Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) heads into mid‑December 2025 as one of the market’s most hotly debated “high-yield value” healthcare stocks. The share price has stabilized around the mid‑$20s after a bruising multi‑year slide, even as the company delivers solid earnings, unveils promising new clinical data, and doubles down on obesity drugs and AI-driven cost cutting.
At the same time, investors are weighing a looming patent cliff, a tougher regulatory climate for vaccines, and legal setbacks tied to Pfizer’s Seagen acquisition. Below is a structured look at where Pfizer stock stands today and how major analysts and models see it over the next few years.
Pfizer stock today: price, valuation and dividend
As of the latest close before December 8, 2025, Pfizer stock trades at about $26 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $148 billion. [1]
Over the past 12 months, PFE has traded in a 52‑week range of about $20.9 to $27.7, putting today’s price roughly 6% below the recent high reached in early October. [2] The stock is essentially flat over the last year but remains more than 50% below its late‑2021 peak, when COVID‑19 vaccine revenues were near their zenith. [3]
A nearly 7% dividend yield
Pfizer’s biggest magnet for investors right now is its income profile:
- The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share, or $1.72 annually. [4]
- At a ~$26 share price, that translates into a forward dividend yield of about 6.6–7.0%, one of the highest in the S&P 500 and well above most large pharmaceutical peers. [5]
- Pfizer has increased its dividend annually for more than a decade and has not cut it through the COVID boom‑and‑bust cycle. [6]
This payout is being watched closely. Barron’s recently highlighted that Pfizer’s stock had earlier in 2025 fallen back toward price levels last seen in the late 1990s, temporarily pushing the yield close to 8%, but noted that management continues to signal strong commitment to the dividend while pausing share buybacks to reduce debt. [7]
Earnings and valuation
Fundamentals look healthier than the beaten‑down share price implies:
- In Q3 2025, Pfizer reported revenue of $16.7 billion, down 7% operationally year‑over‑year as COVID product sales continued to decline, but with non‑COVID revenue up 4% operationally. [8]
- Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.87 for the quarter. [9]
- Management reaffirmed full‑year 2025 revenue guidance of $61–64 billion and raised adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00–$3.15, up from $2.90–$3.10 previously. [10]
Wall Street consensus compiled by StockAnalysis pegs 2025 EPS around $3.17 and 2026 EPS around $3.12, implying a forward P/E multiple of roughly 8x at current prices—well below the broader market and many big‑pharma peers. [11]
That combination of single‑digit earnings multiple plus a ~7% dividend yield is why many commentators describe Pfizer as “cheap,” while also warning that high yields can signal genuine business risk.
Key recent news shaping Pfizer stock
1. Q3 2025 results and a bigger cost‑cutting program
Pfizer’s Q3 2025 report in early November was a key turning point in sentiment:
- Non‑COVID medicines and vaccines are now the majority of revenue and are growing mid‑single digits, partially offsetting the steep decline in Comirnaty (COVID vaccine) and Paxlovid (COVID antiviral). [12]
- The company reaffirmed its $61–64 billion revenue outlook for 2025 and slightly tightened EPS guidance upward, signaling confidence in execution and in its cost‑reduction program. [13]
Earlier in the year, Reuters reported that Pfizer had expanded its net cost‑savings target to about $7.2–7.7 billion by 2027, up from an earlier plan of $5 billion, with around $4.5 billion expected to be realized by the end of 2025. [14] Management has repeatedly said that some of these savings will be plowed back into R&D, particularly in oncology and obesity.
2. HYMPAVZI: strong hemophilia data at year-end 2025
On December 6, 2025, Pfizer released new Phase 3 data for HYMPAVZI (marstacimab) in patients with hemophilia A or B who have developed inhibitors, a particularly hard‑to‑treat subgroup. In the BASIS trial:
- Weekly subcutaneous HYMPAVZI reduced the mean treated annualized bleeding rate by 93% versus prior on‑demand therapy with bypassing agents.
- Bleeding reductions were consistent across hemophilia type, age and geography, and the median annualized bleeding rate on HYMPAVZI fell to zero versus more than 16 on prior therapy. [15]
HYMPAVZI is already approved in more than 40 countries for certain hemophilia A and B patients without inhibitors; Pfizer has now submitted the new inhibitor data to the FDA and EMA for potential label expansion. [16]
If regulators agree, HYMPAVZI could become an important growth driver in a rare‑disease niche where patients often face high treatment burden and cost.
3. Metsera: a $10 billion re‑entry into obesity drugs
One of the biggest strategic stories for Pfizer in 2025 has been its aggressive move into the booming obesity market:
- In September, Pfizer announced a deal to acquire obesity‑drug developer Metsera for up to $7.3 billion. [17]
- A bidding war with Novo Nordisk followed, with both companies repeatedly sweetening offers. [18]
- On November 13, 2025, Pfizer closed an up to $10 billion acquisition of Metsera, after shareholder approval, gaining access to a portfolio of GLP‑1 and amylin‑based obesity candidates, including MET‑097i, which is advancing toward late‑stage trials. [19]
Reuters noted that the deal marks Pfizer’s formal re‑entry into the obesity market after it scrapped its own oral GLP‑1 program (danuglipron) due to safety concerns, and that it gives Pfizer a foothold in a sector some analysts see reaching $150 billion in annual sales by decade’s end. [20]
Motley Fool and other commentators have argued that Metsera could eventually generate multibillion‑dollar peak sales if its candidates show better tolerability or more convenient dosing than today’s market leaders from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, though launches are unlikely before 2028–2029. [21]
4. RSV vaccine Abrysvo and other non‑COVID growth areas
While COVID‑related revenues continue to shrink, several newer products are helping to rebuild Pfizer’s growth base. One key franchise is Abrysvo, the company’s RSV vaccine:
- International organizations have granted prequalification for Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine, clearing the way for procurement by agencies such as UNICEF and broader use in low‑ and middle‑income countries. [22]
- In major markets, Abrysvo has approvals both for older adults and for use in pregnancy to protect newborns, positioning it to benefit from the rapid expansion of the RSV vaccine category. [23]
Alongside RSV, management frequently highlights oncology assets (including Seagen’s antibody‑drug conjugates), hematology, and cardiovascular drugs like Vyndaqel and Eliquis as pillars of its non‑COVID growth story. [24]
5. Legal setback on Seagen’s Enhertu patent
Not all Seagen‑related news has been positive. On December 2, 2025, a U.S. appeals court overturned a nearly $42 million patent verdict Seagen had previously won against Daiichi Sankyo over the cancer drug Enhertu, ruling that the Seagen patent was invalid. [25]
The decision wipes out the earlier damages award and potential ongoing royalties, representing a modest but symbolically important setback for Pfizer’s antibody‑drug conjugate (ADC) ambitions following its $43 billion acquisition of Seagen in 2023. [26]
6. Stricter vaccine oversight rattles the sector
Another overhang for Pfizer is a shifting regulatory environment for vaccines in the United States:
- On December 1, 2025, Investopedia reported that an internal FDA memo from the new head of the vaccines center linked COVID‑19 vaccines to a small number of child deaths and proposed stricter oversight and review processes for vaccine approvals. [27]
- Shares of multiple vaccine makers, including Moderna, Novavax, BioNTech and Pfizer, fell on the news amid concerns that future vaccine trials and approvals could become more complex and time‑consuming. [28]
Analysts at William Blair and others warned that additional constraints could be another headwind for Pfizer’s COVID and RSV vaccine businesses, even though the memo did not target any single company. [29]
7. Activist investor exits and portfolio reshuffling
Investor positioning around Pfizer has also been shifting:
- Activist hedge fund Starboard Value, which took a roughly $1 billion stake in Pfizer in 2024 to push for strategic and governance changes, disclosed in November 2025 that it has fully exited its PFE position (about 8.5 million shares sold in Q3), effectively ending its campaign. [30]
- Starboard’s exit underscores how challenging it has been to move the share price despite cost cuts and pipeline news; Pfizer’s market cap is around $20 billion lower than when Starboard’s stake was first revealed. [31]
- Around the same time, Pfizer disclosed that it had cut its stake in BioNTech by more than half, monetizing part of its COVID vaccine partner position while emphasizing that the underlying collaboration remains intact. The company is reallocating capital into acquisitions like Seagen and Metsera and into debt reduction. [32]
Pfizer stock forecast: what analysts and models say
Wall Street 12‑month forecast
According to data compiled by StockAnalysis, which aggregates 10 covering analysts:
- The consensus rating on Pfizer is “Hold.”
- The average 12‑month price target is $28.30, implying about 8.7% upside from the current share price.
- Individual targets range from $24 to $35, reflecting wide disagreement on how Pfizer will navigate its upcoming patent expirations and revenue mix shift away from COVID products. [33]
Consensus estimates also point to flat-to-slightly-declining revenue (around $63 billion in 2025 and $62 billion in 2026) but EPS stabilizing above $3 per share as cost savings fully flow through. [34]
Independent fundamental forecast to 2030
A detailed forecast from 24/7 Wall St., published December 4, 2025, takes a more explicitly value‑oriented view: [35]
- It notes that Pfizer shares are down more than 56% from their all‑time high in December 2021 but still pay a ~6.7% dividend yield.
- Using a 2025 EPS estimate of $2.80 and a forward P/E of 7.53, the authors project a year‑end 2025 price of $33.60, about 31% above today’s level.
- Their internal model then maps out a path to roughly $34 by 2030, implying ~33% cumulative upside over five years, though with a modest pullback in the late 2020s as growth moderates.
Importantly, this is one proprietary forecast, not gospel; it assumes Pfizer can hold margins, maintain the dividend and offset much of its patent cliff with new oncology, obesity and other products.
Technical and algorithmic forecasts
On the purely quantitative side, CoinCodex—which uses technical indicators and price patterns rather than fundamentals—currently shows: [36]
- A short‑term bullish signal, with PFE trading above several key moving averages.
- A 5‑day price target around $27.44 (about 5% upside) and a 1‑month target of $27.60 (around 6% upside).
- An estimated average 2025 price of $28.78 in a range of roughly $26–30, which it equates to a potential 15% return from current levels.
However, the same model is much more cautious long‑term, with an internal projection that PFE could trade around $13.51 by 2030, i.e. nearly 50% below today’s price, highlighting how sensitive algorithmic outputs are to the historical downtrend. [37]
As always with such tools, these numbers are not predictions in the scientific sense; they are statistical extrapolations from recent behavior and are best treated as sentiment indicators, not as investment roadmaps.
The bull case: why some investors like Pfizer here
Commentary from outlets such as Motley Fool, Nasdaq, Kiplinger and others has coalesced around several points in the bullish argument for Pfizer stock: [38]
- Valuation looks inexpensive
- A forward P/E near 8x and a near‑7% yield are well below both the S&P 500 and many large pharma peers.
- For income‑oriented investors, a long dividend track record plus cost cuts that improve coverage ratios are appealing.
- Dividend appears reasonably well supported (for now)
- Management has repeatedly reaffirmed the dividend and is prioritizing debt reduction over buybacks—classic “dividend‑protector” behavior. [39]
- Pipeline and new launches could offset the COVID comedown
- Abrysvo (RSV), HYMPAVZI (hemophilia), oncology assets from Seagen, and the new Metsera obesity franchise give Pfizer multiple shots on goal in some of the industry’s fastest‑growing segments. [40]
- Weight‑loss drugs and oncology alone are forecast to add tens of billions in global market value over the next decade.
- Massive cost‑saving and AI push
- Pfizer expects to deliver more than $7 billion in annual net cost savings by 2027, aided by company‑wide use of AI in drug discovery, clinical development and regulatory submissions. [41]
- That could allow EPS to grow even if revenue is flat.
- Post‑COVID revenue volatility is easing
- Management has argued that COVID‑related uncertainties have “largely faded,” making earnings more predictable again—something many long‑term investors care deeply about. [42]
The bear case: key risks weighing on Pfizer stock
On the bearish side, critics focus on structural and political risks that help explain why the stock is cheap:
- A serious patent cliff in 2026–2027
- Patents on major products like Prevnar 13, Eliquis, Ibrance and Xtandi begin expiring in the second half of the decade. Analysts estimate that, across big pharma, roughly $236 billion in sales could be at risk industry‑wide by 2030, and Pfizer is one of the companies in that blast radius. [43]
- COVID revenue collapse and vaccine uncertainty
- Execution risk on obesity and oncology bets
- Metsera’s obesity candidates are years away from potential approval; safety or efficacy surprises could derail the thesis, and competition from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is intense. [46]
- The Seagen portfolio must now deliver in a world where at least one hoped‑for patent advantage (the Enhertu case) has evaporated. [47]
- Regulatory and political pressure on drug prices and trade
- Pfizer has already flagged potential impacts from U.S. drug‑pricing reforms and from new tariffs on imported branded medicines, and has said it may shift more production to U.S. sites to compensate. [48]
- Very high dividend yield can be a warning sign
- Commentators like Kiplinger have included Pfizer on lists of the highest‑yielding S&P 500 stocks, while also warning that unusually high yields often reflect investor skepticism about long‑term earnings power. [49]
What to watch next for PFE shareholders
Several near‑term catalysts could influence Pfizer’s share price and the evolving narrative around the stock:
- December 16, 2025 guidance call
Pfizer has invited investors to a conference call with analysts on December 16 to provide full‑year 2026 financial guidance and an updated view on the pipeline and cost savings. Markets will be watching whether management signals renewed revenue growth or continued stagnation. [50] - Regulatory decisions on HYMPAVZI and obesity programs
Approvals or label expansions for HYMPAVZI in patients with inhibitors, and visible progress of Metsera’s GLP‑1 candidates into late‑stage trials, would strengthen the bull case that Pfizer can replace lost COVID and patent‑expiry revenues. [51] - RSV vaccine adoption trends
Real‑world uptake of Abrysvo in older adults and maternal immunization campaigns, especially in markets where WHO prequalification opens doors to large public health programs, will help determine how meaningful RSV becomes for Pfizer’s top line. [52] - Policy clarity on vaccine oversight and drug pricing
Any follow‑up guidance from the FDA on vaccine trial requirements, as well as policy moves on pricing or tariffs, will be closely watched not just by Pfizer investors, but across the entire pharmaceutical sector. [53]
Bottom line: Pfizer in December 2025
As of December 8, 2025, Pfizer stock sits at an uncomfortable crossroads:
- The numbers (sub‑10x P/E, ~7% yield, stable $60+ billion revenue base) look attractive on paper.
- The strategy (cost cuts, AI, oncology, RSV, obesity) is coherent and increasingly visible in clinical and M&A activity.
- Yet the risks—patent expirations, vaccine politics, legal setbacks and intense competition—are real enough that many analysts are staying on the sidelines with “Hold” ratings.
For income‑oriented investors who believe Pfizer can successfully execute on its pipeline and cost‑saving plans, PFE may resemble a long‑term value play with substantial yield. For more cautious investors, it remains a classic value‑versus‑value‑trap debate where future clinical data, regulatory decisions and 2026 guidance will likely tip the scales.
References
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