As of the close of trading on 8 December 2025, Lazard, Inc. (NYSE: LAZ) is a curious mix of strong operating momentum, ambitious long‑term targets and a suddenly weaker share price.
LAZ recently traded around $50.9, down roughly 7% on the day from a prior close near $54.75, according to intraday quote data and MarketBeat’s real‑time feed. [1] Earlier in Monday’s session, the stock was highlighted as trading down about 4.7% on unusually light volume, with only ~114,000 shares changing hands versus a typical volume of around 1.0 million. [2]
Yet the sell‑off comes just weeks after Lazard reported record adjusted revenue, record advisory and asset management metrics, and rolled out a series of strategic initiatives in emerging markets, ETFs and regional expansion.
This article pulls together the latest news, earnings, forecasts and valuation views on Lazard stock as of 8 December 2025.
Q3 2025: Earnings Beat on Adjusted Metrics, Despite GAAP Revenue Decline
Lazard’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on 23 October, showed a company leaning into its dual‑engine model of Financial Advisory and Asset Management. [3]
Headline numbers (Q3 2025): [4]
- GAAP net revenue: $748 million (down 5% year over year from $785 million)
- Record adjusted net revenue: $725 million (up 12% year over year from $646 million)
- GAAP net income: $71 million vs. $108 million a year earlier (‑34%)
- GAAP diluted EPS: $0.65 vs. $1.02 (‑36%)
- Adjusted net income: $62 million vs. $40 million (+56%)
- Adjusted diluted EPS: $0.56 vs. $0.38 (+47%)
The gap between GAAP and adjusted figures is largely driven by restructuring charges and other non‑recurring items. On an adjusted basis, Lazard’s business is clearly moving in the right direction.
Segment performance:
- Financial Advisory
- GAAP revenue: $427 million, up 15% YoY
- Adjusted revenue: $422 million, up 14% YoY [5]
- Activity was supported by high‑profile mandates, including transactions for Ferrero (acquisition of WK Kellogg Co), Keurig Dr Pepper (a major coffee deal and planned separation), and a range of restructuring and sovereign advisory engagements. [6]
- Asset Management
Lazard’s assets under management (AUM) hit $265 billion as of 30 September 2025, up 7% from a year earlier and 17% year‑to‑date, reflecting a combination of market appreciation and net inflows. [9]
Despite the GAAP revenue decline, both adjusted profit and advisory and asset management trends surprised to the upside versus market expectations. Reuters and other data providers reported adjusted EPS of $0.56 versus consensus forecasts of roughly $0.44–$0.45, implying a mid‑20s percentage earnings surprise. [10]
Cost Discipline, Capital Returns and the 2030 Strategy
Lazard’s Q3 release also gave investors more color on its medium‑term targets and cost structure. [11]
- The adjusted compensation ratio (compensation and benefits as a percentage of adjusted net revenue) was 65.5% in Q3, slightly better than the 66.0% a year earlier.
- The adjusted non‑compensation ratio was 20.5%, down from 21.4% year‑over‑year.
- Management reiterated long‑term goals of driving the compensation ratio to 60% or below and the non‑comp ratio into a 16–20% range, depending on market conditions.
In Q3 alone, Lazard returned $60 million to shareholders through: [12]
- $47 million in cash dividends
- A modest $1 million in share repurchases
- $12 million in tax‑settlement share withholding tied to equity compensation
On 27 October, Lazard’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on 14 November 2025 to shareholders of record on 3 November. [13] At today’s share price, that equates to an annualized yield just under 4%.
The company’s “Lazard 2030” plan, detailed in its Q3 investor presentation, targets doubling revenue by 2030 while delivering 10–15% annual shareholder returns through growth, margin improvement and disciplined capital allocation. [14] That ambition is being backed by:
- Hiring: 20 new Managing Directors in 2025 across advisory, including a strengthened global Industrials franchise. [15]
- Capital returns: Ongoing dividends and selective buybacks. [16]
- Investments in technology and AI, mentioned in the investor slides as tools to drive productivity and insight. [17]
Asset Management: AUM Growth, New CEO and Emerging Markets Push
Lazard’s asset management arm is clearly a strategic focus and a key part of the equity story for LAZ.
AUM Momentum and EMKT ETF Launch
On 12 November 2025, Lazard reported October AUM of $267.8 billion, up from $264.5 billion a month earlier. The move reflected $6.9 billion of market appreciation, $1.4 billion in net outflows and $2.2 billion of FX headwinds. [18]
A few weeks earlier, Lazard Asset Management (LAM) announced the launch of the Lazard Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund ETF (NYSE: EMKT), created via a conversion of the Lazard Emerging Markets Core Equity Portfolio. The actively managed ETF is designed to offer “high‑conviction” access to emerging markets, building on more than three decades of EM investing at the firm. [19]
LAM emphasized that EMKT aims to capture structural trends such as urbanization, rising middle classes and shifting consumption patterns across emerging economies, while actively managing risk. [20]
Leadership Changes and New EM Debt Co‑Head
Leadership in the unit is also evolving:
- On 1 December 2025, Lazard CEO and Chairman Peter Orszag formally welcomed Chris Hogbin as the new Chief Executive Officer of Lazard Asset Management. Orszag’s note described Hogbin as an “accomplished global business leader” with a deep focus on investment performance and culture. [21]
- On 8 December 2025, Lazard announced that Alex Kozhemiakin joined as Managing Director and Co‑Head of Emerging Markets Debt, partnering with Denise Simon and reporting into the firm’s fixed income leadership. Kozhemiakin, a 25‑year EM debt veteran from Macquarie, Standish, Putnam and Citicorp, is tasked with expanding Lazard’s emerging‑markets fixed‑income capabilities at a time the firm sees attractive valuations and improving fundamentals in the asset class. [22]
These moves, coupled with the EMKT ETF launch and rising AUM, reinforce the message that Lazard views asset management as a durable, scalable fee engine to complement its more cyclical advisory business.
Global Advisory Footprint: Dealmaking Revival and Abu Dhabi Expansion
On the advisory side, the story is one of reviving M&A and a more global footprint.
Reuters reported that Lazard’s Q3 profit beat was driven by a resurgence in dealmaking, with adjusted financial advisory revenue rising 14% to $422 million, a company record for a third quarter. [23] Highlighted mandates included:
- Ferrero’s $3.1 billion acquisition of WK Kellogg Co
- Corteva Agriscience’s planned restructuring and separation
- Large‑scale capital structure and sovereign advisory assignments across Europe and emerging markets. [24]
Lazard’s restructuring and liability management practice also remains a key differentiator. Recent mandates referenced in Lazard materials and its restructuring page include work for Altice France, Altice International, LivePerson and several distressed or highly leveraged issuers. [25]
Geographically, the firm is expanding:
- In April 2025, Lazard opened a financial advisory office in Abu Dhabi, its primary advisory hub in the UAE, appointing former HSBC banker Hussain Altajir as CEO of Lazard Financial Advisory in the UAE. CEO Peter Orszag called the UAE a country of “strategic importance and remarkable opportunity,” citing its growing base of sovereign wealth funds and high‑net‑worth investors. [26]
This regional build‑out dovetails with Lazard’s push to grow in markets where cross‑border M&A, capital markets issuance and restructuring activity are likely to increase over the coming cycle.
Balance Sheet and Debt Strategy: Extending the Curve
Beyond earnings and growth, Lazard has also been active in refining its capital structure.
A July 2025 analysis of Lazard’s bond transactions noted that Lazard Group LLC redeemed $164.3 million of 3.75% senior notes due February 2025 ahead of schedule, replacing them with a $400 million issuance of 6.00% senior notes due 2031. [27]
Key takeaways from that refinancing: [28]
- It eliminates 2025 refinancing risk, pushing maturities further out the curve.
- Lazard executed the transaction against a liquidity buffer of roughly $978 million (as of mid‑2025) while still returning about $235 million to shareholders in the first half of 2025.
- The firm targets a debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio around 3.5x, consistent with investment‑grade discipline.
The trade‑off is higher interest expense due to the 6% coupon, but it locks in long‑term funding at a time of elevated but stabilizing rates. For equity holders, the move reinforces that management is prioritizing balance‑sheet resiliency alongside capital returns.
What Wall Street Thinks: Consensus Rating “Hold,” Modest Upside
Despite Monday’s pullback, Wall Street’s view of Lazard is cautious but not bearish.
Across major data providers:
- MarketBeat shows a “Hold” consensus based on 11 analysts, with 3 Buy, 6 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. The average 12‑month price target is $55, implying about 8% upside from the recent ~$50.9 share price; targets range from $46 to $61. [29]
- StockAnalysis reports a similar picture: 8 analysts, consensus “Hold” and an average target of $54.88, with a low of $40 and a high of $61, implying roughly 7–8% upside. [30]
- Public.com aggregates 7 analysts with a Hold rating and a 2025 price prediction around $54.43. [31]
- Fintel lists a slightly higher average one‑year target of about $56.39, with estimates spanning roughly $38 to $68. [32]
In addition to targets, StockAnalysis’ forecast model points to a step‑up in earnings power: [33]
- Revenue 2025 (consensus): $3.06 billion, roughly flat (+0.3%) vs. 2024
- Revenue 2026 (consensus): $3.62 billion, up about 18% vs. 2025
- EPS 2025 (consensus): $2.55, modestly below 2024
- EPS 2026 (consensus): $3.95, implying roughly 55% EPS growth from 2025
On these numbers, the implied forward P/E multiple for 2026 is in the low‑teens (~13x), noticeably cheaper than Lazard’s current trailing multiple.
Valuation: Dividend Yield and Perceived Undervaluation
Monday’s slump has pushed Lazard’s valuation metrics to interesting territory:
- Recent articles using MarketBeat data cite trailing P/E ratios around 20–22x, depending on the specific pricing snapshot, with a dividend yield in the 3.7–3.9% range and a payout ratio near 79%. [34]
- Lazard’s debt‑to‑equity ratio of ~1.9, current ratio of 2.6 and market beta around 1.4 underscore that this is a leveraged but mainstream financial stock with above‑market volatility. [35]
On the intrinsic value side, Simply Wall St’s recent analysis (5 December 2025) argued that: [36]
- Lazard’s share price had climbed about 10% over the prior month, outperforming the broader market.
- At a recent close of $53.47, LAZ traded roughly 8.1% below their estimated fair value of $58.17, leading them to label the stock “undervalued” on their narrative framework.
That view is not universal—remember, a meaningful minority of Wall Street still rates the stock Sell—but it does show that some valuation models see more upside than the average broker price target suggests.
Ownership Trends: Institutions Add, Insiders Trim
Ownership data adds more nuance:
- A 6 December 2025 MarketBeat report highlighted that Russell Investments Group Ltd. increased its LAZ position by 27.4% in Q2 2025, to 115,962 shares worth roughly $5.56 million, representing about 0.10% of the company. Overall, institutional investors own about 54.8% of Lazard’s stock. [37]
- The same piece noted that insiders have been net sellers over the last quarter, including CEO Peter Orszag’s sale of 32,475 shares, part of total insider sales of 108,092 shares (~$6.0 million). [38]
Institutional accumulation and insider selling can both be perfectly rational—institutions may be rotating into a perceived value opportunity while insiders diversify after stock price strength—but the pattern is something fundamental investors tend to track carefully.
Key Risks and Catalysts for LAZ Stock
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to drive Lazard’s share price:
1. M&A and capital markets cycle
Lazard is highly sensitive to global dealmaking volumes, equity markets and financing conditions. A sustained recovery in global M&A and restructuring activity is a clear tailwind; a renewed slowdown in 2026 would pressure advisory fees. [39]
2. Asset management flows and performance
With nearly $268 billion of AUM and new products like EMKT and EM debt strategies, net flows and investment performance will be critical. Persistent outflows or underperformance would challenge the asset management growth story, whereas strong EM and global equity markets could magnify earnings leverage. [40]
3. Execution on cost and 2030 targets
Management’s credibility on driving compensation and non‑comp ratios down toward targets, while still hiring and investing, will influence both valuation multiples and investor patience with the 2030 revenue‑doubling plan. [41]
4. Interest rates and credit markets
Lazard’s debt refinancing has pushed maturities out but at a higher coupon. If rates stay higher for longer, interest expense will be more meaningful; if rates fall, the 6% 2031 notes may look expensive in hindsight. [42]
5. Regulatory and geopolitical risk
As a global advisor present in sensitive sectors and sovereign work, Lazard is exposed to regulatory changes, sanctions regimes and geopolitical shocks that can both create opportunities (restructuring, sovereign advisory) and disruptions.
Bottom Line: A Strong Franchise Marked “Hold” by the Street
As of 8 December 2025, Lazard stock sits at an interesting intersection:
- The business fundamentals—especially on an adjusted basis—are improving, with record advisory and asset management metrics, growing AUM and an ambitious long‑term strategy to double revenue by 2030. [43]
- The firm continues to return cash through a roughly 4% dividend yield and modest buybacks, while also investing in new leadership, emerging‑markets capabilities and geographic expansion. [44]
- Wall Street’s consensus is firmly at “Hold”, with most price targets clustered in the mid‑ to high‑$50s and pointing to mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. [45]
- Monday’s 7%+ sell‑off has pushed valuation metrics to more attractive levels, at least relative to forward growth forecasts and intrinsic value estimates like those published by Simply Wall St. [46]
For investors, the core question is whether Lazard’s combination of:
- cyclical but improving advisory revenue,
- recurring asset management fees,
- a credible cost and capital plan, and
- a solid (if leveraged) balance sheet
is enough to justify taking the other side of a market that currently sees the stock as a hold rather than a clear buy.
What is clear from the latest data is that Lazard is not a sleepy legacy franchise: it is actively hiring, expanding, restructuring its balance sheet and building out emerging‑markets and ETF offerings, even as it navigates an uneven macro and dealmaking environment.
References
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