Updated: 8 December 2025
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (LON: VOD, NASDAQ: VOD) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s more surprising comeback stories in European telecoms. After years in the market’s penalty box, the shares have rerated sharply, the dividend is finally growing again, and the group has tightened guidance to the top end of its targets.
At the same time, credit agencies are cautious, one major U.S. data provider now flags the ADR as a “Strong Sell”, and algorithmic models disagree wildly on what happens next. In other words: this is not a dull income stock anymore.
Here’s a deep dive into where Vodafone stands today, what has changed in 2025, and how current forecasts and analyses line up as of 8 December 2025.
Vodafone share price today: strong 12‑month rebound
On the London Stock Exchange, Vodafone closed recently around 93.9p per share, with the latest quotes clustered near 93.92p, implying a market capitalisation of roughly £22–23 billion. [1]
On Nasdaq, the U.S. ADR (ticker VOD) closed at $12.47 on 5 December 2025, close to its 52‑week high of $12.76 and well above the 52‑week low of $8.00. [2]
Based on historical monthly data for the London line, Vodafone’s December 2025 share price (about 93.94p) is roughly 44% higher than December 2024 (about 65.11p). [3] That makes Vodafone one of the stronger large‑cap recoveries in the FTSE universe over the last year, even if the stock is still far below its pre‑2019 levels.
Key snapshot (approximate):
- LSE VOD: 93.9p; 52‑week range 62.4p – 96.3p [4]
- NASDAQ VOD: $12.47; 52‑week range $8.00 – $12.76 [5]
- Dividend yield (forward): around 4–5%, based on consensus and Vodafone’s new progressive policy. [6]
For investors, that combination of a sharp price recovery and a still‑elevated yield is exactly why the stock is now back on radar screens—and why current research is so divided.
H1 FY26 results: revenue growth, higher guidance and a progressive dividend
The turning point for sentiment in 2025 was Vodafone’s H1 FY26 (six months to 30 September 2025) results, published on 11 November. [7]
Headline figures from the half‑year:
- Revenue: up 7.3% to €19.6bn
- Service revenue: up 8.1% (5.7% organically) to €16.3bn
- Adjusted EBITDAaL: up 5.9% to €5.7bn, or 6.8% on an organic basis
- Operating profit: down 9.2% to €2.2bn, mainly due to higher depreciation/amortisation and lower “other income”
- Basic EPS (continuing): 3.38 eurocents, down from 3.92c in H1 FY25 [8]
Crucially for the equity story, Vodafone tightened its full‑year FY26 guidance to the upper end of its previous range:
- Adjusted EBITDAaL (Group): €11.3–11.6bn
- Adjusted free cash flow: €2.4–2.6bn [9]
That stronger cash‑flow confidence underpins two big shareholder‑friendly moves:
- Dividend increase for the first time in years
- Interim dividend held at 2.25 eurocents per share for H1 FY26. [10]
- Management committed to a “progressive dividend policy”, targeting 2.5% growth in the full‑year dividend for FY26 and setting future interim dividends at 50% of the prior full‑year payment. [11]
- This is the first upward move since the company slashed its payout back in 2019, as highlighted by both Reuters and the Financial Times. [12]
- Large share buyback programme
UK investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown summed up the results as “making progress,” noting improved service‑revenue growth, an upgraded outlook and a strengthened balance sheet, but cautioning that telecoms remains a structurally tough, capital‑intensive sector. [15]
Strategic reset: asset sales, the Three UK merger and Zegona repayment
The 2025 numbers sit on top of a much larger restructuring of the group under CEO Margherita Della Valle:
- Exit from Spain and Italy: Vodafone has completed the sales of its Spanish and Italian operations, two structurally difficult markets that dragged on growth and returns. [16]
- Three UK merger: In the UK, Vodafone has merged with rival Three in a £16.5bn deal, creating the country’s largest mobile operator by subscribers and adding scale to justify ongoing 5G and fibre investments. [17]
- Portfolio simplification: The 2025 Annual Report emphasises a push to “right‑size the portfolio for growth,” focusing on Business, Africa and selected investment stakes while leveraging infrastructure and shared services. [18]
A noteworthy recent development is in Spain. Zegona, the new owner of Vodafone España, plans to use proceeds from fibre joint ventures to:
- Pay a special dividend and share buyback, and
- Repay the €975m loan that Vodafone Group originally extended to finance the Spanish acquisition. [19]
That repayment, if approved by Zegona’s shareholders and completed, will further support Vodafone’s deleveraging and capital‑return story.
Africa and Safaricom: deeper exposure to high‑growth markets
While Europe inches along, Vodafone’s African footprint—through Vodacom and other holdings—remains a key growth lever.
In early December, Kenya announced it would sell a 15% stake in Safaricom to Vodacom (a subsidiary of Vodafone), in a deal worth about $1.6bn. [20]
After completion:
- Vodacom’s stake in Safaricom will rise to 55%, giving it effective control of Kenya’s largest listed company and the M‑Pesa mobile money platform. [21]
- The Kenyan government will retain 20% and receive an upfront payment for the rights to dividends on its remaining shares. [22]
For Vodafone Group, this deepens its indirect exposure to:
- High‑growth data usage in East Africa,
- Mobile money and fintech via M‑Pesa, and
- The expansion into Ethiopia, where Safaricom launched services in 2022. [23]
Management also highlights that across Africa the group now has 93.7 million financial services customers, including nearly 13 million Vodafone Cash users in Egypt, with ambitions for double‑digit cash‑profit growth in the region over the next few years. [24]
Satellites and connectivity “from seabed to space”
Another strand of the growth story is Vodafone’s bet on direct‑to‑device satellite connectivity.
In November, Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile announced a new EU satellite constellation and selected Germany as the location for their main Satellite Operations Centre. [25]
Key points from the joint announcement:
- The planned constellation, operated via their Luxembourg‑based JV “SatCo,” will support mobile broadband directly to standard smartphones, aimed at underserved rural areas and emergency services across Europe. [26]
- The system will include a “command switch” architecture to ensure EU oversight and secure control of satellite beams and encryption keys. [27]
- Commercial launch in Europe is targeted from 2026, with mobile operators in 21 EU member states already expressing interest. [28]
While satellite ventures are long‑dated and capital intensive, they reinforce Vodafone’s positioning as an infrastructure‑heavy backbone provider, not just a commodity mobile operator.
Balance sheet, Fitch rating and the e& (Etisalat) stake
Debt and credit rating
Despite buybacks and dividends, Vodafone’s reported net debt at H1 FY26 increased to €25.9bn, up from €22.4bn as at 31 March 2025, reflecting the Three UK consolidation, shareholder returns and free‑cash outflow, partly offset by early bond repayments. [29]
Rating agency Fitch in November affirmed Vodafone’s BBB long‑term issuer rating, but revised the outlook to “Stable” (from Positive), signalling that while leverage is manageable, the path to a higher rating is no longer in sight in the near term. [30]
Fitch’s stance essentially says: the balance sheet looks solid enough for the current rating, but execution risks, competition and capex needs cap how aggressive Vodafone can be with shareholder returns.
e& as a cornerstone shareholder
Another evolving piece of the puzzle is Emirates Telecommunications Group (e&), the UAE operator formerly known as Etisalat:
- e& initially bought a 9.8% stake in Vodafone in May 2022 for about $4.4bn. [31]
- Through ongoing purchases and Vodafone’s buybacks, its stake has gradually increased.
- In a corporate announcement dated 3 December 2025, e& disclosed that its holding in Vodafone had reached 16.6113%. [32]
Vodafone and e& have a formal relationship agreement under which e& is treated as a “cornerstone shareholder,” with strategic co‑operation across Europe, the Middle East and Africa. [33]
For equity holders, e&’s growing stake cuts both ways:
- Positive: a supportive strategic investor, potential for partnerships, and signalling that a sophisticated telecom operator sees value in Vodafone’s assets.
- Caution: ongoing national‑security scrutiny in the UK and Europe, plus the possibility that e&’s objectives (influence, synergies, optionality on control) may diverge from minority shareholders’ priorities. [34]
Valuation today: cheaper than history, but not a screaming bargain
On conventional metrics, Vodafone still looks inexpensive versus its own history, even after the rally:
- Hargreaves Lansdown cites a forward P/E around 10.9x (next 12 months), compared with a 10‑year average of 17.5x.
- The prospective dividend yield is flagged at roughly 4.8%, versus a 10‑year average near 6.7%, reflecting both the rally and the earlier dividend cuts. [35]
Market data from LSE and MarketWatch show:
- Market cap: roughly £22.6bn
- 52‑week share price range: 62.40p – 96.34p
- Beta (vs market): about 0.8, consistent with a defensive sector. [36]
That paints a picture of a stock that:
- Is cheaper than its own long‑term average,
- Offers a respectable but not extreme yield, and
- Has already re‑rated significantly in 2025 on restructuring and guidance upgrades.
What analysts are saying: from “Strong Sell” to cautious “Hold”
There is no consensus narrative around Vodafone right now. Different datasets send very different signals.
UK/European consensus: broadly “Hold”
MarketScreener’s compilation of European analyst estimates for Vodafone (primary listing) shows: [37]
- Mean recommendation: HOLD
- Number of analysts: 17
- Last close (euro‑translated): about €1.087
- Average 12‑month target price: about €1.038, implying low‑single‑digit downside (–3–4%) from current levels
- Target range: high target around €1.61 (+48%) and low target around €0.74 (–32%)
Separately, other consensus snapshots (e.g. TipRanks via recent data) point to:
- Average UK target around 90–100p, modestly below the current ~94p share price
- Rating split roughly between Buy, Hold and Sell, with more neutral than bullish voices. [38]
BofA Securities: Neutral, modest upside
A detailed note on 4 December from BofA Securities raised its target on Vodafone to 98p (from 92p) and kept a Neutral rating. [39]
BofA’s logic:
- Positives:
- “Cleaner operations” after exiting Spain and Italy
- Increased scale and synergies from the Three UK acquisition
- Room to extend the buyback and grow the dividend, thanks to healthy free cash flow
- Concerns:
- Execution and organic growth challenges in Germany and the UK
- Rising pressure from alternative fixed‑line operators in Germany through 2026
- Pricing pressure in the UK, with Vodafone exposed to price‑sensitive customers post‑Three merger
In short, BofA sees the restructuring benefits, but worries that competitive dynamics could offset much of the upside.
Hargreaves Lansdown: “progress, but telecoms are still tough”
HL’s research note after the H1 results, which explicitly carries no formal recommendation, emphasises: [40]
- The return to growth in Germany is a “first baby step”, not yet proof of a sustained turnaround.
- Africa (via Vodacom and mobile money) offers some of the most exciting growth prospects in the group.
- Asset sales and deleveraging have improved the balance sheet and made the dividend more credible, but telecom remains a sector where growth is hard and capex heavy.
That tone—cautiously constructive on the strategy, but realistic about structural headwinds—is broadly representative of many UK brokers.
MarketBeat (U.S.) consensus: “Strong Sell” with anomalous price target
In contrast, U.S. data provider MarketBeat currently shows, for the NASDAQ‑listed ADR: [41]
- Consensus rating: Strong Sell, based on 11 analysts
- 7 Sell
- 3 Hold
- 1 Buy
- Average 12‑month price target: $72.00, which it presents as +477% upside from $12.47 current price
This obviously looks inconsistent: a Strong Sell recommendation paired with an implied five‑bagger upside. The underlying issue almost certainly lies in data normalisation—several analysts publish targets in pence or eurocents, which can be mis‑scaled when converted into U.S. dollar terms and ADR ratios.
The important takeaway isn’t the $72 figure itself (which investors should treat with caution), but the rating mix:
- A meaningful cluster of U.S.‑tracked analysts remains outright negative on Vodafone, flagging persistent structural challenges and limited long‑term growth.
Quant and technical views: short‑term bullish, longer‑term skeptical
Algorithmic and technical‑analysis platforms paint yet another picture.
Intellectia.ai, which combines moving‑average patterns, oscillators and short‑selling data for the ADR, recently concluded: [42]
- Short‑term call: “Strong Buy candidate” for the next days to weeks
- The stock has 3 bullish vs 2 bearish technical signals
- Moving averages (5/20/60/200‑day) are all in bullish alignment
- The trend since early November shows a gain of ~11%, with the price above key support levels
- Medium‑term tone: more Neutral, as some overbought indicators (stochastic oscillators) flash warnings.
- Longer‑term forecast: a decline in VOD’s price by 2026 and further out, with a modelled 2026 average around $9.18 and a 2030 estimate near $6.38, implying negative total price return before dividends.
These model‑based projections are highly sensitive to inputs and are not a substitute for fundamental analysis, but they underscore how time horizon matters:
- Traders focusing on momentum and moving averages see a bullish setup today.
- Longer‑term quant models, looking at historical volatility and mean‑reversion, are more pessimistic.
Income case vs growth case: what’s really driving the stock?
Putting the different strands together, the current Vodafone investment story splits roughly into two angles.
Income and value
For income‑oriented investors, the key points are:
- A restored, now‑growing dividend, guided to rise 2.5% in FY26, after years of cuts and freezes. [43]
- A forward yield around the mid‑4% range, backed by adjusted free‑cash‑flow guidance of €2.4–2.6bn and an investment‑grade balance sheet. [44]
- Valuation still below the 10‑year average P/E, even after a 40‑plus‑percent share‑price rebound. [45]
On this view, Vodafone is primarily a defensive income stock where the dividend and buybacks provide a floor, provided management avoids major missteps.
Restructuring and optionality
For investors looking for capital gains or “special situations,” the appeal lies more in:
- The clean‑up of the portfolio (Spain & Italy sold) and the potential to extract synergies from the Three UK merger. [46]
- African growth (data and fintech) via Safaricom and Vodacom, particularly if controlling stakes can unlock more upstream cash. [47]
- Possible strategic moves involving e&, whose growing 16.6% stake and relationship agreement give it a pivotal role in Vodafone’s future. [48]
- Optional upside from satellite‑based connectivity with AST SpaceMobile, if the technology scales and regulatory approvals cooperate. [49]
This is more speculative: it depends on execution, regulation and competitive dynamics, rather than just clipping coupons.
Key risks investors are watching
Despite improving headlines, the bear case is not hard to articulate.
- Germany execution risk
- Germany is still Vodafone’s largest market, and while service revenue has finally returned to slight growth in Q2 FY26, it follows years of regulatory changes and customer churn after TV‑subscription rule changes. [50]
- BofA and others highlight growing fixed‑line competition from alternative fibre players through 2026. [51]
- UK price pressure
- The Three merger gives scale, but also exposes Vodafone to regulatory scrutiny and intense price competition, particularly among value‑conscious customers. [52]
- Capital intensity and 5G/fibre spending
- Telecoms remain structurally capital intensive. Even with asset sales, Vodafone must keep investing heavily in 5G, fibre and now potentially satellite capacity. That constrains how far buybacks and dividends can go without re‑leveraging.
- Debt and interest‑rate environment
- Net debt of ~€26bn at BBB with a Stable outlook is manageable but not trivial. A weaker macro environment or higher‑for‑longer rates would crimp free cash flow and possibly force a rethink of shareholder returns. [53]
- Governance and geopolitics
- e&’s 16.6% stake raises political and regulatory questions, especially in the UK, where foreign ownership in critical infrastructure is closely scrutinised. [54]
- Data‑driven scepticism
- The cluster of Sell ratings in the MarketBeat dataset, and some longer‑term quant models projecting weaker prices in 2026 and beyond, show that a sizeable part of the analyst community still doubts the durability of Vodafone’s turnaround. [55]
Bottom line: a more interesting stock, not a solved puzzle
As of 8 December 2025, Vodafone is no longer the “fallen income giant” it was a few years ago, but it’s not a simple growth story either.
- The dividend is growing again, and guidance is at the top end of expectations.
- The share price has rallied about 40–45% over twelve months, yet valuation remains below long‑term averages.
- Strategic moves—Spain and Italy exits, Three UK merger, Safaricom control, satellite JV, and a cornerstone shareholder in e&—have made the equity story far more dynamic. [56]
At the same time:
- Credit agencies are cautious, not euphoric.
- A high‑profile U.S. dataset flags a Strong Sell consensus for the ADR, even if some of its price‑target maths look suspect. [57]
- Quant models split sharply between short‑term technical strength and long‑term price‑pressure expectations. [58]
For readers, the key is to match the time horizon and risk tolerance to the part of the story that matters most to them:
- Income‑focused investors will care primarily about dividend sustainability, credit strength and regulatory risk.
- Total‑return or event‑driven investors will focus more on execution in Germany and the UK, African growth, potential strategic moves with e&, and the optionality around satellites and further asset reshaping.
Either way, Vodafone has moved from being a sleepy, yield‑only name to a complex, restructuring‑heavy telecom with genuine strategic moving parts. That complexity is exactly why current news, forecasts and analyses—from London brokers to U.S. aggregators and quant platforms—are so sharply divided.
References
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