Published: 10 December 2025 — Not financial advice.
Northern Star share price snapshot: near record highs after a huge year
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST), now Australia’s largest listed gold miner, is trading close to record territory.
- Latest price (ASX, intraday 10 Dec 2025): about A$26.7 per share. [1]
- Day range: roughly A$26.19–26.75. [2]
- 52‑week range:A$15.06–27.99, putting today’s level just below the all‑time high. [3]
- Market cap: around A$38 billion, cementing its place in the ASX 50. [4]
Over the past year, Northern Star’s total return has been spectacular:
- ~56% one‑year return and ~71% year‑to‑date gain according to Yahoo Finance’s performance metrics. [5]
Gold’s blistering run has helped. Recent commentary notes gold in Aussie dollars around A$4,200 per ounce this week, after hitting more than 50 record highs in 2025 — a serious tailwind for any unhedged gold producer. [6]
On fundamentals:
- P/E ratio: ~23–24x trailing earnings. [7]
- Dividend yield: about 2.0–2.1%, modest but slightly ahead of the ASX gold peer average. [8]
- Price/book: around 2.5–3.3x, implying a quality premium to the sector. [9]
In other words: the market already prices Northern Star as a “grown‑up” global gold major, not a speculative digger.
Fresh FY26 exploration update: A$225m budget and big hits across all hubs
The big near‑term story is exploration.
On 5 December 2025, Northern Star released a 73‑page FY26 exploration update, laying out plans to spend about A$225 million on exploration in FY26, roughly in line with FY25’s already hefty exploration outlay. [10]
Key takeaways:
- Budget: ~A$225m FY26 exploration spend across:
- Kalgoorlie (KCGM + regional),
- Yandal (Jundee, Thunderbox),
- Pogo (Alaska), and
- the Hemi development area in the Pilbara. [11]
- New discoveries and extensions:
- At Kalgoorlie, drilling at Fimiston South has pushed mineralisation about 800m below current resource shells, supporting future underground options. [12]
- The “Golden Goose” target north of Mt Charlotte has returned broad mineralised zones and attractive grades, indicating a new resource area. [13]
- At Hercules, near‑mine drilling produced multiple thick high‑grade intersections, reinforcing the potential for mine‑life extension and higher‑grade mill feed. [14]
- At Jundee in the Yandal hub, drilling has hit very high‑grade “shoots” (truly nose‑bleed grades in places), extending known lodes like Deakin and Barton. [15]
- At Thunderbox, the Wonder West area is evolving into a new high‑grade opportunity less than a kilometre from existing underground workings. [16]
- At Pogo (Alaska), the Star prospect and Central Link areas continue to produce thick, high‑grade intercepts analogous to the main Pogo lodes, suggesting room for significant resource growth. [17]
Independent coverage (Proactive Investors, analysis from DiscoveryAlert, and multiple trade outlets) emphasises two points:
- The exploration is near existing infrastructure, and
- Northern Star’s cost of added resources is extremely low — around A$19 per ounce, versus an industry range often A$25–50/oz for major producers. [18]
Low discovery cost near existing mills is basically the mining equivalent of finding extra rooms in a house you already own.
FY25 results and FY26 guidance: big cash generation, even bigger capex
Fiscal 2025 (year to 30 June 2025) was a transition year: high spending plus high cash flow.
From the FY25 results:
- Operating cash flow: around A$3.0 billion, up strongly on FY24 thanks mostly to a higher realised gold price. [19]
- Investing cash flow: about A$1.5 billion out, including:
- ~A$1.1b on plant and equipment (notably the KCGM mill expansion),
- ~A$0.9b on mine development, and
- ~A$255m on exploration. [20]
- De Grey (Hemi) acquisition:
- Treated largely as an asset acquisition, with roughly A$4.8b allocated to exploration & evaluation assets.
- Northern Star also acquired about A$558m in cash and A$105m in term deposits from De Grey’s balance sheet. [21]
- Shareholder returns FY25:
- ~A$559m of dividends,
- A$131m spent on an on‑market buy‑back, which was completed during the year. [22]
- Dividend: final A$0.30 per share, fully franked, consistent with the stated policy of paying 20–30% of “cash earnings”. [23]
From a valuation angle, it’s useful that Northern Star is now throwing off enough cash to fund growth + pay dividends + buy back shares while still maintaining a very modest leverage profile.
FY26 guidance
The company’s FY26 outlook, reaffirmed in both the FY25 results and the Q1 FY26 quarterly, looks like this: [24]
- Gold sold:1.7–1.85 million ounces (up from FY25 levels).
- All‑in sustaining cost (AISC):A$2,300–2,700/oz, with costs weighted to the high end in early quarters as shutdowns and growth‑capex hit, then trending lower through FY26.
- Growth capex FY26:
- KCGM:
- A$500–550m operational growth capex,
- A$530–550m for the mill expansion project,
- A$315–370m for “operational readiness” (tailings expansion, new power station, camp, etc.).
- Yandal:A$300–310m, especially Bannockburn and Orelia open pits to feed a 6Mtpa Thunderbox mill.
- Pogo:US$70–80m for underground development and throughput improvements.
- Hemi development:A$140–150m pre‑FIDs engineering and long‑lead items.
- KCGM:
Add it up and you get multi‑billion‑dollar spend through FY26–28, designed to push Northern Star into the 2.0–2.5Moz per year production league later this decade. Fitch explicitly models production around 2Moz once KCGM ramps, potentially climbing towards 2.5Moz with Hemi. [25]
Q1 FY26 operations: solid volumes, capex‑heavy cash flow
The September 2025 quarter (Q1 FY26) gives an early read on how that guidance is tracking. Northern Star reported: [26]
- Gold sold:381,055 oz
- Group AISC:A$2,522/oz
By hub:
- Kalgoorlie: 203koz @ AISC ~A$2,474/oz
- Yandal: 113koz @ AISC ~A$2,778/oz
- Pogo: 65koz @ AISC ~US$1,453/oz
Mining and milling rates were broadly in line with plan, but growth capex was heavy:
- Mine operating cash flow: ~A$696m
- Net mine cash flow (after growth capex): only A$183m, with Kalgoorlie specifically showing a net outflow thanks to huge spends on the KCGM expansion. [27]
Operationally, though, nothing screams “off‑the‑rails”. The story is textbook: cash coming out of existing assets is being ploughed into bigger future production.
25‑year renewable power deal: decarbonising KCGM and stabilising costs
One of the most significant strategic moves this month doesn’t involve gold at all – it’s about electricity.
Northern Star has signed a 25‑year power purchase agreement (PPA) with independent power producer Zenith Energy to supply renewable‑heavy power to the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) operation. [28]
Key features of the project:
- Generation mix:
- 256 MW of wind,
- 138 MW of solar PV,
- 138 MW / 300 MWh battery energy storage system (BESS).
- Zenith will fund, build, own and operate the renewable assets; Northern Star is primarily a long‑term offtaker. [29]
- The system is expected to cover around 70% of KCGM’s power needs with renewables once fully ramped, with a joint‑venture thermal plant (about 120 MW) providing backup and grid stability. [30]
This project comes on top of existing renewable builds at Jundee and Carosue Dam, and sits neatly under Northern Star’s target to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 35% by 2030 on the way to a “net‑zero ambition” for operational emissions by 2050. [31]
From an investor’s perspective, the PPA matters for two reasons:
- Cost visibility: Locking in long‑term energy pricing can soften the blow from volatile diesel and gas prices in Western Australia.
- Risk profile: ESG‑conscious capital increasingly prefers miners with credible decarbonisation pathways; this deal makes Northern Star’s “green story” much more tangible.
Simply Wall St and related coverage explicitly frame the PPA as a potential “narrative upgrade” for Northern Star, though they also point out that the real valuation swing factors remain project execution and AISC control. [32]
Copper optionality: the Alaska Range joint venture with PolarX
Northern Star is quietly adding a copper growth option through a joint venture with PolarX (ASX:PXX) on the Alaska Range project.
The deal terms: [33]
- Northern Star can earn up to 70% of the project by spending US$39m (≈A$60m) over about five years, via staged payments and funding of exploration and pre‑feasibility work.
- PolarX retains operatorship in the early phases, with technical support from Northern Star.
- The project already hosts defined resources at Caribou Dome (high‑grade copper + silver) and Zackly (copper‑gold‑silver skarn), with a prior scoping study suggesting robust economics at mid‑range copper and gold prices.
Australian commentary has dubbed this Northern Star’s “$60m hunch” — a relatively small cheque for NST that could become a meaningful copper leg later in the decade if drilling delivers. [34]
For now, Alaska Range looks like option value rather than a core investment thesis driver, but it does mark Northern Star’s gradual evolution from pure‑gold to gold‑plus‑copper exposure.
Credit quality and balance sheet: Fitch likes what it sees
On 4 December 2025, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Northern Star’s ‘BBB‑’ long‑term issuer rating with a Stable outlook, and kept its US‑dollar senior unsecured notes at the same rating. [35]
Fitch’s reasoning (paraphrased):
- Strengths:
- Large, diversified portfolio of mines in Tier 1 jurisdictions – Australia and the US.
- 22.3Moz of ore reserves, supporting roughly 14 years of mine life at FY25 production rates.
- Strong liquidity and low leverage even while spending heavily on growth capex. [36]
- Risks:
- Elevated capex through FY26–FY28, mainly at KCGM and Hemi.
- AISC pressure from inflation, higher royalties and big underground development programs.
Fitch models EBITDA leverage rising from ~0.4x in FY25 to about 1.1x in FY28, still comfortably below the 3.3x level where a downgrade would be considered. [37]
The rating effectively blesses Northern Star as a “investment‑grade growth story”: aggressive on capex, but not reckless on debt.
Ownership flows: stake sales, overhangs and institutional rotation
2025 has also seen some chunky moves in the share register.
- Gold Fields stake sale: reports in September indicated that South African gold major Gold Fields would look to sell roughly 49.3 million NST shares, a stake worth around A$1.1 billion at recent prices, inherited through its acquisition of Gold Road Resources (which previously held De Grey shares). [38]
- Other big holders trimming:
MarketIndex data show large global institutions — BlackRock, JPMorgan, State Street, VanEck — reducing or exiting big lines in NST over 2025. For example, JPMorgan and affiliates dumped about 129 million shares in October, while BlackRock cut its holding from just over 10% to about 9.2% in November. [39]
TS2 and other coverage interpret this as:
- A short‑term supply overhang at times, but
- Also a sign that Northern Star is now a core name in global gold and Australian equity portfolios, with new buyers happy to absorb blocks even at much higher prices than a year ago. TechStock²+1
The fact the share price keeps drifting towards record highs despite heavy selling from large holders suggests strong underlying demand.
Valuation: what do analysts and models expect?
Different forecasters, different answers. As of 10 December 2025, the picture looks roughly like this:
Broker & Wall Street targets
- TipRanks (13 analysts, last 3 months):
- Average 12‑month target:A$28.40
- High:A$35.38
- Low:A$15.57
That implies about 8% upside from a reference price of A$26.33. [40]
- TradingView consensus:
- Average target: around A$29.0
- Range:A$18–35.15 per share. [41]
Simply Wall St’s running valuation work has oscillated over the year — at one point arguing NST was “about 49% undervalued” with a DCF fair value around A$46 per share, but more recent commentary leans toward “modest upside rather than deep value” after the big 2025 rerating. [42]
Quant & technical models
- StockInvest (short‑term technical model):
- Sees NST in a strong rising trend but recently pulling back.
- Projects ~24% potential upside over three months, with a 90% confidence band ending between roughly A$31–34.
- Notes a near‑term sell signal from MACD but a general buy from the mix of long‑ and short‑term moving averages; stop‑loss suggested around A$24.24. [43]
- TradingEconomics (macro‑statistical model):
- Forecasts NST at about A$25.78 by the end of this quarter and A$24.20 in a year — i.e., modest downside from current levels. [44]
In short:
- Human analysts: lean to single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from here, treating NST as a quality growth name fairly close to fair value.
- Pure quant models: mildly disagree with each other, ranging from strong near‑term upside to mild longer‑term pullback.
The one thing they share? None of them think NST is a “lottery ticket” anymore; it’s a rerated blue‑chip miner whose future returns will probably rely heavily on gold prices and project delivery.
Macro backdrop: gold boom, but hedging mutes some upside
The 2025 gold backdrop is unusually bullish:
- Gold has set dozens of record highs in Aussie dollars; one recent commentary puts the price around A$4,208/oz. [45]
- Drivers include:
- Expectations that the US Federal Reserve is moving toward cuts in 2026,
- Geopolitical tensions sustaining safe‑haven demand, and
- Ongoing central‑bank gold buying, especially in emerging markets. TechStock²+1
TS2’s synthesis of the research points out an important nuance: Northern Star still carries a hedge book of about 1.275Moz at roughly A$3,309/oz, which means a meaningful chunk of future production is pre‑sold at well below spot prices, though the hedge book is expected to run down over time. TechStock²+1
Hedges:
- Protect downside if gold sells off hard,
- But cap upside while gold is on a tear.
Investors who are buying NST as a pure way to “chase the gold spike” need to remember that some of that spike is already contractually sacrificed.
Key risks investors are watching
Even with investment‑grade credit, a great exploration pipeline and green‑energy headlines, there are real risks embedded in Northern Star’s story:
- Megaproject execution (KCGM & Hemi)
- Combined, they represent many billions of dollars in capital over the next several years.
- Any cost over‑runs, delays, or weaker‑than‑expected grades could hit returns and flatten the production growth narrative. [46]
- Cost inflation & AISC volatility
- Group AISC is already above A$2,500/oz in Q1 FY26, with labour, energy and contractor costs rising in WA and Alaska. [47]
- Hedge book opportunity cost
- While it reduces earnings volatility, it also means Northern Star doesn’t fully participate in every leg higher in the gold price over the next few years. TechStock²+1
- Gold price risk
- The current environment is extremely favourable: low real yields, high geopolitical risk, central bank buying.
- A regime shift — faster disinflation, a more hawkish Fed, easing geopolitical tensions — could slamdunk the gold price and compress NST’s margins and P/E simultaneously. TechStock²+1
- Regulatory and permitting risk at Hemi
- Final approvals in the Pilbara, particularly around heritage, environment and water, will determine timing and scale. [48]
- Share overhangs from big holders
- Large block trades from global institutions and Gold Fields may periodically pressure the share price, even if fundamentals are unchanged. [49]
None of these risks are exotic — they’re the standard “boss‑level” problems for any global‑scale gold miner — but they’re exactly what will decide whether NST continues to outperform or just tracks the gold index.
Investment takeaways: how Northern Star looks on 10 December 2025
Putting it all together, as of 10 December 2025 Northern Star Resources is:
- A near‑record‑high ASX gold major with:
- ~A$26.5–26.7 share price,
- A$38b market cap,
- 2%+ dividend yield and strong total returns over 1, 3 and 5 years. [50]
- A company:
- Funding A$225m per year in exploration with industry‑leading resource addition costs,
- Building out mega‑projects (KCGM mill expansion & Hemi) that could take production into the 2–2.5Moz/yr bracket later this decade,
- Locking in a 25‑year renewable PPA that should cut carbon intensity and stabilise energy costs, particularly at KCGM. [51]
- Backed by:
- An investment‑grade ‘BBB‑ / Stable’ rating from Fitch,
- A strong balance sheet with low leverage despite heavy capex,
- High levels of institutional ownership and liquidity. [52]
- And viewed by most sell‑side and quant models as:
- A high‑quality, growth‑oriented gold major with modest additional upside from current prices — not a deeply undervalued orphan, but not obviously overcooked either, assuming gold holds somewhere near current levels. [53]
For investors, the core question isn’t “Will Northern Star survive?” — the balance sheet, credit rating and asset quality strongly suggest it will. The question is:
Do you believe Northern Star can deliver KCGM and Hemi on time and on budget while gold stays high enough to justify today’s premium valuation?
If your answer is “yes, roughly”, then the current consensus of single‑digit to low‑double‑digit expected upside plus a 2% yield might look acceptable for a diversified, large‑cap gold exposure.
If you think gold’s 2025 party is getting a bit wild and project risk is under‑priced, you’ll probably lean towards caution — or at least demand a better entry point.
References
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