Duolingo (DUOL) Stock on December 8, 2025: Price, AI Pivot, Crash, and 2026 Forecasts

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Duolingo stock price on December 8, 2025

As of midday on December 8, 2025, Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) is trading around $200 per share, after closing at $199.75 on December 5. That gives the language-learning platform a market capitalization of roughly $9 billion. ^[1]

The current price represents a dramatic comedown from Duolingo’s all‑time closing high of $540.68 on May 14, 2025, a drop of about 63%. ^[2] Data from Trefis and other analytics platforms show that from early June to early December, the stock has fallen more than 60%, largely driven by a sharp contraction in its price‑to‑earnings multiple rather than a deterioration in operating performance. ^[3]

Yet over a longer horizon, Duolingo is still a big winner: between December 2022 and December 2025, the share price is up about 190%, powered by revenue that has nearly tripled over that period. ^[4]

How Duolingo got here: a volatile 2025

Duolingo entered 2025 as one of the market’s standout “AI education” stories. A Nasdaq column in late 2024 had already flagged 2025 as a make‑or‑break year for the company as it leaned harder into artificial intelligence to personalize lessons and expand content. ^[5]

In August 2025, Duolingo reported strong second‑quarter results and raised its full‑year 2025 revenue forecast to $1.01–$1.02 billion, up from a prior range of $987–$996 million, citing rapid adoption of its AI‑enhanced premium tier. ^[6] Shares jumped more than 20–30% after that earnings release, as investors cheered the combination of rapid user growth and improving profitability. ^[7]

But sentiment flipped hard in the autumn:

Articles from outlets such as Bloomberg and others highlighted AI‑powered live translation from big tech companies as a potential long‑term threat to Duolingo’s growth, focusing attention on its “pricey multiple.” ^[8]
Discussion of Duolingo’s aggressive “AI‑first” positioning – including an internal memo and the replacement of some human‑recorded voices – sparked controversy online and worries about brand risk. ^[9]
A wave of analyst downgrades and target cuts in November (from firms including Wells Fargo, KeyCorp, Needham, Scotiabank, Goldman Sachs and DA Davidson) followed the Q3 report. ^[10]

By early December, Trefis estimates Duolingo shares were down about 45% year‑over‑year and more than 60% from June levels, even as last‑twelve‑month revenue rose nearly 40% and net income margins expanded significantly. ^[11]

Q3 2025: fundamentals strong, guidance spooks the market

The turning point for sentiment was Duolingo’s third‑quarter 2025 report, released on November 5, 2025.

According to Duolingo’s press release and subsequent analysis:

Q3 2025 revenue reached roughly $271.7 million, up 41% year over year, and above analyst expectations of about $260 million. ^[12]
Daily active users (DAUs) surpassed 50 million, growing 36% versus the prior year; both DAUs and revenue were up more than 40% in the first nine months of 2025. ^[13]
Paid subscribers increased 34% to about 11.5 million, helped by strong performance in China and a partnership with Luckin Coffee. ^[14]
Adjusted EBITDA jumped around 68% to roughly $80 million, and gross margins remained very high (above 70%). ^[15]

On the surface, those are the kind of numbers that usually send a high‑growth stock higher. Instead, DUOL plunged 20–25% immediately after the report. ^[16]

The key reason: guidance.

Duolingo guided Q4 2025 bookings to $329.5–$335.5 million, below Wall Street’s expectation of about $343.6 million. ^[17]
Management raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance again, to $1.028–$1.032 billion, but framed the company’s strategy as prioritizing teaching quality and long‑term learning outcomes over maximizing short‑term monetization. ^[18]

Barron’s and other outlets underscored the paradox: Duolingo “crushed” expectations on revenue and profitability, but investors balked at softer bookings guidance and a message that near‑term margins could be constrained by reinvestment. ^[19]

An AI‑first strategy that excites — and worries — investors

Duolingo’s AI story is central to both the bull and bear cases.

How AI is driving growth

Coverage of the company’s strategy notes:

Duolingo combines OpenAI‑style large language models with its proprietary Birdbrain recommendation engine to personalize lessons, generate exercises, and help scale content cheaply. ^[20]
AI has allowed Duolingo to launch dozens of new courses in a fraction of the time it once took, and to expand beyond language into math, music and even chess, supporting its ambition to become an educational “super app.” ^[21]
A blog analysis of Duolingo’s AI rollout estimated that AI‑driven features contributed to 51% user growth and a revenue run‑rate approaching $1 billion, lifting the stock roughly 18% after the Q2 2025 results earlier in the year. ^[22]

In an interview covered by Business Insider, CEO Luis von Ahn stressed that Duolingo does not plan to lay off full‑time employees because of AI, even though it has reduced its reliance on contractors and pushed staff to adopt AI tools in their workflows. ^[23]

Why AI also amplifies risk

On the risk side, recent reporting highlights several concerns:

Competition from big tech AI: Trefis and others note rising fears about AI‑powered language tools from companies like Google and OpenAI that could encroach on Duolingo’s value proposition, especially for casual learners. ^[24]
Brand and quality concerns: The “AI‑first” pivot – including the heavier use of synthetic voices – triggered user backlash, online criticism, and worries that content quality could slip if AI output is not carefully monitored. ^[25]
Regulatory and legal questions: Trefis flags a class‑action investigation announced in 2025 as another overhang on the stock, adding to uncertainty around disclosure and expectations. ^[26]

This mix of exceptional growth and elevated risk is at the heart of why Duolingo has become one of 2025’s most volatile AI names.

Fresh catalysts and headlines around December 8, 2025

In the days leading up to December 8, several notable developments have shaped the narrative around DUOL:

1. Gaming crossover: Genshin Impact x Duolingo

TechRadar reports that starting December 8, 2025, Duolingo and blockbuster RPG Genshin Impact are launching a limited‑time “Streak Quest” crossover. The event runs until December 27 and rewards players with in‑game items if they complete Duolingo learning tasks, featuring Genshin characters alongside Duolingo’s owl mascot. ^[27]

While this is more of a marketing and engagement play than a direct financial driver, it reinforces Duolingo’s positioning at the intersection of gaming, education, and fandom, and could help deepen engagement with younger users.

2. Institutional selling: Invesco cuts its stake

According to a December 6 MarketBeat report, asset manager Invesco Ltd. reduced its Duolingo holdings by about 42% in Q2, selling roughly 568,700 shares and ending the period with 777,561 shares, or about 1.7% of the company, valued around $319 million at the time. ^[28]

The move highlights that some large institutions have been locking in gains or de‑risking after the stock’s huge run and subsequent crash.

3. Insider buying: executives step in

In contrast to the institutional trimming, TradingView‑reported regulatory filings show that on December 3, 2025, Duolingo co‑founder and CEO Luis von Ahn purchased roughly 68,000 shares, increasing his stake to about 3.29 million shares. Other executives also added shares. At the same time, DA Davidson cut its price target from $220 to $205 while maintaining a neutral rating. ^[29]

Insider buying after a steep decline is typically read as a vote of confidence in the long‑term story.

4. Sentiment whiplash in the media

The commentary space in early December is sharply divided:

A Motley Fool piece on December 7 titled “Why I’m Buying Duolingo Stock Like There’s No Tomorrow” argues that the long‑term opportunity remains intact despite the recent crash, pointing to strong user metrics and a still‑expanding market for digital learning. ^[30]
Another article on November 18 from 24/7 Wall St., titled “Investors Hate DUOL Stock Now”, noted that shares had fallen about 45% in a month, attributing the rout to an “implosion” in retail investor sentiment following the AI‑first controversy and guidance reset. ^[31]

In other words, opinion is polarized: some see a broken growth story, others see a temporarily mispriced leader.

What Wall Street expects: price targets and growth forecasts

Despite the 2025 drawdown, most sell‑side analysts remain constructive on Duolingo’s long‑term prospects.

Analyst ratings and targets

Different aggregators report slightly different numbers, but they all point to sizable upside from current levels:

MarketBeat (covering about 23 analysts) shows an average 12‑month price target around $339–340, with estimates ranging from $185 to $575. From roughly $200, that implies around 70% upside. ^[32]
StockAnalysis reports a consensus “Buy” rating from 15 analysts, with an average target of about $330.67 (low $185, high $500), implying ~65% upside over the next year. ^[33]
A Fintel‑summarized note cited by Nasdaq puts the average one‑year target at $309.22, based on analyst estimates as of mid‑November, about 69% above a then‑recent price of $182.61. ^[34]
Yahoo Finance lists a somewhat more conservative 1‑year target estimate around $270, still well above today’s price. ^[35]

Zacks, via TradingView, currently assigns Duolingo a Rank #3 (Hold) but notes that consensus 2025 earnings estimates have been trending higher over the past month, and frames the long‑term case around the company’s potential to generate substantial free cash flow as it matures. ^[36]

Growth forecasts

Analyst models compiled by StockAnalysis expect: ^[37]

Revenue 2025: about $1.05 billion, up ~40% from 2024.
Revenue 2026: about $1.29 billion, another ~23% growth.
EPS 2025: roughly $7.72, up sharply from $1.88 in 2024 (helped by tax and other items).
EPS 2026: around $4.42, reflecting normalization after one‑time benefits and continued reinvestment.

Wall Street’s base case, then, is still that Duolingo grows well above market averages, though at slowing rates, and that profitability remains solid even as the company pours money into AI and new subject areas.

Quant and technical models are more cautious

Not all forward‑looking models are bullish. Algorithmic and technical‑analysis‑driven sites are currently more skeptical about DUOL’s near‑term trajectory.

According to CoinCodex’s December 8, 2025 update: ^[38]

The current price is listed at $199.75.
The model’s 1‑month prediction is $171.93, implying about –14% downside.
Its 1‑year forecast is around $154, about –23% from today’s level.
Technical sentiment is tagged as “bearish”, with only 10 bullish vs 16 bearish indicators, a Fear & Greed Index in “Fear” territory (39), and volatility near 22% over the last 30 days.

A separate price‑target aggregator (Stocksguide) shows an average target of about $306, roughly 53% above the current price, with a high estimate of $598.50 and a low of $181.80. ^[39]

These tools rely heavily on price patterns and historical volatility rather than business fundamentals, but they underline that short‑term risk remains high even if the long‑term story is attractive.

Valuation: compressed multiple vs. growth story

One of the more striking analyses comes from Simply Wall St, which uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to estimate Duolingo’s intrinsic value. That model pegs fair value at around $480 per share, implying the stock is currently trading at a ~60% discount to estimated value. ^[40]

Trefis similarly highlights that: ^[41]

Last‑twelve‑month revenue is about $1.0 billion, up nearly 40% year over year.
Last‑twelve‑month net income margins have expanded to around 40%.
The sharp 2025 drawdown has been driven mainly by a collapse in the P/E multiple — from roughly 239x in June 2025 to under 25x by early December — even as revenue and profits continued to rise.

That combination — falling valuation multiple plus rising fundamentals — is why many long‑term‑oriented analysts frame the current sell‑off as a potential opportunity rather than a structural collapse.

Key risks to the Duolingo bull case

Still, there are clear risks that any investor needs to weigh carefully:

AI competition and substitution risk
Google, OpenAI and others are investing heavily in AI tutors and real‑time translation. If generic AI tools become “good enough” for casual language learning, Duolingo’s ability to charge premium subscription prices or maintain engagement could be pressured. ^[42]
Execution risk in new verticals
Expanding into math, music, chess and other subjects broadens Duolingo’s addressable market, but also pits it against specialized competitors in each category. Success is not guaranteed. ^[43]
Guidance and monetization concerns
The Q3 backlash showed how sensitive the market is to even modestly softer guidance after a period of intense optimism. If Duolingo’s focus on “teaching quality” slows monetization more than expected, earnings estimates for 2026–27 could continue to drift lower. ^[44]
Reputation and user experience
The shift to AI‑generated voices and content must be handled carefully to avoid alienating users who value authenticity. The earlier AI backlash and social‑media criticism show that brand trust can be fragile. ^[45]
Legal and regulatory exposure
A class‑action investigation, if it advances, could generate headline risk and distract management, even if it ultimately proves immaterial financially. ^[46]

Bottom line: high‑growth, high‑volatility AI stock

As of December 8, 2025, Duolingo sits at an unusual crossroads:

The business is firing: DAUs over 50 million, revenue growing above 40%, margins strong, paid subscribers rising, and AI features driving engagement and a broader product roadmap. ^[47]
The stock has been punished: down more than 60% from its all‑time high, roughly 45% over the last year, and extremely volatile as investors reassess what a reasonable multiple is for an AI‑driven education platform. ^[48]
The experts are split: fundamental analysts mostly see substantial upside from current levels, while quantitative and technical models lean bearish in the near term, and media sentiment ranges from “investors hate this stock” to “I’m buying like there’s no tomorrow.” ^[49]

For investors, Duolingo today is essentially a high‑growth, AI‑leveraged, but high‑beta story: the company’s operating metrics and AI strategy remain compelling, but the stock price will likely stay volatile as the market digests new competitors, evolving guidance, and the true long‑term economics of AI‑powered education.