Telstra Group Limited’s share price has quietly turned into one of the standout performers on the ASX 200 in 2025 – and today it’s doing that while sitting under the glare of a high‑stakes parliamentary inquiry into Australia’s triple‑zero emergency call system.
As of the close on 9 December 2025, Telstra shares finished at A$4.91 on the ASX, down about 0.8% for the day but still near recent highs after a strong run‑up through the year. [1] Over the last 12 months, the stock is up roughly 23–24%, handily beating both the broader ASX 200 and many other blue chips such as BHP, Coles and Westpac. [2]
At the same time, Telstra is being questioned in Canberra over a deadly failure to connect a triple‑zero call – an event that is rapidly becoming a central risk factor for the stock. [3]
Below is a rundown of where Telstra stands today: the latest share‑price action, fresh developments from the inquiry, updated buy‑back and dividend commentary, and how analysts now see the stock.
Telstra share price on 9 December 2025: strong year, mild pull‑back
Intraday data from StockAnalysis shows Telstra trading at about A$4.90 at 12:32pm AEST, before closing at A$4.91. That’s slightly below Monday’s close of A$4.95, when the share price rose around 1.2%. [4]
Key performance markers:
- 1‑year performance: Around +23–24%, including Monday’s gains, placing Telstra well ahead of the ASX 200 and most telco peers. [5]
- 2025 year‑to‑date: Estimates from Motley Fool and Stocklight put Telstra up more than 20% in calendar 2025 alone. [6]
- Near 52‑week highs: Price history shows Telstra trading above A$5.10 in mid‑November, leaving today’s price only a few percent below its recent peak. [7]
In short, Telstra is behaving less like a sleepy “bond proxy” and more like a growth‑plus‑income name this year.
Today’s big story: triple‑zero deaths and political heat
The most significant new development on 9 December 2025 is not in Telstra’s financials but in Parliament House.
Evidence at the Triple Zero Service Outage inquiry
A live Guardian blog from Canberra reports that CEO Vicki Brady told a parliamentary committee that Telstra knew on 24 September that a person had died after failing to connect to triple zero – but this was not raised directly with Communications Minister Anika Wells in two subsequent meetings. [8]
Key points from the inquiry coverage and related reporting:
- Telstra operates the triple‑zero network and was notified by NSW Ambulance on the morning of 24 September that a caller who could not connect had died. [9]
- Telstra briefed the federal communications department and regulators on the same day but, according to Brady’s evidence, relied on them to inform the minister. [10]
- A companion report from SBS notes that TPG Telecom told the same inquiry there may be a second fatality linked to a Samsung handset that could not connect to triple zero on its network. TPG says it was notified by Telstra about the incident in Wentworth Falls and that tens of thousands of older Samsung phones may need updates or replacement. [11]
- Earlier, the Guardian reported that the federal government plans tougher laws, including an independent guardian for the triple‑zero network and new obligations for telcos to provide real‑time outage updates. [12]
This comes on top of heightened scrutiny after Optus outages linked to multiple deaths and fresh concern after a recent outage left around 14,000 Optus customers in Victoria unable to call emergency services because of a cut cable in a Telstra pit. [13]
Why it matters for Telstra’s valuation
For investors, this is less about immediate earnings and more about:
- Regulatory risk: New triple‑zero rules could require additional investment, higher reporting burden, and possible penalties if regulators find the industry fell short of obligations. [14]
- Reputational risk: Telstra has carefully repositioned itself as a dependable, premium‑priced network. Association with fatal emergency‑call failures, even when device vendors and other telcos share the blame, cuts against that positioning. [15]
So far, the share‑price reaction has been modest – today’s 0.8% dip is small compared with the year’s gains – but investors are now pricing in at least some probability of regulatory tightening and higher compliance costs.
FY25 in review: profit jump, buy‑backs and cost cuts
Away from the inquiry, Telstra’s fundamental story over the last 12–18 months has been one of earnings recovery and capital returns.
Strong FY25 headline numbers
For the year to 30 June 2025, Telstra reported:
- Statutory net profit of around A$2.3 billion, up about 30–34% on the prior year (figures vary slightly by source and profit definition), driven by stronger mobile and fixed‑line performance and the absence of large one‑off costs. [16]
- Underlying EBITDA of about A$8.6 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of underlying growth. [17]
- Earnings per share (EPS) of 18.9 cents, according to Telstra’s FY25 annual report. [18]
- Return on invested capital (ROIC) around 8.5%, up from previous years. [19]
News.com.au highlights that profit growth was boosted by mobile and internet price rises of roughly A$3–5 per month for many plans, plus aggressive cost‑cutting that removed more than 3,200 roles and trimmed operating costs by about 6%. [20]
Divestment and buy‑backs
Telstra is also reshaping its portfolio:
- It sold 75% of cloud consultancy Versent to Infosys for about A$233 million, with proceeds helping fund buy‑backs. [21]
- In August, Telstra announced a new A$1 billion on‑market share buy‑back, following a A$750 million buy‑back completed in June 2025. [22]
- Recent regulatory filings show steady execution: as of early December, Telstra has already repurchased well over 100 million shares, with TipRanks‑summarised disclosures citing cumulative totals above 115 million shares and ongoing daily buy‑backs. [23]
Buy‑backs, combined with rising dividends, are central to Telstra’s capital‑management story and help support per‑share earnings and dividend growth, assuming profits continue to rise.
Dividends and income appeal: why Telstra is being called a “retiree’s dream”
Telstra’s income proposition is one of the big reasons the stock now features prominently in retirement and dividend portfolios.
Where the dividend stands today
For FY25, Telstra declared:
- Total dividend:19 cents per share, fully franked – made up of a 9.5‑cent interim and 9.5‑cent final dividend. [24]
At a share price around A$4.90–4.95, that implies:
- Cash dividend yield: roughly 3.9%.
- Grossed‑up yield (including franking credits): about 5.5%, according to Stocklight’s calculations for FY25. [25]
That puts Telstra’s yield above the telecom sector average and makes it competitive with many income‑focused ETFs and bank stocks. [26]
Broker forecasts for future payouts
Recent broker commentary summarised by Motley Fool, Webull and other outlets points to a broadly bullish view on Telstra’s dividend trajectory:
- Macquarie reportedly has an “outperform” rating on Telstra with a A$5.04 price target, and is forecasting 20 cents per share in dividends for FY26 and 21 cents for FY27. At around A$4.90 per share, that equates to forward cash yields a little above 4%. [27]
- UBS is even more optimistic, with forecasts suggesting Telstra’s annual dividend could rise steadily to around 30 cents per share by FY30, implying a grossed‑up yield approaching the high‑single‑digits if today’s share price were unchanged. [28]
Motley Fool commentators have repeatedly described Telstra as a “retiree’s dream”, arguing that the company’s steady earnings, full franking and potential for dividend growth make it attractive for long‑term income investors – provided they’re comfortable with the regulatory and competitive risks. [29]
Of course, these are forecasts, not guarantees. Payout growth depends heavily on earnings growth, regulatory outcomes and management’s capital‑allocation priorities.
Strategy for the AI decade: Connected Future 30 and the Aura network
Behind the numbers sits Telstra’s new five‑year strategy, Connected Future 30 (CF30), which runs to 2030.
From T25 to Connected Future 30
On 27 May 2025, Telstra unveiled CF30 as the successor to its earlier T22 and T25 plans. The strategy aims to: [30]
- Double down on connectivity as the core business.
- Treat the network as a programmable product, rather than just infrastructure. [31]
- Invest heavily in low‑latency, AI‑ready infrastructure, including fibre and subsea cables. [32]
- Use AI and automation to cut operating costs, improve customer service and move towards highly autonomous networks. [33]
TelecomTV and Omdia both characterise CF30 as a bold attempt to stay ahead in an AI‑driven landscape by merging advanced network technology with more flexible commercial models. [34]
Aura: the A$1.6 billion fibre “AI superhighway”
A centrepiece of this strategy is Aura, Telstra’s new intercity fibre backbone:
- Telstra has committed around A$1.6 billion to build the network, aimed at ultra‑high‑capacity city‑to‑city links optimised for data‑centre and AI workloads. [35]
- In September and October 2025, Telstra officially launched the Sydney–Melbourne coastal route, with testing showing simulated capacities above 80 terabits per second over long distances and live trials delivering hundreds of gigabits per second per fibre strand. [36]
- An Oxford Economics‑backed report commissioned by Telstra suggests the Aura network could ultimately add around A$29 billion to Australia’s GDP over time by enabling more advanced digital services. [37]
Independent coverage frames Aura as part of a broader infrastructure race to serve AI data centres and hyperscale cloud providers, with Telstra International separately targeting up to 800 Tbps of capacity on its future global network and pursuing a full network “digital twin” for real‑time optimisation. [38]
For shareholders, Aura and CF30 are about long‑term growth and moat expansion, but they also mean ongoing heavy capital expenditure and technology risk.
AI, job cuts and cost‑out: the other side of the strategy
CF30 is not just about shiny fibre; it’s also about shrinking the cost base.
- At its May 2025 investor day, Telstra said it expects its workforce to shrink by 2030 as it leans “hard” into AI across customer service, software development and network operations. The company identified more than A$2 billion in annual operating expenses in customer‑facing functions alone as a potential area for AI‑driven efficiencies. [39]
- News.com.au’s coverage of FY25 results emphasised that profit growth already owes a lot to job cuts and price rises, with more than 3,200 roles removed in the latest year. [40]
From an investment perspective, this supports the margin and dividend story, but it also raises execution, labour‑relations and reputational risks if the public narrative becomes “higher prices and fewer staff” at a time when triple‑zero reliability and customer service are under political scrutiny.
Cyber‑security and extortion attempts: background noise, not a crisis (so far)
In October, Telstra was named in media reports as a target of the ShinyHunters extortion group, which had also threatened Qantas and others as part of a broader campaign linked to Salesforce systems. Telstra has said it was not hacked and that its own systems were not breached. [41]
At this stage:
- There is no evidence of a major data breach at Telstra itself arising from this incident.
- The episode does, however, underline the ongoing cyber‑risk inherent in running critical national infrastructure and reinforces the case for continued cyber‑security capex and robust governance.
For valuation purposes, the incident has not materially changed the investment thesis, but investors are clearly more sensitive to cyber headlines after previous high‑profile breaches at other Australian corporates.
Analyst sentiment and valuation on 9 December 2025
Price targets cluster around the A$5 mark
Various data aggregators and broker summaries paint a broadly consistent picture of where analysts think Telstra is headed:
- Average 12‑month price target around A$4.9–5.1, according to sources such as Fintel and TradingView, with a typical range from the low A$4.20s up to about A$5.40. [42]
- Macquarie: “Outperform” rating with a A$5.04 target. [43]
- Morningstar: recent research lifted its fair value estimate for Telstra by about 8% to A$5.40, citing strong earnings resilience and a lower cost of capital. [44]
TipRanks and other platforms summarise the consensus as a “Moderate Buy”, with a spread of Buy and Hold recommendations and virtually no outright Sell ratings at present. [45]
Valuation metrics
Using Telstra’s FY25 EPS of 18.9 cents and today’s closing price around A$4.91, the stock trades on a trailing P/E of roughly 26×, slightly above both its own historical average and the broader Australian telecom sector. [46]
Stocklight’s quantitative snapshot highlights:
- P/E: about 26×, higher than the sector average (roughly 21×), characterised as “unattractive” on that metric.
- Dividend yield: around 3.9% cash, above the sector average, labelled “attractive” from an income perspective. [47]
Simply Wall St notes that Telstra’s total shareholder return over the past five years is close to 99%, with a 12‑month TSR of about 32% once dividends are included. [48] That’s a strong run for what is usually viewed as a defensive, low‑growth stock – and it naturally raises the question of how much future growth is already priced in.
Fundamental views: steady, not spectacular
Recent fundamental write‑ups capture a similar nuance:
- Tikr’s recent piece on Telstra’s Connected Future strategy argues that FY25 showed stable revenue and profit, supported by mobile strength and good cost control, but that enterprise demand remains soft and future growth may be gradual rather than explosive. [49]
- Simply Wall St’s latest commentary stresses that revenue and EBIT margins have been broadly flat year‑on‑year, suggesting a quality but not high‑growth earnings profile, even as the share price has outperformed. [50]
- Kalkine Media similarly frames Telstra as a steady, profitable business that appeals to investors looking for consistency more than for speculative upside. [51]
In other words, many analysts see Telstra as fairly valued to slightly undervalued on a risk‑adjusted income basis, but no longer “cheap” on classic growth metrics.
How the pieces fit together for investors as of 9 December 2025
Putting all this together, Telstra on 9 December 2025 looks like:
- A near‑blue‑chip income stock with a fully franked FY25 yield around 3.9% cash (about 5.5% grossed‑up) and credible broker forecasts for moderate dividend growth through FY26–FY30. [52]
- A disciplined capital‑return story, combining rising ordinary dividends with a A$1 billion on‑market buy‑back that is already well underway. [53]
- A strategically ambitious network player, betting A$1.6 billion on its Aura fibre “AI superhighway” and pushing towards autonomous, programmable networks over the next decade under the CF30 plan. [54]
- A business under real political and regulatory scrutiny, particularly around the reliability of the triple‑zero service and the handling of incidents that may have led to fatalities. This is the key new risk in today’s news cycle. [55]
- A stock with a solid but not bargain valuation, trading near the top of its 12‑month range on a mid‑20s earnings multiple, with consensus price targets only modestly above the current price. [56]
For income‑oriented investors, Telstra still offers a compelling combination of scale, yield, franking credits and capital returns, provided they are comfortable with regulatory, technology and execution risk.
For more growth‑oriented investors, the questions are tougher:
- Does CF30 and the Aura network deliver enough revenue and margin upside to justify a mid‑20s P/E in a highly regulated, capital‑intensive industry?
- How far could regulatory outcomes on triple‑zero and future outages eat into that upside via additional investment mandates, fines or tighter operating constraints?
Those are the debates now playing out in broker notes and among fund managers as Telstra heads into 2026.
References
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