Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) is heading into Wednesday’s U.S. session in that awkward zone where fundamentals still look strong, but sentiment is clearly bruised.
On Tuesday, December 9, Snowflake stock slipped again and then barely moved after the closing bell, as investors digested a new wave of insider selling disclosures, fresh institutional buying, and a strategic AI-data deal with Ataccama — all against the backdrop of a still‑sensitive market for high‑multiple AI software names. [1]
Here’s what actually happened after the bell on December 9, and the key things traders and longer‑term investors should know before the stock market opens on December 10, 2025.
1. How Snowflake Stock Traded on December 9, 2025
Regular session
On Tuesday, December 9, Snowflake shares:
- Opened around $223
- Traded between roughly $220.10 and $225.26
- Closed near $222.60, down about 1.2% from Monday’s $225.31 close
- Saw volume around 6.1 million shares, about 15–16% above average [2]
In other words, it was another down day, but not a crash. The stock is now roughly 17% below its early December high near $268, reached just before its Q3 earnings release. [3]
After‑hours trading
After the bell, extended‑hours quotes hovered close to the closing price — around $222–223, with no big spike in volume or price swings. [4]
That tells you something important: the new headlines hitting after the close were incremental, not shock events like an unexpected guidance cut or management change.
Short‑term trend
Simply Wall St estimates that Snowflake has dropped roughly 13% over the last seven days and about 14% over the past month, even though it remains well above its 2024 lows. [5]
So we’re not in “company is broken” territory; we’re in “valuation and expectations are being repriced” territory.
2. Why Snowflake Is Under Pressure: The Post‑Earnings Hangover
To understand Tuesday night, you have to rewind to last week’s earnings.
On December 3, Snowflake reported Q3 FY26 results:
- Revenue: about $1.21 billion, up ~29% year over year, slightly above Wall Street estimates around $1.18 billion
- EPS (non‑GAAP): roughly $0.35, beating expectations by several cents and up strongly from last year’s ~$0.20 [6]
So far, so good. The problem wasn’t the quarter — it was the outlook.
- Q4 product revenue guidance:$1.195–$1.20 billion, implying ~27% YoY growth. That’s a bit ahead of consensus (~$1.18 billion) but below the 30%+ acceleration many growth investors wanted. [7]
- Margin guidance: management signaled lower operating margins (~7% for Q4 vs ~11% in Q3) as the company ramps AI‑related investment, even while targeting full‑year free‑cash‑flow (FCF) margin around 25%. [8]
The market’s reaction was brutal:
- Shares fell about 8% in after‑hours trading immediately after the report. [9]
- They then slumped roughly 10–11% on December 4, wiping out around $7–10 billion in market value. [10]
Analysts and commentators framed it as a classic “great company, disappointing trajectory” moment: strong growth and cash generation, but decelerating product revenue and tighter margin guidance at a time when Snowflake still trades at a very rich multiple versus peers. [11]
That’s the overhang that still sits on the stock going into December 10.
3. New December 9 Drivers: Insider Sales, Institutional Buying and the Ataccama AI Deal
3.1. Insider Form 144 filings: scary headlines, small numbers
The most eye‑catching after‑hours headlines on December 9 were a series of Form 144 insider sale notices:
- Co‑founder & director Benoît Dageville filed to sell 814 shares under a pre‑arranged 10b5‑1 trading plan with an approximate sale date of December 9. [12]
- EVP Christian Kleinerman filed to sell 548 shares, coming from restricted stock that vested on December 8 as part of compensation. [13]
- A separate filing disclosed plans to sell about 1,993 shares acquired via restricted stock vesting. [14]
All of these filings reference an outstanding share count of roughly 342 million shares, meaning each planned sale represents a tiny fraction of 1% of the company. [15]
MarketBeat also highlighted that Snowflake’s stock was down around 1% during Tuesday’s session “after an insider sold shares,” with intraday trading dipping to about $220.10 and last trading near $222.98 on above‑average volume. [16]
So, yes: insiders are selling, but:
- The absolute size is small.
- The sales are mostly compensation‑driven and/or under pre‑planned trading programs.
- The optics are worse than the actual economic impact.
If you’re watching futures and pre‑market quotes on Wednesday, the real question is whether traders continue to treat any insider filing as another excuse to sell, or start to discount these as routine.
3.2. Big money is still buying the dip
On the other side of the tape, several institutional investors disclosed much larger Snowflake purchases, with filings and coverage hitting on December 8–9:
- Natixis boosted its Snowflake stake by 922.8% in Q2, up to 65,890 shares worth about $14.7 million. [17]
- Bank of Nova Scotia increased its holdings by 570.7%, to 220,751 shares, valued around $49.4 million — roughly 0.07% of Snowflake’s shares outstanding. [18]
- Ossiam raised its position by 348.3%, adding 17,717 shares to reach 22,803 shares valued near $5.1 million. [19]
MarketBeat estimates that about 65% of Snowflake’s float is held by hedge funds and other institutional investors, underscoring that this remains a heavily “owned” growth name rather than an abandoned story. [20]
So the tape on December 9 is not just insiders quietly exiting; it’s also large asset managers leaning into the volatility.
3.3. New Ataccama investment: Snowflake doubles down on “trusted AI data”
The other big corporate development on December 9: Snowflake Ventures is investing in Ataccama, a “data trust” company focused on data quality, governance, lineage and observability — basically all the unglamorous stuff that makes AI safe and reliable. [21]
Key points from Ataccama and Snowflake’s own announcements:
- The deal is a strategic equity investment by Snowflake Ventures, deepening an existing partnership. [22]
- Ataccama’s tools integrate with the Snowflake AI Data Cloud, providing a “trust layer” to ensure data quality and governance for AI models and agents. [23]
- The companies explicitly frame the investment as a response to rising regulatory and enterprise demands for explainable, well‑governed data in AI use cases. [24]
This comes on top of Snowflake’s earlier AI moves:
- A $200 million multi‑year partnership with Anthropic, bringing Claude models directly into Snowflake Cortex and the new “Snowflake Intelligence” agent. [25]
- Deepening ties with AWS and Google’s Gemini, plus large‑scale go‑to‑market agreements with partners like Accenture, which has launched a dedicated Snowflake business group. [26]
In practical terms, the Ataccama deal doesn’t change tomorrow’s earnings, but it reinforces the long‑term AI thesis: Snowflake wants to be the place where sensitive enterprise data lives, and where AI models safely come to that data — not the other way around.
4. Fundamentals and Valuation: High‑Quality Growth, High Expectations
4.1. Current business profile
As of the end of Q3 FY26 (October 31, 2025), Snowflake’s own investor relations site highlights: [27]
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO):$7.88 billion, up strongly year‑on‑year
- Net revenue retention:125%, meaning existing customers spend 25% more than a year earlier
- $1M+ customers:688 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12‑month product revenue
- Forbes Global 2000 customers:766
Those are elite‑level SaaS metrics: sticky, expanding customers; long‑duration contracted revenue; and broad penetration into large enterprises.
Earnings data from Q3 also shows: [28]
- Revenue still growing high‑20s percent.
- Non‑GAAP EPS of ~$0.35 vs expectations close to breakeven.
- Free cash flow margins targeted around 25% for FY26.
So the underlying machine is undeniably strong; the debate is how much you should pay for it.
4.2. Valuation: “priced for perfection”?
Simply Wall St ran a deep valuation piece on December 9 and came out quite skeptical: [29]
- Their discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates fair value at about $163 per share, implying Snowflake could be ~38% overvalued vs the current low‑$220s price.
- They estimate Snowflake trades around 17.6× trailing sales, versus an IT sector average near 2.7× and a “fair” multiple of about 12.7× for Snowflake’s specific growth and risk profile.
Their verdict: OVERVALUED, even after the recent pullback.
Other fundamental models cited in the TS2 analysis similarly classify Snowflake as a “quality, but premium‑priced” name, with some estimates putting intrinsic value 30–40% below the market price. TechStock²
At the same time, brokers that live in the land of relative multiples and AI optionality are still mostly bullish:
- MarketBeat cites an average 12‑month price target around $275, with a range roughly $210–325 and an overall “Moderate Buy” rating. [30]
- Benzinga’s compilation pegs consensus near $276, with 39 analysts covering the stock, a high target at $325 and the low in the low‑$220s. [31]
Taken together, Wall Street analysts are effectively saying:
- “We still see 20–30% upside over the next year from around $223, if Snowflake delivers on ~27–30% revenue growth and FCF margins near 25%.” TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2
But independent valuation models are saying:
- “That upside is already priced in; the stock may be materially overvalued if growth or margins disappoint.” [32]
That tension is exactly what’s playing out day‑to‑day in the share price.
4.3. Technical and quant signals heading into December 10
Quant‑driven sites like CoinCodex currently paint a cautious short‑term picture:
- Spot price used: roughly $222–223.
- Forecast for December 10: about $225.31, implying a 1.2% bounce from current levels.
- Five‑day forecast: drifting down towards $215–219, with an average 5‑day target around $215.47. [33]
- One‑year algorithmic target: a very bearish $85.81, implying massive downside — again, purely model‑based and highly speculative. [34]
Technically, CoinCodex’s indicator stack shows: [35]
- 50‑day simple moving average (SMA): ~$250.73
- 200‑day SMA: ~$206.03
- Most short‑ and medium‑term moving averages flashing SELL, with only the 200‑day average acting as a longer‑term support level.
- 14‑day RSI near 42, which is neutral‑to‑slightly‑oversold rather than in panic territory.
So Snowflake is:
- Below its 50‑day and 100‑day trend lines → near‑term trend under pressure.
- Above the 200‑day → long‑term uptrend still intact… for now.
Again, these are tools, not prophecies. But traders watching the open on December 10 will care a lot about whether SNOW continues to hold the $220 area that marked Tuesday’s intraday low and sits not far above that 200‑day SMA.
5. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10, 2025
Here’s the pre‑market checklist if you’re tracking Snowflake into Wednesday’s U.S. open.
5.1. Price levels: $220 support vs $235–240 resistance
Based on the last few sessions: [36]
- Immediate support:
- Tuesday’s intraday low around $220
- The 200‑day SMA near $206, if selling really accelerates
- Near‑term resistance:
- The mid‑$230s, where shares traded shortly after the post‑earnings gap down
- The former support zone around $235–$245 from before the December 4 sell‑off
A firm bid above $220 in pre‑market trading would suggest that dip‑buyers and institutions are still defending the name. A decisive break below $220 — especially on high volume — would signal that the post‑earnings digestion isn’t over.
5.2. Macro backdrop: all eyes on the Fed
Snowflake doesn’t trade in a vacuum. High‑multiple AI and software names are very sensitive to interest‑rate expectations:
- Markets are heading into a December 10 Federal Reserve decision, with futures implying an ~88% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut, according to CME FedWatch cited by recent coverage. [37]
- Broad U.S. indexes closed slightly lower on Tuesday as traders “pumped the brakes” ahead of that decision; S&P and Dow slipped, while the Nasdaq eked out a small gain. [38]
If futures wobble on Wednesday morning — or if bond yields jump — Snowflake and other long‑duration growth stocks could see exaggerated moves, regardless of company‑specific news.
5.3. Follow‑through on Ataccama and AI narrative
Don’t be surprised if:
- Analysts publish overnight or pre‑market notes updating their Snowflake models for the Ataccama investment and reiterating (or tweaking) their AI thesis.
- Management, partners, or Ataccama itself push more content, demos or joint webinars promoting “trusted AI‑ready data” on Snowflake. [39]
The more the market sees Snowflake as infrastructure for AI (data, governance, trust) rather than “just another cloud warehouse,” the easier it is to justify premium multiples — especially if growth stabilizes in the high‑20s and FCF margins stay around 25%.
5.4. Additional SEC filings or insider chatter
Given the cluster of Form 144 filings and earlier director sales worth about $11.7 million reported in recent days, traders will watch: [40]
- Whether more Form 4 or Form 144 notices drop before or during Wednesday’s session
- Whether financial media continue to frame these as bearish signals, or normalize them as ongoing compensation‑related selling
If the only new “news” is a continuation of small, planned insider sales, their impact should fade. If a larger, unexpected sale appears, that could add fresh pressure.
5.5. No major Snowflake‑specific events on the calendar
According to Snowflake’s investor relations events page, the big scheduled catalysts — Q3 earnings on December 3 and a UBS technology and AI conference appearance on December 4 — are already behind us. [41]
The next major scheduled catalyst is expected to be Q4 FY26 earnings around March 4, 2026, based on earnings calendars. [42]
So for now, the stock is likely to trade on sentiment, macro, and incremental AI/partnership news rather than fresh guidance.
6. Big Picture: What All This Means for Snowflake Investors
By the time the market opens on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, here’s the distilled version:
- Price action: Snowflake closed Tuesday around $222.60, modestly down on the day, and was flat in after‑hours trading, suggesting no sudden shock overnight. [43]
- Fundamentals: The core business is still growing high‑20s %, with 125% net revenue retention, $7.88B in RPO, hundreds of million‑dollar customers, and targeted 25% FCF margins — a rare combo in software. [44]
- Narrative risk: Growth deceleration and slimmer Q4 margin guidance have forced a valuation reset, especially for a stock trading at high‑teens price‑to‑sales. [45]
- Flows:
- Insiders are selling small amounts via planned programs.
- Institutions like Natixis, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Ossiam have been significantly increasing positions, according to recent filings. [46]
- AI strategy: The Ataccama investment strengthens Snowflake’s story as the trusted data layer for AI, adding to its Anthropic, AWS and Gemini partnerships. [47]
- Market mood: Analysts are, on average, cautiously bullish to very bullish, with price targets clustered around $270–290, while several independent valuation frameworks and quant models are much more skeptical. Simply Wall St+4TechStock²+4MarketBeat+4
None of this is investment advice, of course. But if you’re watching Snowflake into the December 10 open, the key question isn’t “Is this a good company?” — the numbers and partnerships mostly answer that.
The real question is: does the current price in the low‑$220s properly balance slowing (but still strong) growth, rich valuation, and enormous AI optionality?
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. simplywall.st, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.streetinsider.com, 14. www.stocktitan.net, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.crn.com, 22. www.ataccama.com, 23. www.snowflake.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. investors.snowflake.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. simplywall.st, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. simplywall.st, 33. coincodex.com, 34. coincodex.com, 35. coincodex.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. fortune.com, 38. 247wallst.com, 39. www.snowflake.com, 40. www.stocktitan.net, 41. investors.snowflake.com, 42. www.investing.com, 43. www.investing.com, 44. investors.snowflake.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.marketbeat.com, 47. www.reuters.com
