Adani Power Limited (APL) is back in the spotlight on 8 December 2025 as the stock trades lower intraday even while the company outlines one of the most aggressive thermal power expansion plans India has ever seen. Brokerages remain broadly bullish, but valuation models and some technical indicators are flashing caution.
This article pulls together all the major news, forecasts and analyses currently available as of 8 December 2025 to give a structured view of where Adani Power stands now and what could drive the stock next.
Adani Power share price today: how the stock is trading
On 8 December 2025, Adani Power shares are trading around ₹140–142 on the NSE/BSE, down roughly 2–3% versus the previous close. Live market trackers such as Mint, Economic Times and Business Standard show the stock in the red through the session, mirroring broader weakness in power and mid-cap names. [1]
Key snapshot (intraday data around late morning/early afternoon, 8 December 2025): [2]
- Last traded zone: ~₹140–142
- Previous close: ~₹143–144
- Day’s range: roughly ₹139.5 – ₹145.2
- 52-week range: ₹89 – ₹182.7
- Market cap: ~₹2.77 lakh crore
- Valuations (TTM):
- P/E: ~23.5 vs industry P/E ~27.9
- P/B: ~4.7–4.9
- ROE: ~26.8%; ROCE: ~21.8
- Beta (1 year): ~1.26 (more volatile than the market)
Despite the pullback over the last month (approx. –4%), Adani Power remains a long-term multibagger: 1‑year returns are around +34%, 3‑year around +122%, and 5‑year returns above +1,200%. [3]
Why Adani Power is in the news on 8 December 2025
24 GW thermal expansion and ₹2 lakh crore capex plan
The big story today is not a fresh result, but the sheer scale of Adani Power’s expansion roadmap, highlighted in multiple “stocks to watch” notes for 8 December.
A Financial Express market wrap on “Stocks to watch on December 08, 2025” singles out Adani Power for its aggressive thermal push: [4]
- The company plans to add nearly 24 GW of thermal capacity by FY32.
- That is roughly 30% of all thermal capacity India plans to add over the same period.
- Adani Power has earmarked ₹2 lakh crore (₹2 trillion) of capex for this programme, described as “the largest private sector capex in the space.”
- Targeted thermal capacity by FY32:41.87 GW, up from 18.15 GW now.
This expansion intent echoes earlier company announcements and project wins, but the FE article brings the whole picture into focus for traders scanning Monday’s news-flow. [5]
Recent fundamentals: Q2 FY26 results and operating performance
Adani Power’s latest reported quarter is Q2 FY26 (quarter ended 30 September 2025). The company’s own media release and brokerage summaries show a picture of stable revenue and EBITDA, but profit moderation as one-off regulatory tailwinds fade and costs rise. [6]
Headline Q2 FY26 numbers (consolidated)
- Total reported revenue: ₹14,307.8 crore (vs ₹14,062.8 crore in Q2 FY25; +1.7% YoY)
- Continuing revenue from operations: ₹13,106.3 crore (vs ₹12,949.1 crore; +1.2% YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹6,001 crore (virtually flat vs ₹6,000 crore YoY)
- PAT: ₹2,906.5 crore (vs ₹3,297.5 crore; –11.9% YoY)
- EPS: ₹1.53 (face value ₹2; restated post share split in September 2025)
Operational metrics: [7]
- Installed capacity: 18,150 MW (up from 17,550 MW a year ago, post the Vidarbha acquisition)
- Plant Load Factor (PLF): 62.8% vs 66.9% (reflecting weaker demand, higher monsoon and maintenance)
- Units sold: 23.7 BU vs 22.0 BU (+7.4% YoY)
- Merchant/short-term volume: 5.7 BU vs 5.0 BU (+12.9% YoY)
Financial commentary from the company: [8]
- Revenue growth was volume‑driven, partially offset by lower realisations due to softer international coal prices and merchant tariffs.
- EBITDA stayed stable despite added operating expenses from recently acquired plants and planned overhauls.
- PAT fell largely because of higher depreciation and tax charges, not because the core business is collapsing.
- Net debt increased to ~₹36,776 crore as of 30 September 2025 (from ~₹31,023 crore at 31 March 2025), mainly due to bridge funding for capex and higher working capital needs as the portfolio scales up.
ESG and governance markers
The same release also emphasises improved ESG scores: [9]
- Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating: 29.2 (“Medium Risk”), better than the global electric utility average (36.9) and improved from a “High Risk” score of 33.14 in July 2023.
- CSR Hub ESG rating: 77% vs global industry average of 51%.
That doesn’t remove climate/coal concerns (we’ll come back to that), but it shows the group is paying attention to disclosure and process.
Project pipeline: PPAs, acquisitions and mega new plants
The expansion story behind the share price is anchored in specific projects and acquisitions that have been locked in over the last 12–18 months.
New long-term PPAs and LoAs
From the Q2 FY26 release and subsequent media notes, Adani Power has secured a string of long‑term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and Letters of Award (LoAs): [10]
- Bihar DISCOMs:
- Won a tender to supply 2,274 MW at a tariff of ₹6.075 per kWh from a 2,400 MW greenfield ultra‑supercritical (USC) plant to be built at Pirpainti, Bhagalpur.
- The plant (3×800 MW) will be developed under a DBFOO model with an estimated investment of ~$3 billion, with units commissioned 48–60 months after the appointed date. [11]
- Madhya Pradesh (MPPMCL):
- LoA for 1,600 MW of capacity from a new thermal project in MP (part of the Q2 highlights). [12]
- Karnataka DISCOM:
- Around 570 MW secured via long-term arrangements (linked to hydro assets being developed in partnership with Druk Green Power for Bhutan, with offtake in India). [13]
In its Q2 synopsis, the company notes that it has added 4.5 GW of new PPAs (2,400 MW Bihar + 1,600 MW MP + 570 MW Karnataka) by October 2025, locking in long-term visibility on a large chunk of upcoming capacity. [14]
Assam: ₹63,000 crore investment, 3,200 MW USC plant
On 14 November 2025, Adani Group announced that two portfolio companies—Adani Power and Adani Green Energy—have received LoAs from the Assam government for two large energy projects: [15]
- Adani Power: to invest ~₹48,000 crore in a 3,200 MW greenfield ultra‑supercritical coal plant in Assam.
- Adani Green Energy: to invest ~₹15,000 crore in two pumped storage projects totalling 2,700 MW.
- Combined investment: ~₹63,000 crore, with expected employment for ~30,000 people during the project phase.
A BSE‑filed media release confirms these numbers and makes clear that Adani Power’s Assam plant is a core plank of its expansion to the North‑East. [16]
Acquisitions and coal mine integration
The company has also been using acquisitions and captive coal to firm up its base: [17]
- Vidarbha Industries Power Limited (VIPL) – 600 MW coal‑based plant acquired under the insolvency process for ~₹4,000 crore; NCLT approval came on 18 June 2025, and the acquisition closed in early July. This lifted operating capacity from 17,550 MW to 18,150 MW. [18]
- Dhirauli coal mine (Madhya Pradesh) – Adani Power received approval to commence operations at the Dhirauli mine in September 2025, supporting fuel security for its central India portfolio. [19]
Taken together, these contracts and assets sketch the pathway to ~42 GW thermal capacity by FY32, which underpins both the bullish broker forecasts and the concerns about capital intensity and coal exposure.
Regulatory overhang: Uttar Pradesh PPA delay
The expansion masterplan is not risk‑free. One of the more important recent developments is a regulatory delay in Uttar Pradesh.
On 19 November 2025, Reuters reported that the Uttar Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (UPERC) has deferred approval of a power supply agreement with Adani’s new $2 billion coal plant in UP because of a lack of clarity around costs. [20]
Key points from the order and reporting: [21]
- Adani Power had, in May, won a contract to supply 1,500 MW from a proposed coal plant at a tariff of ₹5.38/unit.
- After the central government relaxed rules requiring some coal plants to install sulphur‑dioxide scrubbers, the economics of the project improved—but the state utility did not submit a revised cost analysis to the regulator.
- UPERC has asked the utility to bring Adani Power into the case and file detailed cost and savings estimates within two weeks.
- The matter has been listed for a hearing on 18 December 2025.
This is a reminder that regulatory and policy risk remains central to Adani Power’s investment case: even when PPAs are “won”, the fine print around environmental norms, taxes and pass‑through rules can shift payoffs significantly.
How analysts and valuation models see Adani Power now
On 8 December 2025, there is a striking divergence between sell‑side analyst recommendations (mostly bullish) and valuation/technical models (more cautious).
Street consensus: strong buy, 25–30% upside
Several aggregator platforms capture updated consensus as of early December:
- INDmoney (S&P Global data):
- 4 analysts, 100% “BUY” rating.
- Average target price: ₹187.75
- Target range: ₹184 – ₹195
- Implied upside vs ~₹140 current price: ~30–31%. [22]
- TradingView analyst forecast:
- 5 analysts over the past 3 months.
- Average 1‑year price target:₹176.16
- Range: ₹129.80 – ₹195.00
- Overall rating classified as “Strong Buy.” [23]
- Nasdaq / Fintel commentary (16 November 2025):
- Average 1‑year price target revised up 20.76% to ₹176.96, from ₹146.54 earlier.
- Target range: ₹139.37 – ₹196.34.
- Also notes that around 94 institutional funds currently report positions in Adani Power, though total institutional shareholding has dipped slightly in the latest quarter. [24]
These numbers differ slightly because of data sources and the recent stock split (older reports still reference pre‑split prices), but the directional message is consistent: brokerage analysts see meaningful upside from current levels.
High‑profile call: Morgan Stanley’s Overweight and ₹185 target
In early November 2025, Business Standard reported that Morgan Stanley has reiterated an “Overweight” rating on Adani Power and raised its base‑case target to ₹185, with a bull‑case target of ₹240 and bear‑case of ₹107. [25]
Morgan Stanley’s thesis, in summary: [26]
- Coal‑based power will remain crucial for India’s evening peak demand and energy security, even as renewables grow.
- Adani Power is India’s largest independent power producer (IPP) with around 8% market share in coal capacity and generation.
- The brokerage expects Adani Power’s market share to rise to ~15% by FY32 as its portfolio reaches ~41.9 GW (2.5× FY25 levels).
- The firm cites:
- A strong PPA pipeline and win rates in recent bids.
- A relatively clean balance sheet that can support capex compared to many peers.
- Resolution of most large regulatory disputes and receivable overhangs.
The same article notes that technical charts suggest potential upside towards ₹200 in a favourable scenario, with important supports around ₹147–135 and resistance near ₹166–190. [27]
Valuation models: “fundamentals strong, but overvalued”
In contrast to the bullish Street targets, at least one fundamental analytics site calls Adani Power overvalued at current prices:
- Smart‑Investing.in (intrinsic value and ratio analytics) notes the following as of 5 December 2025: [28]
- Fundamentals are labelled “Strong” and the stock is described as potentially good for long‑term investors on that basis alone.
- However, the estimated intrinsic value based on multiple historical valuation models is around ₹57.74 per share, versus a market price in the mid‑140s—i.e. the stock trades at a ~149% premium to this fair value estimate.
- P/B ratio is about 4.9, and debt‑to‑equity has improved over the last 3 years to around 0.9–1.0 on a consolidated basis.
- Promoter pledged shares are a low 1.81% as of September 2025.
Their conclusion: Adani Power is “Over Valued” at current levels and “may not be a good buying opportunity” purely on valuation grounds, though they stress this is not a recommendation and investors must do their own research. [29]
Technical and short‑term signals: mixed to negative
Short‑term trading models are notably more cautious than fundamental analysts:
- StockInvest.us (technical system): based on the 5 December close, the site categorises Adani Power as a near‑term “sell candidate”, noting that: [30]
- The stock has fallen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, though the total decline is modest (~3–4%).
- The price has broken a short‑term support trend, and is in a wide falling channel, implying elevated risk.
- Their expected intraday trading range for 8 December was ~₹140.9–146.7, which is broadly where the stock is indeed moving.
- INDmoney’s technical dashboard currently tags Adani Power as “Bearish” from a chart‑based perspective, even as the same platform’s analyst consensus is bullish. [31]
So the broad picture:
- Sell‑side analysts: Strong buy, ~25–30% upside over 12 months.
- Quant/valuation models: Overvalued vs intrinsic value; caution on near‑term charts.
That tension is precisely what makes the stock interesting—and risky—at current levels.
Key risk–reward drivers going forward
1. Execution of the 24 GW expansion
The proposed 24 GW thermal capacity addition by FY32 is enormous. The risks and opportunities here include: [32]
- Capex discipline: ₹2 lakh crore of planned spending will test capital allocation, project management and debt discipline. Cost overruns could quickly eat into returns.
- PPA mix: Profitability hinges on locking in long‑term PPAs with cost‑pass‑through structures rather than relying excessively on volatile merchant sales.
- Timeline risk: Delays in environmental clearances, land acquisition, coal linkages or regulatory approvals (as seen in Uttar Pradesh) could slow commissioning and weigh on sentiment.
2. Regulatory and policy environment
Regulation is a double‑edged sword for Adani Power: [33]
- On the positive side, India’s focus on energy security and peak demand means policymakers are still signing long‑term thermal contracts despite record renewable additions.
- On the risk side:
- Changing rules around emissions (e.g., SO₂ scrubber requirements) and coal taxation can alter project economics.
- State regulators are increasingly sensitive to tariff fairness, as seen with the UPERC’s delay of the Uttar Pradesh PPA.
- Any renewed scrutiny of group governance or related‑party structures can spill over into the stock, as past episodes have shown.
3. Coal, climate and ESG perceptions
Even with improving ESG scores, Adani Power remains a coal‑heavy utility: [34]
- Global investors are progressively tightening mandates on new coal exposure, which could limit the pool of long‑term capital willing to fund some of these projects at low cost.
- Domestically, however, coal is still framed as an essential bridge fuel for reliability and peak supply.
- Adani is partially offsetting the narrative via:
The net ESG effect for Adani Power’s own equity valuation is likely to remain controversial and cyclical, worsening when global carbon policy tightens, and easing when India’s power shortages or peak‑demand headlines dominate.
4. Balance sheet strength vs growing leverage
For now, Adani Power’s balance sheet looks much healthier than in the pre‑2020 era: debt‑to‑equity is below 1x on a consolidated basis, and interest costs are under control. [37]
But:
- Net debt has already risen by over ₹5,700 crore between March and September 2025 as the company gears up for capex. [38]
- Financing another ₹2 lakh crore of projects will inevitably raise leverage unless backed by large equity inflows, asset monetisation, or strong internal accruals.
Whether the market continues to reward the growth narrative or starts to demand more conservative gearing will be a critical driver of valuation multiples.
So what does all this mean for Adani Power’s stock today?
Putting the moving parts together as of 8 December 2025:
- Price action: Stock is consolidating around ₹140 after a huge multi‑year run, down modestly in the near term but far above its 52‑week low of ₹89. [39]
- Fundamentals: Q2 FY26 shows solid volumes, stable EBITDA and still‑strong profitability, though earnings growth has slowed and PAT fell ~12% YoY. [40]
- Growth story: The company is positioning itself as India’s dominant private base‑load utility, targeting ~42 GW thermal capacity by FY32 through a mix of greenfield USCs, PPAs in Bihar, MP, Assam and acquisitions like VIPL. [41]
- Analyst view: Most brokerages and consensus datasets rate the stock a Buy/Strong Buy, with 1‑year targets clustered in the ₹176–190 range—roughly 25–35% upside from today’s levels. [42]
- Valuation & technicals: Independent valuation tools warn that the stock trades at a large premium to their estimated fair value, and technical systems flag a short‑term downtrend and potential further volatility. [43]
- Risks: Regulatory delays (UP PPA), execution risk on multi‑GW capex, coal and ESG exposure, and rising leverage as the expansion accelerates. [44]
Bottom line (not investment advice, just synthesis)
- If the expansion thesis plays out—projects are delivered on time, PPAs remain viable, India’s power demand keeps rising and regulations stay supportive—then the Street’s bullish targets and Morgan Stanley’s vision of Adani Power as the key beneficiary of India’s next thermal build‑out may prove justified. [45]
- If, however, costs run ahead of tariffs, regulators push back harder, or global sentiment turns sharply against new coal, the premium valuations flagged by intrinsic‑value models could become a vulnerability rather than a badge of confidence. [46]
For anyone tracking Adani Power on 8 December 2025, the stock is no longer just a recovery or deleveraging bet; it has morphed into a high‑stakes, long‑duration growth story in Indian base‑load power—with all the upside and policy risk that implies.
References
1. www.livemint.com, 2. www.indmoney.com, 3. www.indmoney.com, 4. www.financialexpress.com, 5. www.financialexpress.com, 6. www.adani.com, 7. www.adani.com, 8. www.adani.com, 9. www.adani.com, 10. www.adani.com, 11. www.adani.com, 12. www.adani.com, 13. www.adani.com, 14. www.adani.com, 15. www.tribuneindia.com, 16. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 17. www.livemint.com, 18. www.livemint.com, 19. www.adani.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.indmoney.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.business-standard.com, 26. www.business-standard.com, 27. www.business-standard.com, 28. www.smart-investing.in, 29. www.smart-investing.in, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. www.indmoney.com, 32. www.financialexpress.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.adani.com, 35. www.adani.com, 36. www.adani.com, 37. www.smart-investing.in, 38. www.adani.com, 39. www.livemint.com, 40. www.adani.com, 41. www.financialexpress.com, 42. www.indmoney.com, 43. www.smart-investing.in, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.business-standard.com, 46. www.smart-investing.in
