US Stock Futures Today, December 8, 2025: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Edge Higher Ahead of Fed Rate Cut Decision

U.S. stock futures traded slightly higher early Monday, December 8, 2025, as Wall Street enters a pivotal “Fed week” with investors overwhelmingly betting on an interest rate cut and major indexes hovering near record highs. ^[1]

US stock futures today at a glance

By around 6:00–7:30 a.m. ET on Monday:

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were near 48,000, up about 0.02–0.03%. ^[2]
S&P 500 futures (ES) traded around 6,880–6,885, roughly 0.1% higher. ^[3]
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) were close to 25,780, up roughly 0.2–0.25%, leading major U.S. futures. ^[4]
Russell 2000 futures outperformed, up about 0.4%, reflecting ongoing interest in small caps that are sensitive to borrowing costs. ^[5]

Coverage from Reuters, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance and others characterizes the move as “slightly higher” to “steady”, underscoring a cautious but positive tone as traders wait for the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of 2025. ^[6]

In the cash market, the broad US500 (S&P 500 cash index) recently traded around 6,877 points, just a fraction below its record, after posting modest gains late last week. ^[7]

Fed week: Markets price in a near‑certain rate cut

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting, concluding Wednesday, dominates sentiment. Several major outlets describe the gathering as one of the most closely watched—and potentially most divisive—in recent years. ^[8]

Rate-cut odds near 90%

Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool imply roughly an 87–90% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week. ^[9]
Reuters notes that this probability has climbed sharply from around 30–60% a month ago as inflation data softened and growth cooled. ^[10]

Analysts quoted by Reuters and Benzinga highlight that the decision is unlikely to be unanimous. Strategists at Deutsche Bank warn that multiple dissenting votes—potentially the largest split since the early 1990s—would underline how controversial the pace of easing has become inside the Fed. ^[11]

Inflation and growth backdrop

Recent data provide the Fed with some cover to ease:

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose about 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in September, a cooler reading that has encouraged rate‑cut bets. ^[12]
Delayed data on U.S. consumer spending showed only moderate growth toward the end of Q3, suggesting the economy is slowing but not collapsing. ^[13]

Still, policymakers remain split. Coverage from Bloomberg and Reuters stresses that inflation is not yet fully under control, and some officials are uneasy about cutting too aggressively. ^[14]

Bonds, dollar and commodities: a tighter financial backdrop

Even with multiple rate cuts already delivered this year, bond yields remain elevated:

The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield traded around 4.15–4.16% early Monday, up a couple of basis points from Friday’s close. ^[15]
Bloomberg’s markets coverage describes yields as “stubbornly high” relative to the scale of easing already priced in, reflecting skepticism that inflation will fall smoothly back to target. ^[16]

In risk‑sentiment gauges:

The VIX volatility index sits in the mid‑teens (around 16), historically low but slightly above recent troughs—consistent with a market that is calm but preparing for potential Fed‑driven swings. ^[17]

On the commodities side:

WTI crude oil is roughly 1% lower on the day, near the high‑$50s per barrel, amid ongoing concerns about global demand.
Gold is modestly higher, extending its role as a hedge ahead of Wednesday’s decision. ^[18]

Indexes hover near records as AI and tech stay in focus

Global and U.S. equity benchmarks are entering Fed week from a position of strength:

Bloomberg’s cross‑asset wrap notes that S&P 500 futures are up slightly while Nasdaq 100 futures gain around 0.2%, leaving both benchmarks close to their recent highs. ^[19]
TradingView commentary points out that the S&P 500 is less than 1% from its all‑time high, coming off a second consecutive winning week for U.S. stocks. ^[20]

A large part of this rally has been driven by big‑cap technology and AI‑linked names, which remain central to investors’ positioning for 2026. Interviews with asset managers across the U.S., Europe and Asia conducted for Bloomberg suggest most institutional allocators still favor a “risk‑on” stance supported by resilient growth, AI‑related earnings and easier policy. ^[21]

However, several strategists warn that with valuations stretched and indexes near records, any hawkish surprise from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could quickly reverse recent gains. ^[22]

Premarket stock movers on December 8, 2025

While index futures are only modestly higher, individual names are seeing big premarket moves:

Confluent surges on IBM takeover talk

Confluent (CFLT) shares are up around 30–32% in premarket trading after reports that IBM is close to acquiring the data‑streaming company in a deal valued at about $11 billion. ^[23]
Benzinga notes that Confluent shows strong short‑ and medium‑term price momentum, though longer‑term trends are more mixed. ^[24]

Carvana, CRH and Comfort Systems rally on S&P 500 inclusion

Carvana (CVNA) jumps roughly 8–9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed the online used‑car retailer will join the S&P 500 later this month. ^[25]
CRH Plc and Comfort Systems USA also trade sharply higher on the same index‑inclusion news, as funds tracking the benchmark prepare to add the names. ^[26]

Netflix and other large caps in the spotlight

Netflix is about 1.5% higher premarket after President Donald Trump raised antitrust concerns about its planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, a deal that could reshape streaming. ^[27]
Market watchers say scrutiny of this proposed tie‑up could influence broader sentiment toward large tech and media mergers.

Homebuilders and earnings plays

Toll Brothers (TOL) is up about 0.5% in premarket trade. Analysts expect the luxury homebuilder to report earnings of around $4.89 per share on $3.3 billion in revenue after the closing bell. ^[28]

More broadly, Benzinga’s premarket breakdown shows SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) modestly higher, mirroring the index‑futures moves. ^[29]

Economic data and earnings calendar to watch this week

Although Monday’s U.S. data slate is relatively light, investors will quickly pivot from futures levels to a packed macro and corporate lineup for the rest of the week:

Economic data

According to economic calendars compiled by Investing.com and other outlets: ^[30]

Tuesday, December 9 brings NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS job openings for October, both closely watched for labor‑market and wage‑pressure signals.
Treasury auctions and high‑frequency indicators such as Redbook retail sales will help refine views on consumer resilience heading into year‑end.

Kaohoon International notes that investors are also watching upcoming labor data and broader employment trends as key inputs into the Fed’s 2026 policy path. ^[31]

Earnings and corporate events

Several large‑cap names that matter to index‑level performance are due to report:

Oracle, Broadcom and Adobe headline the week in technology and software. ^[32]
Costco and Lululemon will offer insight into consumer spending and discretionary demand heading into the holiday season. ^[33]

The Economic Times notes that last week’s gains for the major U.S. indexes were underpinned partly by optimism around these upcoming earnings and relief that inflation data remained contained. ^[34]

What today’s futures moves mean for investors

A calm surface, but volatility risk is building

TradingView’s analysis frames Monday’s price action as a quiet start before a potentially volatile mid‑week: S&P 500 futures are only marginally higher, but traders expect sharp moves once the Fed decision and Powell’s press conference hit the tape. ^[35]

Key scenarios strategists are discussing:

Base case – 25 bp cut with cautious but not hawkish guidance
- Equities could push to fresh all‑time highs, especially if Powell emphasizes flexibility and confidence in the disinflation trend.
- Growth and AI‑linked tech names, already market leaders, might extend their outperformance. ^[36]
Hawkish surprise – smaller cut, no cut, or “we’re not in a rush” messaging
- A less‑dovish stance could trigger a rapid unwinding of rate‑cut trades, pushing yields and the dollar higher while pressuring richly valued growth stocks. ^[37]
Dovish surprise – cut plus signals of more easing in early 2026
- Could spark a “year‑end melt‑up”, as TradingView puts it, with a potential breakout in S&P 500 futures above the 6,900 area and Nasdaq 100 futures pushing deeper into record territory. ^[38]

Longer‑term positioning

Bloomberg’s interviews with 39 investment managers show that most are still planning for a risk‑on 2026, citing: ^[39]

Expectations of continued AI‑driven productivity and earnings growth,
Supportive fiscal policy and resilient global demand,
And a belief that central banks will ultimately err on the side of accommodative policy.

At the same time, asset managers such as EFG Asset Management and BNP Paribas Asset Management caution that with 2025 already a strong year, they are reluctant to increase equity exposure into thin year‑end liquidity, preferring instead to wait for better entry points in early 2026. ^[40]

Key levels and themes to watch through today’s session

For traders and longer‑term investors alike, Monday’s U.S. trading session will be about positioning ahead of the Fed rather than chasing big intraday moves. Market commentary across Reuters, Bloomberg, TradingView and others highlights several focal points: ^[41]

S&P 500 futures around 6,880–6,900: A sustained break above the recent high near 6,893.75 would reinforce the bullish trend; failure here may signal pre‑Fed profit‑taking. ^[42]
Nasdaq 100 futures near 25,800: Leadership from AI and software names remains critical; watch how Confluent, Broadcom, Adobe and Netflix trade intraday. ^[43]
10‑year Treasury yield around 4.15%: A further rise could tighten financial conditions and weigh on growth stocks, even if futures remain green. ^[44]
Fed communication risk: The wording of Wednesday’s statement and Powell’s press conference may matter more than the cut itself, especially for 2026 rate‑path expectations. ^[45]

For now, U.S. stock futures on December 8, 2025 are signaling a cautiously positive open, with markets broadly aligned around a December rate cut but highly sensitive to any hint that the Fed could slow or pause easing next year.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets and prices mentioned are approximate and may have moved since the time of writing.