Kaynes Technology Share Price Today: Stock Crashes 43% From Peak as Kotak Flags Accounting Issues – Is KAYNES Still a Long-Term Story? (8 December 2025)

Kaynes Technology India Ltd (NSE: KAYNES, BSE: 543664) has gone from market darling to market stress test in a matter of weeks.

As of Monday, 8 December 2025, the stock has:

• Fallen about 19% over the last three trading sessions, hitting an intraday low of around ₹4,268 on the BSE. ^[1]
• Slumped roughly 43% from its recent peak of ₹7,705 on 7 October 2025. ^[2]
• Is down over 40% in 2025 year-to-date, with Moneycontrol estimating a drawdown of about 42%. ^[3]

At the same time, the company just delivered one of the strongest sets of results in India’s electronics manufacturing space, and sits on a hefty order book plus a high-profile semiconductor (OSAT) ramp-up. ^[4]

This article pulls together all the major news, forecasts and analyses available up to 8 December 2025 to map out what’s actually going on with Kaynes Technology’s stock.

1. Kaynes Technology share price today (8 December 2025)

• On Monday, 8 December 2025, Kaynes Technology extended its losing streak to a third straight session, with the stock down about 19% over these three days and touching a low of ₹4,268.35 on the BSE. ^[5]
• On Friday, 5 December, the stock plunged as much as 12.7% intraday to ₹4,343, an eight‑month low, and closed over 11% down around ₹4,424. ^[6]
• Moneycontrol pegs the close that day at ₹4,365, noting that the stock had fallen about 17% in just two sessions since Kotak’s report surfaced. ^[7]
• Over the past month, Kaynes has dropped roughly 31%, even as the BSE Sensex has gained about 2–3%. ^[8]

Over the last 52 weeks, the stock has traded between roughly ₹3,825 and ₹7,822, according to consensus data on Investing.com. ^[9]

Technically, several commentaries now characterise the trend as bearish, with the stock well below key moving averages and momentum indicators still weak, though some analysts point out that the sharp gap with its 200‑day moving average could set up a tactical mean‑reversion bounce if sentiment stabilises. ^[10]

2. The trigger: Kotak’s accounting & governance concerns

The current sell‑off is not about growth slowing; it’s about trust in the numbers.

A detailed note from Kotak Institutional Equities flagged several issues in Kaynes’ FY25 annual report and H1 FY26 disclosures, especially around the acquisition of Iskraemeco and related‑party transactions. ^[11]

Key concerns include:

1. Ambiguous goodwill & intangible accounting
   • Kaynes acquired Iskraemeco and Sensonic in FY25 for about ₹88.3 crore, yet the consolidated balance sheet did not show a corresponding jump in goodwill; instead it showed a small net negative adjustment and a rise in general reserves. ^[12]
   • Kotak argued that the treatment of customer contracts as intangible assets, and the way these were netted against goodwill, made the acquisition accounting harder to interpret. ^[13]
2. Jump in contingent liabilities
   • Contingent liabilities rose to about ₹520 crore in FY25, roughly 18% of net worth, up from ₹270 crore the prior year. A significant portion relates to performance bank guarantees and corporate guarantees for subsidiaries like Iskraemeco and Kaynes Electronics. ^[14]
3. Non‑disclosure of related‑party transactions (RPTs)
   • Iskraemeco’s filings show purchases of ₹180 crore from Kaynes Electronics Manufacturing, plus year‑end payables of ₹320 crore to Kaynes Technology and ₹180 crore to Kaynes Electronics, and receivables of ₹190 crore from Kaynes Technology.
   • These balances did not appear in the standalone related‑party disclosures of Kaynes Technology or Kaynes Electronics Manufacturing, which Kotak cited as a serious disclosure lapse. ^[15]
4. High reported borrowing cost
   • Kotak noted an average borrowing cost of 17.7% in FY25 — strikingly high for a mid‑cap industrial company with growth ambitions. ^[16]
5. Aggressive capitalisation of technical know‑how
   • About ₹180 crore (roughly 6.5% of revenue) was capitalised as technical know‑how, designs and prototypes in FY25, boosting reported earnings today at the cost of higher amortisation tomorrow. ^[17]

Taken together, Kotak framed these as accounting, disclosure and balance‑sheet quality concerns, particularly around the smart meter subsidiary Iskraemeco, which contributed a large chunk of FY25 profit growth. ^[18]

3. Management response: “Nothing ambiguous” vs “inadvertent” lapses

Kaynes has launched a full‑scale damage‑control exercise.

3.1 Clarification to stock exchanges

On 5 December 2025, the company filed a formal clarification with BSE and NSE, line‑by‑line responding to Kotak’s points: ^[19]

• Goodwill & intangibles: Management said the treatment is consistent with Ind AS 103 (Business Combinations). Since most of the consideration for Iskraemeco relates to long‑term customer contracts, these were recognised as intangible assets and amortised over the contract life, with the intangibles largely netted off against goodwill.
• Contingent liabilities: The ₹520‑crore figure is largely performance bank guarantees and corporate guarantees given to Iskraemeco and other subsidiaries to meet post‑acquisition funding needs, not immediate debt. ^[20]
• Related‑party transactions: The company admitted that certain RPTs were “inadvertently not disclosed” in the standalone financials, but stressed that they were eliminated in consolidation and did not affect group‑level numbers. It says the lapses have been corrected and “noted for future compliance”. ^[21]
• Borrowing cost: Kaynes argued that once bill discounting is properly included, the effective borrowing cost is closer to 10%, and that the reported 17.7% for FY25 is partly a quirk of the calculation method. ^[22]
• Technical know‑how capitalisation: The ₹180‑crore figure is broken down into large customer contracts (₹115 crore), development costs related to Iskraemeco (₹26 crore) and in‑house R&D intangibles (₹39 crore), all of which management argues are legitimate long‑term assets. ^[23]

3.2 Fresh messaging on 8 December

On 8 December 2025, in an analyst interaction reported by NDTV Profit, management doubled down on its defence of the FY25 accounts: ^[24]

• Kaynes insisted there is “nothing ambiguous” about the FY25 annual report and that “most of the conclusions or implications” in the Kotak note “are actually not valid”.
• At the same time, management acknowledged communication gaps and earlier “lapses” around the Iskraemeco disclosures, promising that such issues “will not happen again” and calling the current volatility a “passing phase” given that “business numbers are looking very promising”.

This message is clearly aimed at separating governance concerns (which can be fixed) from business fundamentals (which remain strong) — but markets have not fully bought that story yet.

4. Market reaction: brutal de‑rating despite bullish brokers

The market’s verdict so far has been harsh.

• Kaynes shares fell 6% on Thursday as Kotak’s note first hit the street. ^[25]
• They slid another ~6% on Friday, even after the company’s clarification, with Economic Times noting that traders largely ignored the rebuttal and continued to sell. ^[26]
• Business Standard estimates a 31% fall over the last month and a 41% drop from the recent three‑month high of ₹7,705. ^[27]
• Moneycontrol highlights that the stock is down over 42% in 2025 and trades at a trailing P/E above 100x, even after the correction. ^[28]

4.1 JP Morgan: “Avoid bottom fishing”

• JP Morgan has retained an ‘Overweight’ rating with a price target of ₹7,550, implying big upside from current levels. ^[29]
• But it has very publicly advised investors to “avoid bottom fishing”, citing unresolved questions around cash flows, working capital and revenue growth outside the smart meter business. ^[30]

4.2 Investec: ‘Sell’ on balance‑sheet risk & valuation

• Investec remains one of the most cautious voices, maintaining a ‘Sell’ rating with a target price of ₹5,760. ^[31]
• Its concerns focus on:
  • Weakness in the core EMS / base business, with growth heavily skewed to Iskraemeco.
  • Working capital deterioration, including debtors that have nearly doubled between FY25 and H1 FY26 and a sizeable ₹55‑crore provision for doubtful debts.
  • Limited actual capex deployed so far into OSAT and PCB relative to the ambitious narrative. ^[32]

4.3 Other broker views

Despite the sell‑off, several domestic and global brokerages remain structurally bullish:

• Nomura: Maintains a Buy with a target price of ₹8,478, even after a ~24.5% correction from the October peak. It highlights strong order visibility, capex‑led expansion, and growth legs across EV, smart meters, aerospace and OSAT, while acknowledging near‑term volatility. ^[33]
• Jefferies:
  • Recently raised its target to ₹7,780 (from ₹7,600), reiterating Buy. ^[34]
  • Projects a 51% EPS CAGR between FY25–FY28 and notes that profit in the September quarter more than doubled YoY, albeit with working capital days stretched to 116 vs 108 a year ago. ^[35]
• ICICI Direct & Motilal Oswal: Recent reports emphasise “robust growth ahead aided by OSAT and PCB” and “execution strength driving record growth”, with targets in the ₹8,200–₹8,900 band, though these were published before the latest crash and governance storm. ^[36]
• ICICI Securities (separate from ICICI Direct) takes a somewhat middle view, suggesting the RPT disclosure gaps may largely be clerical rather than indicative of deeper fraud, while still flagging the need for better working‑capital management. ^[37]

5. Fundamentals: Q2 FY26 was objectively strong

The irony is that the fundamental numbers look excellent, which is partly why the governance debate matters so much — the bar is high.

From the company’s Q2 FY26 results, press release, and earnings call: ^[38]

• Revenue: ₹9,062 million (₹906.2 crore), +58% YoY and +34% QoQ.
• EBITDA: ₹1,480 million, +80% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding to 16.3% (up 190 bps YoY).
• PAT: ₹1,214 million, +102% YoY, with PAT margin at 13.4% (up 290 bps YoY).
• H1 FY26: Revenue +47% YoY to ₹1,579.7 crore; operational EBITDA +75% YoY, margin 16.5%; PAT ₹196 crore (margin 12.4%). ^[39]
• Order book:₹80,994 million (~₹8,099 crore) as of 30 September 2025, up from ₹54,228 million a year earlier — a 49% YoY jump in visibility. ^[40]

Several result analyses (ICICI Direct, MarketsMojo, Trade Brains and others) describe the performance as “stellar”, highlighting:

• Strong order‑book execution
• Margin expansion driven by mix improvement and operating leverage
• A relatively comfortable leverage profile, with net debt‑to‑equity around 0.1–0.2x depending on how unused IPO / QIP proceeds are adjusted. ^[41]

This is what makes the stock fascinating: the P&L and order book look like a high‑growth compounder, while balance‑sheet clarity and disclosures are under question.

6. Growth engine: OSAT, PCBs and a ₹4,995‑crore Tamil Nadu bet

Beyond the quarterly numbers, Kaynes is positioned at the heart of India’s electronics & semiconductor push.

6.1 OSAT: India’s first commercial multi‑chip module

Through its subsidiary Kaynes Semicon, the company has:

• Rolled out India’s first commercially packaged multi‑chip module (MCM) from its OSAT facility at Sanand, Gujarat. ^[42]
• Shipped an initial lot of 900 intelligent power modules (IPMs) to US‑based Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (AOS), under a long‑term agreement that requires supply of 10 million chips annually for five years. ^[43]
• Targeted full mass production from January 2026, with plans to ramp up to about 1.5 million chips per day by Q1 FY27, and ultimate facility capacity of 6.3 million chips per day. ^[44]

Jefferies estimates OSAT could deliver ₹3,500 crore (₹35 billion) of annual sales by FY2030, if all goes according to plan. ^[45]

6.2 PCB & components: ₹4,995‑crore Tamil Nadu project

On the PCB and component side, Kaynes Circuits (a subsidiary) has committed to:

• Invest about ₹4,995 crore (~₹49.95 billion) over six years in Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu, to set up a large electronic components and advanced PCB manufacturing facility. ^[46]
• The facility will focus on 74‑layer and HDI (high‑density interconnect) PCBs, flexible PCBs, high‑performance laminates, camera module assemblies and wire‑harness assemblies, supporting both domestic and export demand. ^[47]

The MoU for this investment briefly pushed the stock up about 3.5% to ₹6,515 when it was announced earlier this year, before the later governance storm reversed sentiment. ^[48]

6.3 Strategic alliances & India Semiconductor Mission

Kaynes is also part of a broader ecosystem play:

• It has joined 3rdiTech and SPARSHIQ, along with partners like NXP and others, in an MoU aimed at strengthening India’s semiconductor and vision systems ecosystem, signed during SEMICON India. ^[49]
• Through Kaynes Semicon, it is recognised as India’s first advanced OSAT and module manufacturer, directly plugged into the India Semiconductor Mission. ^[50]

In short, if you drew a Venn diagram of Make in India, semiconductors, EVs and smart meters, Kaynes sits where the circles overlap — which is exactly why the market cared so much about this stock in the first place.

7. What do consensus forecasts say now?

Despite the recent crash, consensus Street forecasts remain bullish on the long‑term trajectory, though with growing dispersion between the most optimistic and most cautious houses.

7.1 Consensus price targets & ratings

According to Investing.com’s compilation of 21 analysts: ^[51]

• Consensus rating:Buy (11 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell).
• Average 12‑month target:₹6,953.
• High estimate:₹8,478 (Nomura).
• Low estimate:₹5,703 (one of the more cautious brokerages).
• Implied upside: roughly +68% from the reference price in their dataset (~₹4,144).

Other published targets:

• Jefferies: ₹7,780 (Buy), expecting 51% EPS CAGR FY25–FY28 and large OSAT/PCB contribution over time. ^[52]
• JPMorgan: ₹7,550 (Overweight) but with a “stay cautious” message until at least Q3 results confirm cash‑flow delivery. ^[53]
• Nomura: ₹8,478 (Buy), seeing about 46–47% upside from late‑November levels and emphasising order visibility and capex‑driven growth. ^[54]
• Investec: ₹5,760 (Sell), arguing that a 55x FY27E P/E on its estimates is still too rich given balance‑sheet stress and base business weakness. ^[55]
• Domestic research (ICICI Direct, Motilal Oswal, PL, etc.): multiple pre‑correction reports with targets from ₹6,300 to ₹8,900, built on assumptions of continued 30–60% revenue growth and margins trending toward 17% by FY26. ^[56]

TradingView’s aggregated forecast shows a similar picture: average target around ₹7,025, with a band between ₹5,703 and ₹8,478, and an overall ‘Buy’ stance. ^[57]

In short: fundamental/earnings models have not yet caught up with the sharp de‑rating in the share price, but that gap exists because the debate is now as much about governance and cash flows as it is about growth.

8. Key risks and variables investors are watching

Analysts and market participants, pro‑ and anti‑Kaynes, are broadly circling around the same set of questions:

1. Disclosure & governance clean‑up
   • Does management follow through on its promise to improve the clarity and timeliness of related‑party and acquisition‑related disclosures?
   • Do auditors, regulators or exchanges seek further clarification or action, or does the issue fade after Q3/Q4 if numbers and cash flows line up with guidance? ^[58]
2. Cash flow vs accounting earnings
   • Brokerages like JP Morgan and Investec are particularly focused on whether operating cash flow starts tracking profit, especially as receivables, provisions and deferred Iskraemeco receivables are worked through. ^[59]
3. Working capital discipline
   • Management has previously guided to bringing working capital days down by FY26, including via receivable discounting; that promise is now under the microscope. ^[60]
4. Execution of OSAT/PCB capex
   • The multi‑billion‑rupee capex programme in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu is capital‑intensive. The Street will watch for project timelines, customer ramp‑up and return ratios, especially as OSAT and PCB move from PowerPoint to P&L. ^[61]
5. Valuation reset
   • Even after the fall, some houses still see Kaynes trading on elevated P/E multiples versus EMS peers, especially when adjusting for working‑capital intensity. Others argue that a high‑growth, capital‑heavy semicon story deserves a premium — if trust in the numbers is restored. ^[62]

9. Bottom line: High‑growth story, credibility test

As of 8 December 2025, Kaynes Technology sits at a crossroads:

• On one side is a compelling growth and policy story:
  • 50–60% revenue growth, expanding margins, and a near ₹8,100‑crore order book. ^[63]
  • First‑mover advantage in advanced OSAT and multi‑chip modules for global clients, plus large PCB and component capacity under ‘Make in India’. ^[64]
• On the other side is a credibility and balance‑sheet debate:
  • “Inadvertent” non‑disclosure of related‑party transactions, high contingent liabilities, and aggressive capitalisation have rattled investors, triggering a 40‑plus‑percent drawdown in under two months. ^[65]

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