On Monday, December 8, 2025, oil prices are holding close to two‑week highs, with Brent crude trading just under $64 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $60 per barrel in early trade. [1]
The market is being pulled in two directions:
- Supportive near‑term drivers – expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this week and strong oil demand data from India and China. [2]
- Bearish medium‑term outlooks – major agencies and Wall Street banks are warning of a sizable global oil surplus and lower prices in 2026. [3]
Below is a detailed look at where prices stand today, what’s driving the market on December 8, 2025, and how forecasts for 2026 and beyond are shaping trader sentiment.
Oil Prices Today: Brent and WTI Snapshot
As of Monday:
- Brent crude (front month) is trading in the $63.5–$63.9 per barrel range, near its highest levels since mid‑November. [4]
- WTI crude (front month) is around $59.8–$60.2 per barrel, edging slightly higher but still capped near the $60 mark. [5]
Both benchmarks are consolidating gains after notching their strongest closes in about two weeks at the end of last week. [6]
Even with today’s bounce, prices remain well below the $80+ levels seen in 2024, aligning with U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Brent averaged around $81 per barrel last year. [7]
Why Oil Prices Are Holding Near Two‑Week Highs
1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Are Lifting Risk Appetite
Oil is trading like a macro asset again, and today’s pricing is heavily influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
- Futures markets put the probability of a quarter‑point cut at about 84%, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. [8]
- Lower borrowing costs tend to weaken the dollar and support commodities priced in dollars, while also improving the outlook for global growth and energy demand. [9]
Analysts quoted by Reuters say the market is in “wait‑and‑see” mode ahead of the Fed decision: strong confirmation of a rate‑cutting cycle could keep crude supported, while a more hawkish tone could quickly knock prices lower. [10]
2. Geopolitics: Russia, Venezuela, and Ukraine Keep a Risk Premium in the Market
Geopolitical risk remains a key ingredient in today’s price:
- Russia–Ukraine war:
Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and uncertainty around peace talks continue to cast a shadow over future Russian exports. [11] - G7 and EU Russian oil measures:
Group of Seven countries and the EU are debating whether to replace the Russian oil price cap with broader maritime service bans, a shift that could make it harder to ship Russian crude and tighten supply. [12] - Venezuela sanctions risk:
U.S. officials are also weighing tougher action on Venezuela, which could disrupt flows from the OPEC member and add to supply risk in the Atlantic Basin. [13]
At the same time, Russia is assuring key buyers that supply will keep flowing. President Vladimir Putin recently pledged “uninterrupted” fuel shipments to India, underlining how Moscow is leaning on Asian markets to absorb barrels barred from Western buyers. [14]
The net effect: geopolitics is supportive for prices today, even as longer‑term forecasts point to oversupply.
Demand Side: India and China Are Driving Today’s Bullish Tone
Fresh data from Asia, released today, is another reason oil is firming.
India: Fuel Demand Hits a Six‑Month High
Reuters data show that India’s fuel demand in November climbed to 21.27 million metric tons, a six‑month peak: [15]
- Up 5.5% month‑on‑month and 3% year‑on‑year.
- Diesel consumption, a key proxy for freight and industrial activity, jumped 12.2% from October and 4.7% versus a year earlier. [16]
- India remains the world’s third‑largest oil consumer and importer and the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, capitalizing on discounted barrels. [17]
These numbers tell traders that demand in one of the world’s fastest‑growing economies is still robust, helping offset weak spots elsewhere.
China: Crude Imports Surge to a 27‑Month High
China’s customs data, also reported today, show crude oil imports of 50.89 million metric tons in November, equivalent to 12.38 million barrels per day – the highest daily level since August 2023. [18]
- Imports were up 4.9% year‑on‑year and 5.2% month‑on‑month. [19]
- Arrivals rose particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iran, while Russian arrivals dipped as some refiners bumped against import quota limits. [20]
Interestingly, refinery utilization rates actually eased and refined product output fell by about 5.7% month‑on‑month, meaning Chinese refiners are stocking up on cheap feedstock ahead of 2026 import quotas rather than responding to a sudden consumption boom. [21]
For the oil market, this data suggests that Asian buyers are still absorbing large crude volumes, but part of today’s demand is opportunistic stocking – something that could soften later if prices or quotas move.
Supply, Surplus and 2026: Agencies See a Glut Forming
Behind today’s relatively firm prices is an increasingly bearish supply–demand balance for 2026.
OPEC: From Deficit to Small Surplus
- In its November report, OPEC shifted its 2026 outlook from a modest deficit to a small surplus of about 20,000 barrels per day, assuming OPEC+ continues to pump at October’s rate. [22]
- The group expects global oil demand to rise by around 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly faster in 2026, but it now assumes stronger non‑OPEC+ supply, especially from the U.S. and Brazil. [23]
- OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in Q1 2026, acknowledging fears of oversupply. [24]
In the longer term, the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025 projects that global oil demand does not peak this decade, instead rising toward about 123 million barrels per day by 2050 in its central scenario. [25]
IEA: A Much Bigger Surplus
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considerably more bearish for the mid‑2020s:
- Its November Oil Market Report estimates that the global oil market could face a 2026 surplus of about 4.09 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of world demand. [26]
- The IEA expects global supply to rise by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, outpacing demand even after modest upward revisions. [27]
- Global oil inventories are already swelling, with total stocks approaching 8 billion barrels and waterborne storage climbing sharply. [28]
In short: the IEA sees the market “increasingly lopsided”, with supply forging ahead while demand growth looks modest by historical standards. [29]
EIA: Brent Seen Dropping to Mid‑$50s in 2026
The U.S. EIA’s latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook adds a clear price tag to this oversupply story:
- Brent crude is forecast to average about $69 per barrel in 2025, then fall to around $55 per barrel in 2026, with Q1 2026 around $54 as inventories keep building. [30]
- The EIA frames this as a return to significantly lower prices, consistent with expectations that global oil stocks will grow throughout 2026. [31]
Put together, the big three – OPEC, IEA and EIA – all now see some level of surplus in 2026. The disagreement is over how big that glut will be.
Banks and Analysts: A Market Anchored Around $60… For Now
Wall Street and bank research desks are broadly aligned with the agencies:
- J.P. Morgan Research has cut its Brent forecasts to $66 per barrel for 2025 and $58 for 2026, reflecting softer demand growth and robust non‑OPEC supply. [32]
- Goldman Sachs expects prices to slide through 2026 amid a supply surge, then gradually recover toward $80 Brent and $76 WTI by late 2028 as low prices discourage investment and new projects. [33]
- A broader survey of major banks, reported at the end of November, finds many expecting oil in the low‑to‑mid $50s in 2026, with some warning of a return to price levels last seen during the COVID‑era downturn if oversupply becomes extreme. [34]
Today’s Reuters piece also highlights analysis from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia: the bank sees oversupply fears eventually materializing, especially as Russian crude and refined products increasingly work around sanctions. Its base case is for futures to “gradually track towards $60 per barrel through 2026.” [35]
Given that Brent and WTI are trading very close to that $60 handle today, the market is behaving as if current prices are roughly in line with the medium‑term equilibrium, with limited conviction about a sustained move much higher or lower in the near term.
Short‑Term Risks to Watch After Today
From today’s vantage point (December 8, 2025), traders are focused on a handful of catalysts that could quickly shift prices away from the current ~$60–64 band:
- This Week’s Fed Decision
- A smaller‑than‑expected cut or a hawkish message could hit risk assets, strengthen the dollar and pressure oil.
- A clearer easing path could support crude by boosting demand expectations. [36]
- Russia‑Ukraine Developments
- A credible peace roadmap could unlock more than 2 million barrels per day of additional Russian supply, according to ANZ estimates cited by Reuters – a decisively bearish outcome.
- Conversely, sustained damage to Russian oil infrastructure would reinforce the bullish geopolitical risk premium. [37]
- Sanctions and Maritime Restrictions on Russian Oil
- If G7 and EU governments move from a price cap to sweeping maritime services bans, shipping and insuring Russian barrels will become more complicated, potentially disrupting flows and lifting prices. [38]
- OPEC+ Policy Tweaks
- Although OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in early 2026, it could still adjust quotas or announce new cuts if prices fall more sharply than members can tolerate. [39]
- Asian Demand Surprises
- India’s and China’s latest data are bullish, but if their economies slow or if stocking fades, import demand could soften. On the other hand, stronger growth or more generous 2026 import quotas would keep the demand side supportive. [40]
What Today’s Oil Price Means for Consumers and Businesses
For Consumers
The combination of $60–64 crude and a 2026 outlook in the mid‑$50s suggests that:
- Retail fuel prices are likely to remain notably lower than in 2022–2023 and lower than much of 2024, barring a major supply shock. [41]
- The EIA expects average U.S. gasoline prices to drift toward around $3 per gallon by 2026, offering some relief to households compared with earlier inflation spikes. [42]
For Producers and Oil‑Linked Businesses
- Upstream producers face an awkward mix of decent current prices but weak forward curves, which may limit aggressive investment and drilling plans, particularly in higher‑cost basins. [43]
- Refining and petrochemical players may benefit from cheaper crude feedstock if 2026 forecasts materialise, provided end‑user demand holds up. [44]
- Import‑dependent economies like India benefit from today’s relatively moderate prices, especially as they negotiate discounts on sanctioned barrels from Russia and Iran. [45]
As always, none of this should be considered personalized investment advice. Oil remains a highly volatile asset class, and sudden geopolitical or macro shocks can overwhelm even the best‑informed forecasts.
Quick FAQ: Oil Price Today – December 8, 2025
Q: What is the oil price today, December 8, 2025?
A: Brent crude is trading just under $64 per barrel, while WTI is around $60 per barrel, near two‑week highs. [46]
Q: Why are oil prices up today?
A: Prices are supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut, which could boost global growth, and by strong demand signals from India and China, alongside ongoing geopolitical risks around Russian supply and potential new sanctions. [47]
Q: Will oil prices rise or fall in 2026?
A: Most major forecasters – including the IEA, EIA, OPEC and large banks – see a market surplus in 2026 and expect Brent to average around the mid‑$50s, below today’s levels, though opinions differ on the scale of the glut. [48]
Q: What are the biggest risks to the current outlook?
A: The main wildcards are the Federal Reserve’s policy path, Russia‑Ukraine developments, the severity of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil, and the strength of Asian demand. A large supply disruption or unexpectedly strong growth could push prices higher than forecast; a deeper glut could push them lower. [49]
References
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