Experian PLC (LON: EXPN) Stock on 8 December 2025: Price, Guidance Upgrade and Analyst Forecasts Into 2026

Experian PLC stock enters the second week of December trading just above £33 a share, against a backdrop of upgraded guidance, accelerating earnings and a sharply divided analyst community on how much upside is left.

As of the close on Friday 5 December, Experian shares finished at 3,324 pence on the London Stock Exchange, up 0.27% on the day and sitting in a 52‑week range of 3,049p to 4,101p. That price gives the credit‑data and analytics group a market capitalisation of roughly £30–33 billion, depending on the data provider and FX assumptions. ^[1]

At this level Experian trades on a trailing price/earnings ratio of about 30x and offers a forward dividend yield around 2%, based on a dividend per share of roughly 65p. That puts the stock at a premium to the wider FTSE 100, which itself is enjoying a strong year with a 22.8% total return in 2025 to 1 December, according to AJ Bell data cited by MoneyWeek. ^[2] Yet Experian shares are modestly negative year‑to‑date, underperforming the UK benchmark despite solid operating results. ^[3]

Financial performance: strong FY25 and an upbeat first half for FY26

Experian’s recent share price is anchored by a run of robust results.

For the financial year ended 31 March 2025 (FY25), Experian reported:

Revenue from ongoing activities of $7.51 billion, up 8% at constant currency and 7% at actual rates.
Organic revenue growth of 7%, with similar growth in the fourth quarter, indicating good momentum into FY26.
Benchmark EBIT (a non‑GAAP operating profit measure) up 11% at constant exchange rates, with margin expanding by around 50–70 basis points, above management’s target range.
Benchmark EPS up 11% at constant currency and 8% at actual rates, with the total dividend lifted 7% to 62.5 US cents. ^[4]

Growth in FY25 was broad‑based: Experian’s Consumer Services division delivered organic revenue growth of 7%, while Business‑to‑Business (B2B) activities grew 6%, supported by analytics, identity and fraud products and verticals such as automotive and health. ^[5] All geographic regions contributed positively, with North America still the largest profit engine.

H1 FY26: revenue acceleration and upgraded guidance

Momentum improved further in the first half of the current financial year (six months to 30 September 2025):

Total revenue from ongoing activities rose 13% at actual rates and 12% at constant currency, to $4,058m.
Organic revenue growth came in at 8%, comfortably within the company’s medium‑term ambition of 6–8%.
Benchmark EBIT increased 14%, while margin expanded by 50 basis points at constant rates.
Benchmark EPS grew 12% at actual rates in US dollars.
The interim dividend was raised 10% to 21.25 US cents. ^[6]

Management highlighted strong consumer subscription growth, ongoing expansion of decisioning and analytics platforms, and the use of AI‑driven automation to improve both client outcomes and internal efficiency. ^[7]

The first‑quarter trading update (quarter to 30 June 2025) already flagged this trend, with 12% total revenue growth at constant currency and 8% organic growth, including 9% organic growth in North America and 5% in Latin America. ^[8]

On 12 November, after publishing the H1 numbers, Experian tightened and effectively raised its FY26 guidance, saying it now expects:

Total revenue growth of about 11%, and
Organic revenue growth around 8%,
with margin accretion of 30–50 basis points, all at constant currency and from ongoing activities. ^[9]

That compares to the earlier FY26 outlook given alongside FY25 results of 9–11% total revenue growth and 6–8% organic growth. The upgrade confirms that the business is currently tracking at the upper end of its medium‑term framework of 6–8% annual organic growth. ^[10]

Dividend profile and capital returns: steady growth plus buybacks

Experian has an established record of returning cash to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases.

According to dividend data from Digrin, the company has paid dividends for 19 consecutive years, with a three‑year dividend growth rate of about 14.4% and a ten‑year rate of nearly 11.7%. The most recent payment was a final dividend of 32.60p per share, with a forward dividend yield estimated at 1.9–2.0% at current prices.

In June 2025 Experian announced a share repurchase programme, and it has been steadily buying back stock since. For example, on 27 November 2025 the company repurchased 19,000 shares at prices between 3,300p and 3,332p, at a weighted average of 3,322.23p. Regular buyback transactions in August–November indicate management’s willingness to support the share price and reduce share count over time.

Where Experian PLC stock trades now: price, valuation and performance

Across several data providers, the picture of Experian’s current valuation is consistent:

Last close (5 December 2025): 3,324p.
52‑week range: 3,049p–4,101p, putting the stock roughly 19% below its 52‑week high.
Market capitalisation: around £30–33bn, depending on methodology. ^[11]
Trailing P/E: about 30x, using EPS data from Digrin.

AI‑driven analytics platform Danelfin currently assigns Experian an AI Score of 7/10, categorising the stock as a “Buy” based on an estimated 59.3% probability of outperforming the STOXX 600 over the next three months, versus an average of 49.4% for European stocks. ^[12] Danelfin shows:

Fundamental score: 4/10 (mid‑range),
Technical score: 7/10,
Sentiment score: 4/10,
Risk score: 9/10 (labelled “Low Risk”),
With the share price at 3,325p, dividend yield about 1.26%, and market cap £33.48bn as of 6 December 2025. ^[13]

On the dividend‑focused platform Digrin, Experian is shown at 3,324p, a dividend yield of 1.42% on a trailing basis and 1.96% forward, and a P/E ratio of 29.95.

Analyst forecasts: consensus bullish, but with a notable bear

UK‑listed shares (EXPN)

On the London‑listed stock (LON: EXPN), most brokers remain positive.

MarketBeat’s latest forecast page, updated on 5 December, reports:

An average 12‑month price target of 4,300.5p,
A high target of 4,600p and a low of 4,102p,
Implied upside of roughly 29% from a spot price of 3,324p, and
A consensus rating of “Moderate Buy”, with five Buy ratings and one Hold across six analysts. ^[14]

The Financial Times’ analyst survey is even more optimistic, listing 15 analysts with:

A median target of about 4,507p,
A high of 5,559p and a low of 3,055p,
With the median implying roughly 36% upside from recent prices. ^[15]

Directorstalk’s sector analysis, published 24 November, collates 17 ratings: 15 Buy, one Hold and one Sell. It finds an average target of 4,387.76p, suggesting around 31% potential upside and positioning Experian as an attractive growth name in the “consulting services” sub‑sector. ^[16]

US ADRs (EXPGF / EXPGY)

For US investors holding the over‑the‑counter ADRs, the message is similar. MarketWatch data for EXPGF show a median 12‑month target price of about $59.09, with a high of $72.88 and a low of $41.57, compared with a recent price in the mid‑$40s. ^[17] Zacks reports a single analyst target of $62 versus a last close near $43.66, implying around 40% upside. ^[18]

Bernstein’s underperform call

The main dissenting voice in the analyst community comes from Bernstein. In an October note, the firm reiterated its “Underperform” rating on Experian with a price target of £30.50 (3,050p). ^[19]

Bernstein argues that:

Experian and other credit bureaus face industry headwinds, including pricing and competitive pressure in scoring and data services, and
Organic growth could undershoot market expectations by about three percentage points in FY27. ^[20]

The broker also flags Experian’s high valuation multiples, citing a P/E ratio in the mid‑30s on some US‑listed comparables, and looks back to the period following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, when Experian’s US bureau organic growth briefly slowed to 2%. ^[21]

In other words, while most brokers see Experian as a high‑quality compounder with 30–35% upside over 12 months, at least one influential firm thinks the stock is expensive given cyclical and structural risks.

Intrinsic value and fair‑value models

Beyond broker targets, valuation models offer a more mechanistic view.

A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) analysis on Yahoo Finance, published within the last 24 hours, estimates Experian’s “fair value” at about £35.99 per share versus a market price of roughly £33.24. ^[22] That suggests the stock may be trading at a modest 8% discount to that model’s estimate of intrinsic value.

DCF outputs are highly sensitive to growth and discount‑rate assumptions, but it is notable that this independent model broadly aligns with the 6–8% organic growth and steady margin expansion signalled by management and by Reuters’ coverage of the FY25 results. ^[23]

AI‑based probability models like Danelfin’s, while focused on near‑term relative performance rather than absolute value, also point to above‑average odds of outperformance versus European equity benchmarks over the next quarter. ^[24]

Technical picture: short‑term downtrend despite Friday’s bounce

From a purely technical standpoint, Experian’s chart looks less straightforward than its income statement.

StockInvest, which combines price action with statistical models, labels Experian on 5 December as a “Hold candidate”. The platform notes that:

The share price gained 0.27% on Friday, moving from 3,315p to 3,324p,
Intraday trading ranged between 3,311p and 3,353p, a 1.27% swing, and
Volume increased on the up‑day, which is normally a constructive short‑term signal.

However, StockInvest also stresses that the stock remains in the middle of a falling short‑term trend channel, and its model currently projects a possible 14–15% decline over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly 2,675p and 2,908p if the trend persists.

The site highlights a bullish signal from a recent pivot bottom and from the three‑month MACD, but warns that the longer‑term moving average is above the short‑term one, generating an overall negative technical bias until the price can decisively break back above the long‑term average around 3,430p.

As always with technical models, these are extrapolations of past price behaviour, not predictions of fundamentals. The key takeaway is that short‑term momentum has been soft, even while earnings have progressed.

Industry risks: FICO’s direct‑sale move and evolving credit scoring

One of the biggest thematic headwinds hanging over Experian and its peers is the structural change in how credit scores are distributed and priced, especially in the US mortgage market.

On 2 October, Reuters reported that Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) announced plans to sell its credit scores directly to mortgage lenders and resellers, effectively bypassing credit bureaus such as Experian, Equifax and TransUnion.

Key points from that report:

Shares in Experian and other bureaus fell sharply on the news; Experian dropped about 4% in London trading that day.
Analysts at Raymond James said the move could eliminate the roughly 100% markup that bureaus currently charge on FICO scores.
Jefferies estimated that the new distribution model could reduce bureau earnings by 10–15% on average if fully implemented.

This change comes alongside the ongoing roll‑out of VantageScore, a competing scoring system jointly owned by Experian, Equifax and TransUnion, which has been approved for use in US mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That brings both competition for FICO and new strategic complexity for the bureaus, which now sit on both sides of the scoring landscape.

Taken together, the FICO direct‑sale model and the rise of VantageScore help explain why some analysts, such as Bernstein, worry about long‑term pricing power and organic growth at Experian even as near‑term numbers remain solid.

How Experian is positioned: growth drivers vs uncertainties

Despite these structural questions, Experian enters 2026 with several clear growth levers:

Diversification beyond traditional credit bureaux into areas such as healthcare payments, automotive data, fraud and identity services, and analytics‑as‑a‑service, which management and Reuters have highlighted as supporting growth even when lending volumes are “sideways.”
Consumer Services subscriptions, including credit monitoring and identity protection, which continue to expand in North America and other key markets.
Ongoing investment in AI‑driven decisioning tools, both for lenders (for underwriting and fraud detection) and for consumers (personalised financial insights), referenced in Experian’s commentary around FY25 and H1 FY26.

Against that, investors must weigh:

Regulatory and political risk around the use of personal data, AI and credit scores.
Macro sensitivity: Experian’s revenues are influenced by credit origination volumes, marketing spend and default cycles, even if diversification smooths the impact.
The possibility that evolving business models in credit scoring and data distribution (FICO’s direct sales, VantageScore expansion, new fintech entrants) could compress margins in some segments over time.

Bottom line on 8 December 2025

On the morning of Monday 8 December 2025, Experian PLC stock is sitting close to 3,324p, near the middle of its recent trading range but well below its 2025 high and the average analyst price target.

The fundamental story is straightforward:

Earnings and cash flow are growing at high single‑digit to low double‑digit rates,
Guidance for FY26 has been upgraded to the top end of the company’s range,
Dividends are rising steadily, supplemented by ongoing share buybacks, and
Most covering analysts and several AI‑based models see meaningful upside over the next year.

The bear case rests on valuation, competitive dynamics in credit scoring and the possibility that current 6–8% organic growth is not sustainable indefinitely, particularly if FICO’s new distribution strategy and other industry shifts eat into bureau economics.

For now, Experian PLC sits in the uncomfortable but potentially rewarding middle ground: priced as a high‑quality growth compounder, but still trading at a noticeable discount to most analyst and DCF fair‑value estimates, with short‑term technicals that look softer than the income statement.