Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into the new trading week in an unusual position: strong sales momentum and robust membership trends on one side, but a fresh lawsuit against the Trump administration, slowing multi‑year U.S. sales growth, and a still‑rich valuation on the other. As of the last close, Costco shares traded around $894.68, modestly below recent highs and roughly flat to slightly negative for 2025, even as the S&P 500 is up in the mid‑teens percentage range this year. [1]
Below is a concise pre‑market briefing for Monday, December 8, 2025, summarizing the key news, forecasts, and analysis dated December 7, 2025 (and a few days prior) that could shape how COST trades this week.
1. Price Snapshot and Recent Performance
- Last close: About $894.68 per share as of December 5, 2025. [2]
- Short‑term move: Shares have pulled back from above $920 earlier in the week, reflecting investor worries about slowing U.S. trends and elevated expectations heading into earnings. [3]
- Year‑to‑date performance:
- A recent MarketWatch analysis notes that Costco’s stock has slipped into the red for 2025, down about 2.2% year‑to‑date after a 2.9% drop on Thursday. [4]
- Barron’s, looking slightly earlier in the week, characterized the stock as up only about 1% for the year, versus roughly 16% gains for the S&P 500—underlining clear underperformance. [5]
Takeaway before the open: Costco enters the week with a muted share price relative to its own strong fundamentals and a premium valuation multiple that leaves little room for disappointment.
2. November Sales: Strong Top Line, Nuanced Trends
Costco’s November and fiscal Q1 2026 sales update is the single most important recent data point ahead of earnings.
Headline numbers
From Costco’s official November sales release: [6]
- November net sales (4 weeks ended Nov. 30, 2025):
- $23.64 billion, up 8.1% year over year.
- Fiscal Q1 2026 net sales (12 weeks ended Nov. 23, 2025):
- $65.98 billion, up 8.2% from $60.99 billion last year.
- Net sales for the first 13 weeks:
- $71.97 billion, also up 8.2% year over year.
Comparable sales and digital
- Total company comps (reported):
- 4 weeks: +6.9%
- 12 weeks: +6.4%
- U.S. comps (reported): +6.0% for the four weeks.
- Digitally enabled sales: up 16.6% in November and 20.5% for the quarter, underscoring accelerating online momentum. [7]
A Barron’s piece highlighted that November same‑store sales growth of 6.9% topped October’s 6.6%, with strong performance in food, candy, meats, bakery, jewelry, and health and beauty, and global traffic up 3.8% with average ticket up 3%. [8]
Why some analysts are still cautious
MarketWatch and Morningstar struck a more cautious tone, pointing to slowing multi‑year U.S. growth despite solid single‑month numbers: [9]
- November U.S. growth on a two‑year compounded basis fell to about 10.1%, down from 12.5% in October.
- U.S. store traffic grew around 3%, down from 3.7% a month earlier.
Analysts worry that this deceleration, even off high levels, could limit upside for a stock that still trades at a rich earnings multiple.
Pre‑market implication: November sales are objectively strong, but the narrative is shifting from “Costco is crushing it” to “Can Costco sustain this pace at 50x earnings?” That tension is central to how COST may trade on Monday.
3. New Legal Risk: Costco vs. the Trump Administration Over Tariffs
On December 7, 2025, Costco’s legal strategy became a fresh headline risk.
The lawsuit
According to reporting from The Washington Post, Costco has become the only major U.S. retailer to formally challenge tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, filing a lawsuit seeking a full refund of levies paid. [10]
Key points from that coverage:
- Costco’s suit questions whether the administration had authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to declare trade deficits a national emergency and impose tariffs.
- The move differentiates Costco from peers that criticized tariffs verbally but avoided courtroom confrontation.
Meyka’s AI‑driven market note the same day framed the lawsuit as a bold step that could trigger short‑term volatility due to legal costs, policy uncertainty and investor nerves. [11]
Why Costco feels able to push back
The same Washington Post analysis emphasizes Costco’s unusually loyal customer base:
- Around 145 million global members with renewal rates above 92% in the U.S. [12]
- Fiscal 2025 sales up about 8% to $269.9 billion, with the stock up roughly 140% over five years, giving Costco both balance‑sheet and brand strength as it takes on legal risk. [13]
Pre‑market implication:
The lawsuit introduces headline risk ahead of earnings and could influence how investors discount potential tariff refunds versus the risk of prolonged litigation and margin noise. It also gives analysts another wild card to model in Q1 guidance and beyond.
4. Earnings on December 11: What the Street Expects
Costco will report its Q1 fiscal 2026 results (for the quarter ended November 2025) after the close on Thursday, December 11, 2025, with a webcast scheduled at 1:15 p.m. PT. [14]
Consensus forecasts
Nasdaq’s earnings page and MarketBeat’s preview line up on current Street expectations: [15]
- Consensus EPS: about $4.24 per share for the quarter.
- Consensus revenue: roughly $67.0 billion.
MarketBeat also notes: [16]
- In Q4 FY2025 (ended Sept. 25, 2025), Costco delivered EPS of $5.87 vs. $5.81 expected, with net sales of $86.16 billion, up 8.1% year over year.
- Analysts are modeling around $18 EPS for the current fiscal year and about $20 EPS for the next, reflecting mid‑single to high‑single‑digit earnings growth expectations.
A Seeking Alpha preview (behind a paywall but summarized in search snippets) notes some analysts run scenario EPS around the mid‑$4 range for Q1, assuming net income margins around 3%, while also warning tariffs could compress margins closer to 2.8%. [17]
Longer‑term growth outlook
Simply Wall St’s aggregated forecasts currently suggest Costco is expected to grow: [18]
- Earnings ~8.4% per year,
- Revenue ~6.5% per year,
- With return on equity forecast around 23–24% over three years.
Pre‑market implication:
Heading into Monday, COST trades as a high‑quality compounder priced for continued mid‑ to high‑single‑digit profit growth. Any sign that tariffs, litigation or slowing U.S. comps could knock those numbers off course will be scrutinized.
5. Strategy Check: Costco vs. Walmart and the E‑Commerce Arms Race
A fresh 24/7 Wall St. piece on December 7 compares Costco’s approach to Walmart’s more aggressive omnichannel push. [19]
Highlights:
- E‑commerce growth:
- Walmart: +27% e‑commerce growth in its latest quarter.
- Costco: +13.6% e‑commerce growth in its Q4.
- Profitability:
- Costco’s net income up 10.9% to $2.61 billion, with an operating margin around 3.88%. [20]
- Valuation:
- The article pegs Costco at roughly 49x earnings, compared with Walmart around 40x, despite Walmart’s faster e‑commerce growth. [21]
The core message:
- Costco is framed as the “boring but rock‑solid” defensive choice, leaning on its membership model, high renewals and disciplined capital spending.
- Walmart is cast as the growth‑ier omni‑channel story, backed by heavy logistics and marketplace investment, but with more moving parts. [22]
Pre‑market implication:
For Monday’s open, investors will weigh whether COST’s membership‑driven stability still justifies a valuation premium to peers that are growing faster online. Any incremental news about digital initiatives or membership trends could move the needle.
6. Governance Update: Gina Raimondo Joins the Board Slate
On December 4, 2025, Costco announced the nomination of former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to its Board of Directors. [23]
Key points:
- Raimondo served as U.S. Secretary of Commerce from 2021 to 2025, and previously as Governor of Rhode Island and State Treasurer.
- She also has experience in venture capital, bringing both policy and investment savvy. [24]
This nomination comes just as Costco takes a high‑profile stance on trade policy and tariffs, giving the board a director with deep knowledge of federal economic policy and global trade. That may reassure investors who worry about navigating the geopolitical side of the tariff lawsuit.
Pre‑market implication:
While board changes rarely move the stock short term, Raimondo’s nomination strengthens Costco’s policy and regulatory bench—relevant as tariffs, antitrust scrutiny and cross‑border expansion remain key themes.
7. How the Tariff Fight and Earnings Setup Interact
Putting it all together:
- Tariff lawsuit:
- Could unlock refunds of prior levies if Costco prevails, a potential medium‑term earnings boost. [25]
- In the near term, it adds headline risk and feeds into analyst debates about margin volatility and political blowback.
- Current fundamentals:
- November and Q1 sales show mid‑single‑digit comp growth and high‑single‑digit net sales growth, with digital channels accelerating. [26]
- Valuation and sentiment:
- After roughly 100%+ gains across 2023–2024, the stock is little changed or slightly negative in 2025, and a MarketWatch piece notes it has turned negative for the year as bears point to moderating U.S. trends. [27]
For Monday’s open, the market is effectively asking:
Is Costco still worth paying nearly 50x earnings for, given slowing multi‑year U.S. comps, legal uncertainty over tariffs, and rising competition—despite excellent membership economics and steady high‑single‑digit growth?
That’s the tension that could drive short‑term volatility.
8. Key Things to Watch on December 8, 2025
Here’s a quick checklist for COST watchers before the bell:
- Pre‑market and early trading reaction
- Does the stock drift lower as traders price in tariff and sales‑trend concerns, or do dip‑buyers step in around the upper‑$800s?
- News flow around the lawsuit
- Any new filings, administration responses, or commentary from legal experts could quickly reprioritize tariff risk in investors’ minds. [28]
- Analyst notes and rating changes
- Macro backdrop and the Fed
- A Fed meeting and prospective quarter‑point rate cut this week are in focus; Barron’s has grouped Costco with other “stocks to watch” around that decision. Lower rates could help premium defensives like COST, but a risk‑on shift might push money into higher‑beta names instead. [31]
- Earnings‑preview chatter
- Comparisons to Walmart, BJ’s and other peers
- MarketWatch highlighted that while Costco is roughly flat in 2025, Walmart is up more than 25% and BJ’s is modestly positive—evidence that investors have alternatives in the warehouse/discount space. [34]
9. Bottom Line for Costco Stock Before the Bell
As of December 7, 2025, the story going into Monday’s open looks like this:
- Fundamentals: Strong—high‑single‑digit sales growth, rising digital sales, resilient traffic, and a still‑elite membership engine. [35]
- Risks: Growing—legal risk from a rare, high‑profile tariff lawsuit, moderation in multi‑year U.S. comps, and margin pressure fears. [36]
- Valuation: Elevated—around high‑40s P/E, well above Walmart and many staples peers. [37]
- Sentiment: Cautious—after two blockbuster years of gains, 2025 has been a sideways to slightly negative year for COST, and more investors are asking whether expectations are finally too high. [38]
For traders and long‑term investors alike, the next few days—Monday’s reaction, any tariff headlines, and Thursday’s earnings—will go a long way toward deciding whether Costco’s “boring but brilliant” story can keep commanding its premium.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. investor.costco.com, 7. investor.costco.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.washingtonpost.com, 11. meyka.com, 12. www.washingtonpost.com, 13. www.washingtonpost.com, 14. investor.costco.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. simplywall.st, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. 247wallst.com, 21. 247wallst.com, 22. 247wallst.com, 23. investor.costco.com, 24. www.barchart.com, 25. www.washingtonpost.com, 26. investor.costco.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.washingtonpost.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. seekingalpha.com, 34. www.marketwatch.com, 35. investor.costco.com, 36. www.washingtonpost.com, 37. 247wallst.com, 38. www.marketwatch.com
