As of December 9, 2025, The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) sits in its usual sweet spot: not a meme rocket ship, but a slow, dividend‑dripping machine that institutions, pension funds and Warren Buffett continue to hug tightly.
Today’s backdrop is a mix of solid earnings momentum, active institutional repositioning, bullish Wall Street targets – and a new legal overhang from San Francisco’s lawsuit over ultra‑processed foods.
Where Coca-Cola Stock Stands Today
Coca-Cola shares most recently closed at about $70.25, up 0.36% on Monday, December 8, 2025. That puts the stock near the middle of its 52‑week range of roughly $60.62 to $74.38, with a market capitalization around $302 billion. [1]
Key valuation and risk metrics:
- Trailing P/E ratio: ~23x earnings
- PEG ratio: ~3.9, reflecting a premium to the company’s mid‑single‑digit earnings growth outlook
- Beta: ~0.39, meaning KO typically moves far less than the broader market
- 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages: both around $69.5, with the stock trading slightly above both, signalling a gentle upward trend rather than a high‑octane breakout. [2]
From a technical perspective, StockInvest.us notes that KO is in a weak rising trend but currently rated a short‑term “sell candidate” due to recent pivot‑top signals and moving‑average crossovers. The service expects a possible 3‑month rise of about 9.5%, placing KO between $76.77 and $80.74 with 90% probability, yet warns that near‑term momentum could remain choppy. [3]
Fresh News on December 9, 2025: Institutions Shuffle Their Coca-Cola Stakes
The main KO‑specific headlines today (December 9, 2025) are about big money moving around the stock, based on 13F filings:
- Axa S.A. boosted its position in Coca-Cola by 22.7% in the second quarter, now holding about 2.35 million shares worth roughly $166 million, and helping push institutional ownership above 70%. [4]
- Daiwa Securities Group Inc. lifted its stake by 12.9% to around 748,000 shares valued near $53 million. [5]
- Fayez Sarofim & Co., a long‑time Coke bull, trimmed its KO holdings by 4.2%, selling about 740,000 shares but still owning nearly 16.9 million shares, worth roughly $1.2 billion and representing about 0.39% of Coca-Cola. KO remains its 7th‑largest portfolio position. [6]
- Ossiam sharply cut its stake by 57%, ending the quarter with 120,061 shares worth about $8.5 million. [7]
Despite these sales, institutional investors collectively own more than 70% of Coca-Cola’s shares, underlining KO’s role as a core “quality defensive” holding in large portfolios. [8]
From a market‑structure perspective, this looks like rebalancing rather than abandonment: multiple institutions are adding decisively, while a few long‑time holders are harvesting profits or reallocating.
Earnings and Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Showed Pricing Power and Margin Muscle
Coca-Cola’s third‑quarter 2025 results, reported in late October, set the fundamental backdrop for today’s trading:
- Global unit case volume: up 1%
- Net revenue: up 5% to $12.5 billion
- Organic revenue (non‑GAAP): up 6%, driven mainly by 6% price/mix growth
- Operating margin: jumped to 32.0% (from 21.2% a year ago); comparable operating margin was 31.9% vs. 30.7%
- Reported EPS: up 30% to $0.86;
- Comparable EPS: up 6% to $0.82, despite a ~6‑point currency headwind. [9]
Regionally, Coca-Cola managed:
- Flat or modestly positive volumes in North America, with strength in water, sports drinks, coffee and tea offsetting softer trademark Coke and juices.
- Solid price‑driven growth in Latin America and Europe, Middle East & Africa, though FX headwinds remain painful.
- Modest unit case declines in Asia Pacific, offset by strong pricing. [10]
Guidance and outlook from management:
- For full‑year 2025, management still expects 5–6% organic revenue growth and about 8% growth in comparable currency‑neutral EPS, translating into roughly 3% growth in comparable EPS after currency and structural headwinds. [11]
- Coca-Cola expects at least $9.8 billion of free cash flow in 2025 (excluding a previously paid fairlife contingent consideration), up from prior guidance of $9.5 billion. [12]
On capital allocation, KO continues to lean into its traditional shareholder‑friendly playbook:
- Quarterly dividend: $0.51 per share, or $2.04 annually, implying a ~2.9% yield at current prices. [13]
- The company has raised its dividend for more than 60 consecutive years, making it one of the classic Dividend Kings. [14]
New Legal Overhang: San Francisco’s Suit Over Ultra‑Processed Foods
A major storyline that emerged this month is San Francisco’s lawsuit against Big Food, which explicitly names Coca-Cola.
On December 2, 2025, the city filed a landmark suit against Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Nestlé, Kraft Heinz, General Mills and others, accusing them of knowingly engineering and aggressively marketing ultra‑processed foods that contribute to obesity, diabetes, cancer and other chronic diseases. [15]
The lawsuit:
- Compares Big Food’s alleged tactics to Big Tobacco – including targeted marketing to children and vulnerable communities.
- Argues that ultra‑processed foods (including sugary drinks) are a public health crisis and seeks financial penalties, restrictions on marketing and mandatory consumer education. [16]
Food industry groups respond that:
- There is no universally accepted scientific definition of “ultra‑processed” foods.
- Manufacturers like Coca-Cola comply with FDA safety and nutrition rules, and that litigation is an “abuse of the legal system”. [17]
For investors, this lawsuit doesn’t change tomorrow’s EPS, but it raises long‑term regulatory and reputational risk, especially as governments globally move toward sugar taxes, warning labels and school‑meal restrictions.
Analyst Sentiment on December 9, 2025: Broadly Bullish, with a Few Caveats
Despite legal noise and health‑trend headwinds, the sell‑side remains overwhelmingly positive on KO.
Street price targets and ratings
Different aggregators broadly agree on an upside skew from current levels:
- MarketBeat:
- Average price target: about $78.43
- Rating: overall “Buy”, with one “Strong Buy” and sixteen “Buy” ratings. [18]
- Benzinga’s compilation:
- Consensus target:$76.84 from 20 analysts
- Target range $70–$83, with the three most recent calls averaging about $79
- Consensus rating: “Buy”. [19]
- TipRanks:
- Average price target: roughly $79.4, implying about 13% upside
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” based on a large majority of Buy ratings and no Sells. [20]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- Mix of Moderate Buy and Strong Buy ratings, aggregated into an overall “Strong Buy”
- Average 12‑month target: about $78.15, with a high near $87. [21]
On top of that, several recent notes have nudged targets higher:
- UBS recently reiterated a Buy rating with an $82 price target, highlighting Coca-Cola’s early adoption of AI and data‑driven tools to improve forecasting, marketing and route‑to‑market execution. UBS sees AI as a multi‑year driver of margin expansion and operating efficiency. [22]
- Bank of America lifted its target from $78 to $80 while keeping a Buy rating, citing strong brand power, pricing resilience and attractive income characteristics. [23]
In other words, the mainstream analyst view as of December 9, 2025 is:
“Low‑beta defensive compounder with mid‑single‑digit growth, a well‑covered ~3% yield and high‑single‑digit annual total‑return potential.”
Short-Term Price Forecasts: Models See Modest Upside and Low Volatility
Several quantitative and technical services have weighed in on Coca-Cola’s near‑term trajectory:
- StockInvest.us expects KO to open around $70.04 on December 9, 2025, with an intraday range roughly between $69.75 and $70.75 based on recent volatility. The service flags support near $68.44 and resistance around $70.81, but maintains an overall negative short‑term evaluation despite the longer‑term rising trend. [24]
- PandaForecast projects a weighted average target around $69–70 for December 2025, with a generally positive bias and expected month‑end prices modestly above current levels. [25]
- CoinCodex, cited in a December 5 Benzinga roundup, anticipates that KO could gain up to about 12% by the end of 2025, with algorithmic models also seeing further upside into 2026 and 2030 relative to today’s price. [26]
Short version: models don’t see fireworks – they see a measured grind higher with limited volatility, which is exactly what many income investors want.
Long‑Term Forecasts to 2030: Slow and Steady, With Compounding Dividends
Longer‑horizon projections are, by nature, speculative. Still, several research outfits have published structured KO forecasts out to 2030:
24/7 Wall St 2025–2030 model
A detailed December 2025 analysis by 24/7 Wall St projects the following normalized EPS and “fair value” share prices: [27]
- 2025: EPS $3.04, price $76
- 2026: EPS $3.27, price $81.75
- 2027: EPS $3.43, price $85.75
- 2028: EPS $3.68, price $92.00
- 2029: EPS $3.89, price $97.25
- 2030: EPS $4.05, price $101.25
Their base case implies:
- High‑single‑digit price appreciation per year, plus
- A growing dividend, estimated to reach roughly $2.56 per share annually by 2030,
- For a total‑return profile in the low double digits if the model proves roughly accurate. [28]
The thesis behind these numbers leans on:
- Ongoing expansion into non‑carbonated beverages (coffee, tea, water, value‑added dairy).
- Leverage of AI, big data and digital direct‑to‑consumer (D2C) platforms.
- Strong brand equity and hyper‑local product tailoring (Inca Kola in Peru, Thums Up in India, etc.). [29]
Discounted cash-flow and valuation models
Not all valuation tools agree:
- Simply Wall St’s discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model estimates a fair value near $89.90 per share, implying KO is roughly 20% undervalued at current prices. [30]
- ValueInvesting.io, using a Peter Lynch–style framework, pegs “fair value” closer to $15–16 per share, suggesting KO is severely overvalued relative to its growth metrics and historical multiples. [31]
The gap between these models highlights the subjectivity baked into long‑term forecasting: change a few assumptions about growth, discount rates or terminal multiples, and your “intrinsic value” swings wildly.
Strategy and Growth Drivers: Beyond Classic Soda
Recent analyses converge on a few structural growth themes for Coca-Cola:
- Healthier and functional beverages
- KO is pushing zero‑sugar and reduced‑sugar variants, such as Minute Maid Zero Sugar, expanded to Asia Pacific with strong early volume. [32]
- The company is leaning into sports drinks (Powerade, BODYARMOR), ready‑to‑drink tea, and value‑added dairy (fairlife in the U.S., Santa Clara in Mexico), which are growing faster than legacy colas. [33]
- Emerging markets and refranchising
- Emerging markets already contribute around two‑thirds of revenue, and KO plans further investments in Latin America, Africa and Asia. [34]
- The company is refranchising bottling operations, such as selling a controlling stake in Coca‑Cola Beverages Africa to Coca‑Cola HBC. This should make the business more capital‑light, though it will result in a roughly $1 billion impairment charge in Q4 2025 related to the Africa deal. [35]
- AI and digital execution
- UBS’s December 2025 meetings with management highlighted KO’s use of AI for demand forecasting, pricing, and marketing optimization, arguing these tools can tighten inventory, sharpen promotions and gradually lift margins over the long run. [36]
- Dividend compounding as a central part of the story
- Commentators from Nasdaq, The Motley Fool and Simply Safe Dividends consistently position Coca-Cola as a “buy‑and‑hold dividend machine” rather than a high‑growth rocket, emphasizing its 60+‑year dividend growth streak, approximate 2.8–3.0% yield, and steady mid‑single‑digit payout growth. [37]
Key Risks: Health Trends, Regulation, FX and Debt
No stock is a one‑way bet, and recent research – plus San Francisco’s lawsuit – highlights the main risk factors investors are watching.
- Health & regulatory pressure
- The San Francisco suit explicitly argues that sugary drinks and ultra‑processed foods are a public health menace, comparing the sector to Big Tobacco. [38]
- Beyond lawsuits, governments continue to explore sugar taxes, marketing restrictions and school‑meal rules, which could slow volume growth or force reformulations.
- Changing consumer tastes
- Several analyses note sluggish or declining cola volumes in developed markets, with growth instead coming from water, sports drinks, coffee and tea – categories where KO faces intense competition. [39]
- Currency and emerging‑market risk
- With roughly 65% of revenue outside the U.S., Coca-Cola is perpetually exposed to FX swings and political risk. The Q3 release explicitly called out FX headwinds and hedging costs as meaningful drags on 2025 and 2026 results. [40]
- Leverage and payout sustainability
- Benzinga’s December 5 piece flags Coca-Cola’s debt‑to‑equity ratio (around 1.3–1.5) as a concern if rates stay elevated or growth slows, along with questions around the long‑term payout ratio if earnings growth undershoots expectations. [41]
- Valuation risk
- At ~23x trailing earnings and a ~3% yield, KO is not obviously cheap. For some value‑oriented models, the stock is decidedly expensive relative to its growth, while DCF‑driven models see room for re‑rating. [42]
Is Coca-Cola Stock a Buy on December 9, 2025?
On the numbers and narratives circulating today, Coca-Cola looks like exactly what it has been for decades:
- A low‑volatility, cash‑rich consumer‑staples giant
- With modest but reliable growth driven by pricing power, brand strength and portfolio expansion
- A durable ~3% dividend yield, backed by strong free cash flow and a multi‑decade record of increases
- And analyst targets clustered in the high‑$70s to low‑$80s, implying high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over the next 12–18 months if forecasts prove roughly right. [43]
At the same time, health‑driven regulation, legal challenges like San Francisco’s lawsuit, FX headwinds and a not‑cheap valuation mean KO is unlikely to morph into a high‑growth story. For most analysts and long‑term investors writing about the stock today, Coca-Cola remains:
A classic defensive “sleep‑at‑night” holding – better suited to patient income and total‑return investors than to traders hunting for explosive upside.
References
1. stockinvest.us, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 10. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 11. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 12. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. 247wallst.com, 15. apnews.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. nam.org, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.benzinga.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. twelvedata.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. stockinvest.us, 25. pandaforecast.com, 26. www.benzinga.com, 27. 247wallst.com, 28. 247wallst.com, 29. 247wallst.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. valueinvesting.io, 32. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 33. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 34. 247wallst.com, 35. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.nasdaq.com, 38. apnews.com, 39. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 40. investors.coca-colacompany.com, 41. www.benzinga.com, 42. simplywall.st, 43. www.marketbeat.com
