Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (NYSE: INSP), a leading developer of implantable devices to treat obstructive sleep apnea, is back in the spotlight. As of December 9, 2025, the stock is trading near the upper end of its recent rebound, supported by strong third-quarter results, favorable reimbursement changes, and a series of analyst upgrades—while simultaneously facing a fresh class-action investigation and lingering questions about growth and valuation. [1]
INSP stock on December 9, 2025: price action and recent volatility
On December 9, 2025, Inspire Medical Systems shares are changing hands at about $141.72, down slightly on the day after touching an intraday high of $145.01 and a low of $140.58. Trading volume stands around 700,000 shares, reflecting continued investor interest after a volatile year.
That volatility has been notable. Just two weeks earlier, a 21% single-day surge pushed the stock to roughly $110.32 after Stifel upgraded INSP from Hold to Buy and raised its price target, citing a major positive reimbursement shift and improving earnings expectations. At that time, the stock was still down about 41% year-to-date, highlighting how sharp the prior sell-off had been. [2]
The subsequent rally, combined with today’s higher trading range, means the stock has now recovered a significant portion of those earlier losses—but not without introducing new debates about whether the rebound has gone “too far, too fast” relative to analyst targets and fundamentals. [3]
Q3 2025 earnings beat and new system rollout
A key pillar of the recent strength in INSP is solid third-quarter 2025 performance. In its official results for Q3 2025, Inspire reported: [4]
- Revenue of $224.5 million, up 10% year-over-year
- Gross margin of 85.8%, remaining well above many med-tech peers
- Net income of $9.9 million, with adjusted net income of $11.2 million
- Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.38, beating consensus estimates by a wide margin
An earnings call recap also highlighted that U.S. revenue grew about 9%, while international revenue grew an even stronger 37%, underscoring the company’s ongoing push outside its core U.S. market. [5]
Inspire also introduced the Inspire 5 system, aimed at improving surgical efficiency and patient outcomes, building on its established nerve-stimulating implant therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. Management framed Inspire 5 as a major platform enhancement designed to streamline procedures and strengthen hospital relationships—an important driver for volume growth in coming years. [6]
For investors, the Q3 numbers did two things:
- Reassured the market that growth remains intact despite macro headwinds and concerns over competition from weight-loss drugs.
- Demonstrated that the business can consistently generate high margins, which feeds into valuation models and long-term earnings power.
Reimbursement wins and Wall Street upgrades
One of the biggest catalysts for the stock’s recent rebound has been a favorable reimbursement change from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). According to a late-November report, CMS granted a roughly 50% reimbursement increase for Inspire’s Inspire V implant in hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers. [7]
This decision improves procedure economics for providers and makes the therapy more attractive for hospitals and surgeons, potentially boosting adoption. The reimbursement boost helped trigger a wave of analyst optimism:
- Stifel upgraded INSP to Buy and set a price target around $110, emphasizing the improved economics and more realistic earnings expectations for 2026. [8]
- Morgan Stanley recently shifted its rating to Equal-Weight while raising its price target to about $130, reflecting balanced risk-reward at higher prices. [9]
- Oppenheimer upgraded Inspire Medical Systems in early December and cited an average one-year price target near $128.11, with a range from approximately $81.81 to $189.00 per share. [10]
These mixed but generally constructive moves show that while analysts see upside drivers (reimbursement, technology, global expansion), they are also paying close attention to valuation after the stock’s sharp recovery.
Analyst ratings and 12-month price targets: cautious optimism
Across Wall Street, the consensus view on INSP is moderately positive but not euphoric.
Data from several analyst aggregators show:
- A mix of “Buy” and “Hold” ratings, with few or no outright “Sell” calls. One recent summary highlighted 9 Buy ratings and 8 Hold ratings, with no Sell recommendations. [11]
- An average 12-month price target in the low-to-mid $120s to low-$130s, depending on the source, with target ranges stretching roughly from the low-$80s up to the high-$180s or even near $197 at the high end. [12]
- A separate analysis piece recently noted a consensus target around $144–145, with some analysts as high as $230 and others closer to $97, underscoring wide disagreement about longer-term earnings and risk. [13]
Meanwhile, earnings estimates compiled for 2025 and 2026 imply that analysts expect continued EPS growth, with average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 rising into the mid-single-digit to low-double-digit EPS range on the back of revenue expansion and margin stability. [14]
Some algorithm-driven forecast models project INSP to trade in a rough band between the mid-$120s and low-$140s through 2025, broadly in line with many human analyst targets and not far from the current share price. [15]
Overall, the consensus picture looks like this:
- Sentiment: Cautious optimism
- Rating skew: From “Strong Buy” to “Hold,” averaging around Buy/Hold
- Target vs. price: Current price in the low-$140s is close to or slightly above many average price targets, meaning some models actually imply mild downside from here. [16]
Legal overhang: class-action investigation after steep losses
On December 8, 2025, law firm Robbins LLP announced that it is seeking INSP shareholders with “large losses” to potentially lead a securities class-action lawsuit against Inspire Medical Systems. [17]
The firm’s release indicates that the investigation is focused on whether the company or its executives made misleading statements or failed to disclose key information that contributed to the sharp decline in share price earlier in the year. While such law-firm press releases are fairly common after big drawdowns in growth stocks, they still represent a headline risk and could:
- Increase legal and compliance costs;
- Add uncertainty around disclosure practices;
- Weigh on investor sentiment, especially among risk-averse institutions.
At this stage, the investigation is in its early phase, and no outcome is predetermined. Nonetheless, it adds another layer of complexity for investors trying to evaluate INSP’s risk profile alongside its growth narrative. [18]
Key risks: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, competition and valuation
Even with positive Q3 results and reimbursement improvements, several structural risks remain in focus:
1. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and sleep apnea
Inspire Medical targets patients with obstructive sleep apnea, a condition closely linked to obesity. Analysts have warned that the growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (like semaglutide-based therapies) could reduce the pool of patients seeking surgical or device-based solutions. Physician feedback reported in recent analysis suggests some patients are delaying Inspire therapy to first see if GLP-1 drugs resolve their symptoms. [19]
2. Competition from CPAP and other therapies
Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) machines remain the first-line treatment for many patients. Inspire’s implant is typically reserved for those who cannot tolerate CPAP or fail to achieve adequate benefit. Any improvements in CPAP technology, or new non-invasive alternatives, could limit Inspire’s addressable market or slow growth.
3. Execution risk and international expansion
The company is relying heavily on building out international adoption, which brings regulatory, reimbursement, and execution risk. Fast growth in international markets can be a double-edged sword if sales infrastructure or training cannot keep up. [20]
4. Valuation and expectations
After the recent rally, INSP is again trading at a premium valuation relative to many medical device peers, supported by high margins and double-digit revenue growth. That premium leaves less room for error: any stumble in procedure volumes, reimbursement, or product rollout could trigger outsized share price reactions. [21]
5. Legal and regulatory risk
The ongoing class-action investigation and the company’s reliance on favorable reimbursement decisions mean that legal outcomes and policy changes can materially affect the stock. [22]
What today’s setup means for investors
As of December 9, 2025, Inspire Medical Systems sits at a crossroads:
- Fundamentals: Solid Q3 results, strong margins, growing international business, and new technology (Inspire 5) support the core growth story. [23]
- Tailwinds: A substantial reimbursement increase and multiple analyst upgrades have improved sentiment and procedure economics. [24]
- Headwinds: A fresh class-action investigation, competition from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and other therapies, and a valuation that now hovers near or above many 12-month price targets. [25]
For long-term investors, INSP now looks like a high-quality but higher-risk med-tech name: one anchored by a differentiated therapy and strong margins, yet exposed to changing treatment patterns, reimbursement frameworks, and legal uncertainties.
Anyone considering the stock should closely monitor:
- Future quarters’ procedure volumes and revenue growth, particularly outside the U.S.;
- Updates on CMS and private-payer reimbursement;
- Developments in the class-action investigation;
- How GLP-1 adoption affects patient flow in sleep apnea clinics.
References
1. investors.inspiresleep.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. investors.inspiresleep.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.perplexity.ai, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. simplywall.st, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. coincodex.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. investors.inspiresleep.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com
