As of 8 December 2025, National Grid plc’s London‑listed shares are trading close to their 52‑week highs, supported by a powerful combination of regulatory clarity from Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 decision, a record capital investment programme, a 4%‑plus dividend yield, and new AI initiatives to manage wildfire risk. At the same time, investors are digesting today’s scrip dividend election deadline for ADR holders, the implications of the 2024 £7bn rights issue, and a new CEO now in the hot seat. [1]
Key takeaways for National Grid stock on 8 December 2025
- Share price: Around 1,134–1,140p in London, near the upper end of a 909.8p–1,183.5p 52‑week range; ADRs recently around $75 on the NYSE. [2]
- Dividend & scrip: 2025/26 interim dividend of 16.35p per share (about $1.0657 per ADR) with a scrip election deadline today (8 December) for US ADR holders. [3]
- Regulation: Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 Final Determination sets a 6.12% real allowed cost of equity at 60% gearing for UK transmission from 2026–2031, underpinning long‑term returns. [4]
- Growth plan: The group is in the middle of a roughly £60bn five‑year investment programme, partly funded by a £7bn rights issue in 2024 and recent asset sales. [5]
- Valuation: Consensus 12‑month target for LON:NG sits around 1,180p (low‑ to mid‑single‑digit upside), with some models seeing significantly higher intrinsic value but Morningstar calling the shares roughly “fairly valued”. [6]
National Grid share price today and recent performance
On the London Stock Exchange, National Grid (ticker NG.) is quoted around 1,134.5p, down slightly on the day but close to its 52‑week peak near 1,183p. Over the past year the shares have delivered roughly a 23% total return, with an approximately 80% total shareholder return over five years, making National Grid a quiet but notable outperformer in the defensive utilities space. [7]
On the NYSE, the NGG ADR recently traded around $75–76, after a multi‑year run in which US investors increasingly treat the stock as a regulated “energy transition infrastructure” play rather than a traditional value utility. TechStock²
On trailing dividends of roughly 47p per share, the London line currently offers a yield of about 4.1–4.2%, modestly above the broader utilities sector median. TechStock²+1
Dividends, yield – and today’s scrip election deadline
Dividend income remains central to the National Grid investment case.
On 6 November 2025, alongside its half‑year results, the board declared a 2025/26 interim dividend of 16.35p per ordinary share and $1.0657 per ADR. [8]
Key dates for this interim payout are: [9]
- Ex‑dividend date (ordinary shares): 20 November 2025
- Ex‑dividend date (ADRs): 21 November 2025
- Record date: 21 November 2025
- Scrip election deadline (ADRs): 8 December 2025, 5pm EST – today
- Scrip election deadline (ordinary shares): 11 December 2025, 5pm GMT
- Payment date: 13 January 2026
National Grid has set a scrip dividend reference price of 1,130.40p per ordinary share and $74.2334 per ADR for this interim dividend. [10]
The company’s stated policy is to grow the dividend per share in line with UK CPIH inflation over the medium term, supported by targeted 6–8% underlying EPS growth as its regulated asset base expands. [11]
For investors, electing for scrip rather than cash:
- Preserves cash on National Grid’s balance sheet (supporting its capex programme).
- Slightly increases the overall share count, diluting existing holders who do not take scrip.
- May have different tax consequences depending on jurisdiction – something shareholders typically discuss with a tax adviser rather than rely on generic articles for.
RIIO‑T3 and the “biggest grid upgrade in decades”
A major driver of sentiment this week is regulatory clarity.
On 4 December 2025, UK regulator Ofgem published its Final Determination for the RIIO‑T3 price control governing National Grid’s UK electricity transmission business from April 2026 to March 2031. The package includes a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing, a critical parameter for future returns. [12]
National Grid has welcomed Ofgem’s recognition of the need for significant investment to nearly double Britain’s transfer capacity while maintaining high reliability, but it is still reviewing whether the full package is “investable and workable”. A formal response is expected in early March 2026, following consultation on licence modifications and a final licence decision scheduled for February 2026. [13]
Separately, Ofgem last week approved a roughly £28–29bn grid upgrade plan for UK networks, a decision that Reuters notes will support the energy transition but also contribute to upward pressure on household bills; both SSE and National Grid have said they are reviewing the finer detail. [14]
Zooming out, Fitch Ratings describes UK electricity networks as facing an “unprecedented investment surge” under the broader RIIO‑3 transition, a backdrop it links to a neutral credit outlook for UK utilities in 2026 and a continued BBB / Stable rating for National Grid. [15]
NESO’s “zombie projects” clean‑up
On 8 December 2025, Britain’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) – spun out of National Grid’s former ESO – announced it would remove hundreds of stalled or “zombie” generation projects from the connections queue. The aim is to clear a backlog of about 700GW of projects, replacing it with a 283GW pipeline of “shovel‑ready” schemes and helping deliver a near zero‑carbon power system by 2030. [16]
While NESO is legally separate from National Grid plc, the decision is highly relevant for investors:
- It accelerates the Great Grid Upgrade / ASTI projects that National Grid is building to connect new renewable generation and data centres. [17]
- It reinforces the political expectation that transmission owners will deliver large projects quickly, not merely enjoy higher allowed returns.
Half‑year 2025/26 results: record capex and steady EPS growth
National Grid’s 2025/26 half‑year results (for the six months to 30 September 2025) underline why the stock is now treated as a regulated growth story rather than a pure bond proxy. [18]
Headline numbers:
- Underlying operating profit: £2,292m, up 13% year‑on‑year.
- Underlying EPS: 29.8p, up 6%; statutory EPS at 12.6p.
- Capital investment: £5,052m, a record first‑half figure, up 12%.
- Net debt: £41.8bn at 30 September 2025, around £0.5bn higher than at 31 March 2025 despite asset sale proceeds. [19]
Management highlighted:
- Continued build‑out of Wave 1 ASTI projects and the Eastern Green Link 1 & 2 HVDC schemes. [20]
- Progress on London Power Tunnels 2 and major US projects such as Smart Path Connect and the Upstate Upgrade in New York. [21]
- Delivery of £100m in synergies from the acquisition of UK Electricity Distribution six months ahead of target. [22]
The company reaffirmed its medium‑term guidance for 6–8% underlying EPS growth, and research from Morningstar suggests that updated guidance now implies fiscal 2026 EPS of about 78.4p at the midpoint, slightly above prior expectations. [23]
Funding the build‑out: rights issue and portfolio rotation
To support this surge in capital expenditure, National Grid has already reshaped its balance sheet and portfolio.
2024 rights issue
In May 2024, the company launched a fully underwritten £7bn rights issue, offering 7 new shares for every 24 existing shares at 645p, a substantial discount to the then share price. The issue raised approximately £6.8bn net, with about 91% of the new shares taken up by existing shareholders. [24]
The capital raise is an integral part of a planned £60bn investment programme over five years, focused on UK transmission, UK distribution and US networks. [25]
Asset sales and simplification
Alongside equity, National Grid has been recycling capital out of non‑core or less regulated assets:
- National Grid Renewables (a US renewables business) was sold to Brookfield and partners for an enterprise value around $1.7bn, with proceeds used to help fund the core networks plan. [26]
- In August 2025, Reuters reported that Centrica and Energy Capital Partners agreed to buy the Grain LNG terminal – Europe’s largest LNG import facility by tank capacity – for an enterprise value of about £1.5bn, a deal that has since been completed. [27]
- Earlier disposals of the majority stake in UK gas transmission had already shifted the group further toward electricity networks. [28]
Overall, the strategy is to concentrate on regulated electricity transmission and distribution and US state‑regulated gas and electric networks, where capex earns relatively predictable returns.
AI‑driven wildfire risk initiative
A newer strand of the investment story is digital risk management.
On 2 December 2025, National Grid announced a partnership with climate‑resilience specialist Rhizome to deploy the AI‑powered gridFIRM platform across its electric transmission and distribution networks in Massachusetts, New York and the UK. [29]
The platform uses modelling and AI to:
- Identify locations where utility assets are most likely to spark wildfires.
- Quantify and prioritise wildfire risks.
- Suggest cost‑effective mitigation strategies (for example, vegetation management or asset hardening). [30]
National Grid’s announcement cited 2,626 wildfires in New York and Massachusetts in 2024, more than double the prior year, and said National Grid Partners would commit an additional $100m to AI technologies, on top of $150m already invested. [31]
For shareholders, the important point is not the headline AI spend – tiny versus the £60bn capex plan – but the attempt to get ahead of climate‑driven operational and regulatory risk, particularly after high‑profile grid‑related wildfires in other jurisdictions.
Leadership transition: Zoë Yujnovich takes over
Governance is also in flux this year.
On 1 May 2025, National Grid announced that Zoë Yujnovich, formerly a senior executive at Shell, would become its next Chief Executive, succeeding John Pettigrew, who has led the group for almost a decade. [32]
According to company and independent coverage:
- Yujnovich joined as CEO‑designate on 1 September 2025 and
- Took over as Chief Executive on 17 November 2025, shortly after the half‑year results. TechStock²+1
Investors will be watching how the new CEO:
- Balances UK vs US growth,
- Manages execution risk on mega‑projects like the Eastern Green Link HVDC cables and London Power Tunnels, and
- Continues the portfolio simplification strategy.
Analyst views, price targets and stock forecasts
Sell‑side consensus
Data compiled by Investing.com and other aggregators suggests that for the London‑listed stock (LON: NG): [33]
- The average 12‑month target price is around 1,180p,
- With a typical range from roughly 1,070p to 1,300p.
- The consensus recommendation skews to “Buy”, with most brokers rating the shares Buy/Outperform and a small minority on Hold or Sell.
For the NGG ADR, US‑focused sources such as MarketBeat show: TechStock²+1
- A consensus rating of “Hold”, based on roughly 3 Buy, 5 Hold and 2 Sell ratings.
- An average target around $80–80.5, versus a recent price in the mid‑$70s.
Valuation models and independent research
Independent platforms paint a slightly different picture:
- Simply Wall St estimates a “narrative fair value” of about £11.93 per share versus a recent close near £11.43, implying the stock is around 4% undervalued after delivering 23% one‑year and 80% five‑year total returns. [34]
- The same analysis emphasises the £60bn capex plan as a key driver of future earnings and asset growth, while warning that regulatory or project‑delay setbacks could quickly change that narrative. [35]
- Quantitative DCF‑style models summarised in recent coverage place intrinsic value as high as 1,550–1,570p per share in more optimistic scenarios, implying 25–30% upside if everything goes right – but those assumptions are clearly more bullish than the sell‑side consensus. TechStock²+1
From the fundamental side:
- Morningstar, after the half‑year earnings and guidance upgrade, sees fiscal 2026 EPS around 78.4p at guidance midpoint but still describes the shares as “fairly valued” at current levels. [36]
- A recent Seeking Alpha article, “National Grid: Superb Returns From Undervaluation”, argues that the combination of earnings growth, dividend income and valuation could deliver 15%+ upside, while flagging US regulatory risk and high leverage as key constraints. [37]
Technical and trading signals
Short‑term trading models are generally constructive but not euphoric:
- StockInvest.us currently rates National Grid “Hold/Accumulate”, noting a strong rising short‑term trend and forecasting double‑digit percentage upside over the next three months, albeit with some technical sell signals after a recent pivot top. TechStock²
- Investing.com’s technical summary is broadly neutral on the daily timeframe, but “Strong Buy” on weekly and monthly horizons, reflecting the stock’s strong 2025 run. [38]
For long‑term investors, these technical indicators tend to matter less than the regulatory, balance‑sheet and execution picture, but they explain why short‑term traders have been active in the name.
Risks and overhangs to watch
Even as a regulated utility, National Grid carries meaningful risks that are attracting fresh scrutiny in late 2025.
Regulatory and political risk
The RIIO‑T3 decision brings clarity but not total comfort. Allowed returns may look generous in real terms, but Ofgem and the UK government are under pressure over rising household energy bills, and future price controls (or political interventions) could push harder on returns if the public mood shifts. [39]
The NESO queue clean‑up and the government’s push to connect more data centres and renewables also raise expectations that transmission owners will deliver on time and on budget, or face reputational and regulatory consequences. [40]
In the US, National Grid continues to navigate rate cases, affordability debates and state‑level climate legislation in New York and New England, with large programmes such as the Upstate Upgrade and Electric Sector Modernization Plan relying on stable regulatory support. [41]
Balance‑sheet and interest‑rate risk
With net debt at £41.8bn and regulatory gearing expected to trend into the mid‑ to high‑60% range as capex ramps, National Grid is highly sensitive to funding costs and credit ratings. Rights issue proceeds and asset sales have created some headroom, but the group still depends on continued access to low‑cost debt and equity markets. [42]
Fitch’s BBB / Stable rating reflects this balance: predictable regulated cash flows on one side, very large capex commitments and leverage on the other. [43]
Operational and climate risk
The AI‑powered wildfire initiative is partly a response to growing concerns that climate‑driven extreme weather could translate into network failures and wildfire liabilities if networks are not adequately hardened. [44]
Separately, in July 2025, the UK’s National Energy System Operator published a report on a March 20, 2025 substation fire at North Hyde that shut down Heathrow Airport, stating that the incident was caused by a known fault at an electrical substation owned by National Grid, which had allegedly been aware of the problem since 2018. A US law firm has since announced a securities‑fraud investigation on behalf of NGG investors concerning possible violations of federal securities laws. These are allegations, not findings of wrongdoing, but they illustrate the legal and reputational risks that can arise from operational incidents. [45]
Execution risk on mega‑projects
Delivering £60bn of projects – from Eastern Green Link subsea cables to London Power Tunnels, US grid upgrades and new connections for AI data centres – on time and on budget is a formidable challenge, especially amid supply‑chain constraints and skilled‑labour shortages. Fitch and others repeatedly highlight execution risk as a key factor in their analysis of UK networks. [46]
The bottom line for National Grid stock on 8 December 2025
Putting all of this together, National Grid plc in December 2025 looks like:
- A core regulated infrastructure stock with a 4%+ inflation‑linked dividend yield,
- A multi‑decade growth runway driven by electrification, renewables and data‑centre demand, supported by Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 framework,
- A balance sheet that is stretched but actively managed through rights issues and asset rotation, and
- A valuation that most mainstream analysts see as close to fair value, with modest upside, while some quantitative models and value‑oriented commentators argue for meaningful additional upside if execution goes well and regulation remains supportive. [47]
Immediate catalysts for 2026 include:
- The scrip election window closing (today for ADR holders, 11 December for London shares),
- National Grid’s formal response to Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 determination in early March 2026, and
- The full‑year 2025/26 results scheduled for 14 May 2026, where investors will look for updated guidance on capex phasing, leverage and dividend growth. [48]
References
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