marvell Stock Stands Heading Into Monday
Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) closed on Friday, December 5, 2025 at $98.91, up about 0.7% on the day, after trading between $97.31 and $102.64 on heavy volume of roughly 22 million shares. [1]
In after‑hours trading on Friday, MRVL slipped to around $95–96, indicating some profit‑taking after a powerful multi‑day rally. [2]
Key starting points before Monday’s open:
- Price zone: Just under the psychologically important $100 level. TechStock²+1
- Market cap: Roughly $84 billion–$86 billion as of early December. [3]
- Short interest: About 36.9 million shares short, roughly 4–5% of the float, with ~2–2.3 days to cover at typical volumes – enough to matter if a big squeeze develops, but not extreme. [4]
Technically, several services that track trend signals describe MRVL’s current moving‑average setup as tilted bullish, with more positive signals than negative as of December 7–8. [5]
Bottom line: MRVL enters Monday as a high‑beta AI infrastructure play trading near multi‑month highs, with a still‑moderate short base and very active analyst coverage.
2. The Big Story: Record Q3, AI Data Center Boom and Celestial AI
Record Q3 FY 2026 results
On December 2, Marvell reported record Q3 FY 2026 numbers that essentially set up the entire move you’re seeing now:
- Revenue: $2.075 billion, up 37% year over year and slightly above its own guidance and consensus. [6]
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.76, up 77% year over year and modestly ahead of expectations. [7]
- Data center revenue: About $1.52 billion, growing ~38% YoY and making up roughly 73% of total sales, underscoring how AI and cloud have completely reshaped the business. [8]
Management guided Q4 revenue to around $2.2 billion (±5%), ahead of what Wall Street was modeling, and projected data center revenue growth of at least mid‑20% next year, with overall revenue around $10 billion for the next fiscal year. [9]
Several analysts and tech strategists framed this quarter as confirmation that Marvell’s “AI infrastructure pivot” is working, with data center now dominating the story. [10]
Celestial AI deal: Marvell’s photonics bet
Simultaneously, Marvell announced a headline‑grabbing acquisition of Celestial AI, a private photonics‑focused chip startup:
- Deal value: About $3.25 billion, split between $1 billion in cash and 27.2 million MRVL shares (~$2.25 billion), with additional performance‑based stock awards tied to revenue milestones through 2029. [11]
- Strategic rationale: Celestial’s “photonic fabric” aims to move data between compute and memory using light instead of electrons, improving bandwidth and power efficiency in AI data centers. [12]
- Revenue potential: Marvell and Celestial see a $10 billion market opportunity; Marvell is targeting a $500 million annualized run rate by late FY 2028, ramping to about $1 billion by FY 2029 from this technology. [13]
- Key relationship: As part of the deal, Amazon receives a warrant to buy Marvell shares tied to future photonics purchases through 2030 – a notable endorsement from a hyperscaler. [14]
Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and others describe this as a transformational move that strengthens Marvell’s position versus NVIDIA and Broadcom in next‑gen AI data center connectivity. [15]
Following earnings plus the Celestial AI announcement, MRVL shares jumped roughly 9–13% in premarket/after‑hours trading on December 3, and have held most of those gains into the weekend. [16]
3. Fresh Headlines From December 7 You Need to Know
The user specifically asked for news, forecasts and analysis dated December 7, 2025. Here are the key takeaways investors should digest before the bell on Monday.
3.1 Microsoft reportedly weighing a shift away from Marvell custom chips
A potentially negative headline: Microsoft is in talks to move custom chip design work from Marvell to Broadcom, according to a report summarized by TechStrong and originally sourced from The Information. [17]
- If accurate, this would challenge part of Marvell’s custom ASIC pipeline and could dampen some of the “hyperscaler” upside embedded in bullish models.
- At this stage, the story describes “talks” rather than a completed transition, and neither company has publicly confirmed it.
What to watch Monday: Any pre‑market commentary, analyst notes, or price reaction that explicitly references this Microsoft/Broadcom report. For a stock currently trading on AI enthusiasm, potential customer concentration risk matters.
3.2 “Hidden AI powerhouse” thesis gets airtime
TalkMarkets, syndicated across multiple financial news feeds, published “Marvell Stock: The Hidden AI Powerhouse Wall Street Keeps Underestimating” on December 7. [18]
The article argues that:
- Marvell’s deeper focus on custom AI silicon, optical networking and high‑speed data center connectivity places it squarely at the core of the AI infrastructure wave.
- Despite the recent rally, Wall Street models may still underappreciate its longer‑term earnings power from AI‑driven infrastructure.
This dovetails with the “mispriced” narrative from a series of Seeking Alpha and research pieces over the last few days that frame MRVL as an AI infrastructure cornerstone still trading below its full potential. [19]
3.3 Analyst recap: new $90 target and bull‑case write‑ups
Over the weekend and into Sunday, multiple analyst‑ and hedge‑fund‑style commentaries were circulated:
- Goldman Sachs lifted its MRVL target to $90 (Neutral), citing data center momentum; this was repackaged in several “Marvell wins $90 target” headlines on December 6–7. [20]
- Insider Monkey / Finviz “Bull Case Theory” recap (Dec 5, still widely promoted on Dec 7) highlights:
- MRVL at about $100 per share with a trailing P/E near 35 and forward P/E around 30.
- Ownership in more than 70 hedge‑fund portfolios, reinforcing institutional interest.
[21]
On top of that, MarketBeat’s news feed on December 7 spotlights Marvell among “promising infrastructure stocks” and amplifies the TalkMarkets bullish AI piece. [22]
3.4 Retail‑focused media: MRVL as a “no‑brainer” 2026 growth stock
A new Motley Fool piece dated December 7, 2025 titled “3 No‑Brainer Growth Stocks to Buy for 2026 With $100 Right Now” includes Marvell as one of three highlighted names. [23]
Key points from that article and related Fool coverage:
- MRVL is described as a mission‑critical AI infrastructure supplier, not a hype‑only AI play.
- The author emphasizes secular AI data center demand, strong Q3 execution, and elevated but not “bubble‑level” valuation.
- The tone is clearly bullish and long‑term oriented (2026 and beyond).
3.5 Aggregated “AI momentum” narrative
A detailed weekend wrap‑up titled “Marvell Technology (MRVL) Stock Surges on AI Momentum: Latest News, Analyst Forecasts and Outlook as of December 6, 2025” pulls together this week’s catalysts: the Q3 beat, Celestial AI deal, and multiple analyst upgrades. TechStock²+1
The article notes that:
- MRVL is trading just under $100 and near multi‑month highs.
- The stock has become one of the most closely watched AI infrastructure plays on Wall Street this week.
Another short commentary on Threads simply sums up the mood: “Marvell Technology remains a beneficiary of the AI boom,” pointing to strong revenue growth and the AI‑driven mix shift toward data center. [24]
4. Analysts Are Rushing to Raise Targets
The post‑earnings scramble among Wall Street analysts is a crucial part of the setup heading into Monday.
Consensus and range
- Average 12‑month price target: Around $111–$111.5, implying roughly 12% upside from Friday’s close near $99. [25]
- Target range: From the mid‑$60s on the low end to $150–$156 at the top. [26]
- Consensus rating: Solid “Buy”, with no “Sell” or “Strong Sell” ratings in the current compiled data. [27]
Notable recent target hikes (past week)
Several firms raised MRVL price targets following Q3 and the Celestial deal:
- Deutsche Bank: Buy rating, target raised to $125 from $90. [28]
- KeyBanc: Overweight, target to $130 from $90. [29]
- JPMorgan: Overweight, $130 target from $120. [30]
- Susquehanna: Positive, target to $120 from $100. [31]
- Needham: Buy, target to $120 from $95. [32]
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Neutral, target to $110 from $90, implying about 10% upside from its reference price. [33]
- Roth/MKM: Buy, target to $135 from $105, one of the more aggressive upgrades. [34]
- Goldman Sachs: Neutral, target to $90 from $80 (still below current price, acting as a more cautious counterweight). [35]
On top of that, an Investopedia recap highlights that Oppenheimer boosted its target to a Street‑high $150 after the Celestial AI announcement and Q3 beat. [36]
Put together, the trend in targets is decisively upward, even as a few neutral ratings warn about valuation and execution risk.
5. Valuation Check: Not Cheap, But Not at Peak Froth Either
Using Friday’s close:
- Trailing P/E: Roughly 35x.
- Forward P/E: Roughly 25–30x, depending on the data source and exact EPS estimate used. [37]
- Price‑to‑sales (TTM): Around 11x. [38]
For context, many bulls argue this is reasonable for a company growing data center revenue near 40% year over year, especially with a multi‑year AI capex cycle and a newly expanded photonics portfolio. [39]
On the other hand:
- MRVL is still down double‑digits year‑to‑date despite the rally, which some analysts attribute to earlier skepticism about the sustainability of AI demand and custom‑chip concentration risk. [40]
So going into Monday, the valuation is demanding but not obviously bubble‑level. If earnings and AI data center demand keep tracking current guidance, the multiples could be justified; any disappointment or big customer loss (e.g., Microsoft risk) could hit the stock hard.
6. Key Risks and Contradictory Signals Heading Into December 8
Before the open, serious investors should be aware of the tension between a very bullish narrative and some emerging risks.
Customer concentration and Microsoft risk
The reported talks about Microsoft shifting custom chip work from Marvell to Broadcom are the most immediate headline risk. [41]
- Marvell has regularly highlighted partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft as key drivers for its custom AI silicon business. [42]
- If Microsoft were to materially reduce or reallocate that work, it could pressure longer‑term revenue expectations in custom ASICs, even if the broad AI market remains strong.
The story is not confirmed by the companies, but it’s exactly the sort of narrative that can move a high‑expectation stock at the open.
Integration and execution risk from Celestial AI
The Celestial AI acquisition brings huge upside potential – but also integration risk, dilution and execution complexity:
- The deal is large relative to Marvell’s size and involves substantial equity issuance. [43]
- Revenue contribution is back‑loaded to 2028–2029, so the near‑term is mostly about R&D, design wins and capex, not immediate profit. [44]
Any sign that the integration is slower, more expensive, or less accretive than hoped could weigh on the stock.
Macro and AI‑cycle risk
Marvell’s story is now deeply tied to the AI data center cycle:
- Management and independent analysts are talking about 25%+ data center revenue growth next year, and strong growth beyond. [45]
- But broader tech commentary over the past few months has warned that AI spending may not be limitless, and that hyperscalers can and do pause or re‑prioritize spend. [46]
If AI capex expectations moderate, MRVL’s high‑growth, high‑multiple narrative could be challenged.
Algorithmic and technical forecasts
Quant forecasting site Intellectia.ai is currently projecting a ~12% move over the next month, with a bullish bias in its moving‑average signals, but also shows much lower average prices in some long‑dated 2026 estimates. [47]
That’s a reminder: model‑driven forecasts can diverge sharply and should not be treated as guarantees, especially for a volatile semiconductor stock.
7. Trading Checklist for MRVL on December 8, 2025
If you’re watching Marvell at Monday’s open, here are the key things to monitor:
- Pre‑market price action vs. Friday’s close
- Does MRVL open above or below $98–$99? A gap down would suggest traders are focusing on the Microsoft/Broadcom story or profit‑taking; a strong gap up would signal the AI‑bullish thesis remains dominant.
- Volume relative to recent days
- Average daily volume is around the high‑teens to low‑20 million shares. Moves on significantly higher volume would confirm institutional participation in either direction. [48]
- Newsflow on the Microsoft relationship
- Any company statements, analyst notes, or additional reporting that confirm, deny, or clarify the custom chip situation with Microsoft could quickly reset expectations.
- Reactions from major analysts
- Watch for Monday‑morning notes from firms that recently raised targets (Deutsche Bank, JPM, Needham, etc.) reacting specifically to the weekend Microsoft news or adding details on Celestial AI integration. [49]
- Peer moves: NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD and AI infrastructure names
- Marvell frequently trades in sympathy with other AI chip and infrastructure stocks. If AI names rally broadly, MRVL may be pulled higher; if there’s sector‑wide selling, it may struggle to buck the trend. [50]
- Options and volatility
- Elevated implied volatility would reflect the market’s view that large swings (up or down) are more likely in the short term. Look for unusually active options strikes around $95, $100 and $110 as tells for where traders are positioning.
8. Takeaway: A High‑Conviction AI Story With Fresh Questions
Going into the December 8, 2025 session, Marvell Technology sits at the intersection of huge AI-driven upside and very real execution and customer‑concentration risks.
Bullish case in one line:
- MRVL is rapidly becoming an AI data center infrastructure pure play, with record revenue, nearly 40% data center growth, a bold photonics acquisition and a wave of upward price‑target revisions from Wall Street. [51]
Bearish/cautious case in one line:
- The stock already discounts aggressive AI growth, faces integration risk from Celestial AI, and may be vulnerable to customer shifts such as Microsoft exploring Broadcom for custom chips, all while trading at premium multiples. [52]
For Monday’s open, the key question is which narrative investors choose to emphasize.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. investor.marvell.com, 3. companiesmarketcap.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. intellectia.ai, 6. investor.marvell.com, 7. investor.marvell.com, 8. finance.yahoo.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. futurumgroup.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. techstrong.it, 18. talkmarkets.com, 19. seekingalpha.com, 20. finance.yahoo.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.fool.com, 24. www.threads.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.benzinga.com, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. www.benzinga.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. www.gurufocus.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.cantechletter.com, 35. finance.yahoo.com, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. finance.yahoo.com, 38. finance.yahoo.com, 39. moorinsightsstrategy.com, 40. www.investopedia.com, 41. techstrong.it, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.wsj.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. moorinsightsstrategy.com, 46. fortune.com, 47. intellectia.ai, 48. finance.yahoo.com, 49. www.benzinga.com, 50. www.reuters.com, 51. investor.marvell.com, 52. techstrong.it
