Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) Stock Update: Price, Latest News and 2026 Outlook

Fortescue Ltd (formerly Fortescue Metals Group) remains one of the most closely watched mining stocks on the ASX, thanks to its combination of high dividends, record iron ore shipments and an increasingly ambitious green energy and “green iron” strategy. ^[1]

As at late morning on 10 December 2025, Fortescue shares were trading around A$22.45, giving the group a market capitalisation of roughly A$69 billion and cementing its position among the ASX’s heavyweight miners. ^[2] Over the past six months, the FMG share price has surged more than 40%, far outpacing the company’s mid‑single‑digit production growth and reflecting the strength of iron ore prices and renewed optimism around the stock. ^[3]

At the same time, Fortescue has reported its lowest profit in six years, trimmed some of its more ambitious green hydrogen projects, and doubled down on a more disciplined, iron‑ore‑centric growth plan with selective investments in green iron and decarbonisation. ^[4] This mix of strong share price momentum but softer earnings is why many analysts now view FMG as fully valued – or even slightly ahead of fundamentals.

Below is a detailed look at the current share price, latest news, earnings, analyst forecasts and key 2026 drivers for Fortescue Ltd as of 10 December 2025.

Fortescue share price today (10 December 2025)

Share price (intraday): ~A$22.45
Previous close: A$22.08
Day range (so far): A$21.96 – A$22.56
Market cap: ~A$69.1 billion ^[5]

MarketIndex’s ChartWatch “uptrend scan” also flags Fortescue at around A$22.45 with double‑digit percentage gains over its tracked short‑ and medium‑term periods, highlighting strong technical momentum into year‑end. ^[6]

Discovery Alert notes that over the past six months Fortescue’s share price has climbed 41.7%, reaching A$22.21 on 9 December 2025 – a rise that reflects resilient iron ore prices more than any step‑change in production or diversification. ^[7]

Short‑term quantitative models such as StockInvest’s forecast for 10 December suggested a “fair” opening price around A$22.32, broadly in line with where the shares are trading. ^[8]

Fresh news driving Fortescue stock

1. New green iron partnership with China’s Baowu (TISCO)

On 3 December 2025, Fortescue announced a major partnership with Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group (TISCO), a subsidiary of China Baowu, the world’s largest steelmaker. ^[9]

Key points of the deal:

The partners will trial hydrogen‑based, plasma‑enhanced metallurgy to produce iron and steel.
The technology aims to eliminate sintering, pelletising and coking, some of the most carbon‑intensive steps in steelmaking. ^[10]
The pilot industrial line is designed to produce up to 5,000 tonnes of molten iron per year. ^[11]
Fortescue will fund the project and use its Pilbara iron ore in the trials. ^[12]

For investors, this matters because:

It reinforces Fortescue’s push to move up the value chain from bulk ore to green iron products.
Success could open access to premium pricing from steelmakers trying to decarbonise.
It signals that, despite capex discipline, Fortescue is still willing to invest in leading‑edge green steel technologies.

2. First large‑scale BYD battery delivered in the Pilbara

On 1 December 2025, Fortescue confirmed the delivery of its first large‑scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) – supplied by Chinese battery giant BYD – to North Star Junction in the Pilbara. ^[13]

According to the company:

The installation uses BYD’s Blade Battery technology and consists of 48 storage containers.
It provides 250 MWh of storage and up to 50 MW of power for five hours. ^[14]
It will feed Fortescue’s Pilbara Energy Connect network, helping replace gas and diesel with renewable power.
This is the first step in a planned 4–5 GWh rollout of large‑scale storage systems across its operations. ^[15]

This project builds on Fortescue’s September 2025 deals with BYD, Envision and LONGi to secure batteries, wind and solar equipment as part of its goal to eliminate terrestrial Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030. ^[16]

3. FY25 Modern Slavery Statement (10 December 2025)

On 10 December 2025, Fortescue advised the market that it had published its FY25 Modern Slavery Statement, continuing a series of annual disclosures on labour and human rights risks in its operations and supply chain. ^[17]

For ESG‑focused investors, this is part of a broader pattern: Fortescue’s sustainability site also highlights modern slavery reporting in prior years and its externally reviewed Climate Transition Plan, which sets out how the company plans to reach “Real Zero” across its Australian iron ore operations by 2030. ^[18]

Combined with green iron and large‑scale storage, these steps are aimed at positioning Fortescue as a low‑carbon, ESG‑aligned metals and energy group, rather than a pure‑play Pilbara iron ore miner.

Earnings snapshot: record tonnes, weakest profit since 2019

Fortescue’s FY25 results, released in August, tell a more complicated story than the share price alone.

FY25 (year to 30 June 2025)

Iron ore shipments: 198.4 million tonnes, the highest on record, at the top end of the company’s 190–200 Mt guidance. ^[19]
Underlying EBITDA: US$7.9 billion with an EBITDA margin around 51%, according to company data. ^[20]
Net profit after tax (NPAT): US$3.37 billion, down from US$5.68 billion the previous year – a ~40% decline and the lowest profit in six years. ^[21]
Revenue: around US$15.5 billion, down roughly 15% year‑on‑year, driven largely by weaker iron ore prices. ^[22]
Dividends: full‑year dividend of A$1.10 per share, with a 65% payout ratio, the lowest payout level since 2018 but still high by global mining standards. ^[23]

Several factors weighed on the FY25 result:

Iron ore price normalisation from earlier peaks compressed margins across the sector. ^[24]
Operational challenges at the Iron Bridge magnetite project led to delays and higher costs. ^[25]
Fortescue booked a preliminary US$150 million pre‑tax writedown linked to scrapped green hydrogen projects in Arizona and Queensland, having decided the customer base was not yet developed enough. ^[26]

At the same time, the company continued to spend heavily on decarbonisation and green energy, including ~US$400 million in operating expenses for the energy arm and plans to invest up to US$1.2 billion over FY26 in projects aimed at ending diesel use by 2030. ^[27]

Despite the earnings decline, Fortescue emphasised that it has delivered more than A$45 billion in dividends to shareholders since inception, underscoring its commitment to high cash returns even through the cycle. ^[28]

Q1 FY26: strong start with lower costs and fresh funding

The September 2025 quarter (Q1 FY26) brought better news for operational performance.

According to Fortescue’s quarterly report and external coverage:

Shipments: 49.7 million tonnes, up 4.2% year‑on‑year and a record first quarter, slightly ahead of consensus estimates. ^[29]
Hematite shipments: 47.6 Mt, up 3.3% from the prior comparable quarter. ^[30]
C1 cash costs: about US$18.17 per wet metric tonne, down nearly 10% versus a year earlier, taking unit costs to their lowest level since 2020. ^[31]
Guidance reaffirmed: Fortescue maintained FY26 shipment guidance of 195–205 Mt, including 10–12 Mt from Iron Bridge on a 100% basis. ^[32]
Balance sheet:
- Cash balance of US$4.6 billion
- Net debt around US$1.9 billion
- Metals segment capex for FY26 projected at US$3.3–4.0 billion ^[33]

Fortescue also drew down a 14.2 billion yuan (≈US$2.0 billion) five‑year syndicated loan led by Chinese banks to support its decarbonisation program, locking in a 3.8% fixed interest rate. ^[34]

This combination of record volumes, lower unit costs and long‑dated, relatively cheap funding helps explain some of the renewed optimism around the stock in late 2025 – even as the company’s longer‑term earnings trajectory is tied to an iron ore market that many analysts expect to soften in 2026. ^[35]

Green iron and decarbonisation: from vision to early execution

Fortescue’s long‑term pitch to investors is that it will evolve from a pure‑play hematite exporter to a technology‑driven green metals and energy group.

Green Iron Metal Project in the Pilbara

Fortescue’s Green Iron Metal Project in Western Australia is a key part of that shift:

Location: Pilbara, Australia
Product: Green iron metal
Capacity: 1,500 tonnes per year in its initial phase
Capex: around US$50 million
Status: Under construction, with first production originally targeted for 2025. ^[36]

The plant uses green hydrogen to reduce iron ore to sponge iron, which is then processed in an electric smelting furnace to produce high‑purity green iron suitable for steel plants globally. ^[37]

However, Fortescue has now pushed back trial green iron production to 2026, citing a combination of market conditions and the need to align with customer demand. ^[38]

Strategic rationale

Company executives have repeatedly argued that:

Iron ore exports currently contain up to 40% waste material, much of which could be removed by shipping processed green iron instead. ^[39]
Australia’s abundant ore, high‑quality wind and solar resource, and existing export infrastructure give it a structural edge in green iron if it moves quickly. ^[40]

At the same time, competitors BHP and Rio Tinto have been more cautious about Australia’s green iron economics, arguing that local incentives remain weak – adding competitive and policy uncertainty to Fortescue’s long‑term plan. ^[41]

Energy transition projects

Beyond green iron itself, Fortescue’s decarbonisation push includes:

Large‑scale BESS roll‑out with BYD to replace gas and diesel generation in the Pilbara. ^[42]
Wind and solar projects, including large developments in Queensland and partnerships aimed at achieving “Real Zero” by 2030. ^[43]
Multiple EV and renewable energy supply agreements with BYD, Envision and LONGi to secure batteries, storage and generation equipment. ^[44]

After trimming its most capital‑intensive green hydrogen projects in Arizona and Queensland, Fortescue has signalled a more disciplined approach: fewer mega‑projects, more focus on cash‑generative, near‑term decarbonisation of its own operations and customer‑linked green iron trials. ^[45]

Analyst forecasts and valuation: consensus sees limited upside

Despite the strong share price performance, most broker research remains cautious on Fortescue at current levels.

Price targets

Across several major data providers:

Fintel:
- Average 12‑month target: A$19.30
- Range: A$16.66 – A$22.58 ^[46]
AlphaSpread (aggregating Wall Street estimates):
- Same average target: A$19.3
- Implied 15% downside from current levels
- Lowest target: A$16.67 (~27% downside)
- Highest: A$22.58 (roughly in line with today’s price) ^[47]
TipRanks:
- Based on 11 analysts over the past three months
- Average target: A$19.62
- High: A$21.73
- Low: A$16.17
- Implied downside: ~11% from a recent price of A$22.11 ^[48]

Discovery Alert’s 10 December investment guide summarises sentiment as 1 Buy, 9 Hold and 5 Sell (15 analysts), with a consensus target of A$19.02, implying about 14% downside from recent prices. ^[49]

In other words, while the share price has already enjoyed a substantial run, the average analyst expects FMG to trade somewhat lower than today’s levels over the next 12 months.

Iron ore and free cash flow sensitivity

A MarketIndex article drawing on Morgan Stanley research highlights the key macro driver:

Spot iron ore is around US$101/t, but Morgan Stanley forecasts an average US$94/t in 2026, a ~7% decline. ^[50]
Under these assumptions, Fortescue’s forecast FY26 free cash flow yield is:
- 5.0% under their base case
- 8.6% using current spot prices

That gap underscores how sensitive Fortescue’s valuation and dividend capacity are to the iron ore price. A relatively small move in the commodity can meaningfully change the investment case.

Yield and payout

Based on the FY25 full‑year dividend of A$1.10 per share and a share price around A$22.45, Fortescue’s trailing dividend yield sits close to 5%, assuming no change in payout. ^[51]

However, with profits down more than 40% year‑on‑year and management signalling a disciplined 65% payout ratio, that yield is not guaranteed if iron ore prices weaken or decarbonisation capex needs to rise. ^[52]

Key drivers for Fortescue shares in 2026

Looking beyond today’s price, several forces are likely to drive FMG’s performance over the next 12–18 months:

Iron ore price trajectory
- Fortescue remains overwhelmingly dependent on Pilbara iron ore. Analysts broadly expect a mildly softer price environment in 2026, which could compress margins and dividends from their recent levels. ^[53]
Execution on green iron and decarbonisation
- Delivering first tonnes from the Green Iron Metal Project and advancing the TISCO hydrogen‑plasma trial will be important proof points that Fortescue can translate vision into commercially viable projects. ^[54]
- Investors will watch closely for capex discipline, actual operating costs and customer willingness to pay premiums for low‑carbon iron products.
Cost control and Iron Bridge ramp‑up
- Maintaining C1 costs near US$18/wmt while ramping Iron Bridge towards its long‑delayed 22 Mtpa target will be crucial for sustaining margins. ^[55]
Balance sheet and capital allocation
- With net debt still modest relative to cash flow, Fortescue has room to keep paying attractive dividends. But heavy spending on decarbonisation and green metals could compete with payouts if conditions deteriorate. ^[56]
ESG and regulatory landscape
- Modern slavery reporting, emissions disclosure and community engagement all play into institutional investors’ willingness to hold the stock at a premium. Fortescue’s FY25 Modern Slavery Statement and Real Zero plan will be scrutinised for tangible progress, not just commitments. ^[57]

Risks to watch

While Fortescue has clear strengths, investors should be aware of key risks:

Commodity concentration: Unlike diversified peers, Fortescue is still heavily reliant on a single commodity – iron ore – and largely a single export market in China. ^[58]
Project and technology risk: Green iron, large‑scale hydrogen and advanced storage technologies are promising but unproven at Fortescue’s intended scale, and timelines have already slipped. ^[59]
Capex overruns and delays: Iron Bridge’s delays are a reminder that complex projects can run over time and budget, pressuring returns. ^[60]
Policy and ESG scrutiny: Mining approvals, emissions policy and human‑rights expectations in supply chains are tightening globally; missteps could hit Fortescue’s licence to operate or cost of capital. ^[61]

Bottom line: what 10 December 2025 means for Fortescue shareholders

As of 10 December 2025, Fortescue Ltd sits at an interesting crossroads:

The share price is near multi‑month highs, with a six‑month gain of more than 40% and strong technical momentum. ^[62]
The latest quarter shows record shipments and improved costs, while the balance sheet remains solid and dividends remain generous by global standards. ^[63]
At the same time, FY25 delivered the weakest profit in six years, and consensus analyst targets cluster around A$19–19.6, signalling that many professionals see little upside – and some downside – from current levels. ^[64]

For investors, Fortescue in late 2025 is essentially a high‑beta bet on iron ore prices and the company’s ability to execute its green iron and decarbonisation strategy without sacrificing returns.

If iron ore remains firmer than forecast and Fortescue can deliver on green iron while keeping capex in check, today’s price may prove justified.
If iron ore softens toward consensus forecasts and green projects under‑deliver, the curr

References

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) Stock Update: Price, Latest News and 2026 Outlook – 10 December 2025